Mathematician 392 | 18-06-2009 |
No Account Bet
3 Selections
ASCOT 2.30 - YOGAROO 9/4 Win bet
RIPON 5.10 - ALANBROOKE 6/4 Win bet
ASCOT 2.30 - YOGAROO 9/4
RIPON 5.10 - ALANBROOKE 6/4
Each Way Double
Three selections today but I think they can all win.
Three Bets with the same Two horses. These bets
are two win single and an each way double.
Only a short price and a front runners track puts me off
making Alanbrooke an account bet. I'm holding my head
above water at Ascot coping with the messages and several
meetings a day but we are winning enough to recover from
a poor time at the end of last week. Will talk more about
staking after Ascot is finished. Its been a brilliant meeting to watch so far. Longer message today with a lot of races previewed. Just trying to extract the winners and decided that I had two I could be confident about today.
****************************************************
****************************************************
T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G
Stayed away from Ascot with the selections yesterday. Didnt
feel we did too badly at Ascot overall. We avoided some poor favourites and although just one winner all the selections ran well. We wouldnt have had a winner at the top of the message though and did the right thing looking elsewhere. One winner from two bets. MISS PHOEBE won first of all making sure it was a winning day. I would have liked the double but my bets in the other race ran poorly. The Ground may have been to blame but I made a dogs dinner of the race to be fair. There was a small profit on the day so not too unhappy with things.
6 Ascot Previews Today. A Few previews at other meetings.
Starting off with a few words about WARWICK. Then there
are a few previews which includes extra WARWICK races in
the later parts of the message.
WARWICK Preview
ASCOT 2.30
ASCOT 3.05
RIPON 3.20
ASCOT 3.45
ASCOT 4.20
WARWICK 4.45
ASCOT 4.55
RIPON 5.10
WARWICK 5.20
ASCOT 5.30
WARWICK 5.50
FFOS LAS 6.20
LEICESTER 8.10
W A R W I C K
Testing card at Warwick and there is not much I can do with it to be honest. It starts with a Maiden Fillies race but it is dead statistically as so few similar races are run. WOTASPARKLER didnt do enough last time. It would worry me TURNING TOP has a bad draw. I dont think WINTERBOURNE is good enough. That may not be enough help. It will depend on how favourite FEMME DE FER runs and what strength in depth there is.
I am naked in the 2yo maiden (2.55) but I'd expect the winner will have had a race before but no concrete evidence as to which one. I would go with ADMIN with 5f and soft ground suitable.
The Staying Handicap (3.30) is messy. All I can say here is I feel you want a 4 year old. Warwick has had 13 similar races and 4 year olds dominated. However only 3 of the 10 that run are that age. I wouldnt have gone with SQUIRTLE aged 6 with a 147 day break. BAAN has to go with an absence and I didnt think HAWRIDGE KING or LAPINA were ready to win. I'd be worried MY MATE MAX has an absence. I didnt have any strong angles to divide the rest. I would want a 4 year old and would nominate WHITCOMBE SPIRIT and SPHERE as my two against the field in an open race.
The 4.10 handicap is a genuine waste of study time and far
too many runners. I would be looking for a low draw and I
would ignore all those drawn in double figures. I would take out all the horses over 20/1 as well. I would ignore all those that hadnt ran within a month as well. Hardly scientific but that leads to a shortlist of 4 horses. These are Maybe I Wont,Karky Schultz, Astrolibra and Rosy Dawn.
****************************************************
****************************************************
ASCOT 2.30
NORFOLK STAKES (GROUP 2) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 5f
6/4 Monsieur Chevalier, 9/4 Yogaroo, 8/1 Radiohead, 10/1 Tawaabb, 12/1 Here Now And Why, 14/1 Nosedive, 16/1 Kingdom Of Light, 25/1 Reignier, Running Mate, Star Rover, 40/1 Diamond Johnny G.
SELECTION - YOGAROO
The Norfolk Stakes is over 5f for 2 year olds. Not hard to have been impressed with MONSIEUR CHEVALIER who has ran four times and won four times. We havent had a winner with 4 wins before and he is a bit exposed and could be vulnerable to any of several lighter raced improvers. The American Horse aside none of the other English horses today had a profile that fitted well with past winners. As an example history in this race shows that if you come from 5f maidens you are better off with just 1 run and only NOSEDIVE has that but that maiden was just 6 days ago
and that doesnt feel the right type of preparation. RADIOHEAD has a tongue strap and thats off putting for a juvenile in a Royal Ascot Group race. No Past winner of this came from a 6f maiden so KINGDOM OF LIGHT- DIAMOND JOHNNY G and RUNNING MATE are out. STAR ROVER looks exposed and no past winner had a run already at the meeting. I cant match a past winner to any of these and that just increases my confidence in YOGAROO the American Sprinter. Given the choice of 15/8 about Richard Hannon's
Monsieur Chevalier or 9/4 about YOGAROO after the way the USA sprinters have been performing its an easy decision. Nobody can be sure how good he is or how he will run but YOGAROO looks best.
SELECTION - YOGAROO
****************************************************
****************************************************
ASCOT 3.05
RIBBLESDALE STAKES (GROUP 2) (FILLIES)
(CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m4f
7/4 Leocorno, 11/4 Take The Hint, 7/1 July Jasmine, 8/1 Flying Cloud, 12/1 Flame Of Gibraltar, 12/1 Mooakada, 25/1 Uvinza, 33/1 Anice Stellato, 33/1 Totally Devoted, 200/1 It's Dubai Dolly.
SELECTION- TOTALLY DEVOTED Each Way 25/1
The Ribblesdale is for 3yo Fillies over 12 furlongs. It looks a weaker race than normal this year. LEOCORNO impressed winning a handicap last time but this is the Ribblesdale and its hardly a routine preparation. The only horse to win this race from a handicap won a 0-90 3yo handicap against Male horses. LEOCORNO has only won a 0-80 against Fillies and has less experience as well. This is a big step up in class considering she is a short price and hype rather than form is responsible for her odds. LEOCORNO has found a weak renewal.We have no horses
coming from the Epsom Oaks this year or the Cheshire Oaks.
That will give her a far better chance of overcoming the fact she comes via handicaps. I couldnt make her a negative.
My main issue with TAKE THE HINT is that she has just one
run this year and you have to go back to 1994 for the last winner that did that and she doesnt come from a race that has provided any past winner of this race. MOOAKADA is in the same boat as well with one run and coming from a trial race that has not been succesful before. ANICE STELLATO has just one run as does JULY JASMINE. I dont want a horse coming via a maiden race something not done since 1989 so I would oppose Henry Cecil's FLAME OF GIBRALTAR with just maiden form. Any horse that has ran more than once this year could have an edge in this race.
Thats how I would play it especially with so many fancied horses having just one run and absences. FLYING CLOUD could be the one but its getting to the point where you have to think twice before betting any horse trained by Godolphin. I am taking the chance on TOTALLY DEVOTED 25/1 from Ireland.
Every runner bar TOTALLY DEVOTED comes from a maiden
a handicap or a listed/group race. TOTALLY DEVOTED is the
only horse that comes from a Classic or a Group 1 race. That is a reasonable start already. Dont worry about the 25/1 price as the race often goes to bigger priced horses. Dont worry about the step up from 8f to 12f. We had recent winners coming from 7f and 8f before winning this. TOTALLY DEVOTED was well beaten in the Irish Guineas but it was heavy ground and she is bred to hate that. You have to forgive her that. She was hampered on her previous
run. The Racing Post say her run "can be completely forgotten as she had absolutely no racing room in the straight when trying to make her challenge". She hasnt done much wrong at all. Shes in the best yard in the world. She has had 3 runs this season just as the last two winners of this race did. Its a small field and several
can't be fancied. Given the odds TOTALLY DEVOTED is value
SELECTION- TOTALLY DEVOTED Each Way 25/1
****************************************************
****************************************************
RIPON 3.20
JAMES BRINDLEY OF HARROGATE
CLAIMING STAKES (CLASS 5) (3yo+) 6f
9/4 Gap Princess, 9/4 Mutamared, 3/1 Turnkey, 10/1 Steel Blue, 14/1 Dr Wintringham, 14/1 Uace Mac, Woqoodd, 33/1 Dalarossie, 33/1 Nacho Libre, 66/1 Paint Stripper, 66/1 Union Jack Jackson, 66/1 Western Art.
SELECTION - MUTAMARED
* This is a 6f Claiming race for all aged horses
* June has seen 33 of these races
* Five of the 12 runners look no hopers at 40/1 +
* WOQOODD looks unfit with 1 run this year
* Horses with under 2 runs that year were 1-81
* STEEL BLUE doesnt seem fit or ready
* Aged 9 with 2 runs this year is an issue
* TURNKEY is aged 7 with 2 runs this year
* He was beaten over 10 lengths in both those runs
* Not convinced he is at his peak either with two runs
* UACE MAC is seasonal debutant
* Look at all claimers in June between 5f -6f -7f
* Seasonal debutants like UACE MAC were 0-100
* DR WINTRINGHAM is a 3 year old filly
* Horses aged 3 won 4 of the 33 races
* No 3 year old came from under 6f (0-25)
* No 3 year old had under 7 runs either
* DR WINTRINGHAM has too much to prove for me
* GAP PRINCESS is female as were only 4 winners
* Those like her beaten 6 + lengths last time were 0-70
* MUTAMARED has the best profile
* He was 5th in a 0-98 Class 2 handicap last time
* He should be capable of winning this race
SELECTION - MUTAMARED
****************************************************
****************************************************
ASCOT 3.45
GOLD CUP (GROUP 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m4f
9/4 Yeats, 3/1 Geordieland, 3/1 Patkai, 6/1 Veracity,
25/1 Eastern Anthem, 33/1 Centennial, 40/1 Hindu Kush,
40/1 Sagara, 40/1 Washington Irving.
SELECTION - VERACITY Each Way
The Ascot Gold Cup gives 8 year old YEATS the chance of
winning this race for the 4th year in a row. Top class animal but I made the point on Tuesday that since 1989 there has been 537 Group 1 races and only 1 winner went to a horse as old as 8 and that was a 5f sprinter on soft ground. This is the task that both YEATS and GEORDIELAND have to overcome. Dissapointing last time and now more exposed than 19 of the last 20 winners were YEATS isnt for me now he is an 8 year old. The trend will be tested as you can't help but admire GEORDIELAND who has just won the Sandown Henry 2nd Stakes a race that has provided 10 of the last 20 winners of this race. I think we can rule out the four big outsiders who are all 50/1 and more. EASTERN ANTHEM comes from a 12f race and thats a serious problem up by a full mile in distance just 13 days after running.
The obvious alternatives against the 8 year olds look to be PATKAI or VERACITY. The fact PATKAI was beaten at
odds on last time doesnt worry me as many horses beaten in
the Sandown race came out and beat the horse that beat them that day in this race. The issue with PATKAI is whether he will be his Sires first winner beyond 2 miles. That worries me a lot. There must be a big doubt about him staying. For this reason VERACITY is given the vote. The 8 year old statistic will never be more vulnerable and may well get busted in this race as I have a doubtful stayer and a Godolphin horse as my only refuge. Whilst I think GEORDIELAND will finish ahead of YEATS and PATKAI I cant bring myself to go with him as an 8 year old because of those 537 Group 1 races. I have no options but to select VERACITY Each Way
SELECTION - VERACITY Each Way
****************************************************
****************************************************
ASCOT 4.20
BRITANNIA STAKES (HERITAGE HANDICAP)
(CLASS 2) (3yo,0-105) 1m
6/1 Desert Creek, 8/1 Roman Republic, 9/1 Brief Encounter
10/1 Invisible Man, 16/1 Crackdown, 16/1 River Captain, 16/1 Rockhampton, 18/1 Mirrored, 20/1 Eastern Empire, 20/1 Hyades20/1 Secret Society, 25/1 Deadly Secret, 25/1 Emirates Roadshow 25/1 Espiritu, 25/1 Fareer, 25/1 Magaling, 25/1 Mutamaashi, 25/1 Uniquely Poised, 33/1 Suruor, 40/1 Satwa Laird, 40/1 Shampagne 40/1 Tarzan, 50/1 Markyg, 50/1 Mishrif, 50/1 Tartan Gunna 66/1 Aurorian, Big Bay, Tudor Key, Viva Ronaldo, 100/1 Canwinn.
* The Brittania Handicap is an 8f handicap for 3yo males
* There has been 18 renewals of this race
* There should be a solid shortlist based on past trends
* Your bet has more chance if he can pass these angles
* No past winner had more than 12 previous runs
* 17 of the 18 winners managed a 1-2-3 place last time out
* Those that were not had a 1-184 record
* No past winners came up from 6 furlongs or down from 12f
* Horses that drop from 10f races have a weak 1-80 record
* Horses with 1 run this season won 2 of the 18 renewals
* Those that had 1 run and a run within 7 weeks were 0-37
* No horse won this with 5 or more runs that season
* No past winner had been tested in Group 1 or 2 before
* Horses at 33/1 and over have a weak 1-197 record
* I would oppose horses beaten in maidens
* I would oppose horses from maidens with 5 + runs
* Horses from 3yo handicaps over 8f had a 3-130 record
* Those with 5 + runs doing this were 0-103
* They do not extract enough improvement at the trip
* Of those from 8f handicaps none had 3 runs or 1 that year
* Horses with 9 + runs from handicaps were 1-69
* Horses that came from Listed Class or better had a 0-38 record
SHORTLIST
* DESERT CREEK is similar to 3 past winners
* INVISIBLE MAN is similar to 1 past winner
* BRIEF ENCOUNTER is similar to 1 past winner
DESERT CREEK and INVISIBLE MAN are drawn very
high and BRIEF ENCOUNTER drawn low. You can never
be sure but I would have to go with a low number so thats
BRIEF ENCOUNTER.
****************************************************
****************************************************
WARWICK 4.45
4/1 Crystallize, 11/2 Gazboolou, 8/1 Diego Rivera, 10/1
Rough Rock, 10/1 Whiteoak Lady, 12/1 Bahamian Kid,
12/1 Highgate Cat, 14/1 Flute Magic, 14/1 Turkish Lokum,
14/1 Yeoman Of England, Tuxedo, Loyal Royal, Star Acclaim.
This is a 7f handicap for 0-68 rated horses. Several here
look unfit or not ready to win. I would oppose Star Acclaim
Whiteoak Lady and Yeoman Of England on fitness grounds.
The Draw puts me off Loyal Royal. BAHAMIAN KID does
not interest me with 1 run this year and an absence from a
high draw. HIGHGATE CAT looks inexperienced. 3yo fillies
have a 1-76 record in these races so TURKISH LOKUM has
to go. FLUTE MAGIC has to go as a 3yo coming up from a
6f race. ROUGH ROCK doesnt interest me coming from 6f.
TUXEDO hasnt been running well enough. I think the market
has this race right. There are 3 horses I can see winning.
Crystallize -Gazboolou - Diego Rivera
I would nominate DIEGO RIVERA as the safest of these three
as he has the best draw and is the only one you could feel very confident would handle cut in the ground. The other two have a suspiciously looking fast ground profile. DIEGO RIVERA is my choice but it is an open race.
****************************************************
****************************************************
ASCOT 4.55
HAMPTON COURT STAKES
(LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m2f
11/8 Freemantle, 7/1 Four Winds, 7/1 Glass Harmonium,
7/1 Monitor Closely, 10/1 Palavicini, 16/1 Cashelgar, 20/1
Spring Of Fame, 25/1 On Our Way, 33/1 Big Bound, 33/1
Satwa Ruby, 50/1 Ra Junior, Too Much Trouble, 200/1 Kaolak.
SELECTION - FREEMANTLE
There has now been 9 renewals of this race but it hasnt been a good trends race so far. All past winners had under 7 runs and I would oppose those that dont such as KAOLAK. I do not want TOO MUCH TROUBLE down from 12f. I would
see RA JUNIOR as potentially unfit. I looked at all horses
like PALAVICINI coming from Listed races but they were
all less exposed and had lighter seasons and PALAVICINI is
a badly weighted horse today. ON OUR WAY -BIG BOUND
and SATWA RUBY are similar types and dont appeal. I do
not want CASHELGAR. The only horses that came up in
trip from 8f or shorter were maiden winners and none like
SPRING OF FAME managed it from a Listed race and none
like FOUR WINDS did it from a conditions race. With only
9 renewals though it's hard to be dogmatic with angles such as these.
FREEMANTLE - GLASS HARMONIUM and MONITOR
CLOSELY were 2nd , 3rd and 4th in the Dante Stakes and I
dont have a problem with either horse and as FREEMANTLE
was much more fancied that day and He did not have a prep
race as the others did you can understand why he's the shortest price horse. FREEMANTLE looks the best option and I'd also consider him strongly in an each way double.
SELECTION - FREEMANTLE
****************************************************
****************************************************
RIPON 5.10
9/4 Alanbrooke, 3/1 Antigua Sunrise, 11/2 Deauville Flyer, 7/1 Lucky Punt, 10/1 Kudu Country, 10/1 Omokoroa, 10/1 Tapis Wizard, 20/1 Madamlily, 20/1 Sharp Sovereign.
Confident the 81 rated ALANBROOKE should outclass
this field in a 12f handicap for 3 year olds. He has had
excuses so far this year in both runs. He looks a better
class of horse. He only has a 0-77 class field to beat and
there are holes in the opposition. KUDU COUNTRY is
a horse with just 1 run this year and an absence. He ought
to outclass LUCKY PUNT whose only won a Class 6 race
at Southwell and has no form on grass. I wouldnt want
OMOKOROA with 1 run this year and a step up in trip.
ANTIGUA SUNRISE is respected as a filly thats won two
oln the trot but she is up in class and grade and has Three
weeks absence and I see ALANBROOKE as better class.
SHARP SOVEREIGN and MADAMLILY dont look good
enough. There are one or two that have small chances
but the Topweight ALANBROOKE should be able to
deal with a big drop in class and conceeding weight to
horses rated a lot lower than he is and will be soon.
SELECTION - ALANBROOKE
****************************************************
****************************************************
WARWICK 5.20
4/1 Full Victory, 5/1 Miss Pelling, 6/1 Charlevoix, 8/1 Cool Ebony, 8/1 Glenridding, 8/1 Magnitude, 8/1 San Antonio, 8/1 Theonebox, 12/1 Wavertree Warrior, 14/1 Obezyana, 66/1 Canary Girl.
There has been 307 similar races to this. First of all take out the badly drawn Canary Girl and WAVERTREE WARRIOR.
Not convinced COOL EBONY will be fit enough as 6 year old
thats exposed with one run this year. SAN ANTONIO has far
too many doubts about him and may not be fit either. Those
horses coming from Claimers were awful. Those from Claimers
over 8f were 0-73 and OBEZYANA fails that. If you take the
307 races and look at fillies like MISS PELLING that drop in distance from 9f or more you get a 5-146 record and since 2001 that was a 0-68 record. MISS PELLING looks unsafe to me. I think this is between 4 horses. CHARLEVOIX - THEONEBOX
FULL VICTORY - GLENRIDDING.
****************************************************
****************************************************
ASCOT 5.30
KING GEORGE V STAKES (HERITAGE HANDICAP)
(CLASS 2) (3yo,0-105) 1m4f
8/1 Johann Zoffany, 8/1 Opinion Poll, 8/1 Zarinski,
9/1 Chiberta King, 10/1 Brunston, 12/1 Highland Glen,
12/1 Polly's Mark, 12/1 Quai D'Orsay, 14/1 Barwell Bridge,
14/1 London Bridge, 16/1 Lasso The Moon, 16/1 Takaatuf,
20/1 Kimberley Downs, 20/1 Topolski, 33/1 Above Average,
40/1 Dubai Crest, Cosmic Sun, Fin Vin De Leu, 66/1 Sky Gate.
SELECTION - ZARINSKI
* This is a 12f Handicap for 3 year olds rated 0-103
* Lighter raced horses are dominant in this race
* I would stay with horses with under 7 career starts
* Those that did not have that had a 1-95 record
* The last horse to win with 7 + runs was in 1990
* This takes out the following runners
* DUBAI CREST - BARWELL BRIDGE - TOPOLSKI
* FIN VIN DE LEU - COSMIC SUN
* No horse came from a handicap in Class 4 or less
* POLLY´S MARK - BRUNSTON - SKY GATE fail this
* The last 21 winners were all 1-2-3-4 last time out
* LONDON BRIDGE - KIMBERLEY DOWNS fail that
* HIGHLAND GLEN - ABOVE AVERAGE fail that
* Horses that raced in Listed or Group class before had a 1-62 record
* QUAI D´ORSAY fails that
* TAKAATUF isnt too bad statistically
* Horses from 10f handicaps like him won 5 races
* Most were high weights. Those with 8st 11lbs or less were 1-60
* If you come from 3yo handicaps you want a high weight
* Those with 8st 11lbs or less were 2-147
* LASSO THE MOON may lack the class with bottomweight
* Horses from 12f handicaps won 3 races
* They all had at least 3 runs that season
* CHIBERTA KING - OPINION POLL fail that
SHORTLIST
JOHANN ZOFFANY
ZARINSKI
SELECTION - ZARINSKI
****************************************************
****************************************************
WARWICK 5.50
5/1 Al Rayanah, 11/2 Hits Only Cash, 6/1 Distant Pleasure, 8/1 Classic Blue, 10/1 Barodine, 12/1 Croeso Cusan, 12/1 Private Soldier, 14/1 Aggbag, 14/1 Zain, 16/1 Empire Seeker, 16/1 Waldorf, 20/1 My Jeanie, 20/1 Tobago Reef, 25/1 Fairly Honest, 25/1 The Grey One, 33/1 Lordship, 33/1 Sorrel Point.
Apprentice Handicap over a Mile. AL RAYANAH has a horrible
draw in Stall 17 and just 1 run this year and an absence so he hasto go. Take out the other badly drawn SORREL POINT. Take out the horses that should be unfit such as ZAIN - TOBAGO REEF - PRIVATE SOLDIER -MY JEANIE -CLASSIC BLUE - DISTANT PLEASURE . I looked at horses like LORDSHIP up from 7f trips with under 3 runs that year.When they had 13 or more starts they were 0-27 so he is out. CROESO CUSAN comes out badly as a 4yo filly down in trip. Neither FAIRLY HONEST or THE GREY ONE have been in good enough form. WALDORF is all wrong coming down from a 12f race. EMPIRE SEEKER has had too many stable moves for such a lightly raced horse and I dont like his chance. I
see three decent profiles
BARODINE - HITS ONLY CASH - AGGBAG
SELECTION
BARODINE win Bet
AGGBAG saver Bet
I think BARODINE is the fittest horse and can defy a wide draw.
****************************************************
****************************************************
FFOS LAS 6.20
FREEBETS.CO.UK "NATIONAL HUNT"
NOVICES' HURDLE (CLASS 3) (4yo+) 2m4f
15/8 Plunkett, 9/4 Ffos Las Diamond, 9/2 Flexi Time,
15/2 Older And Wiser, 10/1 Ballyvesey, 14/1 Francly Flora,
25/1 Ballygulleen, 33/1 Mexican Honeymoon, 33/1 Sylroy,
50/1 Fealing Real, 100/1 Tara Gale, 100/1 Tubby Nugget.
This is a 2m 4f Novice Hurdle. Between June and August
there has been 470 similar races run. Compare the records
of certain types of horses. FFOS LAS DIAMOND is aged
5 and has just won a Maiden hurdle. I looked at all horses
like that since 1998 and found a brilliant 14-26 record a
strike rate of 54% and thats clearly a serious advantage.
Horses like FLEXI TIME aged 5 coming from a Bumper
had a miserable record. Those that ran within 7 weeks as
he did had a 1-127 record. Therefore FLEXI TIME is a
big negative and FFOS LAS DIAMOND a big positive. I
dont fancy OLDER AND WISER. I have plenty of respect
for PLUNKETT - BALLYVESSEY and FRANCLY FLORA
but I would see FFOS LAS DIAMOND as the best option.
****************************************************
****************************************************
LEICESTER 8.10
WINDMILL HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (4yo+,0-85) 1m60y
5/2 Cara's Request, 7/2 Vainglory, 4/1 Effigy, 6/1 Resurge, 8/1 Cotswolds, 12/1 Mount Hermon, 33/1 Crocodile Bay, 33/1 Regional Counsel.
* This is a 0-83 Handicap over a Mile
* June has seen 383 similar races run
* CROCODILE BAY doesnt appeal
* Not up in trip with an absence
* This type of handicap should be beyond him
* REGIONAL COUNSEL hasnt done enough to win
* MOUNT HERMON doesnt appeal
* Not with 1 run this year and a 54 day break
* EFFIGY is fine statistically
* I think there will be better handicapped horses though
* I think he may be vulnerable to better treated horses
* RESURGE may also be vulnerable to better class horses
* CARA´S REQUEST is interesting and lightly raced
* I would take a Neutral view about him
* COTSWOLDS is also lightly raced
* Again I would be Neutral about him
* VAINGLORY would be my choice
* I feel he has the class to win a 0-82 handicap
* I tipped him two runs ago at 16/1
* That was in a 0-99 handicap when running well
* He then ran well in a 0-90 handicap at Goodwood
* He has come down a lot in the weights
* VAINGLORY may be able to give the weight away
****************************************************
****************************************************