Wednesday November 5th

No Account Bet

1 Selection Today

Nottingham 2.30

Cocktail Party

Has to be a short one today. In fact its a 1 race message
but I am back to normal from tomorrow and around all day
today if anyone wants any other angles. This week rather
than a day off I have thrown in two short messages and
not sure if thats worked really. Having said that we have
a selection today that I think can win and if he does we
can move on to the rest of the week with a win behind us
and with some more detail in the messages. I think Cocktail Party is just a normal average strength selection and between 5/2 and 11/4 I dont see a better bet.

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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G

Just coming to the end of a quiet period. We had a good
winner on Sunday. That was followed with a Loser on
Monday and No Bets yesterday. I want to just play in
one race today. Said it would be a short message. I had to
sort a few things out for the weekend not least the Final
Flat day and the November Handicap. Also needed to
freshen up and work through some staleness and I have
done that now having not done long messages for a couple
of days now. In terms of the November Handicap I will
post some statistics on the message board tomorrow once
the declarations are out. Its not that hard a race this year. I think we have an Ante Post favourite that has a one of the weakest profiles in the race so we should be able to bet with confidence at decent odds in this race.

I think my jumps form has shown that the National Hunt
doesnt concern or intimidate us at all and it will be nice to have a change and a bit of variety as well. Around all day if anyone wants any angles or thoughts on the days racing.

In terms of today I just want to look at the Nursery over at Nottingham where I see an edge and see if we can get a winner before we go back to more standard messages tomorrow.


NOTTINGHAM 2:30

PINNACLE RACING NURSERY (CLASS 5) (2yo,0-70) 5f13y

2/1 Lisburn, 11/4 Cocktail Party, 6/1 Blackwater Fort, 7/1 Rio Cobolo, 8/1 Bold Rose, 10/1 Autumn Morning, 12/1 Pollish,

* This is a Nursery over 5f for 0-70 rated horses
* October and November has seen 99 similar races since 1993
* LISBURN has a profile that concerms me a lot
* She is a filly with a 40 day absence and well beaten last time
* She also has to drop down in distance and is hardly unexposed
* LISBURN comes out as a vulnerable runner to me
* Fillies like LISBURN absent a month were just 2-139
* Since 1994 fillies with that absence were 0-116
* In the 2-139 record horses with 7 + runs were 0-47
* LISBURN has 11 runs and looks exposed to be defying an absence
* Fillies with absences (2-139 record) fail other trends
* When beaten over 10 lengths last time the had a 0-64 record
* LISBURN fails that and was beaten almost 20 lengths last time
* The fillies with absences that dropped in trip as she does were 0-55
* Fillies with absences that came from Nurseries were 0-70
* Again LISBURN has that to prove as well
* She also has topwight of 9st 7lbs
* Fillies that had 9st or more with absences were 0-38
* I think there are enough doubts to take on LISBURN
* I dont want POLISH who is out of the handicap
* She is a filly that comes from a Maiden
* Fillies do win these races from maidens but none like her
* When they drop from 6f maidens they have a 0-66 record
* When they were not 1-2-3-4 last time out they were 1-86
* I think POLISH has too much to do on disadvantaged terms
* BOLD ROSE comes here as a filly with a 16+ lengths defeat
* Fillies beaten 10 or more lengths last time were 5-189
* When they canme from a 5f race they had a 0-65 record
* With under 8st 9lbs they had a 0-106 record
* AUTUMN MORNING also fails both those trends
* BOLD ROSE also has only 1 run since July
* She also lacks any form on the ground and looks bred for faster ground
* RIO COBOLO has to defy a 40 day absence but 15 winners did that
* However most horses that defy absences are runners from maidens
* Horses from Nurseries with over a months absence had a poor 2-123 record
* WIth 6 or more runs like RIO COBOLO they had a 1-73 record
* When dropping from 6f as he does they had a 0-43 record
* RIO COBOLO has a lot to prove for me
* I do like BLACKWATER FORT statistically despite 66 days absence
* Horses that have long absences score well when coming from maidens
* Horses that did that had a 5-26 record but there are a few doubts
* None did it on soft or heavy ground and none in this race
* None carried the weight BLACKWATER FORT has to do
* I would also worry about him on the ground
* He is American Bred and hasnt shown he can handle ground this slow
* What few runners his sire has had shown a faster ground bias
* If he handles the ground he is a danger but there are doubts

SELECTION - COCKTAIL PARTY

COCKTAIL PARTY has a strong profile as horse that comes from a 6f handicap with a recent run. She has experience. She has strong form on bad ground at this trip and her trainer says she wants cut in the ground. She was unlucky at Windsor last time when denied a clear run and watching the video she should have been 4th that day rather than 6th. On her previous race she won a 5f Nursery here over
Course and Distance on soft ground showing she excels in the identical circumstances she gets today. I think she has the best overall profile and faces horses with problems and I think she can make that tell from
what may also turn out to be the best of the draw.

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