Thursday January 17th


This E Mail has all 6 races at Southwell and 2 at Wolverhampton

Southwell has a split card in my view. It has 3 horrible small field puzzles at 1.30 2.30 and 3.30 that really offer more questions than answers. I did like the bigger field races at 2pm 3pm and 4pm and these are fascinating races. I have probably got all 3 races close to being right but whether they are quite right or not I dont know. Decent prices all 3 and It could be a case of hitting them
and getting all 3 right or just getting one bit wrong in each race and coming away with nothing.

Its a very attractive viewing card at Southwell and I like my message there . It has been a meeting that I have done a lot of work on and Hit very hard - but a meeting that has Hit back just as hard and presented a lot of challenges. I respect the card a lot today and the problems it presents so I have to go with the opening 2 races at Wolves tonight For my highlighted horses.

Todays Best Bet

Wolverhampton 6.50

COLEORTON DANCER

Very well handicapped. Last time out I gave him a chance but said in the message I really wanted him when he conceeded weight to inferior horses rather than recieved it from superior one. This happens today and he gets the chance to prove me right or wrong

Wolverhampton 7.20

I think TAPAS LAD will win the seller at 7.20. I considered him very strongly as an each way account bet tonight but I feel his price is just too short for that and he has missed the break both times he has run here. I still feel he will win tonight and happy to add him to the top of the message. He would be my second choice as a best bet today.

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TODAY' S RACING


SOUTHWELL 1:30 - SOUTHWELL-RACECOURSE.CO.UK APPRENTICE CLAIMING STAKES (CLASS 6) (4yo+) 1m4f

4/7 Alfie Tupper, 6/1 Nabir, 8/1 George Henson, 10/1 Aristi, Royal Axminster, 20/1 Finnegans Rainbow.

* This is a 12f Claiming race
* Southwell has had 51 of these races at this time of year
* Not a race that can be nailed down for several reasons
* I couldnt bet the twice raced GEORGE HENSON as horses with under 3 runs are 0-37
* He looks too inexperienced
* Didnt want ROYAL AXMINSTER aged 13 absent 11 weeks
* FINNEGANS RAINBOW has been absent a long while and isnt well weighted
* ARISTI wouldnt own the strongest profile in the race
* She is the only female in the race and no older mare has won one of these races
* That said few have tried to win and there has been some money for her
* I dont think you can rule her out completely
* ALFIE TUPPER has a 2lbs advantage on the figures ahead of NABIR
* The issue for ALFIE TUPPER is will he stay and how will be get on jumping from 9f ?
* He is also unproven on Southwell's surface
* Horses like him have made that 9f-12f jump but they dont score well
* I think there is a genuine stamina doubt - The siblings were sprinters
* Neither ALFIE TUPPER's sire or dam ran beyond a Mile
* His sire has only had 1 winner on sand at 12f or more and its a genuine doubt in my view
* With NABIR you have a stayer that has got form when last seen here
* He has been handicap chasing though and its very hard to know if his speed's been blunted
* Whichever you bet its a leap of faith
* If Market support came for NABIR and he was 11/2 or shorter I would suggest him
* If it didnt and he was weak in the market I would him alone and consider ARITSI

CONCLUSION

Tough call how strongly you can feel about opposing ALFIE TUPPER who does have cracks in
his profile. The market support for either NABIR or ARITSI will be crucial and the best backed of
this pair should be considered to be his main danger. I didnt fancy George Henson and dont have
him in my calculations. Wont go for a final selection.

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SOUTHWELL 2:00 - BOOK HALF TERM NOW @ PONTINS.COM CLASSIFIED STAKES (CLASS 7) (4yo+,0-45) 7f

100/30 Government, 9/2 Mr Chocolate Drop, 5/1 Desert Lover, 6/1 Kingsmaite, 10/1 Love You Always, Wodhill Be, 12/1 Astorygoeswithit, Fistral, 20/1 Cryptic Clue, Edin Burgher, 25/1 College Queen, 33/1 Bella Marie, Jaassey,

* This is a 0-45 Classified Stakes race over 7f
* Very poor horses - a few of which can be ignored
* Southwell has had 30 of these races and a further 15 at other tracks
* Fillies absent over a Month have a 0-73 record
* Thats why I a against BELLE MARIE and WOODHILL BE
* I am against the other filly COLLEGE QUEEN with just 2 runs since May
* CRYPTIC CLUE shouldnt be fit enough with 1 run since April
* LOVE YOU ALWAYS is rejected as an 8 year old absent 171 days
* There are no other strong angles - and no strongly fancied horses look weak
* DESERT LOVER has a decent chance on form but his draw in stall 14 worries me
* There has been 10 races at 7f since Southwell's surface was relaid
* The Draw Number of the 10 previous 7f races are these
* 3-6-5-2-6-4-1-6-3-8
* As none were drawn 9 or more - and 9 of the 10 drawn 6 or lower DESERT LOVER's stall 14 worries me
* Thats the only objection I have about DESERT LOVER because hes fine statistically
* EDIN BURGHER (stall 13) ASTORYGOESWITHIT (stall 12) also looks problematic
* ASTORYGOESWITHIT doesnt have much at all wrong with his chance
* Steps up from 6f but I havent a problem with that and depends how his draw helps/hurts him
* I will shortlist these 5 horses
* GOVERNMENT - MR CHOCOLATE DROP - KINGSMAITE - FISTRAL - ASTORYGOESWITHIT
* Dont know what to make of FISTRAL
* He has no track experience - limited 7f experience - and 3 trainers in his last 3 runs
* I expect it depends IF Peter Niven has improved him and if so by how much
* Also depends on how hurdling has affected him on his last start
* He is a dangerous lurker around 14/1 but surely too many doubts
* Had a look at a few videos
* Wasnt impressed too much by GOVERNMENT last time out
* Watched him the time before when held by KINGSMAITE who beat him comfortably
* KINGSMAITE has had 3 runs since a lay off and looks to be getting fitter by the race
* The issue for him is he 1 race short of peak fitness or is he ready now ?
* Ideally - I would prefer him to have had 1 more run before betting him
* I am also nervous his track form at this trip has not been impressive
* On the plus side this is the lowest class he has faced and he is well entered up and well drawn
* I liked MR CHOCOLATE DROP on tape and think he will go very close

CONCLUSION

The Selection is MR CHOCOLATE DROP whose has twice run well now. I feel his chance is stronger
if the draw does hurt Desert Lover as I am predicting. I think you have horses like Kingsmaite - Fistral
and Astorygoeswithit that could win this if showing their best form but equally there are all doubts
about them doing that and overall I felt MR CHOCOLATE DROP has the best profile

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SOUTHWELL 2:30 - LIFE IS ALWAYS A CABARET @ PONTIN'S HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-75) 7f

9/4 Realt Na Mara, 7/2 Dickie Le Davoir, 4/1 Xpres Maite, 5/1 Haroldini, 10/1 Neardown Beauty, Soviet Palace, 14/1 Crow´s Nest Lad.

* This is a 7f Handicap for horses rated 0-75
* Southwell has had 114 similar races run
* Not a pleasant race as there are 7 runners and no e/w options
* DICKIE LE DAVOIR seems to have a decent chance now he is back at 7f
* That said horses aged 4 that came from 6f races had a poor 1-73 record
* I didnt want CROWS NEST LAD as he is out of the handicap and has the biggest absence
* Females score badly winning just 12 of the 114 races
* NEARDOWN BEAUTY is the only female and I am against her
* I dont want the only filly - especially when she has no Southwell form at all
* She has also raced just once in 6 weeks against her own sex
* HAROLDINI is in good form winning his last 2 races in a 0-60 and a 0-49
* This is harder - 4 of his 6 rivals are rated in the 70's and all have a recent run
* HAROLDINI is now 6lbs higher (64) then his best winning mark (58)
* This is a horse with Class Limitations. He has never raced in Class 4 or better from 40 runs
* 111 of the 114 winners had been in Class 4
* His record in Class 5 is 0-10 with just 1 second place in 10 races
* I just feel he may be sticking his head into a class thats a bit above him
* XPRES MAITE is probably well handicapped having not won in 18 months
* He has just been beaten by REALT NA MARA by 1.25 lengths and is 4lbs better off
* XPRES MAITE is not easy to read Trip wise and not sure if 6f suits him better
* Gut feeling is that as REALT NA MARA has just beaten him he may do so again
* Especially as he is the lighter raced of the pair
* The question is which of these will best handle the step up to a 7f trip
* In the 114 races horses like REALT NA MARA doing it with under 9 runs had a 1-42 record
* Thats not great and included several beaten favourites and last time out winners
* SOVIET PALACE ran well last time in a better class race - a 0-85
* He did that having had the problem of dropping back in trip that day
* He also has not got to step up in trip like several in this race
* SOVIET PALACE was clearly badly handicapped having won a 2yo maiden
* He has dropped from 89 to 75 and he looks competetive from this rating
* I think I would see SOVIET PALACE interesting enough to include in any staking plan

CONCLUSION

Have to consider that REALT NA MARA has the most improvement and should go very close. I think
he is the right price though. I felt SOVIET PALACE was too big at 10/1 and 11/1 much as this is a tight
little contest. I think a saver on REALT NA MARA makes sense. He is favourite and the improver and
if he wins then we should not lose any money. Feel like having a small saver on REALT NA MARA but
the main win bet on SOVIET PALACE . Couldnt be certain we have nailed the winner with these 2 but
I did feel they had the better chance.

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SOUTHWELL 3:00 - PONTIN'S SMILES BETTER BY FAR HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (4yo+,0-60) 5f

11/4 Diriculous, 5/1 Bentley, 7/1 Kennington, 8/1 The Geester, 9/1 Cleveland, 10/1 Music Box Express, 12/1 Ace Club, Egyptian Lord, 14/1 Is It Time, 16/1 Wicked Uncle, 20/1 Polar Force, 25/1 Tenancy, 33/1 Fly Time, 50/1 On The Map.

* This is a 5f handicap for horses rated 0-60
* Southwell has had 43 similar races run at this time of year
* There has been 177 similar races at this time of year on all sand tracks
* I want to oppose the favourite DIRICULOUS
* DIRICULOUS has had 3 runs and did well to win a 6f handicap last time
* He wasnt statistically perfect that day - was a little inexperienced yet still defied it
* That may be a key race as several ran in the same race
* DIRICULOUS won beating THE GEESTER into second with CLEVELAND in 3rd
* All 3 horses now drop down to a 5f race and thats what interests me
* DIRICULOUS has had 3 runs and I feel thats a negative profile
* Consider the Following - There has been 472 Handicaps on Sand in Class 5/6 at 5f
* Thats any Sand Track - any time of year - as long as its in Class 5 or 6
* Horses that had Under 4 runs have a 0-54 record
* No horse has won a Low Grade 5f Handicap on sand when so inexperience
* DIRICULOUS is trying to do something no horse has done on sand before
* Not only has he got to do that he has to drop down from 6f as well
* Look at the 472 handicaps at 5f run on sand anywhere / anytime in this class
* No horse managed to step down from 6 furlongs with under 5 starts
* All 62 lost and I have to oppose DIRICULOUS
* Want to oppose MUSIC BOX EXPRESS with 5 runs
* In the 472 sand handicaps horses aged 4 that had under 7 runs were just 1-74
* All 43 Southwell winners at this time of year had at least 7 career starts
* FLY TIME has an unaccetpable absence and is out
* ON THE MAP is down from 7f - Horses doing tha are poor and none were 4 year olds
* I am against the 4yo filly IS IT TIME especially from a bad draw
* You may not want horses drawn very high in these 5f sprints
* You have to go back a long time for a horse that won a similar race drawn 11 or more
* EGYPTIAN LORD and WICKED UNCLE dont have great draws
* EGYPTIAN LORD has a 5 W 2 W W 4 W 9 W record over this Course and Distance
* His last race when 5th was last June in a 0-88 handicap
* He lost by 6 lengths that day in a 0-88 from a handicap mark of 76
* Today he is 22lbs lower in the weights and only has a 0-59 to win
* EGYPTIAN LORD is very well handicapped and more importantly back on his best C+D
* Watched him twice on tape. He has ran better both times than the form book shows
* Still very hard to gage just how well he ran and I am a bit open minded about his chance
* I will shortlist him but his trainer stats he is not "Overhappy" with him
* I dont want ACE CLUBS with 2 runs since May 2007
* Maidens like TENANCY scored badly and none were maidens after as many runs as him
* Equally no maiden dropped in trip to win and all 43 maidens aged 4 lost as well
* Older horses aged 8 or more dont score well dropping in trip (2-70)
* POLAR FORCE and KENNINGTON do this
* I am against POLAR FORCE whose the joint second oldest and has the second longest absence
* KENNINGTON is the other joint second oldest with the 3rd longest absence
* KENNINGTON is in form and well handicapped and ran well last time
* Its just he has no strong 5f form here and its hard to know if he ought to be shortlisted
* CLEVELAND and THE GEESTER were placed behind DIRICULOUS last time out
* I felt CLEVELAND needed the run that day and has every right to improve
* His trainer questions whether the drop to 5f will suit but he looked like he wouldnt mind on video
* He raced well up with the pace over 6f last time and was a lot closer at the 5f pole than the 6f
* My shortlist would be these runners
* BENTLEY - THE GEESTER -EGYPTIAN LORD - CLEVELAND
* I felt THE GEESTER had a hard task on his last run coming from 5f
* He came second to todays favourite Diriculous
* Only 1 statistical problem- THE GEESTER is a maiden 4 year old and they are 0-43 in the 43 races
* Thats a bit of a worry but I didnt see what he did wrong last time out
* He is shortlisted because I liked him on video
* BENTLEY has a solid chance statistically on form and met a well handicapped type last time
* What worries me most about BENTLEY is missing the break as he often does
* He is in stall 1 and if he isnt well away he will suffer traffic problems

Selection

This is about how well CLEVELAND adapts to 5 furlongs - its about just how "Ready" EGYPTIAN LORD
is today after a long spell in the doldrums and a weak draw today. On the plus side he is thrown in and has
been well backed this morning and any negative comments his trainer has made today needs to be considered
but he has after all brought him back to his best Course and Distance and the horse has been well backed. I
found it very hard to judge EGYTPTIAN LORD on video on his last 2 runs other than to believe that he ran
better than the form book shows he ran. I have to take on this favourite (Diriculous) so I feel a split stake bet
makes most sense. I am banking on Bentley getting trapped from stall 1 and am going with EGYPTIAN LORD
at 8/1 as the best handicapped horse in the race and saving on CLEVELAND.

EGYPTIAN LORD is the selection with a saver on CLEVELAND

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SOUTHWELL 3:30 - TREAT THE KIDS AT HALF TERM @ PONTIN'S HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-75) 1m

9/4 My Mentor, 3/1 Jord, King´s Ransom, 7/1 Cha Cha Cha, 9/1 Subadar, 10/1 Intersky Charm.

* This is a 8f handicap for horses rated 0-75
* Southwell has had 177 of these races run at this time of year
* Only 4 horses were as inexperienced as SUBADAR
* None of these had his absence (120 days) or stepped up in trip and he's out
* Only 3 of the 177 winners were as inexperienced as INTERSKY CHARM
* None of these dropped in trip either
* KINGS RANSOM is an exposed horse that hasnt ran in 37 days
* ONly 7 of the 177 winners were exposed horses defying a months absence
* KINGS RANSOM drops from 11f to 8f today
* Horses that dropped from 10f or more absent over a Month had a 1-105 record
* That sole winner was 17 years ago and he wasnt exposed
* I feel there are better profiles than him
* JORD and CHA CHA CHA are fillies
* I suspect CHA CHA CHA has the better profile
* Fillies with 7-8 career starts as CHA CHA CHA has have a 6-37 record
* Fillies with 21 + career starts like JORD have a less impressive 3-138 record
* Exposed Fillies like JORD that didnt run within a week have a 1-100 record
* Thats pretty poor - You have to allow for the small field and other bad profiles
* Lightly raced fillies with a recent run like CHA CHA CHA have a 4-22 record
* This included 2 horses up in trip as CHA CHA CHA trys
* I think I should shortlist CHA CHA CHA and MY MENTOR

CONCLUSIONS

Going to defer to my stats in this race and take the view CHA CHA CHA and MY MENTOR
have the best profiles. Only 6 runners. I will adopt the same strategy as I did in the 2.30 race
where I have selected a big priced Kevin Ryan horse and saved on the favourite. Therefore
CHA CHA CHA is the selection and MY MENTOR the saver

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SOUTHWELL 4:00 - ARENALEISUREPLC.COM HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (4yo+,0-50) 1m

11/4 Abbeygate, 7/2 Wodhill Schnaps, 5/1 Komreyev Star, 7/1 Shifty, Steel Grey, 8/1 Fuel Cell, 10/1 Pawn In Life, 25/1 Cape Dancer, Raven Rascal, 50/1 Knickyknackienoo, 66/1 First Frost, Reflective Glory.

* This is an 8f handicap for horses rated 0-50
* Southwell has had 69 similar races run at this time of year
* I dont fancy PAWN IN LIFE as a 10 year old with 1 run since August
* RAVEN RASCAL shouldnt be fit
* Happy to oppose STEEL GREY with 1 run since September
* I didnt like him on video last time and looked unfit and couldnt hold his position
* He fails a later statistic but overall I feel he needs more runs to get fit
* I dont see FIRST FROST defying her absence
* KNICKYKNACKIENOO and FUEL CELL also have long absences
* FUEL CELL has been absent 147 days and is a 7 year old
* He also drops from 12f and horses doing that have a weak 1-32 record
* You can argue FUEL CELL has upgraded stables which makes him interesting
* I agree with that and feel he is one of the few that might be better than his rating
* I just feel his age and absence makes it very hard for him
* I wouldnt make FUEL CELL a negative
* The best horse in the race is the Topweight and thats the poor 9 year old Shifty rated 50
* I dont think its asking a lot for JJ Quinn to have improved him past that level
* Therefore I would be very carefull about saying I didnt fancy FUEL CELL
* He might turn out to be the most sensible saver in the race
* Cant have a filly coming from a maiden like REFLECTIVE GLORY
* Maiden fillies like CAPE DANCER have a 0-53 record
* Horses that come from 7f races have bad 6-201 record in 69 races
* When exposed horses with 21 + career starts come from 7f they have a bad 1-100 record
* PAWN IN LIFE -WODHILL SCHNAPS both fail that
* Horses aged 6 or more that came from 7f races had a 0-77 record
* STEEL GREY - PAWN IN LIFE -WODHILL SCHNAPS fail that
* There are 3 horses that come out statistically strong
* ABBEYGATE - KOMREYEV STAR - SHIFTY
* SHIFTY is getting long in the tooth and hasnt won for a while
* He is capable of winning a 0-40 handicap though and is well handicapped
* He could easily win this is nothing else sparkles
* He could also quite easily let you down as well
* I felt KOMREYEV STAR had a slightly better chance

CONCLUSION

The Dark one is FUEL CELL. Has an upgrade in trainer improved him enough to defy a
long absence. I looked at the trainers record and he has won with a horse after a long
absence in an identical race and if you bet him you do have factors in your favour. If
you decide that more recent form is more important then you have a choice of 3 horses
in my view. My "marginal" preference from these 3 horses is KOMREYEV STAR at 8/1
and he is my selection.

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W O L V E R H A M P T O N

Wolves 6.50

5/2 Memphis Man, 11/4 Coleorton Dancer, 100/30 Figaro Flyer, 6/1 Royal Challenge, 7/1 Distant Sun, 10/1 Came Back.

Wasnt really a stats race. I didnt want DISTANT SUN with his absence. What you find is that although there
were only 25 of these races horses that had to come from a 5f race had a poor record. When the 5f horses like
MEMPHIS MAN run within a month of their last runs they score pretty badly. Its a small sample size. Its quite
a new distance. Its a small field. Cant take many chances but I am going to select COELEORTON DANCER the
Topweight. Last time out he was Bottomweight in a better 0-85 race. I said that day that my Gut feeling was the
time to catch him was when Conceeding weight to inferior horses rather than recieving weight from better rivals.
I get my wish tonight as thats exactly what has happened. COELEORTON DANCER gets to concede weight
to weaker runners and whilst he is hard to win with I will give him the benefit of the doubt.

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WOLVES 7.20

13/8 Spitfire Jane, 4/1 Hawa Khana, 9/2 Tapas Lad, 7/1 Cherished Song, 10/1 Just Mossie, 14/1 Never Sold Out, 20/1 Hollow Dream, 25/1 Maddison County, Novestar, 33/1 Millers Saphire.

* This is a selling race for 3 year olds over an extended Mile
* Wolverhampton has had 25 of these races
* At first glance SPITFIRE JANE looks to have a weak profile
* She is a filly with just 2 runs - She has to come from a 7f race and has an absence
* I couldnt bet a horse like that and you can see where I have gone with her statistically
* There has been 181 Selling races for 3 year olds in the last 20 years between 8f and 9f
* Thats Any time of year and Any track both sand and grass
* Fillies that had under 3 career starts won 10 of the 181 races - Thats fair enough
* When they step up from 7f or shorter however that becomes a 1-77 record
* That sole winner also didnt have the absence that SPITFIRE JANE has
* I have even looked at Every selling race at 8f-9f for all aged horses
* Fillies with under 3 runs that came from 7f had a 1-130 record
* I have to oppose SPITFIRE JANE
* MADDISON COUNTY is out as a once raced filly coming from 6f
* No filly defied a 7 weeks absence in the 25 races
* This pus me off CHERISHED SONG who has a 105 day absence
* CHERISHED SONG was trained by Neville Callaghan
* Has to be a negative that he was sold to M Quinlan for just £2200
* He may be the highest rated horse in the race but he makes no appeal to me
* MILLERS SAPHIRE is out as an unraced filly
* No fillies won with under 4 runs so HOLLOW DREAM is out
* CHERISHED SONG also fails that statistic
* JUST MOSSIE is statistically fine but I dont want him especially as a £800 purchase
* NEVER SOLD OUT has been absent 78 days and that troubles me much as some have defied similar breaks
* NEVER SOLD OUT is also a doubtful stayer in my view
* NOVESTAR is statistically fine but he has also had an absence
* I think this pair stand out as the strongest runners and the fittest
* TAPAS LAD - HAWA KHANA
* TAPAS LAD for me

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