Mathematician 386 | 10-06-2009 |
No Account Bet
1 Selection
Brighton 4.50
ASK JENNY 3/1
Win Bet
I am throwing in a very short one today. Just
want to get back in front and ahead of schedule
with a busy weekend and Royal Ascot looming.
Only priority today is to try and find a winner at
the top of the message and I think ASK JENNY
is that horse. Been watching her recently and I
think she is about to win and generally around
3/1 and more I think she will swoop late to win.
ASK JENNY 100/30 -PaddyP-Blue Sq -Skybet-888sport
ASK JENNY 3/1-Boyles -Bet365-Betfred - Vc
ASK JENNY 11/4 - Hills -Stan J
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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G
One selection yesterday. An each way bet in a maiden hurdle
on STARLIGHT AIR. He ran well and placed in second and
just a small profit on the bet. I knew I had a weak favourite I could beat but to be honest there are so many useless hurdlers at this time of year I really struggle to seperate some of them and I could just as easily have had the winner or an unplaced one. The negative for the favourite and the decent price about STARLIGHT AIR forced my hand and I had to go with him and not unhappy with how he ran and he never really looked like either winning or unplacing. That aside not a great message.
Royal Ascot next week and want to be very competetive at the meeting so I will grab some time this week to get that right. No Predictions at Ascot. Just planning to take it a day at a Time. What we can do is have a Competition on the board. The usual Tipping comptetition. I will put up some nice prize money and of course its free to enter.
Its slow with the account bets but dont worry about that. At the moment the Selections are going very well. We had 50% of them win in May. If you had £20 on every selection at the top of the message in the last 3 months you would be winning well and almost £520 in front to £20 stakes. There are good and bad runs and many quiet periods but I spend no less time of thought on selections than account bets and whatever artifical lable they are given they both show decent profits long term. What may be dominant at the moment - which happens to be the selections wont always be so and the account bets will have their period as they always do. Just a very quick check at how the selections
have done in the last 3 months.
JUNE - 7 Selections
3 Lost - 3 Placed -1 Won
Total + 9.00
MAY - 21 Selections
10 Lost - 1 Placed -10 Won
Total + 411.50
APRIL - 19 Selections
11 Lost -4 Placed -4 Won
+98.65
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BEVERLEY 2.00
MAIDTORUN will probably win but she is a bit short for
me. Combine several runs and a recent run in these races and you have magnificent profiles like REEL CREDIT CRUNCH
but the only techicality is that none came from maidens as he does. I wouldnt underestimate him. I see this as a split stake race. Half on MAIDTORUN to win and the other half stake on REEL CREDIT CRUNCH place only.
BEVERLEY 3.00
I quite like this 3yo handicap over 12f for 0-55 rated horses. I thought ADDISON DE WITT was the strongest one here. Not my favourite stable at all but his Redcar race last time over 14f was good and he led at the 12f marker and this drop in trip looks ideal. I can not see any decent profiles from his rivals in this race. ROSEWIN is a filly from a maiden from a poor sire. Horses from 8f with under 3 runs that season were 0-47 hurting NUT HAND's chance. GOSWICK has stamina doubts. HAAFDH TIME is another filly from a maiden from a sire that hasnt had a winner over 10f yet. I didnt fancy the exposed KINGS CHORISTER who comes from a very poor race whose form has been let down. Both ERNIES KEEP and LUCKETTE look outclassed. DULCE DOMUM lost by 35 lengths only 3 days ago. Its very rare that these staying races go to horses like GREEN ENDEAVOUR coming from 2yo maidens. INCA SLEW has been absent 149 days. I would give CHIC SHANIQUE a chance. She looks the stable 2nd string but I prefer her to her stables other horse and she may be my main danger. I see ADDISON DE WITT as best here.
BEVERLEY 4.30
ESPIRITU would be my choice. I know there are doubts in
his attitude and the visor has gone on today. If he was any
shorter than 4/5 I wouldnt touch him at all but there is every chance he drifts a little. I felt he would win this.
BRIGHTON 4.50
I like ASK JENNY in this race. She was 4th in the same
Lingfield handicap that the 2005 winner came from and
the 2007 winner was also a mare that came from that same
race as well. She made a lot of ground up from last place
at Lingfield and finished with a ton in hand and I think
she will relish the extended 5f here. She is entered up all
over the place this week. I think she can beat the fibresand specialist SPIC ´N SPAN. THOUGHTSOFSTARDOM
didnt do enough two days ago. I would question the fitness
of BLAKESHALL DIAMOND and ONE WAY TICKET. NORDIC LIGHT looks outclassed. I wouldnt see a horse like MEIKLE BARFIL with a 35 day break as backkable against her. KALLIGAL is a filly with just 2 runs this year and a 0-19 career record. BERRYMEAD needs further. I respect JOSS STICK but he has never won on turf and comes from claimers. ASK JENNY looks a horse about to win and I think she will win this.
HAMILTON 6.40
I felt FINSBURY was a place lay with 1 run this year. I didnt want JUST SAM or WHOZART. Felt BOTHAM had some
problems. The race ARGENTINE won last time out beating
THE HISTORY MAN and SUNLEY SOVEREIGN is a good
trial and one of those three look best.
HAMILTON 7.40
I didnt like FISHFORCOMPLIMENTS back at 6f and I dont
see a great record from his type. I would find it hard at these weights to ignore BLUE TOMATO and he'd be my choice.
HAMILTON 8.10
I wouldnt have selected HAARTH SOVEREIGN with 1 run
this year and an absence. I would also have opposed both the 2 mile horses RECORD BREAKER - SOLAS ALAINN who
both come down half a mile. JUST LILLE is a mare up from 8f
and not for me. BIRKSIDE out from a claimer. They would be
the ones I wouldnt select.
HAMILTON 8.40
I don't like any of these but FREMEN would have to be the
selection on the ratings but any market strength in something and it wouldnt take much for me to go cold on him.
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