Monday 28th April

No Account Bet

It will be a slow start to a very busy week. Not planning a Message tomorrow at this stage. Will replace that with Sunday which can not be missed this week.

Tonight I have stayed with Windsor. I will be surprised if its a fast as they predict with the heavy rain thats been falling everywhere. You never get an easy Windsor card. The favourite should win the 7.40 race but no prizes awarded for that.

I am having just one bet myself tonight. Thats MULTICULTURAL 20/1 in the 6.40 race. Has not run in ages. Out of the handicap. Doesnt seem to have many people
fancying him and I can not promise you he will run well. That said he was favourite in last years race when having an impossible task. He was far too inexperienced. He was only beaten 6 lengths on ground he hated. Plenty of his opposition today have serious problems to overcome. He is not a 20/1 chance and he is worth an interest bet on the night. I shant be getting too heavy till Wednesday onwards.
Plan to finish both the 1000 and 2000 Guineas tonight ready to send early. Its later in the week when we will see any business but I have done what I cant at Windsor tonight and only want to highlight MULTICULTURAL at 20/1 and 16/1.

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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G


Saturday did not go well. The account bet WINGED FARASI ran a mulish race and was whipped after about 5 yards having seemed to encounter some sort of discomfort when leaving the stalls. I have no idea what happened there but I feel it was more a reflection of his mulishness than a factor that cost him his chance of winning. He ran a bad one and that was a dissapointment. The other two selections
failed to win. ANDRONIKOS may well need a smaller field and he could not impose himself on the race from the outside. The real sickener was ALWAYS BRAVE as he ran exactly as planned and beat every opponent except for a 50/1 outsider. It would have been a far better day had that not happened and it was not the right time to run into a 50/1 chance that looked to have no obvious chance.


This week is Newmarket Guineas Week. Next Week is Chester week. We have two big weeks now with some quality racing and timing has to be right. There will be a sunday message this week as the 1000 Guineas runs on Sunday. I wont be doing a Tuesday Message tomorrrow because of that . We have heavy rain at the moment and its a case of being ultra careful and watching to see how if at all the poor
weather affects things. Tough cards today and horrible conditions so I thought I would do a Night message for Windsor rather than an afternoon message at tracks that do not suit me.


W I N D S O R

WINDSOR 5:40 - CORAL.CO.UK MAIDEN AUCTION FILLIES STAKES (CLASS 5) (2yo) 5f10y

3/1 Beat Seven, 5/1 Premier Demon, 6/1 Daddy´s Gift, Meydan Groove, 7/1 Mount Ella, 14/1 Readily, 16/1 Lois Darlin, 20/1 Shiva Adiva, Sienna Lake, Souter´s Sister, 25/1 Fazbee, The Saucy Snipe, You´ve Been Mowed, 33/1 Four Green Fields, Happy Anniversary, Leaf Hollow.

Starts off with a Fillies Auction race for 2 year olds and there is very litte you can say here. Only BEAT SEVEN who was 4th on sand and LOIS DARLIN have run before. The rest are unraced. Its a race where a horses weight is based on their sales price and the cheaper the horse at the sales the less weight they carry. Windsor have had 7 renewals and there has only been 27 similar races run at this time of year. I would give experienced horses as small advantage but not one that demands the selection should have run before. I see weight as the bigger issue. I dont think the horses with 8st 10lbs or more have an easy task conceeding as much as 9lbs weight to lighter raced horses. In fact only 2 of the 27 races went to horses that had 8st 9lbs or more. If you take the runners with 8st 9lbs or more they won just 2 of the 25 races and None of these came at Windsor. No unraced horse carried more than 8st 8lbs in weight to win and thats where I would start with any negtaives. MOUNT ELLA - PREMIER DEMON and SIENNA LAKE are all unraced horses with higher weights than any have previously managed to win and I would reject those. Only 1 of the 27 winners started 16/1 or more so I would also be happy about ruling out the outsiders and bigger priced horses like Happy Anniversary - Leaf Hollow - The Saucy Snipe - Youve Been Moved - Shiva Adiva and Four Green Fields. I think I would take out FAZBEE drawn in stall 1. I think the favourite BEAT SEVEN is beatable. You cant be accurate without intimate knowledge of the unraced horses which we have not got but none of the 27 winners came from Lingfield as she does and horses that had 1 previous run yet failed to place as she did had a modest 3-72 record and only 1 of the 7 favourites that ran managed to win and she doesnt set a standard that I would be that worried about. Her draw may also hurt her. I dont really see trainer trends as a worthwhile avenue to follow in this race so I would suggest the best profiles come from one of these 4 runners - READILY - DADDY'S GIFT - MEYDAN GROOVE - LOIS DARLIN . Overall I think DADDY'S GIFT looks the best guess. I think he can beat the favourite and with few others looking particularly fancied I would chance him. DADDY'S GIFT is the selection.

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WINDSOR 6:10 CORALPOKER.COM HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo,0-75) 1m3f135y

2/1 Dubai Petal, 3/1 King Supreme, 4/1 Black Tor Figarro, 5/1 Sea Admiral, 12/1 Moment´s Notice, 16/1 Rosy Dawn, 20/1 Morestead.

* This is a 3yo handicap over just short of 12 furlongs
* Windsor has had 47 of these races in April and May before
* There are some tight angles that suggest a few things
* Horses that came from 10f or shorter did not score well when experienced
* When they had 7 or more career starts and came from 10f or shorter they were 1-83
* KINGS SUPREME - ROSY DAWN - MOMENTS NOTICE have that against them
* I am happy to oppose these 3 runners
* KINGS SUPREME comes from a 3yo claimer after all
* ROSY DAWN is a filly that may not stay
* Her sire has yet to breed a 12f winner and she has had 13 career races
* In 47 races fillies with 7 or more career starts were 0-42
* MOMENTS NOTICE has had 1 run this year and a 37 day break
* Horses that had 1 run and a months break were 0-18 in the 47 races
* I dont want MORESTEAD or his profile
* Horses with 1 run this year in a 3yo handicap have won this race
* However they were just 1 from 64 when having 5 or more runs
* I feel this is between BLACK TOR FIGARO - SEA ADMIRAL - DUBAI PETAL
* SEA ADMIRAL has 3 runs and comes from a 2yo maiden
* Horses with that profile had a 3-37 record and I give him a reasonable chance
* My biggest fear for him is heavy rain as he is bred for faster ground
* The faster it is the stronger his chance
* DUBAI PETAL has some questions to answer as a filly coming from a 10f handicap
* Fillies from 3yo handicaps had a 4-93 record
* When running within 2 weeks they had a poor 1-47 record
* When coming from a 10f handicap or shorter a poor 1-4 record
* Its far from impossible she can overcome that but it will be "testing" for her
* For me the horse with easily the strongest profile was BLACK TOR FIGARO
* I suspect DUBAI PETAL and SEA ADMIRAL will be his biggest threats
* BLACK TOR FIGARO has to be the strongest runner statistically

* BLACK TOR FIGARO around 5/1 is the selection

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WINDSOR 6:40 - D4 & CO HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (4yo+,0-80) 1m2f7y

4/1 Emperor Court, 7/1 Prime Number, 8/1 Rudry Dragon, Ryedale Ovation, 10/1 Quince, 12/1 Aegean Prince, Etain, Show Winner, 14/1 Just Two Numbers, Krugerrand, L´Homme De Nuit, Leptis Magna, Shake On It, 20/1 Multicultural.

* This is a 10f Handicap for 0-80 rated horses
* Remarkably Windsor has had just 6 similar races at this time of year
* There has been 138 similar races at all other tracks
* I think we can narrow this down based on the 138 races
* Horses that had tasted Group Class before had a very bad 1-100 record
* RUDRY DRAGON is the only runner that fails that
* Fillies having their seasonal debuts have a poor 1-96 record
* ETAIN has that against her and is also a filly coming from 3yo handicaps (0-32)
* I dont want AEGEAN PRINCE first time out from Richard Hannon's stable
* Hannons record in all aged handicaps over 7f or more in April and May is 1-123
* His runners usually need the run and are not wound up first time out
* SHOW WINNER is out with a 551 day absence
* No horse coming from a maiden had more than 7 months absence in 138 races
* No 9 year old that ran this season defied a months absence
* I dont see KRUGGERAND as being fit enough to win because of that
* There has been 2408 handicaps in April and May at 12f or shorter (Class 3-4-5)
* Horses aged 9 that ran that year but did not have a run within a month were 1-95
* Only Trinculo (1995 at Beverley over 6f) managed that - KRUGGERAND has to do it as well
* I am umcomfortable that RYEDALE OVATION has 1 run this year and 2 months break
* The ground is also an issue for him and I dont see his profile as strong
* Horses with 9 or more runs coming from a 3y0 handicap scored poorly (1-43)
* None had the absence SHAKE ON IT has and he also needs fast ground
* Horses that came from 8f handicaps Struggled
* When not racing within a month these horses had a 1-106 record
* LEPTIS MAGNA has that to overcome
* EMPEROR COURT has 3 problems for me
* Ground is an issue and so is the 31 day break
* His Draw in stall one will also take some overcoming
* Since 2003 Windsor has had 68 handicaps at this 10f trip
* Thats at any time of year and for any age group
* In 68 handicaps horses drawn 1 had a 0-63 record
* The following runners look statistically strongest
* Prime Number -Quince -Just Two Numbers -L´Homme De Nuit -Multicultural.
* QUINCE and PRIME NUMBER want fast ground
* I think there is every chance that it may be softer much as its hard to know
* My shortlist would be these 5 horses
* MULTICULTURAL - JUST TWO NUMBERS - L'HOMME DE NUIT -QUINCE - PRIME NUMBER
* If it looks soft take out QUINCE - PRIME NUMBER
* JUST TWO NUMBERS is unexposed and hard to rate
* My main concern about him is whether he stays well enough to win
* L'HOMME DE NUIT is impossible to rate with 3 German runs and 3 Hurdle runs
* Have a good look at MULTICULTURAL in this race
* He started favourite for this race last year and was beaten under 6 lengths
* His jockey said the fast ground was against him last year
* He came into last years race having had just 2 career starts
* None of the 138 winners had under 3 career starts
* He later showed ability in a season that was brief and interrupted
* The stable are in great form and he is drawn well
* MULTICULTURAL doesnt have much ground to make up this year
* Around 20/1 I think he has a big chance of winning this today

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WINDSOR 7:40 - AT THE RACES MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (3yo) 1m2f7y

Evs Checklow, 7/2 Drum Major, 6/1 Colorado Blue, 12/1 Cheeky Download, Gaia Prince, 14/1 Celt, Forget It, 33/1 Timber Creek, 50/1 Rockjumper, Teen Spirit, 200/1 Howe´s Jack.

* This is a 3yo maiden over 10 furlongs
* Windsor has had 40 similar races at this time of year
* There looks to be 4 no hopers in this 11 runner race
* I would also rule out GAIA PRINCE as no horse came from a 6f race
* Unraced horses have not done that well
* Unraced fillies have a 1-70 record in the 40 races
* CHEEKY DOWNLOAD is the only filly and as she is unraced she's out
* DRIUM MAJOR is the only other unraced horse
* He is trained by M Stoute who doesnt have a great record
* In the 40 races Stoute has a 0-13 record with his unraced maidens
* I dont fancy FORGET IT after being hammered just 9 days ago
* Horses that han within 2 weeks that didnt come 1-2-3-4 last time out were 0-138
* CELT may pop up but all the implications are today may not be his day
* He could well need the race - need further - or need a handicap mark today
* I wouldnt see past CHECKLOW or COLORADO BLUE
* COLORADO BLUE probably needed the race last time out
* He looks like he has to improve a bit to beat the favourite
* Has to be CHECKLOW from Jeremy Noseda's
* He was fancied and ran well in a warm Newmarket maiden at the Craven meeting
* He had a bad draw that day but ran with a lot of credit
* He has English and Irish Derby entries and he looks potentially better than these
* CHECKLOW should win and I wouldnt consider another bet in the race

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WINDSOR 8:10 - HAPPY BIRTHDAY YVONNE AND GEMMA HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo,0-75) 1m67y

3/1 Harlem Shuffle, 6/1 Pediment, 7/1 Bermacha, Golden Penny, 12/1 Bridge Of Fermoy, Farthermost, Highland Homestead, Trumpet Lily, 14/1 Dynamo Dave, Effingham, Miss Phoebe, 16/1 Rich Kid, 20/1 Summon Up Theblood, 25/1 Lawton.

* This is a 0-75 handicap for 3 year olds over a Mile
* Windsor has had just 21 similar races at this time of year
* Should be able to get a shorlist based on these 21 races
* Fillies did not score well and had a 0-53 record when running this season
* BERMACHA - MISS PHOEBE fail that
* Horsesn that had 1 race this year in a 3yo handicap had a 0-54 record
* BERMACHA - MISS PHOEBE - SUMMON UP THE BLOOD fail that
* FATHERMOST also has that to overcome
* Horses with 1 run that seasom that came from 8f or more were 0-60
* BERMACHA - MISS PHOEBE - - SUMMON UP THE BLOOD fail that
* HIGHLAND HOMESTEAD - GOLDEN PENNY also fail that
* Horses with 1 run that season that had under 5 runs struggled (1-40)
* DYNAMO DAVE has that against him
* Horses with 8st 12lbs or less seemed to lack the class in a 1-84 record
* All 44 Bottomweights also lost
* This puts me off DYNAMO DAVE and HIGHLAND HOMESTEAD
* Fillies with 1 race this season were 0-30 and MISS PHOEBE fails that
* Horses with 1 run this year were 0-32 when running within 2 weeks
* BERMACHA has that against her and no horse with 1 run that year was as exposed
* All 24 fillies that had 7 or more career starts lost another issue for BERMACHA
* No horse came from claimers to win these races
* RICH KID - BRIDGE OF FERMOY both have claiming form last time
* HARLEM SHUFFLE is a filly with 1 career race
* The issue with her is complicated
* Since 1992 at all tracks there has been 230 similar races
* Fillies with under 3 runs had a 0-21 record including 5 beaten favourites
* They have won at other trips though so its a judgement call
* Personally I would be inclined to look elsewhere as she is inexperienced
* She also has a long absence and steps up in distance
* LAWTON is ok statistically but looks outclassed and unfancied
* This leaves 3 horses that pass the above angles
* PEDIMENT - TRUMPET LILY- EFFINGHAM
* EFFINGHAM has had an injury last year and doesnt look fancied
* I will risk PEDIMENT as the selection

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