No Account Bet

1 Selection

Bangor 7.15

REINDEER DIPPIN

Win Bet around 7/4 +


One selection today and thats tonight over hurdles.
Strategically I have planned to throw in a shorter
message today allowing time for a blockbuster on
Saturday and it's shaping up that way. Statistically
I think I had two strong options today. My angles
suggest to me that I would be a Mug if I did not try
and get something out of REINDEER DIPPIN who is
2/1 this morning as the favourite in the race has to
do something that no horse as old as him has done
in the last 16 years in over 6000 races. Small field
Novice Hurdle. REINDEER DIPPIN didnt win a hot
race last time out but he did at least win and with
the statistic against the favourite I am making him
todays only selection. My other option today was at
Sandown where MILITARIST ought to win the 3.10
as the only horse remotely like past winners of the
race. I can predict less about this race though and
I didnt really want two short priced selections today
so I will stay with my only selection. The only brief
tomorrow will be to find a strong bet at good odds.

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G


One selection yesterday. That was an each way double
and it returned a small profit. A £10 each way double
returns £22.40. Could have been a lot better but I felt
it was the right bet and to be fair it did not ever look
risky. LA CAPRIOSA got out and just about made all
the running and started the bet really well. In the 2nd
leg SNOW DANCER was always prominant and more
than played his part in a 3 runner dominated finish.
At his highest point he reached 1.2 in running and
had he had the far rail he might have just had that
extra advantage and won but its hard to say. At least
he looked far more like winning than even being
out of the frame. It would have been a nice payout
had he won but we didnt lose anything and in what
was hardly a vintage E Mail it wasnt a bad effort.


Huge looking day on Saturday. Keen to give myself
as much time as possible to deal with that so I am
throwing a "shortie" in today. There isnt much I'd
want to cover today anyway. I have had a few words
about Wolverhampton which has a couple of races
of interest and then just 3 Sandown Previews. After
that There is 1 National Hunt race I like at Bangor
tonight and I cover that. You can get the odd days on
the Flat at this time of year where it isnt as inspiring
as you'd like and the choice isnt there and I think
yesterday and today are such days. I never know how
things will turn out when I start typing so stay with
the Top of the Message as the best guide.




W O L V E R H A M P T O N



There isnt much I can say about the 7f Maidens. You
know the drill. You know the unraced and lightly
raced horses are hard to nail down. You know the
betting can help and that there are each way double
options but I dont see any great angles in either race
and whatever you bet in these races I dont see any
good arguments against any of the fancied types



WOLVERHAMPTON 3.00


HOTEL & CONFERENCING AT WOLVERHAMPTON
SELLING STAKES (CLASS 6) (3yo) 7f32y

9/2 Invincible Miss, 5/1 Charlietoo, 5/1 Chocolicious,
11/2 Swiss Art, 6/1 Ridgeway Silver, 6/1 River Rye,
16/1 Captain Cavendish, 16/1 Weet In Nerja, 20/1
Abhainn, 20/1 Peanut Girl, Flamboyant Red, 33/1 Nun

* This is a 3yo seller over 7 furlongs
* Wolverhampton have 6 renewals of this race
* There are hardly any similar races elsewhere

We only have the 6 renewals as a guide but they
do throw up some interesting trends. We know
Fillies are best having won 5 of the 6 races and
the only one they didnt win went to a male horse
long odds on. You are better off with a Filly in a
race like this. Every past winner came from an
All Weather track. We know 5 of the 6 winners
had at least 7 runs. We know they had at least 2
runs this season. It's very interesting 4 of the 6
winners came here after a long absence. We know
every past winner failed to finish placed last time
out and they were all beaten at least 4 + lengths
last time out. We also know you are better off with
a past winner.

Bearing all this in Mind I oppose the Male horses
so SWISS ART is out having won his last two races.
ABHAINN is out as a male as is CHARLIETOO who
looks inexperienced with just one run. I am also
against the male CAPTAIN CAVENDISH with just
1 run this year. FLAMBOYANT RED is out as male
from a 5f race. WEET IN NERJA is the final male I
am rejecting. Looking at the fillies bearing in mind
none came from Turf races and None finished in the
placings last time I feel RIVER RYE looks the wrong
type. So to does PEANUT GIRL who might be a little
inexperienced anyway. CHOCOLICIOUS has to be
respected but he won last time out and comes from
turf and no past winners did that. NUN TODAY has
a winning profile at 20/1 or more and I wouldnt be
shocked if she popped in but the draw puts me off
a bit as does the fact shes having her first run for
a new stable that has gone over a year without a
winner. I think the best two runners might just be
INVINCIBLE MISS and RIDGEWAY SILVER. There
is a chance INVINCIBLE MISS could be a little bit
underraced with 4 runs and she is still a maiden
and from a stable thats hard to read. She may well
be best used as a saver if the market speaks kindly
but when looking at what sorts of horses have won
this race before the most interesting runner for
me was RIDGEWAY SILVER from Stall one.


I didnt really fancy the 3.35 handicap over 7f. All
I can say here is that from 26 similar races here
at Wolves at this time of year seasonal debutants
were 0-44 and horses absent 7 weeks or more just
1-63 and I would have opposed the absentee types
Wing Play - To Be Or Not To Be - Ghost Dancer
Soul Murmar and Call For Liberty. Didnt see any
decent angles to break it down any further



In the 4.10pm handicap I would have to go with
WOTASHIRTFULL. If the name rings a bell he
was the horse I selected to win the 0-95 handicap
at Epsom two days ago. Having come second in
that 0-95 with a very recent run I would fancy
him to win this 0-82 handicap. He hasnt ran at
this track before so there is a doubt there but
surely he has the form to win this race and as
he has a recent run I'd have to go with him. If
he doesnt like the place there are several who
will run a race and be happy to take advantage
but I felt WOTASHIRTFULL had a class and a
fitness edge over these and he'd be my choice.


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S A N D O W N



Pretty difficult card at Sandown today. Not really a
card that has great angles on it. I didnt want to go
down the road of multiple previews leading too only
Ambiguous selections. I am only really interested
in the Sandown races that show me clear evidence
that a horse is the right tyoe of race and that his or
her type have won similar races. We dont really get
that in the Esher Cup at 1.25pm. I cant find a horse
like Thief of Time who dropped in trip or that was
so inexperienced. Equally I cant find a horse from
a 2yo maiden over a Mile like Racketeer. Equally I
could go through every runner and be left with at
least one question mark against every runner and
with so many lightly raced horses from powerful
stables I didnt see any mileage in a long preview.
The Classic Trial is no different at 2pm a race that
has been corruped by small fields over the years.

I have previewed the 2.35 Handicap and the Three
year old conditions race at 3.10pm. No point at all
in doing the Maiden Fillies race at 4.45pm



SANDOWN 2.35

BET365 BEST ODDS GUARANTEED ON EVERY RACE
HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (3yo,0-100) 5f6y

5/2 Brenin Taran, 4/1 Affluent, 6/1 Gower Valentine,
15/2 Master Of Disguise, 10/1 Cut The Cackle, 12/1
Bobs Dreamflight, 12/1 Noble Storm, 14/1 Evelyn May,
14/1 Glamorous Spirit, 20/1 Pocket's Pick, 25/1 Able Master.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 5f for 0-97 horses
* This race has only been run once since 2003
* I have looked at the 22 similar races at this time of year
* None had the absence that POCKET´S PICK has
* GLAMOROUS SPIRIT didnt appeal
* I couldnt find a similar winner to her
* I dont see her winning a 0-97 handicap
* Not having recently lost in a claimer
* BOBS DREAMFLIGHT makes no appeal
* Not with 1 run this year and a 105 day break
* April has seen 366 handicaps in Class 4 and over
* Thats 366 handicaps at any trip
* Horses with 1 run this year and 7 weeks absence were 0-59
* BOBS DREAMFLIGHT fails that and is out
* GOWER VALENTINE comes from a 7f race
* No similar race went to a horse doing that
* None of the winners came from a Group race
* ABLE MASTER fails that and has a big weight
* Horses with high weights scored very badly at this track
* I doubt he will be able to give the weight away
* CUT THE CACKLE is a filly first time out
* Fillies doing this were 0-15 in this race
* None managed it in any other race with under 4 runs
* NOBLE STORM comes from a 6f conditions race
* No past winner in this race did that
* I found one horse that did it elsewhere
* AFFLUENT is a filly thats had just 2 runs
* In all similar races I cant find a filly with under 4 runs
* MASTER OF DISGUISE comes from a 5f 2yo maiden
* No horse did that with just 3 runs
* Only 1 managed it with under 5 runs (1-23)
* None won a 2yo maiden last time as he did
* EVELYN MAY - BRENIN TARAN came out best
* I found similar winners to these

SELECTION

Win Bet BRENIN TARAN 5/2
Saver Ber EVELYN MAY 16/1

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SANDOWN 3.10

CASINO AT BET365.COM CONDITIONS STAKES
(CLASS 3) (3yo) 1m14y

2/1 Militarist, 9/4 Parthenon, 11/4 Albaher,
7/1 Sonning Gate, 16/1 Charging Indian.

This is a small field conditions race and it has a long
history. That history suggests you really want a horse
with One race. If that happens again then the winner
will be MILITARIST or ALBAHER. It's interesting that
12 of the last 13 renewals that had once raced horses
in were won by horses that had just the one race. That
seems to be the ideal profile. SONNING GATE has had
3 runs as has PARTENON. Both are seasonal debutants
and no past winner of this race had 3 or more runs as
juveniles. They could be exposed and no past winner
of this came via Nurseries as PARTENON does. I feel
I should oppose both. No horse that ran this year had
come from a 3yo handicap or was unplaced last time
out so CHARGING INDIAN is rejected failing both
those angles. The choice of selection seems straight
forward really. ALBAHER comes from a 6f race and
no past winner of this race did that. I have to go with
John Gosden and MILITARIST. Gosden has a very
smart record in this race and his 5 runners had a
W W 3 2 2 record. MILITARIST has just won in the
Wood Ditton the same race the 2000 winner came
from. The 1992 1996 1997 1998 2000 2003 2006
winners all had 1 career run and run that year. It
all points to MILITARIST in my view.

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SANDOWN 4.20

BET365.COM HANDICAP (CLASS 3)
(3yo,0-90) 1m2f7y

3/1 Antinori, 5/1 Jedi, 11/2 Classic Vintage, 6/1 Rafaan,
7/1 Aqwaal, 12/1 Howard, 12/1 Polly's Mark, 14/1 Doctor
Crane, 14/1 Perfect Shot, Northern Tour, 33/1 Khan Tengri.

SELECTION - AQWAAL


This is a 0-90 Handicap over 10 furlongs. Sandown
have had just 5 renewals so I will take the 63 races
in April like this. If you look at Fillies in the 63
races they won only 4 and those with 4 or more runs
had a 0-72 record so POLLY´S MARK is out and I do
not want a filly beaten in a 3yo maiden anyway. In
63 races horses that came from 2yo conditions races
had a 0-45 record and that puts me off these types so
DOCTOR CRANE and CLASSIC VINTAGE are out.
KHAN TENGRI doesnt look good well beaten in an
8f maiden. NORTHERN TOUR looks outclassed in a
a race like this. Horses like RAFAAN that won 3yo
maidens last time out over 10f had a 1-20 record
and I wasnt impressed. 20 horses came here like
him having won a maiden and only 1 managed to
win and none did it in this race. ANTINORI looks
opposable. I looked at all horses that came from
3yo handicaps. Those like him from 8f or less had
a 0-34 record and I suspect he will get beaten. Its
hard to see PERFECT SHOT winning having run
over this trip as a juvenile and I dont see where
the improvement can come from.

SHORTLIST

I have found winners of similar winners like HOWARD
so he wants watching in the Market. AQWAAL is a big
runner. Richard Hills isnt riding I presume as he cant
do 8st 4lbs but I have found winners like him. JEDI has
a good chance as well and I feel one of these 3 were best.


SELECTION - AQWAAL


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BANGOR 7.15


WEATHERBYS BETTRENDS.CO.UK
NOVICES' HURDLE (CLASS 4) (4yo+) 2m1f

6/4 Sea Storm, 9/4 Reindeer Dippin, 5/1 Foresight,
11/2 Palmerin, 12/1 Allanard, 50/1 Mays

SELECTION - REINDEER DIPPIN

This is a Novice Hurdle over 17 furlongs. April has
had 87 similar races at this time of year. There may
be a decent negative in SEA STORM. He's an 11 year
old and older horses rarely win. April has seen 350
Novice Hurdles between 2m to 2m 4f. In 350 races
horses aged 9 or more had a 1-113 record and none
of them were aged as old as SEA STORM. In fact you
can look at the following record for further evidence.

* Since 1993 there has been 6426 Novice Hurdles
* Thats 6426 races at Any time of year
* Thats 6426 Novice Hurdles in any class
* Thats 6426 races all between 2m and 3m

This simply put is every Novice hurdles thats ever
been run in the last 16 years at 3 miles or under.
In these 6426 races there has never been a horse
like SEA STORM win aged 11. If you look in the
6426 races Horses aged 11 or more had a 0-191
record. SEA STORM is trying to become the first
11 year old to win any Novice hurdle short of 3
miles in the last 16 year. I have to oppose him.

There are four sensible alternatives. PALMERIN may
not stay from a sprint sire who has never had a winner
at this code before and I dont feel inclined to risk him
as a very lightly raced 4 year old. I feel just the same
about FORESIGHT as well. ALLANARD has shown
nothing in just two starts. Surely the bet here has to
be the 7yo REINDEER DIPPIN who is coming here
having won a novice hurdle last time out.

SELECTION - REINDEER DIPPIN

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