1 Account Bet

Redcar 5.10

MR REV £40 Each Way 10/1


TRIPLE DREAM £20 Saver 6/1

£100 Staked on the Bet


Going with an Account Bet and betting both the
Milton Bradley runners in the Maiden Handicap
at Redcar. There are 19 runners and MR REV is
a horse with a 0-25 career record but they are all
maidens in this race and many similar types have
won the race before. I want to save on his other
runner Triple Dream as he has a strong chance as
well. There are so few that can win this race and
getting a double figure price for MR REV looks
a great value bet to me as I hope my reasons for
the bet will show later. Its a Redcar Only Mail
today. I was planning a bet in the 4.40 but I'm
not convinced now and having come to the 5.10
I spent most time there and decided to leave the
other meetings alone today.


MR REV is 12/1 - Bet365 -
MR REV is 11/1 - VC -Betfred -Skybet
MR REV is 10/1 - Ladbrokes -Stan J -Spbet -Boyles -Tote

TRIPLE DREAMS is 13/2 - VC-StanJ -Skybet
TRIPLE DREAMS is 6/1 - Ladbrokes -PaddyP- SpBet
TRIPLE DREAMS is 11/2- Bet36f5-Betfred


There is No Message Tomorrow.

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G


WATSON'S BAY was only 4th yesterday. I took the view that
as he was held up in last place and finished strongly and was not beaten more than a length after being checked very late that the ride he got didnt help his chance at all. Not certain he would have won as several horses had first run on him and he never looked like a horse that should have gone 1.23 in running as he did but I cant help thinking Chris Catlin cost the horse with his ride and
with a better ride he had to have gone very close to winning the race. Thats my view much as its all too easy to blame a poor ride for a loser. I didnt nail it yesterday as I suspected and I felt the bank holiday circus proved too much for us today.



R E D C A R


Redcar gets going quite late today. I would not have a strong opinion about the maiden at 2.10 and I did not see any strong alternative to the odds on El Dececy in the Selling race 2.40pm.


REDCAR 3.10

7/2 Sarwin, 6/1 Templetuohy Max, 7/1 Desert Destiny, 7/1
Island Music, 7/1 Rosko, 10/1 Mooted, 10/1 Neon Blue, 10/1
Tour D'Amour, 10/1 Uncle Bertie, 14/1 Efidium, 14/1 Snow
Dancer, 25/1 Spirit Of France, 66/1 Borodinsky, Fyodorovich.

This 9f Handicap for 0-70 rated horses never really gripped me as I knew at some stage I'd have to make a decision on the Alan Swinbank runner and I didnt want to call that. Elsewhere I felt there were some negatives. EFIDIUM surely wont be able to come from a 7f race at aged 11. ISLAND MUSIC is a negative as a filly from a 7f race. I would not bet MOOTED much as statistically he isnt out of this and it was a personal choice to oppose a 4yo debutant from that yard. I have found some winners like NEON BLUE and he's not dead either from a statistical point of view but that does surprise me and I'd
not see an 8 year old coming from a heavy defeat as a horse I'd bet. Another to come from a big defeat is UNCLE BERTIE and he has a poor profile as well. I can argue that SNOW DANCER has a negative profile as an exposed mare well beaten recently. I am happy with my negatives but thats as far as I wanted to go in the race and the other runners can get on with it. If I was to have a bet in the race I'd be looking at place laying some of the negatives assuming they dont get to be silly prices

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REDCAR 3.40

7/2 Le Toreador, 4/1 Rasaman, 9/2 Indian Trail, 11/2 Baybshambles, 11/2 Pacific Pride, 8/1 Total Impact, 10/1 Discanti, 16/1 Stolt, 25/1 Hotham.

I felt this Handicap at was full of traps. I wouldnt have had STOLT in this. Statistically I've found winners with absences as long as TOTAL IMPACT so I couldnt make him a negative but he wouldnt be my choice. INDIAN TRAIL has at least one more win in him but 9 year olds score badly and he has to also drop in trip and what is a weak profile is counter balanced by a horse that looks well handicapped. My gut feeling is he could have been better placed and I wouldnt have selected him today. Neither would I have selected RASAMAN unless heavy rains come. If it feels fast and dry then I think that may beat him. It isnt a race I want to take any further but I wouldnt have gonewith the above horses for the selection.

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REDCAR 4.10

4/5 Maqaam, 2/1 Peaceful Rule, 5/1 Bogula,
25/1 Gwyre, 25/1 Silvertown Boy.

This 10f Maiden is a guessers race. Do you bet an unraced
horse like MAQAAM or a horse with experience thats just
been well beaten like PEACEFUL RULE. Who knows but I
ran horses like PEACEFUL RULE through all similar races.
Those that had 2 runs. One this year. Beaten 10 + lengths in that race. I found a 4-143 record and only 1 of those had an absence of over a month. Statistically MAQAAM looks a lot safer and would be my choice but he may be useless for all I know and any selection would only be a guess.

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REDCAR 4.40

ANDERSON BARROWCLIFF HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo,0-70) 6f

4/1 Laura's Lady, 7/1 Abbey Steps, 7/1 Dean Iarracht,
7/1 Where's Reiley, 8/1 Bold Ring, 8/1 Exceedingly Good,
10/1 Minturno, 10/1 Real Diamond, 10/1 Seldom, 14/1 Just
Timmy Marcus, 20/1 Africa's Star, 25/1 Venetian Lady,
50/1 Port Ronan.

* This is a 3yo Handicap for 0-69 rated horses
* Redcar has 3 renewals of this race
* There has been 197 similar races in May and June

NEGATIVES


* LAURA´S LADY is a filly with 1 career start
* She won a maiden on her only run
* In 197 races Fillies with under 3 runs were 0-13
* Fillies that came from maidens were just 3-118
* 18 Fillies like her won maidens and just 1 won
* None were as inexperienced as her
* There has been 1682 of these races at any distance
* Thats 1682 races in May and June at any trip
* Fillies from maidens with under 3 runs were 1-38
* None did it with 1 race as she has
* It included 14 beaten favourites and they all got beaten
* I think as a filly with 1 run she will struggle
* AFRICA´S STAR is a filly coming from a Nursery
* 58 Fillies tried to do that and only 1 won
* None did it from a 5f Nursery as she tried
* In 197 races Fillies from 5f races were just 3-190
* Those that came from 5f handicaps were 1-141
* AFRICA´S STAR has a poor profile
* REAL DIAMOND is a filly from a 2yo maiden
* 3 of the 48 winners managed that but all 3 had 3 runs
* None had 4 or more runs as she does
* None placed in those maidens as she did
* I looked at the 1682 races at all distances
* Fillies from 2yo maidens with 4 + runs were 2-94
* None of those won that maiden
* I dont think REAL DIAMOND is the right type
* PORT RONAN looks outclassed
* SELDOM comes from a 5f handicap
* In 197 races there were 18 horses doing that
* None were as inexperienced as he is
* Only 1 was beaten as far as he was last time
* I dont see SELDOM winning this race
* VENETIAN LADY is a filly from a 7f handicap
* I loked at Fillies that did that within the previous 2 weeks
* The record was 3-51 in the 197 races
* Most were lighter racedd than she is
* They all came from better class handicaps as well


POSSIBLES but REJECTED

* JUST TIMMY MARCUS doesnt appeal much
* He comes from a 3yo handicap with just 3 runs
* I couldnt find a similar winner in 197 races
* DEAN IARRACHT is fine statistically
* Ran well last time and no obvious flaws to his profile
* I would worry about his Draw in Stall 1
* Redcar has had 37 Handicaps since 2005 with 10 + runners
* Stalls 1 and Stalls 2 had a 0-65 record in these 37 races
* I think he may have the worst draw
* ABBEY STEPS also has a poor draw in stall 2
* I dont have a big problem with him otherwise
* MINTURNO Has a reasonable profile
* Statistically I am happy with him but not excited
* BOLD RING won last time at 80/1
* She isnt out of this but she is quite exposed
* There may have been an element of fluke in her last win
* EXCEEDINGLY GOOD is a filly from a 6f handicap
* She has had just 1 run this season
* In 197 races I looked at Fillies that did the same
* There were 50 horses that did that and just 2 won
* She has a better chance than that suggests
* She is quite similar to the two that won

SELECTION

* WHERE´S REILEY has a strong profile
* Males that came from 6f handicaps were fine
* Those like him with 5-8 career runs and 4 + this season
* These horses won 12 of the 197 winners
* 2 runs ago he won a 0-70 handicap at Newcastle
* He was only 5th when favourite last time out
* That doesnt worry me at all in this race
* All 3 winners of this race were similar types
* They all had 3 + runs this season and under 8 career runs
* He comes from the same Hamilton race as the 2006 winner
* With a good draw I fancy him to go close

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REDCAR 5.10

9/2 Triple Dream, 5/1 Monte Cassino, 8/1 Hansomis, Prince Of Delphi 8/1 Sheik'N'Knotsterd, 9/1 Just Sam, 10/1 Mr Rev, 12/1 Dashing Daniel 12/1 Josphiel, 14/1 Call Me Rosy, 16/1 Aegean Pride, 20/1 Tump Mac 25/1 Billy Bowmore, 33/1 Hits Only Time, 33/1 Maggie Maggie May 33/1 Park's Prodigy, Pinewood Lulu, Rightcar Lewis, 33/1 Warners Bay.

This is a maiden handicap for Amateur riders over 6 furlongs. In terms of any angles we have 16 renewals of this race but none at other tracks. I have looked at 243 similar low grade handicaps at all other tracks. I wouldn't have gone with MONTE CASSINO well beaten on his only run this year in a 5f race. I looked at all 243 races for horses with 1 run that year from a 5f race. The full
record was 4-112 but none were beaten as far as he was last time and I felt he was weak. So to is CALL ME ROSY as a mare with 1 run this year in a Maiden. In 243 races All fillies that came via maiden races had a 0-66 record. CALL ME ROSY fails that as does JOSPHIEL and RIGHTCAR LEWIS as well. PINEWOOD LULU has to go with 1 run this year hammered over a Mile.

PRINCE OF DELPHI does not appeal as I think Stall one is the worst draw unless the 4.40pm handicap shows I'm wrong. Redcar has had 37 Handicaps since 2005 with 10 + runners and Stalls 1 and Stalls 2 had a 0-65 record in 37 races. That's reason enough to oppose him and he steps up in trip as well. HITS ONLY TIME looks unlikely to win from a 3yo handicap and none of the 243 winners managed that coming from a 3yo handicap over 5f.

HANSOMIS has to go as a seasonal debutant female especially with a 0-20 career record. You wont see any past winner remotely like DASHING DANIEL. I oppose MAGGIE MAGGIE MAY absent years. Fillies hammered in claimers like AEGEAN PRIDE dont win. Debutants like WARNERS BAY are very poor. I dont see a case for PARK´S PRODIGY absent so long. TUMP MAC is poor as a lightly raced debutant whose shown nothing. Didn't like BILLY BOWMORE with a worrying absence and a bad draw and down from a mile race. Horses from claiming races had a 0-32 record in this race . SHEIK´N´KNOTSTERD is attempting to do that and 9 did win in 243 other races. Horses from Claiming races with under 5 runs that season had a miserable 1-106 record and when you consider SHEIK´N´KNOTSTERD started 200/1 in a Claimer last time he looks hard to fancy. This leaves 3 runners

TRIPLE DREAM - JUST SAM - MR REV

JUST SAM is a filly that comes from an 8f handicap. In 243
races these types were 1-51 and that sole winner had a more recent run and far more races that year as well and none did it in this race. That said this race has gone to 4 horses down from 8f races and whilst all 4 were Male I couldnt rule JUST SAM out because of that as she is fit and well drawn. However in the 16 renewals of this race Fillies are just 1-127 and thats not a good sign for anyone betting a filly. I feel Milton Bradley may win this with one of his two horses in this race MR REV and
TRIPLE DREAM.


TRIPLE DREAM is a 4yo that comes from a 5f race. I have
found winners like him in the 243 race and last years winner of this race (Staked A Claim) wasnt as dissimilar type. There are some concerns with TRIPLE DREAM. He looks weak in the market and he hasnt yet ran at 6f yet so there are doubts and question marks he has to answer. MR REV is hard to read and is a stablemate of TRIPLE DREAM.

Statistically MR REV has an excellent chance. I think his
best trip will be 6f. I base that as all his best Racing Post Ratings come at this trip. He burst through at Brighton last time over 6f209y before fading. At the 6f marker he had the race won last time out. He is consistent. He is a very fit horse and running well and drawn well. In a race littered with weak types and with 4 places available I am very sweet on MR REV gaining his first win in a maiden handicap contested by no horses that have won before.

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