No Account Bet

3 Selections

Yarmouth 2.50 - CHOISHARP 3/1 Win Bet

Folkestone 7.40 - WINTERBROOK KING 7/4 Win Bet

Bath 6.25 - XAARA STAR 8/1 + Each Way


Three Selections today. Very heavy rain coming later in the
South which could affect all three of these horses later. In my opinion Choisharp and Winterbrook King are account bets in all but name. I think with Choisharp there is an issue about whether the 3/1 price will hold in a race where I cant really hand on heart profess to know everything I need to about all the runners so I am just holding back there but I do think he is the only horse in the race I could entertain winning and think he will. WINTERBROOK KING won be a great price and to make him a stronger bet would mean an update and weather check just before the race not neccesarily for him as he will win in my view on any ground but rain can and will affect the
oppostion and his price. Xaara Star is a riskier and slightly more speculative selection.


So many more horses today could have been selections. Its a day of very strong profiles. Spoilt for choice and forced to be making that choice against a ticking clock with six flat cards on the day so I will need luck to be sure I have the strongest at the top of the message. I like all three though and think I should make a profit with them.


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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G

I am not completely sure we got a fair run for our money
yesterday. Veiled Applause drifted ominously in the betting and was never put in the race before finishing a close 6th without being subjeceted to a hard ride in any way. Looked suspiciously like a quiet ride.

Six Flat meetings today. Obviously far too many to handle
and cope with. I've decided to seperate the Afternoon cards
from the evening. Therefore a very quick look at Brighton
which doesnt look good. Then I have done two at Haydock.
Then its a Yarmouth preview with one main race there. It
then looks at some of the Evening racing. Some Sandown
and Bath races and one at Folkestone. Busy day as you may
expect with six heavy meetings.




B R I G H T O N

Going to leave Brighton Alone today apart from a few words.
Whatever I could say is vulnerable to the forecast showers in the afternoon which are potentially ground changing today.

The Maiden doesnt interest me or offer me anything. In the
Fillies Handicap I had Goodbye Cash - Ocean Countess Lady
Florence and Sparkling Suzie as negatives but I am not sure if that is a safe list now the race has lost the Chris Wall horse and is not as competetive. There are Complicated issues in this race though. On Paper I prefer MISS BOOTYLISHES and IVORY SILK. However MISS BOOTYLISHES may well bounce today having just won on soft ground 2 weeks ago on her first run since April. She could easily flop after that and is impossible to judge. I wonder if IVORY LACE as Topweight down in class will outclass them all but as an 8 year old with a months absence I would be worried about her. I think one of them should win but both have problems I cant rate and 7 runners doesnt make me want to bet. If she doesnt bounce then MISS BOOTYLISHES could be the one and shades it.

FLEETING STAR spoils the next race. I wouldnt want to be
with any other horse in the race. The rest of the card is just Big Field Brighton Handicaps and they are best avoided.


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H A Y D O C K

Soft. Good to Soft in Places. Good to Firm for 6f. Thats the description of todays going so you can see how ridiculous it gets trying to know what to expect from the ground these days.


The 2.10pm is a Maiden. Has Joint favourites at the moment
with BRUNETTE and DIAMOND DUCHESS. This race will be about stamina for these 2 year olds on soft ground over a Mile. Thats a serious test for August. Statistically I just gave
it to DIAMOND DUCHESS by a whisker. On Sire stats both
on distance and the ground its inconclusive but you can argue the only one of this pair that is from a Sire thats bred a winner on soft ground is DIAMOND DUCHESS and her sire is the only one who proved he stayed and acted on the ground. That reads messy. What it means is DIAMOND DUCHESS is marginally safer than BRUNETTE. I wouldnt want LAND OF PLENTY as an unraced filly over a Mile on soft ground. She may win but she isnt for me and I remember her sire hated soft ground. Guessers race though and mine is DOMINANT DUCHESS.


HAYDOCK 3.40

HATTONS SOLICITORS HANDICAP
(CLASS 3)(3yo 0-95) 1m30y

11/4 Deadly Secret, 3/1 Mull Of Killough, 4/1 Cyflymder,
4/1 Tiger Reigns, 8/1 Happy Anniversary, 10/1 Toledo Gold,
14/1 Mishrif.

* This is a 3yo handicap over a Mile
* August has seen 94 similar races
* I dont want to bet CYFLYMDER from 7f
* Males from 3yo handicaps over 7f were 3-88
* Thats poor and none like him won last time (0-12)
* None had a months absence either (0-22)
* I felt he was unsafe
* MISHRIF has a weak profile with Group class form
* Horses already tested in Group class struggled
* TOLDEO GOLD looked opposeable from 6f
* I felt a couple were "Unimpressive" statistically
* MULL OF KILLOUGH is unimpressive but not a negative
* DEADLY SECRET is reasonable statistically
* I wasnt too unhappy with HAPPY ANNIVERSARY
* I felt any of these three had chances but were not strong
* The best profile belonged to TIGER REIGNS
* No each way options though and 3 possible dangers
* Small stakes only but TIGER REIGNS came out best

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HAYDOCK 4.10

FRONTLINE BATHROOMS HANDICAP
(CLASS 4)(3yo 0-80) 1m3f200y

3/1 Advisor, 7/2 Choral Festival, 5/1 Honimiere, 13/2 Citizenship, 8/1 Going For Gold, 10/1 Royal Trooper, 12/1 Whooshka, 14/1 Embsay Crag, 16/1 Excelsior Academy, 20/1 Sweet Hollow.

This is a 3yo handicap over just short of 12 furlongs. There are 98 similar races at this time of year. HONIMIERE is on a roll with 3 wins in his last 4 runs but interesting the one he didnt win came on the softest ground he has faced and the ground looks to be her biggest problem assuming that it is on the soft side which it probbaly should be. Statistically she is ok but Fillies like her that came from 10f handicaps won a few but none won last time as she does and none had the weight she does. I wouldnt be afraid to oppose her. I dont like CHORAL FESTIVAL. None of the 98 winners came from a Maiden with just 1 run that season as she does. In 98 races Fillies from maidens were only 1-37 and that sole winner had 3 runs that year. She's opposable. WHOOSHKA is a filly with two runs. I couldnt find a Female winner with just
2 runs. That doesnt make her a negative but you would prefer one to have won. I think the strongest runners in this race had to be GOING FOR GOLD and ADVISOR. Both will relish the conditions. Both have similar profiles to several winners in all similar races and I felt they looked superior to the rest. I think the slight drop in trip has to suit ADVISOR. I see him crusing through on the bridle to take it up and then it will be down to what he finds and what challenges him. There is strength in
depth in the race and horses that could throw down a serious challenge but If I had to call this I would want to have a saver on GOING FOR GOLD and the main bet on ADVISOR.


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Y A R M O U T H


YARMOUTH 2.20

It remains to be seen how good the unraced Michael Stoute
horse SERHAAL is in the opening maiden but surely the
80 rated EXCELLENT GUEST offers solid resistance. If
you take all 6f maidens in August and look at horses with
the same profile as EXCELLENT GUEST with 3 runs and
coming from 7f maidens when placed 2nd 3rd or 4th last
time out you find a record of 5 winners from 8 runners. I
would much rather bet EXCELLENT GUEST. If you want
the record of unraced Stoute colts in 6f August maidens it's only 1-20 and whilst stats like that are next to meaningless I would have to go with EXCELLENT GUEST here.


YARMOUTH 2.50

BET365 BEST ODDS GUARANTEED ON EVERY RACE
MAIDEN HANDICAP(CLASS 6)(3yo+ 0-65) 6f3y

3/1 Choisharp, 5/1 Migliori, 11/2 Silca Meydan, 7/1 Clerical, 8/1 Always The Sun, 12/1 Dance Club, 14/1 Abu Derby 14/1 Safaseef, 25/1 Sonhador, 25/1 Wicklewood 33/1 Sorrel Point, Straboe.


* This is a Maiden Handicap over 6f
* August has seen 149 low grade 6f handicaps
* Horses that come from Maidens had a poor 1-80 record
* MIGLIORI fails that and has only had 3 runs
* In 149 races horses with 3 runs or less were just 1-36
* MIGLIORI looks opposable
* STRABOE has to go from the worst draw and poor form
* Horses beaten 10 + lengths last time had appaling records
* In 149 races they had a 10-539 record
* SORREL POINT fails that and has shown nothing
* ABU DERBY Fails that and comes from a maiden
* Horses aged 3 beaten 10 + lengths last time were 1-162
* ABU DERBY fails that and also comes from a maiden (1-80)
* Horses like ABU DERBY beaten 10 lengths over 5f were 0-74
* Horses aged 3 beaten 10 + lengths last time were 1-162
* DANCE CLUB fails that and looks opposable
* Horses beaten 10 lengths with under 3 runs that year were 0-96
* DANCE CLUB fails that as well
* As a filly with 1 run this year she looks weak
* Horses from 5f races with 10+ lengths defeat were 0-74
* None of the 149 winners were seasonal debutants
* SAFASEEF fails that and she is also a filly first time out
* Horses aged 3 coming from 5f races were 3-94
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were 0-36
* SONHADOR fails that and looks exposed
* CLERICAL is trained by Robert Powell
* He won this race in 2005 and 2008
* CLERICAL is a 3yo that does have issues
* Horses aged 3 with under 3 runs that year were 1-49
* Horses aged 3 with 1 run that year like him were 1-16
* Horses aged 3 absent over a month were 0-76
* CLERICAL fails that with a 36 day break
* CLERICAL also comes from a 5f race
* Horses aged 3 doing that were 3-94 but all 3 had a recent run
* CLERICAL does look unsafe to me and I,d be worried
* You also have the possibility he may want Sand
* His best runs are on Sand and he is American Bred
* Many sand horses act at Yarmouth but its another issue
* Horses aged 3 absent over a month were 0-76
* SILCA MEYDAN fails that with a 155 day absence
* He also comes from a Maiden race
* He also comes from a 5f race as well
* I respect his stable but he has a poor profile
* WICKLEWOOD has a really solid profile
* He comes from a 6f handicap at Yarmouth
* AFTER THE SUN comes from the same race at Yarmouth
* AFTER THE SUN wasnt fancied at 66/1 that day
* He was last ridden along and looked well beaten
* He picked up though and finished really well into 4th
* WICKLEWOOD was back in 8th that day and better fancied
* AFTER THE SUN looks weaker statistically but did beat her
* Slight concern shes inexperienced and has few runs this year
* That said the 2005 winner of this race was very similar

SELECTION

* CHOISHARP looks to have an excellent profile
* I would have prefered a more recent run
* Placed in a 0-72 last time trumps most of these though
* His 3rd in a 0-65 handicap before that looks good
* Especially as it was over this C+D in a big field
* She ran into a smart horse last time out
* CHOISHARP looks the one to me


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Yarmouth (Continued)

Dont want to play in the Seller at 3.20 as hardly any of these races are run at this time of year so were blind statistically.

The Fillies Handicap (3.50) is not straight forward but I should be able to narrow it down. There has only been 20 Fillies races like this at a Mile for 3 year olds in August. Again a low sample size. ACT GREEN doesnt appeal badly drawn and from a 6f race. TAMARAH out with 1 run this year. VIVA LA VIDA has been absent too long. MISS SOPHISTICAT looks too exposed to be coming from a Maiden. BALLET DANCER ran badly last time and horses doing that are poor and I couldnt bet her. This looks between 4 runners but that feels a pretty obvious statement. I'd
see Surprise Party -Chadwell Spring - Bombina- Evening Sunset as likely to provide the winner. The issue may be whether the better form BOMBINA has is enough for her to concede weight to the lighter weights who have been mixing it in lower grade. I am tempted by BOMBINA each way. I am also tempted by a split stake bet. BOMBINA to place and SURPRISE PARTY to win the race. Should be hard to lose money that way.

The 4.20 looks a bit too competetive to me. You have a strong runner in SIGNORA LADY as she is a filly in form. If you look at all similar races and look at 4yo Fillies like her that have just won a race. When they are unexposed and have at least 3 runs that year as she does they have a 6-11 record. She wont be an easy horse to beat. The problem is the strength in depth against her. I wouldnt want CRYSTAL FEATHER or INCH LODGE but that doesnt help much. FORCED OPINION has to be avoided as well. There has been good money for him but Ive checked every low grade handicaps in August at 8f 9f and 10f and none of the
winners had a profile like him. There are a couple that could run well but you wont get a better profile than SIGNORA LADY and she would be my choice but plenty of runners dont help and shes only 2/1.

I dont really fancy the last at Yarmouth. I wouldnt be betting the topweight FISADARA anyway as in the 71 similar races at this time of year Fillies from maidens had a 0-35 record. The same statistic is against TUPPENNY PIECE. I thought ROYAL BET and ANY GIVEN MOMENT came out badly. I wouldnt want a horse as exposed as SCREAMING BRAVE after such a poor last run. VIN DE ROSE and PERSIAN TOMCAT look weak as well. The winner will probably be one of the other 5 runners. Maybe BROUGHTONS PARADIS each way is the best option as a filly in form with a recent run.

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E V E N I N G R A C I N G



SANDOWN

Tempted with WAVEBAND in the first race at Sandown in a
e/w double but thinking about the horrible weather forecast if there was rain there enough to change the ground she would be uncertain to handle it and many others here have fast ground profiles like Memory and Magic - Ruthie Babe and I wouldnt be sure Admirable Duchess would want it either.

GOLDEN DESTINY has a solid profile in the 6.15pm and
looks to be the one. I couldnt find a winner in 81 similar 5f handicaps at this time of year like LUCKY LEIGH a filly
with an absence. ESPECIALLY SPECIAL is a mystery as
She comes from a Grade 1 race when 66/1 last year. She is
a seasonal debutant and none of the 81 winners won first
time out. She has to be unsafe. The other runners are all
quite acceptable statistically so probably too many are in
with a chance considering just 7 go to post.

HIGH TWELVE spoils the maiden but should win at a very
short price and I have the 7.20 as too difficult. The 7.55pm looks wide open. Its an interesting race but 7 runners spoils it and the stats are too complicated. AMAZING BLUE SKY and AKABEND are weak statistically and opposable. I looked at 9f and 10f handicaps for 3 year olds. ALMUKTAHEN is confusing as he is from a maiden. The record of his type are fine at 9f but awful at 10f so I suspect thats a blip and unsafe. I would be neutral about him with a little doubt in my mind that he's the wrong type of maiden winner. The ground may also hurt him. Not a Negative but I dont see him as selection material either. SEHOY has a respectable profile. The rain and Ground will be issues. Both TOTTIE and SEQUILLO are shortlistable on fast ground but not on soft.

I think the markets right in the 8.25pm. WING PLAY is the
right favourite and BOMBER BROWN deserves respect. The
stats in similar races just lead me to prefer WING PLAY and if it rained and the ground changed I would fancy WING PLAY ahead of Bomber Brown even more.

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B A T H


BATH 5.55

I would have to go with POINT OF LIFE as his main market
rival (Blue Nymph) is a filly from a maiden and in 110 similar races fillies doing that were 1-46 and no filly beaten in a maiden won a similar race.

BATH 6.55

This is a selling race for 2 year olds. MISTER HUGHIE has a much stronger profile than True Red and I think he will beat her. I respect Aegean Destiny but she does have a long absence. An unraced filly like LADY AVON wouldnt be my first choice. I quite like the look of XAARA STAR. There was every chance she went off too fast at Yamouth last time having led for a long way before fading and
the drop to 5f should suit. I looked at all selling races in August like this. Fillies like XAARA STAR that came from sellers over 6f had a good record. Those that had at least 4 runs as she does and that ran within 2 weeks as she does and that were not beaten more than 6 lengths last time as she wasnt did even better. These types had a
5-9 record. XAARA STAR is similar to the 2006 winner of this race(Diminuto) who had a very similar profile and came from the same Yarmouth seller that XAARA STAR comes from. She may well be good each way value against the favourite. I see this between two in MISTER HUGHES and XAARA STAR. If 8 run XAARA STAR is an each way bet. If they dont she is a win bet.


BATH 8.35

3/1 Night Affair, 4/1 Diane's Choice, 4/1 Littlemisssunshine, 5/1 Drifting Gold, 5/1 Matterofact, 7/1 Chandika, 20/1 Wibbadune.

There has been 34 Fillies handicaps in August at 5 furlongs. None of the winners had under 5 career starts. None of them had under 3 runs that season. NIGHT AFFAIR fails both those trends and isnt for me. LITTLEMISSSUNSHINE doesnt appeal with just 1 run this year and an absence. CHANDIKA has just 3 runs and is another to fail one of those angles. WIBBADUNE didnt do much last time and doesnt appeal. I have to shortlist DRIFTING GOLD
much as she isnt that well treated but in the light of the runners she faces DRIFTING GOLD looks a serious player. I respect the lightweight DIANE´S CHOICE but none of the 34 came from a Claimer as she does and her form is in much lower grade than the likes of DRIFTING GOLD. I think DRIFTING GOLD is a really big price to win this but you have to consider She is a Clive Cox horse as is CHANDIKA and the big money is all on CHANDIKA so getting 20lbs weight you can perhaps see why you could be a bit vulnerable with DRITING GOLD when all the moneys on a
stablemate getting lumps of weight. I think the sensible choice has to be DRIFTING GOLD to win and a saver on CHANDIKA.


FOLKESTONE

Time prevents a huge preview here. The only horse and race
I have had a chance to look at is WINTERBROOK KING in
the Staying Handicap at 7.40. He is very strong statistically as a 3 year old coming into the race with a recent win. There were 17 horses running in all similar races with his profile and 8 of the 17 won and several more were second. With a profile like that WINTERBROOK KING looks the best option.

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