No Account Bet

2 Selections


BEVERLEY 3.45

NEW BEGINNING 9/2

Each Way Bet



BEVERLEY 2.00

PRINCE NOEL 6/1 Win Bet

BAJAN PRIDE 100/30 (Saver)



Two Selections at Beverley today. There's an
each way bet on NEW BEGINNING. As there
are 4 places available I've decided to bet him
each way rather than have the save on the 1
danger I can see in Fortunate Isle. I think it
is a good each way bet and NEW BEGINNING
will find it hard to finish out of the frame in
my opinion. I think this is the best bet today.
Going with 1 more selection earlier on in a
seller. I see this as a big field race that has
only a few runners you can give a chance to
and I think I have the strongest two runners
and at the prices and the way I have staked
it I think we are getting reasonable value.

Short Preview at Cheltenham today. Not one
to take too seriously. It's rushed and not well
prepared as it may have been on a quieter day
and I have only done it rather than some of the
Beverley 3yo handicaps.

Three Newmarket races. Didnt think I had made
the case in the Free Handicap. The Nell Gwyn is
an option but my selection just feels a bit too
obvious and I am not sold enough. The handicap
at 5.55 should go to GREEN BERET and he is a
confident choice but 2/1 is a bit short when you
consider it is a high class handicap on a Grade 1
track and I find it hard to argue he is Value

Short Priced options are there as always but I
will give these a miss much as Torphichen and
Monsieur Chevalier should both win today.

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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G



No Selections yesterday. I steered you to the 3
National Hunt races. I got the 3 main negatives
beaten in all 3 races but picked the wrong ones
to go with. My first choice ran poorly only to be
beaten by the danger. My second choice lost but
again we got the favourite beaten as we did in
the 3rd Preview where the saver won. Sometimes
you need more than identifying a bad favourite.
My heart wasnt in the Yarmouth Card and I feel
it was a day I should have skipped.


NEWMARKET starts it's Craven Meeting today.
There is no real point previewing some of the
early races. Decided on 3 Newmarket Previews
today and they are the 3.35 - 4.10 - 5.55pm races.
Over at BEVERLEY I only have two Previews. I
took the view that the 3yo Handicaps on the card
were being too ambitious and I did not have the
weapons to open up these races. Therefore its a
5 preview message and 3 x Newmarket and 2 x
Beverley but before that I want a quick look at
the National Hunt at Cheltenham.





C H E L T E N H A M



I dont think I have ever covered this card before.
Felt it was worth a very quick summarised look
without getting too in deep or technical. Trust
me when I tell you I started this preview during
Holby City and finished before it ended so you
can see its swift and care free and just added as
something to fill the message with. Don't expect
me to nail many winners here all afternoon as
I havent taken any great care here and am just
reporting histotical facts from past these races.


In the Juvenile race at 2.10pm I would find it hard
to oppose TORPHICHEN who comes from a Grade 1
in the Supreme Novice Hurdle. If you look at all 4yo
races in April and look at all 4 year olds that come
from that race they had a predictable 2-2 record as
dropping in class and to their own age race is a big
advantage. I wouldnt want to oppose him myself. In
this race horses that coming Maiden Hurdles like
TASHEBA had a 0-10 record and RORY BOY just
looks overexposed. No Past winner of this had over
5 runs and he has had twice that amount. You need
a previous winner so I'm against Mountaineer and
Always Bold and Anfield Road. BALZACCIO may
run well but at the end of the day he was 16/1 for a
Cheltenham handicap whereas TORPHICHEN was
7/1 to win a Grade 1 race and finished a lot closer
in that race. I think TORPHICHEN should win.


The 2.45pm is a Handicap Chase over an extended
3m 1f. Not sure I really trust my angles in the race
but I would suggest the following from the history
this race gives us. I would want a horse aged 7-8-9
that had at least 4 runs this season and had a run
within 7 weeks. I would eliminate all horses that
ran over 4m and longer last time out and be very
wary of all horses with 11st 5lbs and more. This
short pricess leads me to two runners both 8 year
olds in form. NEVER SO BLUE and GAORA LANE
would come out best on those unconvincing trends


I wasnt comfortable with the 3.10 race either so I
just ran some basic trends of past winners. They
told me to oppose exposd horses (1-33 record) and
oppose horses aged 9 or more. They suggest you'd
need to oppose all horses out of the handicap. I'd
want to avoid 4 year olds as well. I dont want any
horse from a Novice Handicap or any runner from
a 2m Novice Hurdle or a Non Handicap Chase. I
didnt want any horse with 1-2 runs that year if
they were up in trip or if they had 9 or more runs.
Very basic set of trends and no refinement at all
but they gave me a shortlist of these 4 horses -
Dave's Dream- The Polomoche -Hernando Royal
and Khachaturian.


The 3.55pm is a Handicap Chase thats only had
6 renewals since the conditions of the race took
a radical change. All I can really say is that all
6 winners came from either the Cheltenham or
Aintree Festivals. They were all aged under 10.
They all ran within 7 weeks and they all had
11st 2lbs or less. If that happens again then it's
down to LE BURF or OCEANOS DES OBEAUX.
Personaly I worried LE BURF had a bit too much
form on right handed tracks. He is still on the
shortlist. Not convinced at all these trends will
work out.


The Novice Handicap Hurdle at 4.30pm looks a
bit nasty. I would want the following from any
selection as all past winners could be described
this way. They all had between 5 and 20 runs.
They did not come from Sellers or Claimers.
They were aged 6 or more (others 0-29). They
had never run in Graded race before. No Past
winner came from a Maiden hurdle. They were
all 1-2-3-4 or fallen last time out. They had all
won in their last six races. They all ran within
10 lengths of the winner last time out. If these
trends work out again then one of these 3 win.

BENCH WARRENT
SILVER SPINNER
LONG HOP


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N E W M A R K E T


I think I have to ignore the early races at Newmarket
today as they are not really sortable. The Maiden that
starts the card is almost all unraced horses and a race
for information and Gallop Watchers.

The Conditions race at 2.25pm is interesting. This may
go to MONSIUER CHEVALIER. I remember in this race
last year the winning trainer of this race explained that
as his horse had won a low grade maiden in Class 6 he
was able to escape a penalty. This year Richard Hannon
has done that with MONSIUER CHEVALIER. He doesnt
get the normal penalty and allowing him 6lbs advantage
in his bid to beat the Brocklesby winner Hearts of Fire.
I think weight is very important in 2yo races and I feel
MONSIUER CHEVALIER will be good enough to win in
a race his stable have won several times before.


The 3yo Trophy at 3pm looks billious and there are no
trends as its a new race so I have to bail out there.

I want to leave the Fielden Stakes at 4.45 as the race is
a bit of a farce. I would take the view that DRUMBEAT
and HELIODOR are exposed and far more than any past
winner. ON OUR WAY does not mirror past winners
but his trainer loves this race with 4 recent wins and
the 2nd last year and he also comes from a good Trial
race so hes included. REDWOOD and DERBAAS are
also big runners in the race

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NEWMARKET 3.35

BETTERBET EUROPEAN FREE HANDICAP
(LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (3yo) ce

9/2 Art Connoisseur, 5/1 Awinnersgame, 5/1 Courageous,
5/1 Rose Diamond, 11/2 Penny's Gift, 9/1 Ouqba, Marine Boy, 14/1 Saxford, 16/1 Snoqualmie Girl, 25/1 Wildcat Wizard.


SELECTION - COURAGEOUS
SAVER - OUQBA

The Free Handicap has a long history and is a Listed
Class Handicap over 7f for Three year olds. I am not
persuaded by ART CONNOISSEUR. Several niggling
little trends against him. He would be the first past
winner to have already won 3 races and that hints he
may have shown too much to the handicapper and it
has left him with Topweight and only 2 of the last 20
winners defied that weight . It would also bother me
that ART CONNOISSEUR also has a longer absence
to overcome than any past winner bar one and that is
a big concern. You can argue that horses that ran at
6f or shorter that were not 1st or 2nd last time out
were 0-48 in this race. I do not think there is a Silver
Bullet stat that kills his chance completely but its a
case of several trends against him that added up just
show him to be the wrong type. SAXFORD isnt for me
as he has run 9 times in his career more than any past
winner and also has more wins than any past winner.
WILDCAT WIZARD looks out of his depth in this race.


No filly has won this in the last 20 years but I am not
convinced that is a great stat as only 11 tried and not
many were fancied and a couple were second. This is
a trend that may be tested today as there are 3 fillies
in a small field. SNOQUALMIE GIRL - PENNYS GIFT
and ROSE DIAMOND all try and become the first in
recent years. SNOQUALMIE GIRL looks a bit exposed
as a juvenile to me and I cant find a horse that ran as
many times as a juvenile as she did when racing over
7f so I'm comfortable rejecting her. ROSE DIAMOND
has to go. Roger Charlton has said she has not been
"reved up" for today and she will need the run and as
a filly that will need further she is hard to fancy and
I cant find a winner that ran over a mile as a 2yo and
then won this first time out. If there is a filly to win
I dont see which one. PENNY´S GIFT has problems
for me. She's had 9 runs and thats very exposed and
not first time out winner was that busy as a juvenile
and she is pretty exposed to be coming from a 6f
race as well. We know none of the past 20 winners
had won more than twice before. Those that had 3
or more wins were 0-29 and PENNY´S GIFT has 4
wins and just looks exposed and as I cant find any
past winner like her and as she is a filly and none
have won this race I have to take her on. This is a
race where 4 horses dominate.


COURAGEOUS - OUQBA
AWINNERSGAME - MARINE BOY

My only real issue with AWINNERSGAME is that
he has also had 3 career wins and no past winner
had won as many times as that and as a horse with
7 runs as a 2yo only 1 past winner was as exposed
as that as a juvenile and thats a worry.

COURAGEOUS is very interesting with my only
concern that no past winner ran over a Mile as
a 2 year old and came back in trip in this race.
I would have prefered to have seen a horse do
that and win this race.

OUQBA is also quite exposed with 7 runs as a
juvenile. There are not many past winners with
a similar profile. He comes from the Dewhurst
and horses that do that in this race had a 3-7
record which is excellent. All 3 that won though
had 3-4 career runs and he has 7 and that is my
main concern about him

MARINE BOY has to be considered as many past
winners had 3 previous runs but only 1 managed
to come up from 6f and he has been off the track
a while. One of the problems with him is that his
trainer has said he is "Not as forward as I'd like"
and whilst that may not be the case it does make
you wonder whether you are betting a horse that
might not be ready. Statistically he quite good and
the 1993 winner had a similar profile. There are a
few mixed messages about him

SELECTION

Given I have shortlisted 4 horses and have at least
one problem with all of them I am going to go with
the horse I have the least concerns about. That is
COURAGEOUS. He does come down in trip and it
is a worry but he is lightly raced and 7 of the last
9 winners had under 6 runs. I'm saving on OUQBA


SELECTION - COURAGEOUS
SAVER - OUQBA


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NEWMARKET 4.10

LESLIE HARRISON MEMORIAL NELL GWYN STAKES
(GROUP 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 7f

4/7 Fantasia, 6/1 Summer Fete, 7/1 Wajaha,
16/1 Damaniyat Girl, 16/1 Misdaqeya, 20/1
Arabian Mirage, 25/1 Dunes Queen, First
City, 25/1 Smokey Ryder, 33/1 Kaabari, Fazbee.


SELECTION - SUMMER FETE E/W

The Nell Gwyn Stakes is a recognised trial for the
1000 Guineas. The dilemma here is whether to bet
FANTASIA the 3rd favourite for the Guineas or look
at an each way alternative. Bearing in mind only 4
horses are trading at under 28/1 the each way option
surely looks best. One of the best statistics in this
race is to oppose the lightly raced fillies that come
from 6f races. Those that do that with under 3 runs
have a 0-30 record and this includes a lot of beaten
favourites too. I would not entertain these types so
DAMANIYAT GIRL -DUNES QUEEN -FIRST CITY
are out. None of the past winners came from any
Handicap and its very rare for any winner of this
race to have ever ran in thenursery system before
so SMOKEY RYDER has to go as does FAZBEE and
WAJAHA. I dont see once raced KAABARI being
experienced enough. No past winner took 3 runs to
win a maiden a worry for ARABIAN MIRAGE. This
really leaves 3 runners.

My problem with FANTASIA is that he drops in trip
from a Mile. Only 1 past winner did that in a 1-30
record something WAJAHA also does and it does
not really fit the pattern of past winners. I would
not rule her out on that alone but FANTASIA is a
short price and it shouldnt take much to put you
off a short priced horse. Looking at possible each
way alternatives. MISDAQEYA has a chance but
to mirror past winners she would have needed to
have placed at worst last time out and she didnt.
I would argue the best profile in this race might
be SUMMER FETE. I looked at all horses like her
with 3 runs and 2 wins having won a 7f race last
year and found a 2-3 record. She looks the main
danger to the favourite. She looks the E/W bet.

SELECTION - SUMMER FETE E/W


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NEWMARKET 5.55

BETTERBET ON NEWMARKET HIGH STREET
HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (3yo,0-100) 6f

2/1 Green Beret, 11/2 Enact, 6/1 Dark Mischief,
7/1 Definightly, 9/1 Elusive Fame, 10/1 Servoca,
12/1 Masamah, 16/1 Tobond, 20/1 Aldermoor, 20/1
Lucky Redback, 25/1 Dove Mews, Caledonia Princess.

ELECTION - GREEN BERET

* This is a 3yo Handicap over 6f for 0-100 rated horses
* There has been 18 renewals of this race
* There has been 32 similar renewals elsewhere
* You want a certain type of horse in this race
* You want a horse without Group Class form
* You want a lightly raced horse
* You ideally dont want a handicap graduate
* I will start with horses from Handicaps
* Horses that came from 3yo handicaps first
* If they had a very recent run they are fine
* Therefore Green Beret is not rejected
* Horses from Nursery Handicaps are 2-69
* No Filly came via handicaps though
* CALEDONIA PRINCESS fail that
* DOVE MEWS fails that
* Horses from Nurseries that won had at least 5 runs
* ALDERMOOR fails that
* ALDERMOOR comes from Nurseries and has 9st 9lbs
* Horses that did that with 9st or more were 0-30
* Looking next at exposed horses in this race
* 6 of the 18 winners had 5 or more runs
* Those that had run this year were just 1-88
* TOBOND fails that statistic and comes from Lingfield
* All 37 horses that did that lost
* SERVOCA also has 5 + runs and a run this year (1-88)
* Horses that ran this year had to be lightly raced
* Horses that had ran in Group Class before struggled
* They had a 0-30 record in this race
* SERVOCA fails that and is rejected
* It took her 8 races before she won a race
* LUCKY REDBACK has also got Group Form
* He looks too exposed as well
* MASAMAH has also ran in Group class before
* Fillies won 4 of the 18 renewals
* None of these had under 3 career starts
* ENACT has ran just twice and is a filly
* All 4 fillies that won this came from 5f races
* Those that did not had a 0-36 record
* ENACT - DOVE MEWS both fail this
* I looked at the 32 similar races at this time of year
* None of these 32 winners had just 1 race
* ELUSIVE FAME has 1 run and thats a worry
* There are 109 of these 6f races in All Classes of race
* None of the winners had just 1 run
* Horses that came from 7f races won 4 renewals
* None won last time out though (0-10)
* ELUSIVE FAME fails that
* All 16 fillies that came from a 7f race lost
* ENACT has that to overcome
* Horses that ran in Listed Class struggled
* In 32 races none did it with under 5 runs
* ENACT and DARK MISCHIEF fail that
* The strongest runners statistically are these
* GREEN BERET - DEFINIGHTLY
* I look at seasonal debutants with 5 + runs
* Those that came from 6f races were 0-52
* DEFINIGHTLY fails that obscure trend
* I thought GREEN BERET was better

SELECTION - GREEN BERET

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BEVERLEY 2.00

WELCOME BACK TO BEVERLEY
SELLING STAKES (CLASS 5) (3yo+) 1m100y

7/2 Prince Noel, 4/1 Bajan Pride, 9/2 Thompsons Walls,
8/1 Herbert Crescent, 10/1 My Mate Mal, 12/1 Ace Of Spies,
14/1 Rowan Lodge, 20/1 Captain Royale, 25/1 Desert Hunter,
25/1 Ming Vase, 25/1 Paint Stripper, 25/1 Rosewin, Winged
Farasi, 25/1 Zabeel House, 33/1 Able Dara, 33/1 Mister Maq, 33/1 Sheik'N'Knotsterd.


* This is an all aged seller over an extended Mile
* Beverley has had 9 renewals of this race
* There has been 15 similar races at other tracks

This race has strict demands for horses and some
decent trends. We may have lost a bit this year as
the Draw Bias is a lot more inconclusive than it
used to be but there are strict requirements you
want. I would strongly oppose the following types
of horse. Out go 3 year olds so ROSEWIN has to
go. Horses aged 4 have struggled as well. The 4
year olds that have won all had very recent runs.
Those without a run in the previous fortnight
had a 0-62 record. SHEIK´N´KNOTSTERD has to
go failing that and up from a 6f race. Absent 4yo
CAPTAIN ROYALE and PAINT STRIPPER have
to go as well. No horse aged 4 won this with as
few runs this year as ACE OF SPIES and he was
beaten too far last time out. He is also a maiden
and all 44 horses aged 4 without a win lost. The
4 year olds that won similar races all had three
or more runs this year and as all 58 that didnt
lost THOMPSONS WALLS has to be rejected.
He has the highest rating but has downgraded
stables over the winter and his rating looks to
flatter him and he surely isnt as good as that.


HERBERT CRESCENT is a 4 year old and he's
probably the most likely that age to win this.
You can probably forgive HERBERT CRESCENT
with a 21 day break. Against him is the fact all
4 year olds that came from the All Weather had
a 0-50 record. HERBERT CRESCENT was beaten
22 lengths last time out and we know 4 year olds
that lost by 10 or more lengths last time out had
a 0-58 record. Throw in the fact that both the 4yo
winners came up in trip and all 42 that ran over
a mile or more last time lost as he does and he
just doesnt do it for me with his profile and his
Draw in stall 2 is far from certain to help him.

I want to oppose horses absent 7 weeks or more.
They have a 0-52 record in this race. Since 1995
in all similar races they have a 0-71 record so I
am opposing last years winner ROWAN LODGE.
He won this last year with less weight and had
recent runs as well and this year he doesnt own
that sort of profile. MISTER MAQ also goes with
his profile. ABLE DARA a maiden looks hard to
fancy having been out of form in chases. I dont
want DESERT HUNTER as he didnt do enough
two days ago. Horses that had a months absence
had a 1-66 record in this race and thats not a
good sign for WINGED FARASI. In all other
races no exposed horse defied a months break
in a 0-41 record and beaten miles last time he
doesnt look the one. MING VASE has a tiny
chance and two past winners dropped in trip
from 11f after heavy defeats much as they
came from sellers. He does not have a close
enough profile to any of the winners of this
race but he has a small chance. I cant have
him with Topweight. He is badly weighted
with many of these and as he has never won
in this class before I would just argue he is
not likely to concede weight to all of these.

POSSIBLES


ZABEEL HOUSE isnt out of this completely
as he might just be better than his rating
and he is fit and running well and I give
him a small chance in this race.

MY MATE MAL has had 1 run this season and
in these races horses that did that with under
21 career starts had a 0-28 record. He has had
just 8 career starts and we know that in this
race horses that had under 9 career starts have
a 0-68 record and there must be a suspicion
he isnt ready. That said I wouldnt rule him
out as he only just fails one or two stats but
its a leap of faith to bet him. I dont feel he
did enough on his seasonal debut.


SHORTLIST

PRINCE NOEL
BAJAN PRIDE


BAJAN PRIDE has a strong profile and looks
to have the class for a race like this. He has to
have one of the leading profiles in this race.
PRINCE NOEL also has a strong form chance
and profile and is also a huge runner in this
race. I think the winner is one of these two
horses. I think it makes perfect sense to bet
one and save on the other as you have the
fittest horses with most backclass on your
side and the prices allow two bets here

SELECTION - PRINCE NOEL 6/1
SAVER - BAJAN PRIDE 4/1

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BEVERLEY 3.45

RAPID LAD STAKES (HANDICAP) (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-70) 1m1f207y

7/2 Sirvino, 11/2 New Beginning, 7/1 Cheers For Thea,
7/1 Fortunate Isle, 8/1 Snow Dancer, 10/1 Inside Story,
12/1 King Of The Moors, 14/1 Epidaurian King, 16/1
Destinys Dream, 16/1 Moonstreaker, 16/1 Titinius,
25/1 Fell Pack, 25/1 Malinsa Blue, 33/1 Rain And Shade,
33/1 Trouble Mountain, 50/1 Golden Future, 66/1 Fern House.

* This is a 0-69 handicap just short of 10f
* We have 9 renewals of this race
* There has been 149 similar races elsewhere
* SIRVINO has ran just 4 times before
* He also has to come from an 8f race
* I looked at horses that came from 8f or less
* When they had under 9 career starts they were 2-157
* Horses aged 4 that did this with under 9 runs were 1-118
* Those like SIRVINO that came from handicaps were 0-64
* Horses aged 4 like him that came from 8f were 8-276
* All 8 winners had ran in a higher class than he has
* Those 4yo's in the 8-276 record from handicaps were 4-157
* Those that had under 13 career runs were 0-87
* SIRVINO has a lot to prove doing it with 4 runs
* Not as if his stable specialise with these types
* David Barons seasonal handicap debutants were poor
* Those with under 13 runs had a 1-56 record
* None had under 7 runs and SIRVINO is opposed
* These races at this time of year dont suit fillies
* 4 year old Fillies have a very poor record
* They have an appaling 3-242 record
* Those that ran within the last 2 weeks were 0-50
* DESTINYS DREAM fails that
* Those that drop in distance had a 1-77 record
* DESTINYS DREAM also fails that
* 4yo Fillies with under 9 runs were 0-93
* CHEERS FOR THEA Fails that
* She also has a 7 months break and comes from a 3yo race
* No 4yo Filly won a similar race doing either
* Fillies absent over a month had awful records
* Those with 9 + runs were 3-163
* MALINSA BLUE has that to overcome
* She wont find it easy from Stall one
* Horses from 7f or shorter are 0-148
* Exposed Mares won 7 of the 149 races
* SNOW DANCER is an exposed Mare
* All 7 that won had ran in Class 3 or better before
* SNOW DANCER has not and may lack backclass
* Exposed fillies that didnt run within 2 weeks struggled
* Since 1996 they had a 0-61
* I really dont want a filly so SNOW DANCER's out
* FERN HOUSE fails that and is opposed
* GOLDEN FUTURE doesnt look fit or ready
* FELL PACK has an unsatisfactory profile
* His last 2 runs were Pulled Up over Jumps
* He only has 3 career starts on the Flat
* They were in Maidens when well beaten
* He looks very unsafe and hard to fancy
* TITINIUS doesnt appeal
* Cant find a horse from a selling race like him
* He will probably be outclassed
* KING OF THE MOORS will probably need the run
* His trainer has a poor record with seasonal debutants
* TROUBLE MOUNTAIN doesnt win first time out
* As a 12 year old he makes no appeal first time out
* EPIDAURIAN KING has just been thrashed over hurdles
* He is hard to read in this race
* Almost all his form is on the sand
* He doesnt appeal to me
* MOONSTREAKER doesnt appeal to me
* Not first time out from Richard Whittaker's yard
* I have found 1 winner like RAIN AND SHADE
* Massive Absence and Lightly raced
* He isnt a horse I would fancy today
* The 1996 winner of this did the same though
* If he wins at 50/1 the hint is there
* I dont see him being fit or good enough


P O S S I B L E S



FORTUNATE ISLE
INSIDE STORY
NEW BEGINNING

* INSIDE STORY makes it on the shortlist
* I would have prefered a more recent run though
* Most of his wins have been after a shorter absence
* Similar types won these races but none here

* FORTUNATE ISLE is exposed from an 8f handicap
* I looked at horses that did that within a month
* These horses had a 3-88 record but none won this race
* None of these were as old as he is
* Those that didnt run within a week were 1-82
* Statistically I am a bit concerned
* On the Plus side he is so well handicapped
* He is also fit and potentially well drawn
* Because of that he has to be shortlisted

* NEW BEGINNING has a strong profile
* He is well handicapped having lost his last 23 races
* Running well he can win from this mark


SELECTION -NEW BEGINNING
SAVER - FORTUNATE ISLE

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