No Bet Today


Been a quiet week so far but the Racing has not been
easy and today I've lost my best profile on the day
at Uttoxeter now a Non runner. My second best bet
is at Kempton 6.50pm and BRENIN TARAN but 2 non
runners have hurt the price and I because of that
I dont want to stake anything thats under the odds.


I do think there are horses that can be backed today
though. I thought the 6.50pm at Kempton was right
for BRENIN TARAN and felt He may win that race.
My worry in the race is the fact there will be no room
for error if he misses the break and that GO NANI GO
is a serious danger. There's enough pressure on the price
with BRENIN TARAN now short at 2/1 after the non
runners. I dont think the prices are there if you want a
saver in the race so I wont be making him a bet. I plan
to bet BRENIN TARAN myself to win the race and also
GO NANI GO to get placed in the race as I feel I've a
big chance of winning twice and shouldnt lose in the race.


Very unsual for me to bet a horse running over 10f when
he comes from a 16f race but I have found winners who
did just that and I have backed WHITEROCKS at 20/1 in
the 5.50pm at Kempton and think he is overpriced.


I'm having a small bet each way on STRIKE THE DEAL
in the 3.45 at Doncaster around 5/1 as well today. With
Non runners and shortening odds I am going to leave the
day without an official bet but the race I felt most confident in was BRENIN TARAN's race at Kempton but I cant stake the bet I felt was best in the race but suggest you follow me.

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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G




U T T O X E T E R


Going to start with the National Hunt meeting at Uttoxeter
but I had a Brilliant profile in Word of Warning and he is now a Non Runner. This leaves my secomd best profile as the new selection but whilst HUMBEL BEN has an excellent profile it wasnt as good as the Non Runners and it means I have lost my best profile on the day.


Uttoxeter 2.20

5/2 Hintsnallegations, 3/1 Pengana, 11/2 Humbel Ben,
6/1 Mumbles Pier, 12/1 Happy New Year, 14/1 Dot's Delight, 20/1 Ministerofinterior, Return To Glory 25/1 Pocket Park, 50/1 Bocciani, Felix Rex, Castlemaine Vic, 100/1 Kaftan Lad, 100/1 Miss Zigzag, 100/1 Sir Billy Nick.

This is a 2m 4f Novice Hurdle and there has been 429 races
like this at this time of year. HINTSNALLEGATIONS looks
like a big runner as does PENGANA and as both are Irish we
are straight away in dangerous tereritory in that I cant rate the amount of ability they have. I had seen Word of Warning as the bet here but he is a Non runner. I therefore have to rely on HUMBEL BEN who has a strong profile as a lightly raced Maiden Hurdle winner. Without knowing about the Irish runners though you can only be so confident in the race. With such strength at the head of the betting Happy New Year and Dot's Delight look vulnerable. I will stay with HUMBEL BEN each way in this Novice Hurdle.

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D O N C A S T E R

Some of the Doncaster races are a waste of time to be
honest and not worth the study time as the chances of
reward is so slim. I feel that about the first race and this Nursery's seen 7 shocks in 9 years and cant be mastered.

No real interest in the Conditions race. I would have tried to get Bond Fastrac beaten as invariably the horses who come from Nurseries like him are vulnerable to pattern
runners and maiden winners. I didnt like Angel's Pursuit
much after running flat just 4 days ago. Roodle did not
leave me wanting to bet him and Footstepsofspring is
dropping in trip and no past winner did that. I thought
TRANSVAAL SKY was a Positive and I would not rule
out the outsider LOVEINTHESAND as I have found 2
past winners with similar profiles much as at first glance
he looks hard to fancy. He could sneak a place.

I think I would have to go with TWICE OVER in the
next race. He gets the benefit of the doubt after his 2nd
in the Prince of Wales at Ascot. That is different class
form to the others. Whilst 3 year olds do have a slight
edge in this race the very best record comes from 3 year
olds up from 8f races and none today have done that.

The Scarborough Stakes (3.45pm) is open and most of
the best negatives surround only the outsiders. Given the
choice I felt the best profile was STRIKE THE DEAL. It
was only a marginal choice and I respect the horses who
come from the Nunthorpe but 5 horses in recent years
came from the Hopeful Stakes as STRIKE THE DEAL
does and 3 of these won and I felt he had a strong chance
in an open sprint and considering he has Kieran Fallon
and the highest rating in the race he should go well.

The 3yo Handicap at 4.20pm over 7f is unsafe as it is a
race thats been upgraded over the years. In fact at this
time of year there's only been 15 of these Class 2 nurseries so trends are hard to find. These 15 races suggest we should avoid fillies (0-35) and every winner had at least 4 career starts and almost all had at least 3 that season. They also suggest horses from 6f should be opposed. This leaves four horses who survive all those demands. These 4 shortlisted are Broad Cairn -Akhenaten -Agente Parmigiano. These 4 look strongest but statistically BROAD CAIRN looks a bit better. In the 15 races admittedly a small sample size male horses that won last time out had a 10-20 record in these races and thats a 50% strike rate and considering BROAD CAIRN is the only last time out winner he looks the strongest profile in an open race.

I have the 4.50pm sprint down as much too hard but had
I previewed it I would have opposed both Ocean Blaze and
Kyle from poor draws. I wouldnt have selected Earlsmedic
or Raccoon. Couldnt find a winner like Haajes. Didnt want
Hazelrigg or Glasshoughton. RASAMAN ran well when 2nd
in this race last year and is a positive but so too are many others in the race and I didnt feel strongly about the race.

I felt the same about Division 2 of the race at 5.25pm as
well. Lethal looking race. The last 25 Handicaps here at
Doncaster with 8 or more runners in them show stalls 1
and stalls 2 having a 0-44 record so I would not want to
bet INVINCIBLE LAD the favourite from what may be
the worst draw and MR WOLF is also eliminated from a
poor draw. I am ignoring THE TATLING mainly because
of his age. SECRET VENUE didnt interest me with his
absence. They would be my negatives in the race but its
a bit too tough to be commiting to.

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E P S O M

I am leaving the Nursery alone at 2.10pm especially with
7 runners but I looked at all similar races. Horses from the Auction type of maidens scored badly and that would put
me off BUSH TUCKER. I dont like RADIO CITY either
as horses that came from 5f races without a run in the last
15 days had a 1-64 record in all similar races. Thats also
a mark against MORE LASHES. I didn't like those runners.

The Maiden at 2.45 is a small field guessing game and I
just prefer REALISATION over NATURAL LAW as he
has ran twice and most winners of this race were of the
more experienced kind but its a close call. I didnt like any of the other races on the card.

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K E M P T O N


KEMPTON 5.50

7/2 Sircozy, Arty Crafty, 5/1 Haling Park, 11/2 Chateauneuf, 9/1 Through The Forest, 10/1 Warrants Attention, 14/1 Marjury Daw, 14/1 Sestet, 16/1 Bourn Fair, 20/1 Whiterocks, Final Son 25/1 Majd Aljazeera, 33/1 Law And Order, Miss Perfectionist.

This is a Classified race over 10f for 0-55 rated horses. There has been 59 similar races between August and October. Fillies aged 3 in these 59 races won 6 but those with under 7 career starts were 0-62 and thats a worry for many in this race like HALING PARK- ARTY CRAFT - THROUGH THE FOREST BOURN FAIR -CHATEAUNEUF and MARJURY DAW. None
of the 59 winners came from 2yo maidens. ARTY CRAFTY
has already failed one strong angle and she doesnt look safe to me from a 7f maiden for 2 year olds and a 301 day break. I'd also oppose MARJURY DAW and BOURN FAIR also from 2yo maidens. MISS PERFECTIONIST looks weak. Fillies that came from Maidens struggled. None won with under 9 career runs or at least 6 runs that year. None were beaten more than 10 lengths in the either and as THROUGH THE FOREST and CHATEAUNEUF fail all those angles as fillies from maidens I would oppose both. SESTET comes out very badly as a filly with an absence. LAW AND ORDER and FINAL SON look to have too much to overcome. I cant find a winner of 59 races remotely similar. 3 year olds that came from handicaps over 8f or shorter were 0-41 and MAJD ALJAZEERA fails that. SIRCOZY has a bit to prove with a heavy defeat and a long absence as well and I cant match a similar winner. The two that interested me were WARRANTS ATTENTION and WHITEROCKS. There wasnt much between them at
Chepstow 2 runs ago. Neither stayed and WHITEROCKS
came out and had no hope of staying 2 miles at Goodwood
and horses down so dramatically in trip had a much better
record than I would have thought. I would prefer this pair.


KEMPTON 6.50

5/2 Brenin Taran, 7/2 Island Legend, 6/1 Evelyn May,
7/1 Go Nani Go, 8/1 Love You Louis, 12/1 Angel Song,
16/1 Keep Dancing, 16/1 Sharp Bullet, 25/1 Lucky Leigh,
33/1 The Magic Of Rio.

This is a 3yo Handicap over 5 Furlongs. We have had
about 130 similar handicaps at this time of year. As no
Filly won with under 4 runs and none won coming down
from a 7f race to a 5f race ANGEL SONG looks a horse
to avoid. I looked at horses well beaten last time and
none had under 5 runs like ISLAND LEGEND and any
horse overcoming a heavy defeat were all different to
him and I felt he was weak. THE MAGIC OF RIO looks
opposable. Those already tested in Group Class struggled
and I couldnt find a winner like LUCKY LEIGH. I don't
like the look of LOVE YOU LOUIS with just a couple of
runs since last Febuary. Fillies from 3yo handicaps over
6f won races but none were beaten more than 6 lengths
last time or failed to place suggesting KEEP DANCING
hasnt done enough lately. SHARP BULLET has both an
unusual and unsafe look to him and I suspect he is not that well handicapped and No horse with a similar profile won.

EVELYN MAY - She has a decent profile
GO NANI GO - Big runner
BRENIN TARAN - He has a strong profile

GO NANI GO has 1 run this year but thats not a big
problem in 3yo handicaps when they are lightly raced
and he ran well on his debut in a Class 2 handicap and
could easily threaten Brenin Taran

I think BRENIN TARAN can win this. He takes a big
drop in class. He didnt look to stay 6f last time and
that was on a Grade 1 track at Newmarket in a 0-105
class handicap. Before that he had no luck at all in a
0-97 at Chester. He has proven he handles the track.
Baring bad luck BRENIN TARAN should win this.
I am scared of GO NANI GO and think he is the big
danger. I favour betting BRENIN TARAN to win
and GO NANI GO to place.


Kempton 7.20

Not too worried about the Maiden Auction race at 7.20
but LUTINE CHARLIE does have a very strong profile
and safer than most others and I wouldnt see him as a
favourite to oppose. He looks too strong to me.


Kempton 7.50

5/2 Royal Dignitary, 11/4 Captain Jacksparra, 5/1 Diggeratt
15/2 You've Been Mowed, Pressing Matters, 14/1 Millfield,
20/1 Takitwo, Dichoh, Shake On It, 33/1 Double Valentine,
33/1 Mississippian, 33/1 Whispered Lands.

This is a Claimer over a Mile and we have had 93 similar
races run at this time of year. I felt MISSISIPPIAN and
DOUBLE VALENTINE were underraced to win this and
looked weak. PRESSING MATTERS - DIGGERATT and YOU'VE BEEN MOVED are 3 year olds coming from 7f claimers and these types scored poorly. None were beaten last time as all 3 of these were. TAKITWO looks beatable and others are better weighted. I wouldnt rule out DICHOH but he doesnt get the benefit of the doubt with his absence and with two less than encouraging last runs. I consider that CAPTAIN JACKSPARRA and MILLFIELD have a similar profile and reasonable chances. ROYAL DIGNITARY comes from a 7f claimer and many older winners did that and helooks the strongest runner in the race to me.



In the 8.20 I wouldnt oppose THE SCORCHING WIND as
a 3yo in great form but I see him as an each way double bet
rather than as a win bet.

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