Mathematician 057 | 09-05-2008 |
Friday May 9th
1 Account Bet
Ripon 6.35
VAN BOSSED
£100 Win
There is some 9/4 but I wouldnt worry too much about the price. There will be many that dont fancy him tonight and he will generally be about that price this evening. I think he is worth a Bet. Fascinating race between an in form sprinter thats fast improving through the ranks and some Quality juveniles who have better form but lack a run. I think VAN BOSSED will win.
Strange sort of day. Chester has been showing its Teeth all week but the Bets we have had at the top of the message have held their own and to this stage we have played Chester well if not too carefully. I have had a bet in the first race but I dont want to highlight any selections today other than the Account Bet. I just want to leave it as a one bet day. Saturday Tomorrow so lets hope we can go into Saturday with a winner behind us.
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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G
Looking back at Yesterday on the Whole we did all right. I always say "Follow the Top Paragraph". I know when meetings like Chester come along you ignore me and bet in most races. I wont criticise you as I do the same myself but I do know when I am overreaching and taking chances and I think the Top Paragraph on both days at Chester show I have chosen the right ones. SAVILE'S DELIGHT the account
bet was 3rd so we basically got our money back on the horse. Given a bit to do I felt but finished really
well. He lost by only 0.7 lengths and could easily have won that had he been ridden closer to the pace.
I took a chance as I dont like 15 runner handicaps and its fair to say that whilst he came very close to
winning he wasnt far away from being unplaced and that was the danger with just 3 places. In the end He ran a very good race. We got the Negative right for the favourite and we had a good run for our money without losing any of it. The other 3 Highlighted Bets ran well. SILVER WIND had some traffic problems but never threatened to win at a big price. SAVARAIN won easily landing the each way bet.
The Each way double started with a winner (Doctor Freemantle) and finished with a 2nd (Nemetan) and
that was a Breal level bet. Playing those two horses in each way doubles - and many of you may have done the same with Escape Route at Chester - was a pretty good idea all in all as they all won or went very close but never looked like losing money. I kept it Tight on Tuesday and Tight again yesterday and I have to be pretty happy with how yesterdays message turned out even if the Account Bet broke level and that stopped it from being a classic.
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C H E S T E R
CHESTER 1:45 - WARWICK INTERNATIONAL HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-100) 7f122y
3/1 Extraterrestrial, 4/1 Dhaular Dhar, 5/1 Joseph Henry, 6/1 Regal Parade, 8/1 Celtic Sultan, Russki, 16/1 Dream Lodge, Plum Pudding, 25/1 The Kiddykid, 28/1 Bazroy, 40/1 Heywood, 50/1 Gallantry
* This is an all aged handicap over 7f122y
* There has been 22 renewals of this race
* Seasonal debutants dont score well especially with 9 + runs
* Horses with 1 run this season won only 2 renewals since 1990
* I am opposing JOSEPH HENRY for this reason
* And the fact he is the only runner coming up in trip from 6f
* He was 5th in last years race first time out so I wouldnt be too bullish with him
* His stable also won this in 2001, 2002 and 2004
* Given all the evidence I respect him but dont select him
* DHAULAR DHAR won this race last year
* I believe he did that as he had ran the previous day and was very fit
* This year his 34 day absence concerns me
* The vast majority of winners had a recent run
* BAZROY is rejected absent 55 days
* DREAM LODGE has been absent 48 days
* HEYWOOD has been absent 36 days
* Horses that had 2 or more runs that season but failed to place were poor
* Horses not 1-2-3-4-5 last time when 2 + runs that year and 15 +days absence were 0-80
* Unless very fit - they need to be in better form
* HEYWOOD - GALLANTRY -DREAM LODGE - BAZROY fail that
* Do not make the mistake of thinking stalls 1-2-3 are best
* In this race and at this trip they are the Worst Draws to have
* DHAULAR DHAR - DREAM LODGE - JOSEPH HENRY are drawn 1-2-3
* In the last 6 renewals of this race the 18 placed horses had these draws
* 10 4 8 12 6 5 5 6 3 15 9 5 5 6 12 3 13 14
* Doesnt help us with Low drawn horses but High drawn can not be seen as negatives
* This is because low drawn find trouble in running as its longer to the bend
* PLUM PUDDING should find this trip too sharp
* There looks to be 4 main runners here
* EXTRATERRESTRAIL - REGAL PARADE - THE KIDDYKID - RUSSKI - CELTIC SULTAN
* RUSSKI is improving and could have a say but He just may find this too hard
* EXTRATERRESTRAIL and REGAL PARADE come from the Thirsk Hunt Cup
* The Hunt Cup provided the 2004 and 1993 winners of this race
* They finished 1st and 2nd at Thirsk and it has to be close between them today
* EXTRATERRESTRAIL has a penalty and only 1 of 11 penalty carriers won
* REGAL PARADE has every chance if he drying ground doesnt hurt him
* I think both these horses are entitled to go close today
SHORTLIST
CELTIC SULTAN (Selection)
THE KIDDYKID (Saver)
* THE KIDDYKID was beaten almost 10 lengths in last years race
* However he is now rated 13lbs lower
* I overlook the fact he has ran just once this season
* Surprisingly 2 past winners were 8 year olds with 1 run that season
* I like his wide draw and think he has been underestimated
THE KIDDYKID has to be backed at 25/1 I think in a winnable race but CELTIC SUN gets the verdict. He is
the only seasonal debutant but I can forgive him that as 3 recent winners won first time out and statistically
its far more likelier to go to a debutant than 1 run this year. Two non runners and Two rags turn this into a
winable 9 runner race and I really cant have a few more on the ground or through lack of fitness. What I like
about CELTIC SULTAN is that he only has to beat a 0-92 rated field. He is 100 rated and faces a 0-92 field
and his runs last Autumn show that he is more than capable of that. He won a better race at Newmarket back
in October when a 3 year old and he is clearly very useful. I like the fact he has ran well here on his only start
and likes the ground and as an unexposed 4 year old there is every chance he can outclass his rivals as he
has 8lbs more than any of them.
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CHESTER 2:15 - ADDLESHAW GODDARD DEE STAKES (GROUP 3) (COLTS & GELDINGS) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m2f75y
2/1 Achill Island, 3/1 Alexandros, 4/1 Tajaaweed, 11/2 Unnefer, 10/1 Latin Lad, 11/1 North Parade, 16/1 Sligo, 33/1 Midnight Muse.
The Dee Stakes is a Group 3 race for Male horses. Never been a great trends race over the years partly down so small fields and lightly raced horses. I have problems with Godolphins ALEXANDROS. Its not so much that all 3 horses they have ran recently all ran badly. Its not so much there is no evidence their stable is in form. What I dont like about him is that this is a 10f Group race and he comes from a 6f race and thats a massive step up in trip for a 3 year old especially in High class company. I have looked at every Listed and Group race run over 10 furlongs before. Thats since 1986 and anytime of year
as long as it was 10f and further. Horses that came from 6f races had a pretty poor 1-37 record. The only winner was back in 1992 when a horse called Bobzao won the Yorkshire Stakes in a small field. I dont see any reaso why we should give the benefit of the doubt to ALEXANDROS when there is not the shred of evidence their stable can be trusted. I would be keen to oppose him each way. UNNEFER comesfrom a Class 3 conditions race. Bearing in mind several here from Group 1 and Group 3 races it seems a big step up in class and as no past winner made it I wont ask him to. The Aidan OBrien runner sets
a puzzle. ACHILL ISLAND ran this season in a Group 3 in France and was well beaten. It was heavy ground that day and he lost by 16 lengths. Horses that ran that season but did not finish 1st or 2nd had a poor record in this race and you have to take the chance that he has improved from that. Its certainly a lot of improvement needed. You dont know what that took out of him. You dont know if he has trained on well. Even if all the doubts get reassurance the ground is so fast at Chester
and he has never been anywhere near ground this fast before and on breeding he doesnt look a horse you would instantly put down as a fast ground horse. This may be best left to TAJAAWEED. He won a Maiden and then went straight to the Racing Post Trophy last year where he was inexperienced and found it all to much. The record of horses in this race that have 2 career starts and that have their seasonal debuts as TAJAAWEED has is excellent. There has been 9 horses with that profile and 4 won. The 2006 winner (Art Deco) had that profile and so did Derby winner KRIS KIN back in 2003 who of course is from the same stable as TAJAAWEED. Two other winners a few years ago also shared the same profile so there is no reason at all why TAJAAWEED cant win this. In light of the negatives about the others and I would add the
Brian Meehan horse NORTH PARADE to the shortlist as well as he has the same profile. The two that stand out to me are TAJAAWEED and NORTH PARADE. and I think the Stoute horse looks like he has a bit more potential
Selection - T A J A A W E E D Each Way
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O T H E R C H E S T E R R A C E S
The ORMONDE stakes (2.45) looks a bit too competetive and it is another weak trends race. The only significant
trend I can highlight about this race is that the John Porter Stakes is a significant trial race for this. The John Porter has produced the winner of this race in 1992 , 1993, 1995, 1999 , 2001 , 2002, 2003 , 2005 and 2006 . If that happens this year then look to one of RED GALA - TEMPLESTERN or BAUER as these three come from that trial race. I felt RED GALA had the best chance on the ground. This is his chance to show he is a Group horse. He looked a potential Group horse when he was handicapping. His two runs in Group Class have been spoilt by soft ground. He is a Firm ground horse and he has floundered badly in the ground. I think he will beat the other 2 John Porter runners on faster ground. This is his chance and if Michael Stoute felt he was no better than a handicapper then why keep him in training as a 5 year old. He has done that as he thinks he is Group Class and on this ground for the first time and from the key trial race I think R E D G A L A may win this.
There is a 5f Sprint Handicap at 3.15 and it looks pretty tight. All my negatives did not help so I have only summarised the race. SECRET ASSET is out as the only seasonal debutant and no past winner came from a Nursery. Horses that had 13 or more runs struggled and only won 1 of the 22 past renewaks. This put me off LOOK BUSY and TEN DOWN. Horses that ran that year bit failed to finish 1-2-3-4-5 in that run had a 0-45 record and I have to wonder whether both NOT MY CHOICE and HADAF did enough first time out. Other than that I do not see any statistical reason why any of the others can not win. Dissapointing stats I felt.
The 12f Handicap at 4.35 has been won by STRETTON on his seasonal debut for the last two years. He is now a 10
year old and although I wouldnt personally be rushing to bet a 10 year old debutant he must have a chance. I have
found winners of similar races won by horses like that and he has far less weight than last year. I thought AINAMA
had a miserable profile. One run this year. Lost that by 43 lengths. He also has to come from an 8f race and in the 22 renewals of this race not a single winner came from 8f or shorter. Add to that a High draw and its clearly the odds compilers have shown this Gambling stable too much respect. I saw weakness in BASALT as a 4 year old absent
83 days. No 4 year old defied his absence before in this race and he also comes from 2 miles and none of the past 22
winner did that either. AUREATE also comes from 2 Miles which would bother me. BAJAN PARKES is not for me
with a Long absence. I didnt want MASLAK as 4 year olds in this race didnt score well and those with 9st or more
had a poor 1-54 record and he has topweight. LUCAYAN DANCER has issues from that draw. NEW STAR did not
do enough for me last time out. I was left with 5 horses that I could not find good enough reasons to oppose. My
shortlist would be STELLINO - MAN OF GWENT - INSPIRINA - CRUISE DIRECTOR - PRINCE SAMOS
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N O T T I N G H A M
NOTTINGHAM 2:30 - TOTEPOOL A BETTER WAY TO BET HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo,0-75) 1m6f15y
5/1 Taikoo, 6/1 Kiribati King, 13/2 Sea Admiral, 7/1 Tasheba, 8/1 Vice Consul, 10/1 Crimson Mitre, 12/1 Flash Of Colour, 14/1 Fairfield Flame, Georgie The Fourth, 16/1 Io, Stealth Project, 18/1 Rampant Ronnie, 20/1 Kryptonite, 25/1 Pepper´s Ghost, 50/1 House Of Tudor.
* This is a 3yo Handicap over 14 furlongs
* It is an extreme stamina test for 3 year olds at this time of year
* Nottingham has had 18 of these races
* There has been 36 similar races at other tracks
* You shouldnt get a shock in these races
* Nottingham's 18 renewals show 16/1 + chances 0-81
* Fillies have a 0-63 record in Nottingham's 64 races
* In the 36 other races Fillies also struggled badly
* Since 1992 they have a 0-119 record
* I have to oppose the following fillies
* FAIRFIELD FLAME - IO - GEORGIE THE FOURTH
* FAIRFIELD FLAME shouldnt stay by Oasis Dream anyway
* I will say had Dunlop's IO been a Male I would have tipped him
* In Nottingham's 18 renewals lightly raced horses dominated
* 17 of the 18 winners of this race ran 4-5-6 times before
* Horses with 7 or more runs had a 0-50 record
* FLASH OF COLOUR - KRYPTONITE fail that
* Horses that had 4 or more runs that year had a 0-45 record
* FLASH OF COLOUR - KRYPTONITE both fail that
* In Nottingham's 18 renewals horses with 3 runs were not great
* They had a 1-36 record and in 36 other races a below par 4-79 record
* VICE CONSUL is harder to discount being a Mark Johnston horse
* VICE CONSUL comes from a 12f maiden
* Horses with 3 runs that come from 3yo maidens are 0-24 in this race
* In 36 other races they had a 1-47 record and I would usually oppose him
* That sole winner though was Mark Johnstons Call Me George
* He won a Redcar 16f handicap at 33/1 with an identical profile
* He was also hammered last time as VICE CONSUL was
* VICE CONSUL has a poor profile but it has and can be overcome
* Only 1 of the 26 similar races went to a seasonal debutant
* He did not come via Nurseries so RAMPANT RONNIE is out
* HOUSE OF TUDOR didnt do enough last time
* PEPPER´S GHOST was beaten far too far last time
* CRIMSON MITE has a fair chance but I have a few problems with him
* Stamina being one as he is out of a Miler by a Dam who only raced at 5f and 6f
* His half brother is a 6f sprinter as well
* He also looks a bit exposed for a horse that comes from Maidens
* Only 2 of the 18 Nottingham winners came from Maidens
* Both had just 4 runs and 1 that year and he has 6 runs and 2 that season
S H O R T L I S T
* STEALTH PROJECT - TAIKOO - KRIBATI KING - SEA ADMIRAL
* TAIKOO has just run well in a Southwell handicap
* My main conern is horses coming from Southwell (AW) had a 0-32 record
* It would think he would stay as the Dam had plenty of stamina
* TASHEBA ran a nice race on his seasonal debut
* There are some doubts about both Trip and Ground
* The sire stayed 11f but as yet he has not had a 14f runner yet
* When he won his 2yo maiden it was going back in trip not up
* KRIBATI KING Should stay and no reason why he cant win
* I would worry about his draw in stall 15 though
* The vast majority of recent 14f handicaps heren went to low numbers
* SEA ADMIRAL has a strong profile
SELECTION
STEALTH PROJECT EACH WAY 14/1
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NOTTINGHAM 4:45 - BET TOTEPOOL AT TOTESPORT.COM APPRENTICE HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (4yo+,0-60) 6f15y
11/2 Kingsmaite, 7/1 Russian Rocket, 8/1 Registrar, 10/1 Double Carpet, Falmassim, Marmooq, No Time, Roman Quintet, 12/1 Bold
Argument, Montzando, Royal Choir, 14/1 Apache Nation, Greek Secret, 20/1 Edge End, 25/1 Hollywood George, Viewforth, 33/1 Night
Rainbow.
This is a 6f Apprentice Handicap and its the 12th renewal of this race. There has been a handful of similar races at other tracks and the trends in these races usually support themselves at all tracks. I think you can get a shortlist of ideal types here. The record of 4 year olds in these races is 1 winner from 94 runners so I am against them. Admittedly in this race last year that 4yo did win (Brunelleschi) but I think you have to take the view that as he won his next 3 races after winning this race he must have been very well handicapped. Therefore I am opposing all the 4 year olds in this race. I am taking out the Fillies as they have a 1-55 record in this race. I would really only want a horse that ran at least twice this year unless they are very well handicapped . Fitness appears a significant factor in this race. Seasonal Debutants do not score well. Horses with 1 run that season also have
unimpressive records (1-52) and the significant majority of past winners ran at least twice that season and a run within the past month. I am including FALMASSIAN who has one run this season on my shortlist as he is well handiccaped. I am taking out APACHE NATION who should find the trip hurts him. MONTZANDO is also out from that list as no similar races went to horses from sellers. KINGSMAITE is very fit and very well handicapped and in form and he must win if he transalates his sand
form to Grass. Thats a bif "If" though and he has no grass form in years that you could get any encouragement from. I feel that he probably appreciates the softer Southwell surface and that his legs may be vulnerble back on faster ground on turf much to the point that he is not going to be able to take advantage of his generous handicap mark. I also feel the Draw and the Trip may
just be the undoing of NO TIME today. My shortlist would be these 3 runners -
DOUBLE CARPET - MARMOOQ - FALMASSIM
Experienced horses like MARMOOQ that have a couple of runs that season and drop from 7f races have won 3 of the
11 Nottingham renewals and one came from Wolves as does MARMOOQ. However the other horses FALMASSIM and DOUBLE CARPET have significantly more back class and achievements.
DOUBLE CARPET who ran very well from a bad draw last time out. He has everything needed to win this race .
FALMASSIM is shortlisted despite 1 run this year as he is unexposed and well handicapped. He has dropped 21lbs since
the start of last season. Look at his Nottingham Course and Distance run in an identical 0-65 handicap last June. He was 2nd that day but he carried Topweight of 9st 6lbs in that race. Today he has bottomweight and 8st 6lbs. That shows how far he has come down the weights. He had his first run at Yarmouth this year and shaped well in 6th place. The form looks solid as the 2nd 3rd 4th have all won since. He is tipster owned and there has been a few quid for him and on his handicap mark he looks worth including in the staking for the race
SELECTION - DOUBLE CARPET with a saver on FALMASSIM
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E V E N I N G C A R D S
R I P O N
RIPON starts with a Maiden Auction. No past renewals. RAYVIN MAD is odds on and has two runs from
Peter Chapple-Hyams. The one thing that might stop him winning is that he concedes a lot of weight in this
race. Auction Maidens are Notorious for high weighted horses losing as they can not carry the weight. There
has been 152 similar races in May and no horse with 2 or more starts carried 8st 12lbs or more. My personal
rule in these races is Never bet high weighted horses unless there is a cast iron case to do so. I dont see the
Cast Iron case here. I certainly wouldnt bet COLEORTON CHOICE with 9st 1lbs when unraced. The problem
of course is that most lightweights are unraced and you dont know what side of useless they are. Anything
with lightweights thats well backed has to be interesting. If they are not much good then the favourite may
be able to concede the weight. I think he will be 1st or 2nd but I steer clear of highweights in these races at
short odds and I wouldnt want to bet him at odds on giving weight away to horses we cant fully assess.
RIPON 6:25 - SIS DISPLAY MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS SELLING STAKES (CLASS 6) (3-4yo) 1m1f170y
9/4 Cherri Fosfate, 5/2 Not Now Lewis, 5/1 Ja Myford, 8/1 Cape Dancer, 12/1 Cumae, Jevington Star, 14/1 Harlequinn Danseur, 16/1 River Gleam, 20/1 Buds Dilemma, 33/1 Call Of Ktulu.
* This is a selling race over an extended 9 furlongs
* Ripon have no past renewals of this race
* There has been 22 selling races in May elsewhere at 9f and 10f
* I find it significant that horses with 1 run that season were 0-55
* Poor horses and they dont seem to have built up the fitness to win
* JA MYFORD and BUDS DILEMMA are therefore rejected.
* CALL OF KTULU looks far too inexperienced.
* The 3 year olds do not score well in these races
* None won first time out or came from maidens like HARLEQUIN DANCER
* All 18 from 3yo handicaps like RIVER GLEAM does
* RIVER GLEAM also comes from 6f and no past winner did that
* I dont want the other 3 year old JEVINGTON STAR
* CUMAE is a penalised filly and I cant have that
* The penalty negates her sex allowance and fillies score badly anway
* In 22 races fillies with penalties had a 1-35 record
* I see this between NOT NOW LEWIS - CAPE DANCER - CHERRI FOSFATE
* I see CAPE DANCER and CHERRI FOSFATE as of similar ability
* I feel NOT NOW LEWIS is the best horse in the race
* His issue is he has to prove he can win on Grass as all his form is on sand
* I think he will as there is no reason why he shouldnt
* I dont know how far I can throw Gaye Kellaway but its further than I trust her
* I do think NOT NOW LEWIS is the best horse in the race
* I am not going to select him though for tactical reasons
* I just feel whilst the best horse this track doesnt suit hold up horses
* NOT NOW LEWIS is a hold up horse and may have to do this the hard way
* CAPE DANCER will be prominent and could steal a march on her rivals
* At 8/1 CAPE DANCER Looks a bit overpriced
* The best horse NOT NOW LEWIS is worth a saver
* CHERRI FOSFATE will be thereabouts and could spoil the party
* I am going with CAPE DANCER 8/1 with a saver on NOT NOW LEWIS
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HAMILTON 6:35 SITE SERVICES PLANT LTD CONDITIONS STAKES (CLASS 3) (3yo) 6f5y
11/10 Perfect Polly, 9/4 Van Bossed, 11/4 Exhibition, 20/1 River Ardeche, 33/1 Burnwynd Boy.
* This is a 6f Conditions race for horses that have not won a Pattern race
* Hamilton has only had 2 renewal of this race.
* There have been 36 of these races at other tracks
* This is a fascinating battle of different types
* PERFECT POLLY was 4th in the Group 1 Cheveley Park stakes
* She had other Group class form last year
* EXHIBITION was placed in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes
* This pair have mixed it in high class
* They take on VAN BOSSED who only has 3yo handicap form
* Many will see VAN BOSSED as outclassed today
* I dont - I see him as statistically the most likely winner
* Give me a fit 3yo handicapper any time over a horse like the favourite
* PERFECT POLLY is a filly and a seasonal debututant
* In 36 similar races these have a 1-46 record and struggle
* Its not just that - very few past winners of similar races had her profile
* Those that Came from handicaps as 3 year olds had too much for them
* Whether thats because they meet "better" horses having prep runs I dont know
* This race last year is a Good example
* Gosden had a pattern class debutant easily beaten by a horse with 3yo form
* The runner up last year was Northern Fling trained by Dancy Nicholls
* He had previously won the same Ripon handicap that VAN BOSSED has won
* In the 2005 renewal a 3yo handicapper won and the second interests me
* Obe Brave beaten a short head came from the same Ripon handicap again
* VAN BOSSED is fit and improving
* The record of all similar races strongly hint he can beat horses with better form
* I think VAN BOSSED will win this race
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HAMILTON 7.10 - BRAVEHEART NIGHT NEXT FRIDAY HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo,0-70) 1m4f17y
5/2 Princess Lomi, 3/1 Livvy Inn, 5/1 Legion D´Honneur, 6/1 Chanteuse De Rue, Sheer Fantastic, 14/1 Soxy Doxy,Pequeno Dinero.
* Not great trends in this 12f handicap
* A Non runner has also made it more unnatractive
* I did not want LIVVY INN as her last run in a maiden exposed her limitations
* She finished behind a 66 rated 4 year old that day
* The sad thing is that she was getting 17lbs weight and still couldnt win
* The favourite flopped in that race as well
* LEGION D'HONNEUR suffered the same fate behind a 58 rated 4 year old
* PEQUINO DINERO didnt do enough last time
* No problems with SHEER FANTASTIC despite an absence
* I just came down on the side of CHANTEUSE DE RUE
* She won a Wolverhampton handicap two runs ago
* From that you ofter see Mark Johnstons handicap winners win again
* She flopped last time but I suspect soft ground did that damage
* I think that was quite predictable and ignore that run and shes fanciable
* Her stablemate SOXY DOXY has also been backed at 14/1
* That looks an interesting market move
* I suspect Mark Johnston will win this
* Either with form choice CHANTEUSE DE RUE or Gamble SOXY DOXY
* SOXY DOXY may be the wiser choice
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HAMILTON 7.40
I would far rather bet TAWZEEA even at 4/5 than STRAWBERRY MOON myself. Fillies with 1 run in a 3yo maiden
were 1-44 in these races and I think STRAWBERRY MOON has a bit to prove and I prefer the more solid profile of
TAWZEEA. He ran into a decent horse first time this year in Magnitude that was thought fit to run in the 0-93 handicap
yesterday at Chester. Last time out TAWZEEA was 3rd in a 0-92 Handicap. I will take that any day of the week over a
once raced filly no matter how promising and I think TAWZEEA will win.
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