No Account Bet


It has been a quiet week so far as get to Friday. The
winner yesterday recovered stakes from some earlier
losers this week so there won't be much in it but the
forecasts are awful and we have a weekend of severe
rain and soft ground to deal with. I think it's best to
stay with smaller "mentions" today given conditions.

Looking at highlighting top of the message winners
I was tempted by FOUR STRONG WINDS each way at 4/1 in the 1.05pm Exeter but with only 3 runners that are under 40/1 if feels as if I'd be pulling a stroke to suggest such a burglary bet that will be hard to get on and it would be just too billious to bear if he unplaced so I think I will leave him up to you.

I have backed LIGHT SLEEPER 5/4 in the 5.50pm at
Wolverhampton. My only danger is Simla Sunset but I also intend to have a second bet in the race as a sort of saver that could also provide two winners as I plan to bet Simla Sunset to win a match bet with Tejime as well.I just think LIGHT SLEEPER may have too much class.

I fancy SONHADOR to win an awful sprint tonight at
Wolverhampton in the 6.20. He's around 7/2 to win
and I think thats a good risk to your money. If he had
been a little bit less exposed I'd have gone for a bigger
stake but I think he is a Top of the Message but Non
Account strength. I see the day best left to 2 mentions
both running on the sand tonight.

Wolverhampton 5.50 - LIGHT SLEEPER 5/4

Wolverhampton 6.20 - SONHADOR 7/2


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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G


There was no Full bet yesterday just a horse to mention
but pleased to see it win easily. All that did really was put us about level in a weak where there has only been some low key bets and some tough racing. Being level this week is not the worst position to be in considering the weather and how tough the jumps has been.


Going to start with a preview of ASCOT today. After it
follows a smaller look at EXETER & KELSO and there
is only 1 race I liked at Wolverhampton after that.



ASCOT 12.55

Nicholas Cunningham Memorial "National Hunt"
Novices´ Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+) 2m3f110y

7/4 Red Harbour, 9/2 Volador, 6/1 Priors Glen,
7/1 Ballybach, Proud Presence, 14/1 Miller´s Dawn,
16/1 Ashfield´s Dream, 16/1 Weapon Of War,
16/1 Wembley Way, Voramar Two, 50/1 Sean Thornton.

There has been 170 similar Novice Hurdles to this one at
this time of year. Horses coming from bumpers first time
out aged 6 or more won two of the 170 races. However if
they had not won before or got beaten last time out there
was a 0-73 record. Therefore PROUD PRESENCE has to
go as does VORMAR TWO. Staying with Bumper horses
ASHFIELD'S DREAM has a weak profile. If you look at
Horses that won Bumpers last time out there were several
winners but none had 3 or more runs like VOLADOR and
he is also unimpressive statistically. WEMBLEY WAY is
not for me as a maiden 4 year old from a bumper. There
are 3 runners I think will provide the winner. As long as
the ground doesnt deterioate BALLYBACH has a chance.
I also like PRIORS GLEN's profile and RED HARBOUR
as well much as I would have liked him to have ran better
last time out. My gut feeling is BALLYBACH may not
stay. I think RED HARBOUR will win. There could be
a decent split stake bet in the race.

Win Bet on RED HARBOUR 6/4
Place Bet on PRIORS GLEN 11/8 +

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The Beginners Chase at 1.30pm doesnt interest me as I
have about 4 horses with "Luke warm" profiles and not
one has a great profile and I cant see any negatives. My
feeling about ZEMSKY was that he is a bit inexperienced.
Horses like him coming from Novice Hurdles first time
out were much better with a lot more runs and although
he has a Hunter Chase run and several point runs he does
not have many runs under rules and I didnt think he stood
out on his profile at all. Forced to guess without any strong profiles my best guess would be PRINCE TAIME.


The 2.05pm is an Introductory Hurdle for horses that have
not ridden in more than one hurdle race before. This race is is a mess statistically as they have messed around with the conditions of this race and there has been many gaps in the years the races was run. I have found only 24 similar races at this time of year. The record of unraced horses in these races was only 1-18 so INVENTOR has that to prove much as he was a smart flat horse. VINO GRIEGO is a 4yo from a Bumper and I would rather look elsewhere. Last Time Out winners had an excellent record. Those aged 4 or more had a 5-12 record when winning last time out so because of that I will go with MANYRIVERSTOCROSS in an unusual race.


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ASCOT 2.40

Allied Irish Bank (GB) Private Banking
Handicap Chase (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-135) 2m3f

7/2 Haar, 4/1 Double Dizzy, 4/1 Go Silver Bullet,
4/1 Royal Wedding, 8/1 Commemoration Day,
9/1 Psychomodo, 10/1 Soulard, 25/1 Island Life.

This is a 2m 3f Handicap Chase for horses rated 0-135.
There has been 117 similar races at this time of year.
There were only 2 winners aged 5 in the 117 races in a
2-30 record. HAAR is only a 5 year old. Its not a great
record. None of the 5 year olds that won stepped up in
distance from 2 miles as he has to. He may well have
won last time out before falling but he did fall and he
has been raised in the handicap for a race he didn't win
and I dont see any reason to bet him when he faces a
better class of race. ISLAND LIFE doesnt look a safe
bet. There were 5 horses aged 6 that won first time out
but all 5 had form in a Grade 1 race and SOULARD has
not. I dont think PSYCHOMODO did enough last time.
Being beaten 51 lengths on his seasonal debut suggests
to me he may need more runs to be fit especially when
he is on a stiff mark as he is. ROYAL WEDDING has
a chance and ran in the same race as PSYCHOMODO
first time out this season. I put ROYAL WEDDING's
profile through 117 races and it is doubtful whether he
did enough last time.

STRONG PROFILES

DOUBLE DIZZY has a strong profile. I looked at all
exposed horses that had a couple of runs this season in
handicap chases around 21f. When they ran within 2
weeks like DOUBLE DIZZY they were 7-22 and He
looks strong statistically. The one thing I dont like
is a Career High mark as he keeps nudging up slowly
in the handicap without winning leaving him on his
highest career mark. COMMEMORATION DAY is
fit and running well and because of that he is worth
a place on the shortlist. COMMEMORATION DAY
has something about his profile I dislike. If you look
at 117 similar races and look for exposed horses like
him who come from 2m Handicap Chases you find a
poor 1-42 record. I would give him the benefit of the
doubt with recent runs but it stops him being an ideal
type. GO SILVER BULLET has 3 wins all at 2 miles
and all in lower grade and his task is to try and win
over further today in a better class of race. His run
at Carlisle last time over 2m 4f gives him a strong
chance of winning a race like this.

SELECTION - GO SILVER BULLET

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ASCOT 3.50

Allied Irish Bank (GB) Handicap Hurdle
(CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-145) 2m

5/2 Zabeel Palace, 6/1 Oldrik, 7/1 Pascha Bere, 15/2 Mutual Friend, 8/1 Sunsetten, 10/1 Secret Tune, 12/1 Tender Falcon, 14/1 Premier Dane, 14/1 Son Of Flicka, 16/1 Picot De Say, 20/1 Show Winner, 33/1 Alph.

* This is a 0-144 Handicap Hurdle over 2 Miles
* Ascot has had 23 similar races in November
* There has been 116 similar races elsewhere
* This is a race for lightly raced horses
* The past winners of this had the following hurdle runs
* 6-5-4-11-8-6-3-9-5
* The past winners of this had the following handicap runs
* 2-3-0-4-3-0-0-1-0
* You want a lightly raced hurdler with few handicap runs
* In 23 Ascot races horses with 13 + runs were just 1-67
* Horses aged 7 or more had a poor 1-56 record
* ALPH looks far too old aged 12
* In 116 similar races horses aged 9 + were just 1-67
* TENDER FALCON looks wrong aged 9
* PICOT DE SAY looks wrong as an exposed 7yo
* Especially as he has to come down 5f in distance
* PREMIER DANE is wrong as an exposed 7yo
* Exposed horses with 1 run this year like him struggled
* They had a 1-39 record in the 116 years
* OLDRIK has that to overcome as well
* He is exposed with 1 run this season
* He also has a career high mark and looks vulnerable

POSSIBLES

* MUTUAL FRIEND looks a bit exposed with 13 runs
* He has also had 8 handicap chase starts
* It wont be easy to defy a mark of 144 and 11st 12lbs
* In 23 Ascot races horses with 11st 10lbs or more did badly
* They are a 0-27 record and its asking a lot form him
* SECRET TUNE is not too bad statistically
* He has had more handicap starts than is ideal
* He doesnt look that well handicapped either
* SECRET TUNE wont want any rain at all
* He is a small horse and wont want it soft
* Game horse but he may have reached his limits
* SHOW WINNER is similar to one of the 116 winners
* He has a lot to prove after two poor runs
* ZABEEL PALACE is a bit on the old side aged 7
* He has won handicaps off 82-95-102
* There was no shame in his defeat off 115 last time
* Today however he is trying to win off a mark of 121
* He moves from a 0-125 to a 0-144
* ZABEEL PALACE has never run in Class 2 before
* He has 5 runs in handicaps more than any recent winner
* I give him a fair chance but he could be vulnerable
* PASCHA BERE has a chance but doesnt look thrown in
* He has 7 handicap runs and may have been assesed right
* SON OF FLICKA is hard to read coming from a chase
* Lightly raced he gets the benefit of the doubt
* Not convinced he is handicapped to win
* He is also a small horse which I dont like
I cant offer a strong negative against him though

SELECTION

* SUNSETTEN has a strong profile
* I would not fault him statistically


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E X E T E R & K E L S O


Just a few thoughts in a few races at Kelso
and Exeter today.


KELSO 12.15

I consider LITTLE WIZARD and RIVER MUSIC both
Negatives. I am making HUMBIE a negative as well as
horses from maiden hurdles with 1 run were 0-12 in all
similar races and I thik he is generally underraced. I am
neutral about COMETHTHEHOUR and MINI BECK. I dont see any reason to bet them and I dont fancy them but I wouldnt make then negatives. WYMOTT has the best profile and is the only Positive. Should win this race with his profile unless temprement is an issue.


KELSO 12.45

SUNARRI - I am neutral about him
BISHOPS HEIR - Wouldnt see him as a selection
MIDNITE BLEWS - Think he has a place chance
BUBBLY BREEZE - Statistically he is a negative
TOP IT ALL - Watch the market. Could run well.

I think SUNARRI should win but the biggest danger
for me is the ground. The sire was better on faster
ground. He has ran well on ground that was on the
softer. I dont see a better option.


EXETER 1.05

Impossible race to call. THERE'S NO PANIC fell
last time after 3 hurdles. I expect he is a bit better
class of horse than SONG SUNG BLUE but just how
he recovers from that fall is the key to the race. I
think the best option is FOUR STRONG WINDS
each way given the frame of the race and the odds.


KELSO 1.15

5/4 Charingworth, 5/2 Fabalu, 11/2 Waterski, 8/1 Bay Cherry, 14/1 Prosecco, 16/1 Maidstone Mixture, 33/1 Witness Run.

This is a Novice Handicap Chase. If you look at horses
that won first time out this year like CHARINGWORTH
in a "non handicap" chase - when they have between 3-8
career starts as he does they have a 4-6 record. The exact
record was W W W W 2 3 - and the horse that was "3rd"
in that record was the only one that came from a Maiden
Chase as CHARINGWORTH does. That means technically
he is unproven but I liked his profile. FABALU has a good
profile as well. I ran all 7 year olds through his profile and there were several similar winners and he's a serious danger. WATERSKI is a positive statistically but FABALU's hurdle form looks much better and if he jumps fluently I can see him outclassing them. I feel its between CHARINGWORTH and FABALU. At the prices I will risk FABALU.

EXETER 2.15

6 runner Novice Handicap Chase and I cant match any of
the runners to a similar winner. STRADBROOK is far from
certain to stay. Some of these are a bit exposed. I think it is a mess. Best of the bad previews was IRISH LEGEND so
I will go with him without any conviction.

EXETER 2.50

Tricky Handicap Chase. There wont be too many that can
win despite an intimidating field. Several here look like they didnt do enough last time. FORTY FIVE -LAUSTRA BAD
and SNINFIA come into that category. PASS ME A DIME
doesnt appeal as a seasonal debutant aged 10. There is no
way to judge SIGNATORY accuately but I think he should
be avoided and think he is unsafe. PAVILLON BLEU looks
very complicated to assess but he doesnt have as strong a
profile as you would want. Given all these profiles I thought GREEN BELT ELITE was the most solid. I can only find 1 horse aged 5 like him that ran in a similar race winning with 1 run that year. That horse won and was a very similar type so I would make GREEN BELT ELITE the choice.


EXETER 3.25

13/8 Tara Taylor, 11/4 Aconitum, 4/1 Alldunnandusted,
7/1 Randjo, 16/1 Merry Music, 20/1 Power Shared,
25/1 Callerlilly, 25/1 Tarabela, 40/1 Paktol Des Brosses.

This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle. There has been 57 of
these races at this time of year. There are only 9 runners
and with 3 hard horses to fancy in Callerlilly - Tarabela
and Paktol Des Brosses there could be an each way bet in
the race. The favourite TARA TAYLOR has chances but
she is a Mare - I found 4 winning mares in these races but
none had 1 run this season - none came from a handicap
hurdle and she has pleny of weight with 11st 12lbs for a
horse thats described as "small". MERRY MUSIC is older
than every winner of a Novice Handicap run in November
before. RANDJO doesnt come out well as a 4 year old
from a maiden hurdle. POWER SHARED is not too bad
statistically but his last run on the Flat which was his first run in 573 days was awful and his wellbeing has to be the biggest worry. I think there are 2 each way options in the race. I ran ACONITIM through all similar races. If you look at 4 year olds that came from Novice Handicaps
when having 7-8 career starts and having never won a
race before you find a 2-2 record. I also see a very good
record from horses like ALLDUNNANDUSTED winning recent 21f handicap hurdles (3-4) and he also looks strong.
I think it comes down to whether ALLDUNNANDUSTED will handle the ground or not. I think the best bet has to be
ACONITIM each way 5/1 with his recent run.

SELECTION - ACONITIM E/W 4/1


KELSO 3.35

I think LE PLATINO has a reasonable profile but is far
from spectacular. I looked at 273 similar races and didnt
find a winner like LOCKED INTHEPOCKET. I would
give KING OF CONFUSION another chance after his
last run when running out.

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WOLVERHAMPTON 6.20

Best Odds Guaranteed At ladbrokes.com Apprentice Handicap
(Div I) (CLASS 6) (3yo+ 0-52) 5f216y

11/4 Sonhador, 3/1 Boundless Applause, 8/1 All You Need
10/1 Edge End, 10/1 Ride A White Swan, 12/1 Sir Loin
14/1 Carnival Dream, 14/1 Dubai To Barnsley, Le Reve Royal
25/1 Tag Team, 33/1 Gower.

* This is a handicap over 6f for 0-52 rated horses
* November has seen 58 of these handicaps in Class 6-7
* BOUNDLESS APPLAUSE is a 3yo filly
* Fillies aged 3 had a miserable 1-106 record in 58 races
* That makes her a negative but shes also absent 62 days
* All fillies of all aged absent a month or more were 0-62
* I can't have BOUNDLESS APPLAUSE because of that
* She also has to overcome stall 13 which wont be easy
* LE REVE ROYAL is a negative for the same reasons
* She is also a 3yo filly and has a 127 day absence
* CARNIVAL DREAM has a poor profile
* No filly came from 8f or longer in the 58 races
* Fillies like her beaten 10 + lengths last time were 0-59
* EDGE END looks a horse that could be vulnerable
* He has to come from a 5f race with just 2 runs this year
* Thats a difficult task and he also comes from a seller
* None of the 58 winners came from selling grade
* None came from a 5f race with under 7 runs that year
* EDGE END looks opposable
* Horses absent 10 weeks or more had a 1-65 record
* RIDE A WHITE SWAN doesnt appeal absent 161 days
* TAG TEAM has to go aged 8 and absent 144 days
* SIR LOIN also looks very vulnerable to fitness
* He is an 8 year old absent 62 days
* DUBAI TO BARNSLEY could easily lack fitness
* He has only raced once since July
* That was a 31 length defeat and over a month ago
* I dont think he will be fit today
* GOWER has a worrying profile
* Well beaten in all his recent races
* Being well beaten just 3 days ago looks a poor sign
* I would give ALL YOU NEED a chance
* He has to come down from 8f to 6f though
* Thats far from easy for an exposed horse
* He has also lost all 30 times he ran in a handicap
* I think he is a danger but he is far from strong

SELECTION - SONHADOR

I think there are some genuine negatives in this
race. I think a 3 year old that won last time out
like SONHADOR has got to be considered. He
won a poor race last time but he looked like He
could progress again from that. I can't pretend
we are looking at a rapidly improving 3 year
old but he is unexposed and he has much more
going for him than almost all of these and I'd
see him as the best bet in an awful race.

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