1 Bet Today

Split Stake Bet

Southwell 3.50

(6) FIRST BLADE 10/1 £30 Win

(1) SIMPLE RHYTHM 11/4 £20 Win


FIRST BLADE
12/1 Corals
11/1 VC - Paddy P -Spbet
10/1 Ladbrokes- Hills - Stan J- Blue Sq



SIMPLE RHYTHM

11/4 Bet365 -Tote -Boyles -BlueSq-PaddyP


First thing to say is Do not mix up horses with
similar names. The bet is FIRST BLADE and not
First Order. Ironically First Order is the only one
of the rest I am scared of so lets hope its not the
case of Sods Law but it is FIRST BLADE thats the
bet. He will probably be slowly away. He should be
running on very late. I think he is overpriced to
win this race but I have to save on a filly whose
rated better than these in SIMPLE RHYTHM
who is a more likely winner but a shorter price.


There will be a Message tomorrow. However it will
be shorter than normal and later than usual around
Midday. I have a Hospital Appointment first thing
tomorrow. It wont take long but it will delay me so
Its a message which must be shorter and later.

Fontwell leaves me Cold today. The only really big
statistical edge suggests BLACKTOFT will win the
Novice Hurdle at 3pm around 7/1 but its a bit more
complicated than it first looks and although I like
and have selected him I feel he is a Place Only bet.

I think my Kempton options stand up to scrutiny
and thats an interesting card but its riddled with so
many small fields and that will corrupt angles so I
wouldnt see the card as a place to have bigger bets.

I wont get every winner at Southwell from the six
races I have looked at but if I dont get at least two
and maybe three I will be dissapointed.

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T O D A Y S R A C I N G



There was no bet on Saturday. Whether having a bet free
Saturday is a sign of failure of strength I dont know but I am glad I didnt as I wouldn't have had a winner and it was not a vintage message yesterday. There are 3 meetings
today. I have run through both National Hunt cards and
said what I can where I can. Neither of the National Hunt
meetings offer great betting oppurtunities because of small
fields and I think Southwell may be a better card. I will start with the National hunt cards first.



K E M P T O N


Small Fields spoil Kempton today and that means
there is not much we can do with the card. I would
not oppose ALAZAN in the first race but he is not
going to help much being Odds On. I wouldnt want
to oppose BERGO either in the next race but exactly
the same applies with him. No great mileage in either.

The 3.25 is a Listed Class Novice Hurdle. Just 4 past
renewals and only 5 similar races at all tracks so we
are in the dark a bit. AUSTRALIA DAY is respected
but none of the winners came from a Maiden hurdle.
If you take the 5 races and take the best statistic for
a bet then it would have to be COOTEHILL. In the
5 races horses like him that had won 3 times before
over hurdles had a 4-5 record in these races. In the
absence of any other meaningful angles I would go
with COOTEHILL just because of thet angle.

In the handicap chase at 4pm I'd go with OUSTE but
more by process of elimination than anything else. I
liked him statistically. I didnt like YAWL SPRINGS
as I couldnt find a similar race won by a horse that
was beaten so far in a recent Novice Handicap. The
favourite PROFESSOR HIGGINS had no more than
a average profile. ELUVAPARTY makes no appeal
as a 9yo Novice Chaser. GREEN GAMBLE looks a
few runs short of fitness. KING BREX ran badly just
15 days ago and must come with doubts. Overall the
only profile I really liked was OUSTE.

The Hurdle race at 4.35 is the only race of its kind
at this time of year so we just have the 16 renewals
for guidance. They dont help much. Impossible to
rate NOBLE REQUEST who hasnt raced in almost
3 years. Personally I couldnt bet him with such an
absence. ALPH is a 12 year old and thats not great
first time out. KATIES TUITOR may find the fast
ground against him. I'd have to guess but that guess
would be between RED MOLONEY a seasonal debut
5 year old and TREATY FLYER and because of his
fitness I'm drawm more to TREATY FLYER.

The Novice Hurdle at 5.10pm is very interesting. I
would be firmly against ASTRAL BOY having run in
a Bumper this year when well beaten. I couldnt have
TORTA NEL CIELO. There look to be two runners.
There is not clear blue water statistically between the
2 runners but I would take a stronger view. I dont see
THE BIG ORSE as good as BALTHAZAR KING and
given the choice of profiles BALTHAZAR KING wins.


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F O N T W E L L


Tough start with a Novice Handicap Hurdle over 2m4f.
We have 68 similar races in October. Because the record
of 4 year old fillies is 0-27 in these races I would not be
with LITTLE FIRECRACKER especially with Topweight.
If you look at how all Fillies and Mares get on they dont
score that well. Almost all that won were seasonal debutants. Those that had a run this year had an unimpressive record something LITTLE FIRECRACKER also fails. Others to fail that include AVOINE - MY FAITHFUL ANNIE and ISINTSHELOVELY and QUAYSTONE LADY. If horses
come from Novice Handicap hurdles recently they must
have ran very well in them. WINNING SHOW has not so
he is rejected. COMMAND MARHSALL looks wrong and
the other outsiders Bukhara -Hawk Gold -Send For Tim do
look weak. I think there are 5 Good Profiles and I haven't
mentioned any of them so far. The winner may be one of
these - Albert Park -Diamanpeg - Quechua Des Obeaux -
Ghaill Force -Robin Des Bank. As a contest its too hard
to judge as many improvers as this so leaving it alone.


In the Novice Chase at 2.30pm it will come down to how fit
and ready DONT TELL THE WIFE is and how he jumps.
Personally I would see the risk of him not being 100% right as a strong possibility and given the choice I would rather be with CALUSA CALDERA who I felt had a lovely profile. I am assuming that as CALL ME SAM started 66/1 last time and had shown nothing before that there may have been an element of fluke in his win. I'd prefer CALUSA CALDERA.Sadly so to does the market.


The 3pm is a Novice Hurdle. October has seen 240 of these
Novice Hurdles. THERE´S NO PANIC is a 4yo from winning
a Bumper last year on his only start. There were 4 horses with that profile in 240 races and they were W 2 W PU so I would argue a 2-4 record makes her a positive. I dont have a problem with CONSULATE . On paper though the best chance has to belong to BLACKTOFT for the following reasons.

* There are 240 similar races in October between 17f-20f
* Horses aged 6 that Won a Novice Hurdle last time
* When having at least 1 run this season
* When having under 13 career starts
* Horses with this profile had a 14-21 record
* When running over 2m 4f or shorter that became 13-16
* Thats a strike rate of 81.25%
* Those like BLACKTOFT with 2 + runs were 8-8
* I cant ignore that so BLACKTOFT is the bet

Obvious concerns as he isnt a big horse and his last win did come in a slowly run race and because of that he is likely to drift in my view. I would still be happy to be with him as a selection but not sure I wouldnt make him an account bet with his size and headgear and because the main dangers are all fine statistically as well. It
may well be that THERE'S NO PANIC is smart being owned by
powerful connections who also sponsor a race later on the card.

SELECTION

If there is a bet in this race it may well be BLACKTOFT place only. You should get around evens and he only has to frame with some good stats behind him. For those who dont want to do that I couldnt go with anything in the race other than BLACKTOFT.

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S O U T H W E L L


SOUTHWELL 2.10

EBF Buy A Racing Post Yearling Bonus Candidate
Maiden Stakes (CLASS 5) (2yo) 7f

4/6 Demonstrative, 7/2 Primo De Vida, 6/1 Consult,
14/1 Tres Amigos, 20/1 Let Them Eat Cake,
20/1 The Ducking Stool, 33/1 Red Valerian Two,
100/1 Miss Isle Control, Wedding Dream.

Difficult to see past DEMONSTRATIVE who has handicap
form in a Maiden. He sets a reasonable standard. I didnt see much I could bet against him. I wouldnt want a horse from an Auction Maiden over 6f like PRIMO DE VIDA. Mark
Prescott is a trainer with a 1-66 record in October with all unraced horses in these maidens so CONSULT doesnt look
backable first time against a handicapper. I cant find a filly like LET THEM EAT CAKE beaten so far last time when
having a recent run. TRES AMIGOS has to approve. I see
DEMONSTRATIVE as the best option. He deserves to be
odds on. I would bet him at 4/5 or better.

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SOUTHWELL 2.40

Bramley Apple Bi-Centenary Celebration Handicap
(CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85) 1m6f

11/4 Hindu Kush, 3/1 Fin Vin De Leu, 7/2 Blue Nymph,
5/1 Dunaskin, 5/1 Feathered Crown, 14/1 Dart.

* This is a 15f Handicap for horses rated 0-82
* September -November have seen 259 similar races
* Horses that came from Maidens won 6 races
* FEATHERED CROWN does that with just 3 runs
* He comes from a 10f Maiden
* Horses from Maidens over 10f or shorter were 0-29
* Horses like him from maidens with 3 runs were 1-39
* No similar race was won by a similar horse
* FEATHERED CROWN is opposed
* BLUE NYMPH is a filly from a Maiden
* In 259 races Fillies from maidens were 0-37
* I would oppose her as well
* DART is a mare absent 132 days
* No mare like her defied anywhere near that absence
* She looks unsafe and opposable
* DUNASKIN is a 9 year old and few that age won
* He is in Good form over hurdles winning last time
* His recent Flat runs have been poor though
* He has yet to show he stays this far as well
* I think he is unsafe and want to look elsewhere
* I looked at 3 year old males like FIN VIN DE LEU
* When they had 13 + runs and lost by 10 + lengths last time
* These horses had a 2-35 record in 259 races
* Throw in a recent run and a run over 14f and that improves
* That becomes a 2-6 record
* FIN VIN DE LEU has a chance in this race
* He won his only race here and he does stay
* HINDU KUSH is very complicated to read
* He is also a complicated horse
* I wouldnt expect to find many similar winners
* He does look well handicapped though
* In light of other negatives he has a big chance
* He does have to handle the surface though
* There must be a serious doubt about that on his pedigree
* I dont see him giving 19lbs to FIN VIN DE LEU
* FIN VIN DE LEU would be my selection

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SOUTHWELL 3.15

Coral Backing Sue Ryder Care Handicap
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 1m

7/2 Penitent, 9/2 Sovereign Remedy, 13/2 More Time Tim
8/1 Collateral Damage, 10/1 Faithful Ruler, 10/1 Lowther
10/1 Moynahan, 10/1 Nightjar, 12/1 Vainglory, 16/1 Flipando
16/1 Lucky Dance, 16/1 Tactful, 33/1 Wise Dennis.

This is a Mile Handicap for 0-96 rated horses and we have
had 177 similar races at this time of year. I could not back TACTFUL as a filly with an absence. WISE DENNIS has a
weak profile as a 7 year old with an absence and also a heavy defeat last time. MORE TIME TIM has a lot to do with his 45 day absence and stepping up in distance. LOWTHER is a badly handicapped horse and up in trip. NIGHTJAR didnt do
enough last time and is badly drawn. LUCKY DANCE is not
sure to be fit enough at his age with 1 run since July. No 4yo like MOYNAHAM won a similar race beaten so far last time and he looks weak to me. Exposed horses beaten 10 or more lengths last time out had a horrible 5-345 record and none of those were aged 8 or more so with that in mind FLIPANDO has to be rejected. VAINGLORY may just be a bit out of his class. FAITHFULL RULER's win two starts ago has hurt his handicap mark and he looks on a stiff mark and in a class He hasnt tried before and with a low draw and a 3 week break and a dissapointing last run he isnt for me. I think this is between COLLATERAL DAMAGE and the lightly raced PENITENT and SOVEREIGN REMEDY. With PENITENT I looked at all horses like him with 4 runs coming from a 3yo handicap and horses with an identical profile had a 1-12 record so it's hard to take a strong view about him either way. I dont see an issue with SOVEREIGN REMEDY also lightly raced and COLLATERAL DAMAGE has won his last 4 races and is proven here as well.

SELECTION - PENITENT

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SOUTHWELL 3.50

Mercedes Benz of Derby Handicap
(CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-70) 5f

5/2 Simple Rhythm, 7/1 Halaak, 10/1 First Blade,
12/1 Colorus, 12/1 Steel City Boy, 14/1 Tanley,
16/1 First Order, 16/1 Lake Chini, 16/1 Silvanus,
20/1 Danum Dancer, Loose Caboose, 20/1 Molly Two,
50/1 Egyptian Lord.

This is a 5f Handicap for 0-80 rated horses and we have
134 similar races at this time of year. I would take out
horses drawn 10 or higher. If you go back to 2007 and
look at the 70 handicaps here over 5f that had 9 or more
runners in it you find horses drawn 12-13-14 had a 0-80
record. TANLEY - HALAAK and EGYPTIAN LORD
are all opposed with poor draws. I am also taking out the
horses drawn 10 and 11 as well. The last few handicaps
here with 9 or more runners show a massive low draw bias.
The recent winners came from stalls 3-3-2-5-1-2-6-2 and
24 of the last 26 winners were drawn in stall 1-2-3-4-5-6.
Because of this DANUM DANCER and SILVANUS have
to go as well. I wasnt bothered about rejecting HALAAK
as 134 races show 3yo fillies with 13 or more career runs
coming from a 5f race winning nothing when not running
within 2 weeks. All 41 that tried lost so I cant bet her from a poor draw. TANLEY is an easy rejection with just 1 run this season. No exposed filly won absent 7 weeks or more so LOOSE CABOOSE has to go absent 116 days so she is
unlikely to be fit. Older fillies beaten 10 + lengths last time had a 0-75 record so MOLLY TWO's out. FIRST ORDER
is interesting. On the plus side whilst he didnt look like he did enough last time he was twice badly handicapped and
ran a lot better than it looked. Secondly he is very well
handicapped at the moment. Against him are the fact he
could have been better drawn in stall 8. His stable havent
had a winner since June. Finally he may be a small field
horse. He has 6 wins with 9 or less runners. He has a 1-35
record in fields of 10 or more and thats a worry today.
STEEL CITY BOY has ran just twice since March and may not be at his peak yet. Male horses that come from 3yo handicaps over 5f had a poor 2-66 record. It was the
fillies that scored much better. LAKE CHINI isnt for me.
He has ran twice at Southwell before and was hammered
both times and he was fancied on both occasions. His sire
has a poor record with his Southwell runners and hasnt bred one thats won at 5f on the sand before which is a concern. COLORUS is statistically fine but he looks held on form by SIMPLE RHYTHM on his last run I would shortlist 3 horses.

SHORTLIST

SIMPLE RHYTHM
FIRST ORDER
FIRST BLADE


FIRST BLADE is well drawn. He ran an eyecatching race
last time at Nottingham and should have won. I dont have
a problem with his profile. I like his draw. Would have been a bit happier at 6f but he will be running on late and looks a horse about to win. SIMPLE RHYTHM had a Hat Trick fail last time out when running away from the winning group at Brighton last time. She must have a big chance. She won her only race here. I think she will be in the first 2 at least. FIRST ORDER is also very interesting. Main reservations were Stall 8 and a big field but 2 non runners make this a 12 runner race and thats a big help.

SELECTION - FIRST BLADE 12/1
SAVER - SIMPLE RHYTHM

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SOUTHWELL 5.00

coral.co.uk Handicap (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85) 6f

7/2 Ingleby Arch, 4/1 Lesley´s Choice, 9/2 Invincible Isle, 7/1 Imprimis Tagula, 8/1 Dancing Maite, 8/1 Fesko,
12/1 Pawan, 14/1 Dig Deep, Great Charm, 25/1 Suzie Quw.

This is a 6f Handicap for horses rated 0-85. In October
there has been 142 similar races. Considering that the
record of horses aged 9 or more is only 1-82 in these
races I couldnt bet PAWAN that age and coming from
a 5f race without a recent run. SUZIE QUW has to go
as a 3yo filly with an absence. DIG DEEP doesnt make
any appeal as a 7 year old with a 30 day break and with
having to drop in distance after a heavy defeat. I dont
like GREAT CHARM with several heavy defeats in a
row and just 1 run since July and he probably hasnt come
to himself yet. INVINCIBLE ISLE is a 3 year old filly
that comes from a 3yo handicap. In 142 races these 3
year old fillies doing this were only 3-86. All 3 that won
had ran in at least a Class 2 race before and she has not.
Those that had 6 or more starts were only 1-68 anyway
and INVINCIBLE ISLE also has to drop down from 7f
and I see her as unsafe. DANCING MAITE doesnt look
that to offer me much. I looked at all Fillies aged 3 like
FESKO that came from 6f all aged handicaps when having
13 or more runs. I found a 1-42 record from horses like
her and I can take or leave her but she is not impressive
statistically. IMPRIMIS TAGULA has a good chance
much as he is better handicapped on Grass at the moment.
INGLEBY ARCH has a strong profile and he's off 72 today.
Its interesting he has won 4 course and distance handicaps
off higher marks. That said he flopped in this race last
year with much less weight and IMPRIS TAGULA was
also well beaten in last years race.

SELECTION

LESLEY´S CHOICE is a 3 year old that comes from
a 5f race. I looked at all exposed 3 year olds like him
that did that. They had a 3-21 record. Throw out all
the ones with 9st or more and that becomes a 3-11
record. Those that came from Class 5 races or better
became a 3-8 record and those that had form in class
2 races or better as LESLEY´S CHOICE has became
a 3-5 record. All this means is that statistically there
is no reason at all why LESLEY´S CHOICE cant win.
Some may question the 6f trip as he hasnt won over
this far before but on his breeding that looks a plus.
You also have to say his Southwell form of W 2 3 2
from 4 races is excellent. His last run was excellent
as well. Coming second at Southwell over 5f when he
was drawn in stall 14 was a brilliant effort from that
draw. That was in first time blinkers. If they manage
to work again I would see LESLEY´S CHOICE as a
confident bet. Thats the only doubt I have but given
all the profiles here LESLEY´S CHOICE looks best.


In the Final race a preview isnt really worth it in this
7f Maiden. Godolphin run an unraced 3 year old colt
called SKYSURFERS. We dont know how good he is
or whether he will handle the surface or not but the
Ratings of all his rivals which show the highest rated
horse he faces is only 58 suggests to me that its very
unlikely that he wont be considerably better than that
and I personally couldnt oppose SKYSURFERS.

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