No Account Bet

Plumpton has been Abandoned today so we have
to concentrate on Ayr in particular with a quick
look at both Kempton and Catterick. It would be
better had Plumpton survived so we are a bit short.


In terms of a Headline Bet today it was difficult. I
do not see an account bet. Many of my conclusions
today have savers and that's a sign of how unclear
some of the races are today. Think its an interesting
message in places that will suit race by race punters
rather than the one bet a day members. I will go with
TEENAGE IDOL in the 12.50 at Ayr as my choice of the
best option from the message but I will wait before
having a stronger bet.

Ayr 12.50

TEENAGE IDOL 11/4


On the Negatives front I would only advise people
to lay horses at very short prices so I am not going
to suggest you lay these horses but two horses today
interested me. This is because they are trying to do
something No Horse has done in the last 17 years
and do it within half an hour of each other so that
should be interesting. In the 12.40pm at Catterick
Phoneix Enforcer is trying to become the first 3yo
filly to win any all aged handicap in recent memory
as none like her have done so. Half an hour later in
the 1.10pm Sydney Sling attempts to be the only 4
year old to win any kind of handicap chase over 3m
or more. Just 2 interesting challenges to overcome.

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G


There was no message yesterday so this is the first one
since Monday and weather permitting we look forward
to an interesting week of Racing and hopefully some
stronger bets. Going to leave KEMPTON alone tonight
apart from the 8.50pm race. It's not the easiest of cards
and I dont see much there so staying with the National
Hunt cards apart from one quick preview in the 8.50 at
the end of the message. Starting with the National Hunt.



N A T I O N A L H U N T



CATTERICK 12.10

Richmondshire Conditional Jockeys´
Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-110) 2m3f

7/2 Simple Jim, 5/1 Shut The Bar, 11/2 Baileys Benchmark,
8/1 Ballabrook, I´m Your Man, Itstooearly, 10/1 Sonny Sam
11/1 Hawksbury Heights, Waltham Abbey, 18/1 Broadway Star
20/1 Cripsey Brook, 20/1 Mini Minster, 25/1 Ardesia.

Looked at all similar races. I dont see any of the outsiders being interesting. I had negatives for I'M YOUR MAN as older exposed horses from chases won nothing . I want to oppose ITSTOOEARLY as no mare came from a 2 mile
race that wasnt a handicap - BALLABROOK came out as
quite weak from a seller - BROADWAY STAR didnt do as
well as he needed to last time. SHUT THE BAR was one I
wasnt sure about. He is not a positive. He is unsafe and it's really whether to make him a negative or not but I take a view that he has to be conisdered but he doesnt have the look of a selection and I see holes in his profile. I would look for an alternative to these horses. I think a few like SONNY SAM and BAILEYS BENCHMARK have solid chances as does SIMPLE JIM who has the best profile in the race but also issues on the ground. Finding a selection is not easy and I would have to guess. Have at least a bet or a saver on SIMPLE JIM and chance SONNY SAM

Seletion - SONNY SAM
Saver - Simple Jim


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AYR 12.20

Best Odds Guaranteed At Victor Chandler
Introductory Hurdle (CLASS 3) (4yo+) 2m

7/2 Bivouac, 5/1 Premier Sagas, 5/1 Turbo Island
13/2 Grandad Bill, 7/1 Carters Rest, 8/1 Tara Royal
10/1 Forestside, 11/1 Mole Control, Wind Shuffle
14/1 Intersky Charm.

This is an "Introductory Hurdle" for horses that have
not ran in more than one hurdle. Statistically I'm not
confident we can draw any safe angles as these are new
races and between 2002 and 2006 there were none of
these races and no similar races anyway. I think I may
have to oppose BIVOUAC as he comes from a selling
race and only a Novice Seller. This is not a "Novice"
hurdle by definition but I have looked at several types
of races and think thats the best approach

* November -December has seen 757 Two Mile hurdles
* 97 of these races were "Maiden hurdles"
* 619 were Novice Hurdles
* 41 were "Introductory" and "Classified" hurdles
* I looked in the 757 races for horses like Bivouac
* Horses that came Sellers that were non handicaps 1-113
* Those from Novice Sellers were 0-38
* BIVOUAC coming from a Novice Seller doesnt appeal

It may not be a safe way of reading selling form in all
non handicap races but I see that as a poor profile. I'd
prefer PREMIER SAGAS and much as he dissapointed
on his hurdling debut last time he did run in a Graded
Bumper last year and thats a far cry from selling form
of a horse like BIVOUAC. I also think that "Trumps"
a horse like GRANDAD BILL with one average hurdle
run. I put TURBO SPEED's profile through the 757
races and came up with a 1-100 record and thats not
impressive. He isnt for me as a 4yo down in trip and
hammered with no backclass or experience to draw on.
TARA ROYAL has a poor profile and isnt a horse I
could bet. CARTERS REST has a good profile but I'd
see him as wanting better ground. I started off with a
negative for BIVOUAC and looking at the alternatives
I think the best option is to forgive PREMIER SAGAS
a below par run last time. With Graded form give him
a chance to prove himself as he wasnt given a great
ride last time and he may well have needed the run.

SELECTION

PREMIER SAGAS

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CATTERICK 12.40

Skeeby Selling Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-95) 2m

5/2 Yawl Springs, 5/1 Mister Fizzbomb, 11/2 Phoenix Enforcer, 6/1 Emotive, 13/2 Troodos Jet, 15/2 Amir Pasha, 10/1 Qaasi, 16/1 Monfils Monfils, 20/1 Blue Savannah, 25/1 Authentic Act, 33/1 Hunting Magic.

This is a selling hurdle over 2 miles. The main reason it
is in the message is because PHOENIX ENFORCER has
been well backed. That interests me as she is a 3yo filly.
Since 1992 No Three Year Old Filly has won any handicap
hurdle before. Thats not just Selling Handicaps. It is Any
and Every Handicap Hurdle thats ever been run since 1992
over any distance in any class and any time of year and on
any track. So far just 22 have tried but all 22 lost and it is interesting that whilst several were fancied and started both favourite and second favourite only one even managed to place. Therefore I oppose PHOENIX ENFORCER who
lets face it must have stamina doubts from his sprint sire
and coming from a "Novice seller" I hated her profile. I
wouldnt scream negative though as the race is full of shaky
profiles and bad horses. Forced for a choice I would have
to go with a Saver on TROODOS JET but the main stake
on MISTER FIZZBOMB.

Selection - MISTER FIZZBOMB
Saver - Troodos Jet

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AYR 12.50

VictorChandler.com Novices´ Chase (CLASS 3) (4yo+) 2m

8/11 Bedlam Boy, 3/1 Teenage Idol, 7/1 Tartan Snow,
8/1 Primrose Time, 33/1 Prince Tam.

* This is a Novice Chase over 2m
* November -December have seen 370 similar races
* BEDLAM BOY has a good profile winning last time
* He beat PRIMROSE TIME by 5 lengths last time
* I would expect him to do that again
* After all he was 5/2 and Primrose Time 66/1 last time
* BEDLAM BOY has a pretty good profile
* He is a bit over exposed and I would like fewer runs
* I would like a younger horse but he has Graded form
* That helps give him a solid and decent profile
* TARTAN SNOW looks too exposed as a debutant
* TEENAGE IDOL does have the best profile
* Horses from Grade 2 Novice Hurdles score well
* When having 5-8 career runs they were 5-9
* I see it as a match between him and Bedlam Boy
* TEENAGE IDOL has the better profile

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CATTERICK 1.10

Book Now For 28th December Handicap Chase
(CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-110) 3m1f110y

2/1 Sydney Sling, 5/1 Polar Gale, 11/2 Fakima, Treehouse,
7/1 Sycho Fred, 9/1 Star Beat, 12/1 Kalmo Bay, 16/1 Hermano Cordobes, 18/1 Darina´s Boy, 25/1 Cross Compliance.

This is a Handicap Chase over an extended 3m 1f. Its a
matter of time before one wins but in the 1990's and the
2000's there has never been a 4 year old win a handicap
chase yet over 2m 7f or further. SYDNEY SLING tried
to become the first last time out and came second. I do
not think this is a harder race for him but the extra 1.5f
distance must hurt especially from a sire that has never
bred a winner over this far. Naturally I am keen to see
if there is a better bet in the race. POLAR GALE doesnt
fit the bill. Exposed 9 year old absent a long time and a
horse stepping up from 2m 4f. If you look at all exposed
horses in the 446 similar races when they come from 20f
or less they won just 10 races. None defied an absence of
over a month and he has been absent 170 days and none
of the 446 winners had his profile. CROSS COMPLIANCE
doesnt appeal and I cant find a winner like him. I dont see
HERMANO CORDOBES as a negative but would have liked
to have seen a much better first run this year and as he has downgraded stables over the summer I wouldnt be interested. STAR BEAT is risky and has better hurdles form and he did not look like a winner about to happen last time. I dont see DARINA´S BOY as safe as a 13yo with heavy defeats in a couple of recent races.

* SYCHO FRED is fine statistically
* KALMO BAY is fine statistically
* I would make FAKIMA a positive
* I would have liked more backclass
* TREEHOUSE is fine statistically
* If he can repeat his last run he has a big chance

TREEHOUSE could have more improvement
and could improve past some moderate horses.
I would also saver on KALMO BAY

SELECTION - TREEHOUSE
SAVER - KALMO BAY

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AYR 1.55

Best Odds Guaranteed At Victor Chandler
Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-105) 3m110y

7/4 Mister Marker, 7/2 Delightfully, 8/1 Polobury
8/1 Treasured Memories, 10/1 Bring It On Home,
10/1 Fane Oscar, Mage D´estruval, Neidpath Castle
20/1 Miss Tarantella, 66/1 Shambery.

* This is a 3m Handicap Hurdle for 0-105 rated horses
* There has been about 421 similar races run
* DELIGHTFULLY is a Mare coming from 17f
* Mares coming from 19f or less struggled
* Only 3 won and none were like her
* No 5 year old mares did it
* Mares with 7 + career runs doing it were 0-45
* DELIGHTFULLY is 5 and has had 14 runs
* I cant find a winner like her in 421 races
* TREASURED MEMORIES also has a shaky profile
* She is a seasonal debutant mare
* No mare as old as her won first time out
* She also comes from Chases and no mare did that either
* I see her as vulnerable as well
* SHAMBERY is out as a mare from a maiden hurdle
* BRING IT ON HOME could be vulnerable
* I looked at horses like him
* 5 year olds with 1-2 runs this year from 2m 4f races
* The winners like that all had much better backclass
* Those without runs in a Class 2 or better race struggled
* They had a 1-40 record in the 421 races
* BRING IT ON HOME doesnt look safe statistically
* He also has a jockey who hasnt ridden a winner before
* MAGE D´ESTRUVAL looks unsafe as well
* No 9yo like him won a similar races
* Not beaten so far on his debut this year from a chase
* POLOBURY is also weak as a mare from a Chase
* FANE OSCAR doesnt look easy to assess from Ireland
* I dont see anything noteworthy in his profile
* NEIDPATH CASTLE comes from a handicap chase
* I looked at all horses doing that with 1-2 runs this year
* Those exposed like NEIDPATH CASTLE were 0-54
* Those aged 10 + like NEIDPATH CASTLE were 0-27
* NEIDPATH CASTLE isnt like any of the 421 winners
* MISS TARANTELLA doesnt appeal much
* I think MISTER MARKER has to be the one
* Good profile without being exceptional
* I think his chance increases through poor opposition
* MISTER MARKER looks best

SELECTION

MISTER MARKER


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AYR 2.25

Dunure Inn Novices´ Handicap Hurdle
(CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-105) 2m4f

7/2 Go On Be A Lady, Impact Zone, 11/2 Gavroche Gaugain,
7/1 Olifan D´oudairies, 7/1 Time Out, 10/1 Bracken Lad,
10/1 Corporation, 14/1 Melbourne Lad, 20/1 Bollin Fiona,
20/1 The Hurler, 33/1 Contendo, 33/1 Thebillymagner.

* This is a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m 4f
* We have had 239 similar races at this time of year
* GO ON BE A LADY had a shaky profile
* She is a Mare with just one run this season coming from 17f
* I looked at all mares that did that and found a 2-55 record
* Those like her with under 9 runs were 0-40
* Both Mares that won had better backclass as well
* I see GO ON BE A LADY as having a bit to prove
* CORPORATION is 5 and comes from a Novice Hurdle
* I did find winners like her that won but there are worries
* None for example did so with more than 11st 6lbs
* She has Topweight and doesnt have a strong profile
* TIME OUT also comes from a Novice Hurdle
* She has been absent 781 days and thats a worry
* None of the 239 winners like him were off that long
* Again I see him as unproven and with something to prove
* Mares like BOLLIN FIONA from Novice hurdles struggled
* With 1 run this year in the last 7 weeks they were 0-46
* CONTENDO -MELBOURNE LAD have poor profiles
* THEBILLYMAGNER is not easy to fancy either
* THE HURLER brings too many problems and is rejected
* BRACKEN LAD has a chance
* I would have prefered to see more form last time
* He was beaten a bit too far

SHORTLIST

* OLIFAN D´OUDAIRIES is hard to read from Ireland
* I shortlist him mainly due to negatives elsewhere
* I cant match him exactly to a past winner
* Equally he couldnt be a negative so I am neutral here
* GAVROCHE GAUGAIN has a complicated profile
* I make him a "cautious positive"
* Every chance he didnt stay 3m 1f last time when favourite
* He was going well until 3 out and found nothing
* It may be had nothing to give and limited ability
* He was well backed though and if it may have been stamina
* Back in trip he looks an interesting runner
* That said he isnt certain to stay even this shorter trip
* He is also a bit weak in the market
* IMPACT ZONE looks the safest option
* IMPACT ZONE has a serious chance
* I have found winners like him in 239 races
* Not hard to see him well handicapped off 84
* Unraced since last year he has been running in points
* He has won 5 of his last 7 point to points
* Impossible to know how that will affect his chance
* It does suggest he may be better than an 84 rated horses
* IMPACT ZONE may be better on a faster surface
* He is weighted to win this race though

SELECTION -IMPACT ZONE
SAVER - GAVROCHE GAUGAIN
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KEMPTON 8.50

Kia Soul Handicap (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85) 6f

4/1 Ivory Silk, 5/1 Fathsta, 6/1 Cecily, 7/1 Brierty, 7/1 Pearly Wey, 8/1 Dvinsky, 10/1 Daddy´s Gift, 12/1 Princess Valerina, 12/1 Thunderous Mood, Harlech Castle, 25/1 Beat The Bell, 25/1 Little Pete.

This is a 6f handicap for 0-85 rated horses. There's been
205 similar races at this time of year. There are not that
many great negatives but just enough to draw me into the
race. CECILY is a 3yo filly coming from a 5f race and I
dont like that profile. There were 69 that tried and just 1
managed to win. DADDY´S GIFT doesnt appeal as a 3yo
filly who has to drop from 8f to 6f and none like her did
that. THUNDEROUS MOOD comes out very badly as a
3yo with an absence. HARLECH CASTLE doesnt look a
horse about to defy a poor draw. DVINSKY is 8 and has
been absent 28 days and I would have liked a more recent
race for an 8yo especially as all his 13 wins had a shorter
break from his previous race. IVORY SILK doesnt appeal
as an exposed filly coming from a 5f race. The record of
these types were 2-73 and both winners had backclass in
Group and listed class and she doesnt. PEARLY WEY is
not for me exposed and absent 60 days. I dont see any
more obvious negatives but I'd oppose the above horses.
I think the best option is FATHSTA

* This is a 0-85 handicap in Class 4
* FATHSTA has just come from a 0-95 in Class 2
* He ran well there in 4th place
* It was a good run as it was his first run since August
* I didnt fancy him before that on his previous start
* He was entitled to have needed the run that day
* I think he should be effective down in trip
* FATHSTA would be my choice.

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