T O N I G H T S R A C I N G

No Further Account Bet

Again not going for any Presentation awards tonight. I could increase detail and make it pretty as you want but it would detract from the content on Tuesdays Message and I want a clean slate for Tuesday with no interruptions once today has finished. Wont be messing you about many times this year with double messages. Just one of those days. We have a £25 EACH WAY bet to run shortly. I dont see a bet worth staking later so I will leave the earlier bet as the only one today.

Looking at Tonights cards I will just highlight a small each way double that could pay well. Not a risk free bet by any means but 10/1 or more if both win and I will be surprised if they did not go close. No strong stakes though. More of an interest bet and bets like this dont need large stakes.

Windsor 7.55 - Cape Colony
Sedgefield 6.10 - Mirage Dore

Each Way Double

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WINDSOR 5.25

* I would not have a strong view here
* I would not have selected the following
* SAVILES DELIGHT - ADANTINO (Age stats)
* LINDA GREEN - RYDAL MOUNT - KENS GIRL (Sex stats)
* EQUULEUS PICTOR (Fitness) or KEMPSEY (5f stats)
* Possibly KELAMON is the best alternative
* Nasty little contest though

SEDGEFIELD 5.40

* I dont fancy LITTLE JU a female coming from a Bumper
* March - June has seen 954 Novice Hurdles under 2m 7 furlongs
* Female horses from Bumpers have a 1-380 record which is awful
* LITTLE LU comes from a Listed Bumper but none did that anyway
* I would be inclined to look elsewhere
* CASH MAN tempted me with a great record from horses with double penalties
* He may just find different ground a problem today after his last run
* RICH LORD tempted me as horses from 4yo Novice Handicaps have a great record
* These horses have a 5-10 record in April in novice hurdles
* CASH MAN and RICH LORD strong positives
* LITTLE JU - SCHELM - are poor profiles.
* RICH LORD would be my choice

WINDSOR 5:55

* Given the choice of form horse MISS CHAMANDA or unraced ones
* I would marginally favour the unraced horses
* Hannon has the best record in these races
* HELIODOR - BUDDY MARVELLOUS are his runners
* I dont see the favourite as a good thing in an open race

SEDGEFIELD 6.10

* EGERMYSTER has a horrible profile as a mare with 1 run
* MANSONN LEDA has a horrible profile as a mare coming from a bumper
* MILL SIDE has a bad profile as an 8 year old with 2 runs down in trip
* COUNCILLOR JACK has a poor profile coming from selling races
* I could only select one of two horses
* MIRAGE DORE - PROFESSOR HIGGINS
* MIRAGE DORE appeals a lot and I see him as a strong e.w double horse

WINDSOR 6:25

* This race has been one of real shocks over the years
* If I applied my trends religiously I come down with 2 ideal runners
* MY SHADOW and BENCOOLEN
* With BENCOOLEN you carry the risk he is unfit from Roger Charltons
* WIth MY SHADOW the risk is whether he can translate sand form to turf
* Horses from 2yo maidens were 0-34
* ADVERSITY - THE WHICH DOCTOR Fail that
* The horses that came from 7f struggled as well (2-72)
* ADVERSITY - THE WHICH DOCTOR both fail that as well
* The 7f runners with 5 or more runs were 0-36 in this race
* DUSTY MOON - ARTSU - BONNY ROSE fail that
* These Horses with 1 run that year scored badly
* LEGISLATION - SUNDOWNER - SILVER RIME - ARTSY - MICKS DANCER
* Fillies like BONNY ROSE and DUSTY MOON scored badly anyway
* Maidens like INTERNATIONALDEBUT and MICKS DANCER are weal
* Statistically I would have to select MY SHADOW 8/1


WINDSOR 6:55

* 8F Fillies Maiden with only a few things to say
* I would oppose the unraced horses with an awful 2-140 record
* QUEENS SPEECH had a weak profile for me coming from a 3yo maiden
* With under 4 runs they have a 0-28 record
* With any number of runs they ae weak if failing to place last time out
* MEKONG MELODY is weak as well coming from 10f
* Its a guesswork game really but this pair and all unraced are rejected
* Best money see has been for CASILDA and FINNEY HILL both unraced


SEDGEFIELD 7.10

* DEUTERONOMY has to step up from 20 to 27f
* Did not like that profile but could not make him a big negative
* He falls more into the "Can not select him" rather than" negative" camp
* HALL OF FAME is in the same boat

WINDSOR 7.25

* This race has changed this year as its open to all aged horses
* When it was a 3yo only race Michael Stoute dominated winning 6 of the 20 renewals
* Would not want to oppose FRENCH RIVIERA myself

SEDGEFIELD 7.40

* FESTIVAL KING drops from 3m to 2m and has a seasonal debut
* Both those facors make his task tough
* He has also never jumped a fence before and I feel he is weak statistically


WINDSOR 7:55

* Middle Distance 3yo handicap
* Bit Messy statistically
* HERITAGE COAST fails 2 weak stats
* Horses from 2yo maidens are 1-38
* Fillies with 3 runs had a 0-15 record
* HERITAGE COAST may be opposable with that against her
* WANNAROCK also comes from a 2yo maiden
* He also steps up from 8f and I dont like that much
* HOUSE OF TUDOR also comes from a 2yo maiden
* Fillies with 1 race that season have a 0-17 record
* RIVERSCAPE and IO fail that
* LANDIKHAYA is out from a 3yo claimer
* Just 4 horses came out strong statistically
* Cape Colony - Title Role - An Scaribh -Zen Factor
* CAPE COLONY looks the fittest horse in the race
* He has just won a 12f handicap and the 2nd and 3rd won next time out
* I think it will be difficult to beat CAPE COLONY and he looks worth a bet

SEDGEFIELD 8.10

* I didnt like GO ON BE A LADY in this race
* Wondeed if this may be a bit quick for him
* The market suggests A BIT CHANCY is weak
* Nicky Richards is 3-6 with unraced Mares in these Bumpers
* If he was strong in the market later I would prefer him

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