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Scrappy message but 3 big previews in the message and
two of them are in very interesting races. I have previewed the seller at Bath but I dont think I've made a good enough case there. The horse I wanted to bet probably wont stay and I have ended up with a selection thats just got fewer flaws than anything else rather than an outstanding profile so I suggest we ignore that race and concentrate on the other two races today.


I am betting TUNGSTEN STRIKE at 8/1 in the 4.05pm race
at Newmarket. The horse is complicated. On the one hand I
feel I have some brilliant negatives for the favourites in the race and feel its a race I have to play in. Funnily enough this horse was my first negative in the race as the contest has never gone to a horse like him before. After further study I came back to him and felt he had a brilliant chance. He is a battle weary and probably tired old stager used to much different types of race and I wouldnt trust him as far as I can throw him. I have made a very good case for him though and think he has to be worth a bet at the price. He comes with plenty of risk. Not making him a selection as there are not 8 runners and no each way options. I think he is a great price. I am betting CYBORG as a saver at 5/1 as well.


I am going to bet WHISPERED TIMES each way in the 6.20
at Newcastle. I have this between IBMAB and him and the
weights suggest IBMAB should win. I dont see it like that. Its a messy race as just 8 run and we could see non runners. There is no control over prices. His trainer Patrick Haslam runs 3 in the race and complicates things. One of those races and horses where its much safer to wait until later and see what the market offers as I wouldnt want any heavy rain at Newcastle. If the ground doesnt go soft there WHISPERED TIMES is worth a bet. If there are 8 runners I will bet him each way but if not I will have a win bet. I dont want to tip him 7 horses before the race when the weather can beat me and I have no price control and its such a weak market.


Saturdays Message will probably be in a strange format as its going to take far longer to do than usual looking at the cards so It looks like it will be one that ends up far different from the typical Saturday Message. I'm going to change my Staking Plan in the Next few days as well. I want to change it as its no longer working well. I will probably do that after the Bank Holiday. As for today
it was a horrible message to compile and I hate it.

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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G


Plenty of issues in yesterdays message. The only selection
lost and I think it was pretty obvious he suffered from the
run he had the day before and couldnt recover from it and
that was always the danger and there is no way of knowing
how it affects them. Sometimes as in Lordship yesterday
they run better because of it. Whether you enjoyed or hated
the sight of Wednesdays selection Lordship winning easily
at a big price will come down to whether you had a small bet on him as suggested yesterday if only to recover stakes. It was a Strong message yesterday as with the day before with the 2 selections no reward at all for some good work so we deserve a bit of better fortune as we go into the weekend.


I dont see anything at FFOS LAS today and no race I felt I
could sort out mainly because of the hugh number of Irish
runners who bring Irish Form with them so I feel its a card
I should just ignore and stay with the Flat Racing. The card at HAMILTON has been abandoned this morning.

Messy sort of messages. Three Previews in Three races that
interested me. The rest of it is not much use and it will be a day that comes down to the 2 big Newcastle and Newmarket previews and what we can get out of those.


T H I R S K

Not the best of cards at Thirsk so I want to rapidly deal
with it and Move on. The Opening race is far too hard.

The 2pm is a Selling race and hampered slightly by the
fact that there has been so few of these races run at this
time of year. All I can say here is that I would have been
against Gap Princess as a filly from 5f with an absence
and opposed Steelcut who is best at 5 furlongs. I would've
also opposed Pacific Pride down in trip- Steel Blue as he
comes from a weaker seller over 5f and I didnt see either
Whiteoak Lady or Baby Rock as fit enough. They would
have been my negatives and I see one of the other fancied
runners as likely to provide the winner of the race. I felt
MUTAMARED would probably win and JOHN KEATS
would probably place and I would split my stake that way.

I have nothing illuminating to say in the next two races as
they are two divisions of a maiden and I dont know enough
about the races. I'm also leaving the 7f handicap at 3.45pm
as there are too many runners and not enough negatives in
the race but I would have argued that any winning 4 year old who is unexposed are often excellent bets in handicaps so in a rough race Apollo Shark and Mujaadel are clearly towards the top of the list as potential winners

The 4.15pm is a Staying race. I would have rejected a few in the race. Sphinx may not be fit and Ragamuffin Man could also need the run looking underraced. Red Wine doesnt make any appeal as a 10 year old up from a 12f race. Inchpast isnt my first choice with an absence and Danzatrice wouldnt offer me enough either on a career high mark and a 0-14 record in this class. I suspect one of the other 3 will win. I respect the topweight Dolly Penrose but SAGA DE TERCEY wants lots of respect despite being a little inexperienced and BAAN has to go well with his backclass and current form.

Leaving the Apprentice race at 4.45pm and unusually most
of the runners seem to pass most of the angles required for
a race like this so I feel its pretty open and impenatrable. I would oppose the lowest drawn horses Wicked Wilma and Grudge and I would also oppose RYEDANE as well as he is coming down in trip and exposed horses without a recent run within a week score very badly in these races and he is the only trip dropper. Those three would not appeal but I dont feel I have strong weapons in this race.

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N E W M A R K E T

It may be an 8 race card at Newmarket but the first five races are juvenile races and there is nothing much we can do there so most of the card can just be swept aside. I dont have the angles or the evidence in the maiden races. I did look quickly at the Nursery at 2.20 and would have shortlisted two in the race in Deauville Post and Whippers Love but the race doesnt interest me. Only one race interests me there.


NEWMARKET 4.05

SIP-PLC.COM IDEAS, ADVICE AND CAPITAL
HANDICAP(CLASS 3)(3yo+ 0-95) 1m6f175y

11/4 Merchant Of Dubai, 7/2 Recession Proof, 4/1 Cyborg,
4/1 Trip The Light, 8/1 Tungsten Strike, 20/1 Rugell,
25/1 Royal Trooper.

This is a 0-95 handicap over just short of 15 furlongs and it has a Long history that I feel I should completely ignore. Its a race that has never gone to an exposed horse before. All 43 that tried lost as younger and lighter raced horses dominated. You would think I would then rule out and avoid the only one in this race that is exposed and thats TUNGSTEN STRIKE. When I first looked at the race he was my first negative but I ruled everything else out and came back to him and realised that TUNGSTEN STRIKE may just be a great value bet.

* August and September have seen 406 similar races
* Thats 406 Handicaps between 14f and 16f
* Horses from 11f or shorter won just 5 of the 406 races
* They had a 5-209 record and only lightly raced horses did it
* Horses from 11f or less with under 9 runs were 5-84
* Horses from 11f or less with over 9 runs were 0-125

So many in this race are coming up dramatically in distance
which is interesting. RECESSION PROOF comes from a 10f
race and we know that the only horses that managed that
had under 9 career starts. RECESSION PROOF has had 13
runs so already looks a bit overexposed to be coming up in
distance and I think he has questions to answer and he does
not look that well treated for a 3 year old on a career high mark. Statistically he is vulnerable and rejected. RUGELL has a weak profile coming from a 10f race as well and I'd not see him as the right type to overcome that. He lacks handicap form and has only had 2 runs this year and I am against him. MERCHANT OF DUBAI is yet another one
in this race that comes from 10f. These types need to be
very lightly raced and none stepped up to win a similar
race with more than 9 runs and MERCHANT OF DUBAI
has had more runs with 13 starts. More than that though
he only has 1 run this season as well and no horse had won
with 1 run this year coming up so far in distance and I see
that as a worrying profile. I'm opposing all the above trip
jumpers as I cant find a similar winner to any of them in
406 similar races. Plenty of 3 year olds have won similar
races after being well beaten last time out but none did it having ran as recently as ROYAL TROOPER and he isn't
for me after a 27 lengths defeat last Friday which is not a
lot of recovery time. TRIP THE LIGHT is stronger from
a statistical point of view than all the above runners but he is far from perfect by any means and I see plenty of issues for him. I looked at 4 year olds coming from 12f handicaps like him. Those as exposed as him had a modest record and I see him as "Unimpressive" statistically. Not keen on his handicap mark either. He has had a plenty of wins in a 15 month period and he just keeps edging up in both class and weight. TRIP THE LIGHT is on a career high mark and in a better race than he has ever contested before and I see him as needing a Career best to win and his profile doesnt suggest he will do that.

SHORTLIST

TUNGSTEN STRIKE
CYBORG

CYBORG is unusual as a lightly raced 5 year old. I wouldnt
say he fit the trends like a glove either. He does have some question marks to answer. I wasnt impressed with his profile but at least there were similar winners to him in other races and you cant say that about many of these. He will probably be a quirky type that will need the race to be run a certain way but he looks an important runner to shortlist.

TUNGSTEN STRIKE has a big chance in this. He's normally
seen in Listed and Group races and its unusual to see him in a handicap. 20 days ago he ran in a handicap at Ascot and that was his first run in a handicap since June 2005 assuming you ignore the Melbourne Cup. TUNGSTEN STRIKE lost quite comfortably 20 days ago beaten 10 lengths but he will still have needed that. It was only his 4th run of the year and last year he won on his 5th run of the year in a Listed class. He has his fifth run of the year today. I think he would have needed that race. He lost by 10 lengths. That was a 0-100 handicap though with more runners and this is a lot easier. After all if you think about it he comes from a 0-100 and this is a 0-92 handicap where the topweight has problems. This is a big drop in class for TUNGSTEN STRIKE. He is the only horse that doesnt have to step up in distance. He will be a hard horse to read. He is old and battle weary and I have no idea what he wants or needs with regard to headgear.
I do know he has the class. I do know very few runners can be fancied. I do know the price is worth a bet. I have to go with TUNGSTEN STRIKE as the bet here.

SELECION - TUNGSTEN STRIKE
SAVER - CYBORG


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N E W C A S T L E


I thought about doing the Apprentice Handicap at 5.20 but just decided that I would stay with some easier races. I did have a few minutes on the race running a few profiles and I would have seen some horses as opposable. No "dynamic" trends or I would have typed them up I several I dont like. WHO'S SHIRL and NABRA are weak. YORKSHIRE BLUE - WHERE'S REILEY are also not strong. KHEYLIDE and ITS A MANS WORLD look wrong as well. Wouldnt have selected MICKY MAC either. I think the winner of this race will be one of the other runners. AVEROO is the intersting one. Well Handicapped. Had been out of sorts
before a gamble last time when he failed by just a Nose and as he comes out again today compensation could well awate.

The Novice Race at 5.50pm has a nasty small field and I dont fully trust my angles here so not bothering with the race. Had I done it I would have opposed KEYTA BONITA as I didnt see it as an advantage to drop from an Auction race with three runs. I wouldnt have selected MR GRINCH or THEYMISTIM either. Again it would have been one of the other runners.



NEWCASTLE 6.20

PHOENIX SECURITY CLAIMING STAKES
(CLASS 6)(2yo) 7f

2/1 Ibmab, 5/2 Rescent, 9/2 Whispered Times, 12/1
Cygnet Committee, 14/1 Elie Shore, 20/1 Charmaxjoanne,
25/1 Lord's Seat, 33/1 Maiwand.

* This is a Claimer for 2 year olds over 7f
* August and September have seen 38 of these races
* Unraced horses have a 0-36 record in 38 races
* ELIE SHORE fails that and is rejected
* Horses with 1 career start also score very badly
* None came from 5f races or were beaten 10 + lengths
* CHARMAXJOANNE fails that and looks very weak
* MAIWAND doesnt appeal to me
* Fillies beaten 10 + lengths last time like her were very poor
* LORD'S SEAT ran 4 days ago and lost by over 15 lengths
* Horses beaten 10 + lengths within a weak were 0-36
* He also scores badly from a 6f Claimer
* Horses that come from 2yo sellers are interesting
* These horses had a 7-147 record
* However with under 3 career runs they were 0-49
* RESCENT fails that with two runs
* Thats understandable as a statistic
* If they are in sellers so quickly they cant be much good
* Horses that came from 6f sellers had a 0-34 record in 38 races
* RESCENT fails that and has already been rejected
* CYGNET COMMITTEE also fails that
* Horses that came from sellers needed a recent run
* Those without a run within 2 weeks had a 0-62 record
* CYGNET COMMITTEE - RESCENT both fail that too
* Since 1992 there has been 82 of these races all year round
* Horses from sellers with under 3 runs were 1-96
* That underpins the negative for RESCENT
* IBNAB comes from a Claiming race
* 5 winners do that in 38 races
* You can argue none won last time out (0-7)
* You can argue none came from 7f claimers (0-14)
* Not strong trends and I wouldnt rule him out on that alone
* I am neutral about IBNAB
* WHISPERED TIMES comes from a 6f Nursery
* With 4 runs and a recent run he comes out best
* I thought he had the strongest profile
* The soft ground probably counted against him last time
* He wasnt beaten far though and I think he is in Pole position
* WHISPERED TIMES would be my choice each way




Finally at Newcastle I see EL AMEEN as a good each way
double horse in the Maiden at 6.50pm. He was beaten at 2/5
in a Mile maiden at Pontefract but connections felt He didnt get home that day and dropped to 7f he has a good chance of beating the favourite Awesome Surprise who has an obvious chance. Thats the way I would play the race. EL AMEEN in an each way double.


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B A T H

I plan to have a crack at the selling race at 6.10pm but not much else stands out on the card.

BATH 6.10

SPORTINGBET.COM HEROS
SELLING STAKES(CLASS 6)(3-4yo) 1m3f144y

4/1 Noordhoek Kid, 5/1 Abulharith, 11/2 Clovis,
6/1 Location, 9/1 Boffin, Soul Singer, Rose Of Coma,
11/1 Berrynarbor, 12/1 Ingenue, 14/1 Persistent,
16/1 Special Chapter, 25/1 Ducal Daisey, Errol Flynn,
40/1 Peal Park, 50/1 First Maid, 100/1 Alannah.

* This is a selling race just short of 12f
* There has been 9 renewals of this race
* There has been 56 similar selling races at other tracks
* Thats 56 Sellers between 11f and 13f in August and September
* You want to avoid the Inexperienced horses
* None had under 3 career runs
* DUCAL DAISEY has to go as unraced
* FIRST MAID is too inexperienced
* INGENUE is also too inexperienced
* Horses coming from maidens as he does are 0-33
* ERROL FLYNN has an awful profile
* 3 runs coming from a maiden fails multiple trends
* ALANNAH is not fit and underraced
* PEAL PARK - BERRYNARBOR have awful profiles
* PERSISTENT doesnt look to have any positives
* ABULHARITH has been absent 55 days and thats a worry
* I looked at 3 year olds that came from 10f or shorter
* ABULHARITH does this and so did 6 other winners
* All 6 that did had slightly more experienced
* Those like him with 1-2-3-4 runs that year were 0-41
* None had the absence he does
* There is just a few flaws with his profile
* ABULHARITH is respected but he isnt perfect
* NOORDHOEK KID is also 3 coming from a 10f race
* There were 6 winners doing that as we know
* They all had 7 + runs and he has had just 5
* They all had 5 + runs that year and he has just 2
* Again NOORDHOEK KID is just a bit vulnerable
* SOUL SINGER has a chance but is a bit unsafe
* As a 3yo filly with 7 runs She matches just one winner
* None came from 3yo sellers though
* If she pops up I wouldnt be shocked
* There are unsafe elements to her chance though
* SPECIAL CHAPTER is a 4yo filly as were 7 winners
* Those with under 13 runs had a 1-31 record
* SPECIAL CHAPTER only has 7 runs
* She is cheap and doesnt feel like the best horse
* I dont see her as the likely winner
* BOFFIN has ran just 5 times
* Only 4 winners had under 7 career starts (4-111)
* None came from 11f or shorter
* None came from Claimers as he does (0-20)
* CLOVIS looks impossible to judge
* He comes here after two poor Chase runs
* I wouldnt know how to rate his chance accurately
* Personally I dont fancy him
* I dont think Chasing is the best preparation
* LOCATION has been hurdling
* Again thats a hard profile to read
* I respect her but didnt see enough I liked
* BOFFIN is unsafe but not out of it
* ROSE OF COMA has a fascinating profile
* 3 year old fillies that had won before are good
* Those that came from 12f races had a 3-7 record
* ROSE OF COMA passes that
* None were as exposed as her which is an issue
* Overall this horse should be kept on side but one worry
* Not sure she stays this far
* Her sire didnt stay and hasnt bred a winner past 10f
* I see here as a doubtful stayer

SELECTION

SOUL SINGER

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