No Account Bet

What's missing today is the All Weather to glue it all
together. I have done what I can at Doncaster but the
card's little better than ridiculous with some huge fields. I have also done a bit of National Hunt work but we are lacking a sand card that could have had 3-4 previews in it and provide the bread and butter. Without that today the Message feels a bit light. I have to ignore most of the National Hunt. It's far too early to be tacking the handicaps. They are impossible without knowing which horses are fit and which need a run or two. This Saturday there is a lack of Novice Hurdles. There is not a Maiden hurdle in sight. Therefore its going to be hard work today and I dont see conditions right to produce a classic.


Best Bet today is ICELANDIC 4/1 in the Doncaster 2.40.
He won the race last year and I think he can do it again in
an easier renewal full of negatives. Going with him only as
a suggestion today. I did think about a Full Bet on him but
the stable are just coming out of a virus and havent had a
winner since April. Even with that worry I still feel he is
going to win this race but I would have liked to have seen
a few more runners and winners from the stable. I thought
about an each way bet but I think he is a better win bet. I
did think about splitting a bet with two win bets and the
double with PEPE SIMO in the first at Wincanton but he
is odds on now and I would only have done that if he'd
have been bigger than evens. In the end on what is a hard
Saturday without any all weather support I think the best
thing to do is stay with ICELANDIC as a mention. He is
the one horse in the race that I could bet. Think he wins.

Doncaster 2.40

ICELANDIC 4/1


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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G



No selections yeterday but the Mention won and
it wasnt too bad a message in the end. It's the final
day of the Flat season today and the Turf season is
put to bed. There will be time in due course to have
a look back at the season and update all the results.
Lets get today out of the way first.



D O N C A S T E R


I want to do what I can at Doncaster today without losing
time getting dragged into stupid races that cant be sorted. I dont know if the opening Apprentice race with 20 runners is stupid or not but with 8 past renewals I thought a shortlist made sense based on the past winners who all pass these stats


DONCASTER 11.55

13/2 Aspro Mavro, 13/2 Jordaura, 8/1 Observatory Star,
10/1 Fishforcompliments, 10/1 Kiwi Bay, 10/1 Tamasou,
14/1 Kingswinford, 14/1 Misplaced Fortune, Ocean Transit,
14/1 Realt Na Mara, 14/1 Rising Shadow, Slugger O´toole,
14/1 Toto Skyllachy, 16/1 The Galloping Shoe, 16/1 The
Kyllachy Kid, 20/1 Leonid Glow, 25/1 Bid For Gold,
25/1 Happy Anniversary, 33/1 Glenridding, 66/1 Boy Blue.


* Every past winner had 5 + runs
* They all had 5 + runs this season
* They all came from 7f or 8f races
* They were all aged 3-7 years old
* None had ran in Listed or Group class before
* You want to avoid horses beaten 10 + lengths last time
* Every past winner carried 8st 12lbs or more
* This leaves 4 horses to shortlist
* KIWI BAY - MISPLACED FORTUNE
* TAMASOU - TOTO SKYLLACHY


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DONCASTER 2.05

Totesportcasino.com EBF Gillies Fillies´ Stakes
(Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m2f60y

2/1 Les Fazzani, 9/4 Arwaah, 12/1 Copperbeech, Plaisterer
14/1 Hidden Brief, Queen Of Pentacles, 14/1 Rainbow Desert
16/1 Short Affair, 20/1 Arthur´s Girl, 20/1 Mooakada
25/1 Misdaqeya, 25/1 Perfect Star, 33/1 Cill Rialaig
50/1 Benedicte, 50/1 Candy Ride, 50/1 Syvilla
100/1 Hollow Green, It´s Dubai Dolly, 500/1 Jenny Soba.

This is a Listed Class race for Fillies. There has been only six renewals of this race. I have also looked at the 32 Listed fillies races that were run between September and November. I think you want a horse aged 3 or 4 if possible. The 32 similar races all went to horses aged 3-4 and that looks significant. That is a worry for LES FAZZANI who won this race last year as a 4 year old but is now an age that hasnt won a similar race. That is LES FAZZANI's main hurdle to overcome. She raced only 13 days ago in Italy and that could be an added worry. My gut feeling is LES FAZZANI is a possible saver in this race. Many of her rivals have very difficult tasks today for one reason or another and LES FAZZANI should go close. She doesnt have a great profile for me but I think others have much more to prove. I am against ARTHURS GIRL with just 1 run this year especially with a long absence and down in trip. None of the 32 similar races were won by horses with 1 run. In fact the six renewals of this race show you want at least 5 career starts and at least 3 runs this year. I would see having one race as a problem
and RAINBOW DESERT looks very hard to fancy having only
raced once in a maiden taking on high class fillies.ARWAAH
is inexperienced for a race like this. She would be the lightest raced winner of this race and her draw in stall 20 may well be a killer. Look at the draw bias over this course and distance. There are two very quick turns that hurt high drawn horses. Since 2005 there's been 46 races here with 9 or more career starts. Horses drawn 13 or more won just two of the 46 races and had a 2-117 record. Thats a miserable record in 46 races and the high drawn horses will have to be dropped in and rely on lots of luck in running. I dont see ARWAAH coping with that when so inexperienced. CILL RIALAIG is badly drawn and the ground hurts her. PERFECT STAR is a 5yo drawn in stall 14 and we know no horse has won a similar race her age. PLAISTERER has a nice profile and drawn lower would be a horse to shortlist but stall 16 hurts her and she will need luck.
I think HIDDEN BRIEF looks underraced with just 4 runs and
a long break. MOOAKADA looks a bit unreliable and is not
even her owners first string. SHORT AFFAIR doesnt interest
me as older horses from handicaps have struggled in the 32
races and none were similar to her.

SHORTLIST

QUEEN OF PENTACLES
COPPERBEECH

Both horses are well drawn. Both are a good representation of what type have been winning. QUEEN OF PENTACLES
is a positive and quite like the 2003 winner coming from the same race the Severals Stakes. COPPERBEECH also ran in
that race and although behind her did have traffic problems
and was better fancied that day and had the easier race once it became clear he wasnt able to get through. Although she was beaten last time COPPERBEECH has come out and run since and it may be best to forgive her a photo finish defeat in a messy small field race last time. I think COPPERBEECH has a good chance of taking this race.

SELECTION - COPPERBEECH

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DONCASTER 2.40

Best Odds Guaranteed At totesport.com Wentworth Stakes
(Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 6f

3/1 Sir Gerry, 4/1 Icelandic, 5/1 Prescription, 6/1 Able Master 8/1 Desert Phantom, 10/1 Festoso, 12/1 Fullandby, 20/1 Arthur´s Edge, 20/1 Crystal Moments, 25/1 Lovely Thought, 33/1 Saxford 50/1 Protector, 500/1 Vanadium.

* This is a Listed race over 6f
* Doncaster has had 16 renewals of this race
* There's been 35 similar races elsewhere at this time of year
* VANADIUM cant win at the weights
* I see the following horses as weak statistically
* All past winners were aged 7 or lower
* PROTECTOR is older than any past winner
* All past winners had at least 3 runs that season
* I would ignore all horses that havent had that
* DESERT PHANTOM fails that absent 398 days
* His trainer states he is very burly and will need the run
* He wont be placed if he is as unfit as he suggests
* SAXFORD fails that and looks badly underraced
* SIR GERRY also fails this with 1 run this year
* SIR GERRY also has a 178 day absence to overcome
* His trainer says he will come on a lot for the run
* SIR GERRY has also downgraded stables this year
* I dont see him as fit enough to win
* Horses from 5f races have struggled
* Only 1 past winner came from 7f as well
* Horses beaten 10 + lengths last time were 0-67
* FESTOSO fails that and looks opposable
* Hard to win a Listed race on the back of a poor last run
* I dont see an older filly like her overcoming that
* 3 year olds have the worst record
* Those aged 3 with 7 + career runs were 1-60
* ABLE MASTER fails that and has 14 runs
* Thats quite an exposed 3 year old
* ABLE MASTER also has to come down in trip
* Only 1 past winner dropped in trip to win this
* No 3 year old like him managed it in any similar races
* CRYSTAL MOMENTS has the same problem
* She is another 3yo coming down in distance
* She looks too exposed to be doing that
* LOVELY THOUGHT fails the same statistic
* She is not going to win an all aged Listed race
* Not coming from a Class 5 handicap for 3 year olds


* SHORTLIST

* FULLANDBY - PRESCRIPTION - ICELANDIC

* I am confident enough that one of these should win
* FULLANDBY and PRESCRIPTION come from handicaps
* They come from Class 3 handicaps
* I looked at the 35 similar races to this
* There were 8 winners that came from handicaps
* All 8 winners came from Class 2 handicaps
* Those that came from handicaps in lower grades were 0-40
* This suggests that this pair could fall short of whats required
* I think you can give them a better chance than that though
* FULLANDBY won easily just 4 days ago and is very fit
* FULLANDBY has ran in 8 Listed -Group Class races before
* All he has to show for it is one third place
* He usually gets found out at this level
* I think this is his best chance of winning one
* I think FULLANDBY will place
* I think he is one of the best place only bets today
* PRESCRIPTION also comes from a Class 3 handicap
* Statistically thats not really enough
* If you take the 35 similar Listed class sprints
* All 35 winners had all ran in at least Class 2 before
* PRESCRIPTON has not done that yet
* Every horse in this race has done that except two
* PRESCRIPTION and Arthurs Edge have yet to do that
* PRESCRIPTION is respected as he finally gets her ground
* Purely on her profile she ought to find 1-2 too good

SELECTION

ICELANDIC - Win Bet
FULLANDBY - Saver or place bet

ICELANDIC won this last year and is solid again. His
trainer has been savaged by the Virus all year and has
given a note of caution because of this. He states .....

"The year has been a disaster. We are probably
over the worst but whether Icelandic is 100 per cent I
don't know. Soft ground will be in his favour"

That looks the only obstacle to him winning. He won
this easily last year from the same stall. On Ratings
this is a much weaker race. This race on average official
ratings is 8lbs weaker than last years race. This is a horse that hasnt been fit or right all year. His last run at Ascot was much better than it looked. He wasnt fancied. He was facing a 55 day break and its hard for a 7 year old to win a Group Race when facing that absence. The race he ran in last time was a much better class race than this where every horse was rated 101 or more. He ran much better
than it looked staying on without being given a hard race
and not having the run of the race at all. He should be at
his peak today. Older horses have an excellent record in
this race. Horses like him aged 7 are 3-7 in this contest.
I think ICELANDIC will peak today and win this again.
I see FULLANDBY as the danger and its up to you if
you want saver on him around 7/1 or want a place bet
on him instead as a saver. I expect ICELANDIC to win.


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DONCASTER 3.15

Totesport.com November Handicap
(Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2)
(3yo+) 1m4f


7/1 Baila Me, 8/1 Kings Destiny, 9/1 Charm School, 10/1 Ella, 10/1 Hillview Boy, 12/1 Stormy Weather, 12/1 Tastahil, 14/1 Salden Licht, 14/1 Siberian Tiger, 16/1 Broomielaw, 16/1 Hevelius, 16/1 Pevensey, 20/1 Merchant Of Dubai, 25/1 Highland Legacy, 25/1 Magicalmysterytour, 25/1 Rangefinder, 25/1 Safari Sunup, 33/1 First Avenue, 33/1 Friston Forest, 50/1 Ladies Best, 66/1 Conquisto, 66/1 Tilt, 100/1 Sligo.


* The November Handicap is a Class 2 handicap over 12f
* Since 1990 there has been 19 renewals of this race
* There has been 47 similar races run at other tracks

I have looked closely at what type of horse has won this
race in the past and what type has won all similar races. I would see the following horses as negatives. I dont see that CHARM SCHOOL is the right type. He fails several angles in this race and I cant find a winner like him elsewhere. I think FIRST AVENUE has fitness issues and came out badly. FRISTON FOREST is a negative. SLIGO is unfit. I dont see CONQUISTO as good enough. SAFARI SUNUP fails plenty of angles. An exposed horse like LADIES BEST shouldnt be able to step up in distance after as long an absence as he has. PERSIAN PERIL looks badly handicapped and I couldnt find a winner like him. I think he lacks the class to win this race off this mark. TILT has an awful profile. I cant find winners like MERCHANT OF DUBAI. I feel BROOMIELAW is not backable when up in trip and underraced this year. No horse won like RANGEFINDER and he didnt do enough last time. HIGHLAND LEGACY has the wrong preparation. Mo mare won with under 5 runs that season and ELLA also has to go up in distance and she looks ill prepared to do that with just 3 races this season. TRIP THE LIGHT is out of his depth in this class from his handicap mark. TASTAHIL looks the wrong type and no winner won any similar race with his sort of profile and the weight may beat him. Horses aged 6 with 9 or more career starts had a 1-121 record in all similar 12f handicaps and the likes of MAGICALMYSTERYTOUR and PEVENSEY have to be vulnerable to the younger unexposed types. Statistically HEVELIUS looks the wrong sort of 4yo and he fails too many angles for me. SALDEN LICHT looks wrong to me as an older horse up in trip and with only 3 runs this year and No similar horse won. Lightly raced older horses seem to struggle in these races. They have poor records and
when running within 7 weeks they are just 1-103 and I didnt
like HILLVIEW BOY because of that. Thats one of several
angles that BAILA ME fails as well. She is clearly strongly
fancied. I wouldnt make her a big negative. She's a Godolphin runner with form in Group 1 and Group 2 races. She is very sexy and she may well win but she is so untypical of horses that win these races. She fails multiple angles. She is far too lightly raced this year for a filly especially an older one. I'd be inclined to see her as a saver at best but she's just not the
typical winner of these races. STORMY WEATHER has just
2 runs this year and none of the 19 winners of this race had that. He is very lightly raced. Impossible to judge with form in different countries and coming from a hurdle race. The most likely scenario is that he will fall short but because of his highly unusual profile I would respect him. In a race with so many untypical profiles and so many who look negatives I should shortlist SIBERIAN TIGER as I've found 1 winner only like him but that was the 2006 winner of this race and I cant find a good enough reason to discount him.

SELECTION

KING'S DESTINY

I think KING'S DESTINY is the only horse in this race
with a Good profile and I think its a good profile. The
47 similar races to this show this to be the case

* Horses aged 3
* Between 9 and 12 career starts
* 6 or more runs this season
* Coming from a 12f handicap
* No form in Group Class before
* Carrying under 9st weight
* Starting under 50/1
* The record of these types was 6-15 (40% strike rate)
* The 15 runners finished in the following positions
* W 2 W 4 0 W 6 4 W 4 5 W 0 3 W
* Thats a very impressive record in a Class 2 handicap
* He is very similar to the 2005 and 2007 winners of this
* KING'S DESTINY has to be the bet

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N A T I O N A L H U N T


WINCANTON 12.40

I thought PEPE SIMO was just about the most likely
National Hunt winner today. He ought to win this race.
Around evens and a shade shorter on betfair is a little
dissapointing but it is not a bad price. Dont forget this
horse has Grade 1 form in the past and has just won a
maiden hurdle last time. Statistically I would describe
him as Strong. I found 9 runners that had his profile
and 5 of these won and that 5-9 record looks a strong
statistic. I didnt like Diamond Brook as a 4yo beaten
recently. Qaspal doesnt appeal from a Bumper when
beaten as well. Wade Farm Billy will probably be just
a grade lower class than PEPE SIMO. I have to stay
away from Eastern Paramour as a 4yo Filly coming
from a Bumper. I think PEPE SIMO really should be
good enough to win this race.

SELECTION - PEPE SIMO

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KELSO 12.50

Fruitful Novices´ Selling Hurdle (CLASS 5)
(4-6yo) 2m110y

7/2 Grand Diamond, 4/1 Josephine Malines, 9/2 Shaylee,
13/2 Treeko, 9/1 Tipsy Indian, 10/1 Solis, 11/1 Bivouac,
11/1 Keep Attacking, 12/1 Be Smart, 16/1 Merrion Tiger,
33/1 Noble Vic, 33/1 Still Calm, 66/1 Bollin Dennis.

This is a Novice Selling Hurdle into its 15th year and
its clear Fillies have had the edge up to now. The last
14 renewals show Fillies (6-45) leading males (8-125)
with a much better strike rate from fewer runners. I
am taking out certain male runners. Older male horse
aged 5 or more had a 1-77 record in this race and he
was a hot favourite. BOLLIN DENNIS and BIVOUAC
are older males and unraced. GRAND DIAMOND does
not interest me as an older male. I dont want a male
first time out and MERRION TIGER fails that. The
Rag NOBLE VIC cant jump properly. STILL CALM
is rejected as male as is SOLIS who could well be too
exposed as no horse won like him with as many runs
as he has and none came from handicap hurdles. I'd
oppose TIPSY INDIAN as well as an older male from
handicaps. TREEKO could be the best of the males in
the race. I think TREEKO has a chance. I dont mind
males aged 4 as they won 7 renewals. None came from
a Chase as he does but none tried and I have no idea if
thats a bad thing or not. I dont have a problem with a
lightly raced filly like SHAYLEE and horses have won
this with 2 runs before but she didnt do enough for me
just 13 days ago and I cant see where the improvement
will come from.

SHORTLIST

KEEP ATTACKING is Irish and impossible to read
but mares her age are 2-3 in this race with 7 or more
starts and whilst she hasnt ran in a long time she is a
horse that needs watching in the market. BE SMART
has a solid profile as a 4yo filly. I would also have to
consider JOSEPHINE MALINES excellent statistically.

SELECTION

It should be hard to keep JOSEPHINE MALINES out
of the frame in a race mares do well in and there are
far less doubts about her than others. Around 4/1 each
way and I cant see 3 horses beating her in this poor race.

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WINCANTON 2.15

The Elite Hurdle is a Complicated mixture of just how
each of these can deal with their problems. Several of
these clearly need a lot further than 2 miles. There is
also fitness doubts for many of them to prove. Throw
in the softer ground that may or may not be drying and
its a messy race. I fancy BLUE BAJAN and feel that his
fitness will be a huge help to a horse that will be better
suited to the distance than most. I dont fancy Tasheba
at the trip. I think Celestial Halo has plenty on his plate
with topweight and certain to need a run over a distance
thats a bare minimum. Whiteoak should want further as
well as does Mamlook. I think the horse with the least
number of problems is BLUE BAJAN.

SELECTION - BLUE BAJAN

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KELSO 2.25

3/1 Mister Mcgoldrick, 4/1 Keelaghan, 5/1 Santa´s Son
6/1 Oumeyade, 7/1 Calatagan, 7/1 Palomar, 10/1 Tom´s Toybox
20/1 Albanov, 20/1 Marcel.

This is a Class 2 Handicap Chase for horses rated 0-149
and it strike me MISTER MCGOLDRICK had a lot to do
as a seasonal debutant aged 12. I looked at all the classy
handicaps before Christmas for similar types and I found
only 1 horse that old that won first time out and that was
a horse that had over 20lbs less weight. I am taking him on with an alternative. I dont like horses beaten a long way last time out when they come out very quickly as too much improvement is needed in too quick a period of time. I feel MARCEL comes into that category. PALOMAR also has a
lot to prove after being well beaten just 13 days ago. I dont think QUMEYADE will have the class to win from his mark. I doubt TOM´S TOYBOX or ALBANOV are good enough.
CALATAGAN'S recent history suggests to me he may well
need at least one more run this year to peak. I think the Irish runner KEELAGHAN will run well and I like SANTA'S SON who is a seasonal debutant last seen in a Graded Chase. The record of horses like SANTA'S SON who come from Graded chases in all similar races are 2-8 and several ran well when not winning as well. I would make him the selection.

SELECTION - SANTA'S SON
SAVER - KEELAGHAN

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