1 Bet Today

Salisbury 5.25

MYKINGDOMFORAHORSE

£50 Win

Generally 3/1 and that should be the sort
of price the horse will be tonight.


Today's message is a pretty comprehensive and high
tempo message. Quality in places but these sorts of
message always run the risk of being overcooked and
carrying a lot of risk with the analysis spread thinly
so I will have to be careful with the staking today. I
will have a look at all options today. Went with 1 bet
but it is a day where there are almost too many options.


Salisbury 2.00

I have to bet PRINCE OF THEBES and FIRE KING
at good prices in a fascinating complex race.

Newcastle 2.10

RAINBOW BAY a win bet at 7/1 but short of bet status
and I wasnt sold completely.

Salisbury 3.05

VHUJON strongly considered as an e/w bet 5/1 and it
was a close call between him and the bet today.

Nottingham 4.35

Worth a bet and I think I have a place banker

Salisbury 5.20

MYKINGDOMFORAHORSE looks the one

Newcastle 5.30

I dont think my split stake conclusion will lose money

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T O D A Y S R A C I N G


No Bets yesterday. Just a couple of Mentions and a 1st
and a 2nd. Ghost Dancer could only managed second
and shouldnt really have been odds on and as I stated
in the message he was too short really. My Mate Max
won having been backed from 8/1 to 9/2 and I hope a
few of you backed him even if it was only to trade. It
wasnt a message I was happy with but all the evidence
lately has been I am in form and reading things well.


My fear today is over-cooking the message as there is
a lot to look at and discuss and when you get cards at
certain tracks that take a lot of sorting out I can fall
in the trap of spending too long on the typing and not
enough on the study which eventually leads to the top
of the message business so intend to go with a Format
that will buy me a bit more time. I think my weakest
track today is NOTTINGHAM so I will start there
and get it out of the way. NEWCASTLE then follows
and then SALISBURY.





N O T T I N G H A M


Not the strongest of cards at Nottingham. Lots of hard
maidens and Nurseries and small fields. Nothing much I
can say in the opening maiden and the 3yo handicap
over 5f looks too tight statistically and a typically poor
trends race.


The 2m Handicap at 3.25 is just scrappy now there
is a non runner. SHERMAN MCCOY may not stay
much as thats an assumption. I dont find it easy to
forgive CURACAO a big defeat last time. The Mind
game comes with SALLY FORTH. If you look at all the
2m races like this and look at Fillies like her who won a
2m Handicap last time you find a brilliant 6-10 record.
My only dilemma is all these winning fillies had at least
6 career starts and SALLY FORTH has had just 4 and
no filly that inexperienced tried. Going to Bail out but
SALLY FORTH looks the most promising.


Not a lot I can say in the Fillies Maiden at 4pm where
many unraced horses could win. I didnt really see that
Michevious Spirit was worth risking as she finished her
debut race behind a 60 rated horse and there will be a
lot better horses in this race. BINT ALMATAR looks
an obvious one but a hard to take a strong view about.


The 4.35 is an all aged maiden over a Mile. There has
been 72 similar races at this time of year. I looked at
horses beaten 10 + lengths last time out. Those that
were beaten 10 + lengths in a handicap last time out
had a 0-80 record so MOUNTAIN FOREST has to
go as does OLIVE GREEN. I wouldnt want a horse
from a 2yo maiden like BEAT FASTER. Another
well beaten last time was CAPEABILITY. I looked
at all horses like him down in trip well beaten last
time and no horse won with 4 or more previous runs.
He isnt as good as his rating. He may win but there is
not a similar winner of a similar race. My problems
with MR UDAGAWA - PAPYRIAN -SUBURBIA
are that they are all drawn very high and horses in
very high stalls are at a disadvantage over this course
and distance. STAR GAZING is unraced. Given the
choice I'd rather not have an unraced horse but its
a race with losts of poor profiles and they do win
so if money came for him I'd respect him. Its a bit
of a mess really and the draw may have the final say.

CONCLUSION

MR UDAGAWA Looks an option to me. Dont think
he stayed the extended trip over at Wolves last time.
He would have won easily at a bit shorter. I think he
is a good bet despite the draw but I would lay him back
in running at just under evens if you bet him. It will
still be a good pay out and it takes the stamina doubt
off the table. Statistically I see some promise in the
filly FORWARD PLANNING and she may be worth
a bet at a double figure price. I think MR UDAGUWA
is a place banker. That would be the biggest stake I'd
have in the race. I would make sure I couldnt lose if
FORWARD PLANNING won so a saver on her.




The Nursery at 5.10pm looks repulsive. I couldnt bet
a horse at a very short price without seeing a similar
horse win a similar race. FANTASTIC PICK has won
twice already. There has only been 18 Nurseries at
this time of year beyond 9f and none of the 18 that
won had won twice already. SIXPENNY MOON and
BRUNETTE are negatives as no horse won a race
having 5 or more runs when beaten over 10 lengths
last time. I wonder if ELLA GRACE isnt the best
option each way. She was second last time out to
FANTASTIC PICK and isnt an obvious horse to
reverse the form at these weights but she did have
to come from 6f to 8f last timne out and would
not have had a straight forward task. Given the
price of the favourite ELLA GRACE may be the
safer option each way but the race is a nightmare.


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N E W C A S T L E


Ignoring the Maiden at 1.40 especially now there are just
7 runners. Normally I like to oppose the horses from the
"Auction" maidens and stay with horses from the ordinary
maidens. That means Brinscall could be opposable and is
a bit exposed as well. I wouldnt have selected him to win.
I think WISHBONE is probably going to win.


NEWCASTLE 2.10

Low Grade 5f Handicap for 0-60 horses. I like to match a
horse as closely as possible with as many similar types who
won similar races. There are many in this race that have a
profile perhaps just one similar winner had and that makes
it hard to rule them out and hard to be confident about them. Exposed mares like COMPTONSPIRIT won just 1 race when
down in trip. THUNDER BAY is an exposed 4yo and whilst
these types have won none had ran in Group class before as
he has done. KHEYLIDE is an exposed 3yo and no Male 3
year old won a race when exposed. URSUS is a 4yo and he
comes from a 6f race and a 1-56 record does not appeal as
strong. BEES RIVER is a 3yo with 16 starts. I looked at all
3 year olds with 13 + runs and none won without a run that
was within 2 weeks and he has been off a Month. All these
just didnt come out as good enough. I think you have to be
against STAR ADDITION - PRINCESS CHARLMANE and TAKE THAT. Given all the profiles there were only two that I liked and I would suggest this pair as most interesting

Shortlist - RAINBOW BAY + RIO SANDS

SELECTION - RAINBOW BAY



NEWCASTLE 2.40

This is Division Two of the opening race. I would oppose
TANLEY with a long absence. BETTYS TOUCH comes out very badly from a maiden and one run this year. I see
HANDCUFF and TOWN HOUSE as unsafe. Fillies who ran in the last month over 5f and who lost by 6 lengths or more had a 1-52 record and all fillies losing a long way had far more runs this year than GREEN POPPY who is not for me. No filly dropped from a 6f race recently if beaten as far as FOREIGN RHYTHM. I think it probably will come down to the market leaders. I can understand any "Time" fans betting REVUE PRINCESS rather than Dalarossie. After all they ran in seperate divisions of the same race last time. Both were beaten about a length but REVUE PRINCESS ran in a much faster division and she also carried more weight. She isnt a the pick. I dont have one. I just listed horses I didnt like and felt one of the fancied runners would win.


NEWCASTLE 4.25

42ND STREET HANDICAP(CLASS 5)(3yo+ 0-70) 1m

9/4 Amethyst Dawn, 9/2 Aussie Blue, 6/1 Fathey
13/2 Lujano, 8/1 Shadowtime, 12/1 Petsas Pleasure
14/1 Society Music, 16/1 Ella Woodcock, Border Owl
20/1 Navajo Joe, 25/1 Media Stars, Cause For Applause.

* This is an 8f handicap for 0-67 rated horses
* We have seen 327 similar handicaps at all tracks
* MEDIA STARS doesnt appeal absent 156 days
* Only 6 of the 327 winners were absent 4 + months
* Those aged under 5 had a 1-139 record
* 4yo Males like MEDIA STAR doing it were 0-57
* CAUSE FOR APPLAUSE has a 188 day absence
* He comes from a 3yo seller and no winner did that
* AMETHYST DAWN is a filly from a 3yo handicap
* Fillies doing that had a 7-171 record
* Those with 9 + runs had a poor 1-89 record
* AMETHYST DAWN has 14 runs and looks weak
* ELLA WOODCOCK has to drop from 13f to 8f
* Thats a massive drop of 5 furlongs
* No horse like him won dropping that far
* He was also hammered just 4 days ago and looks wrong
* NAVAJO JOE looks weak coming from a 6f race
* Only 6 of the 337 winners did that and none were like him
* I dont fancy SOCIETY MUSIC
* She is a mare thats come from a selling race
* No female horse won any of the 337 races doing that
* She has also had just 1 run in 119 days and may be unfit
* I looked at horses like PETSAS PLEASURE
* Male 3 year olds that come from 3yo handicaps
* He has 10 runs and I looked at all with 7-12 career runs
* There were 10 winners that did that
* Those beaten 6 + lengths last time out were 1-88
* Raises a question whether PETSAS PLEASURE did enough
* He looks unsafe to me
* BORDER OWL was hammered 33 lengths 13 days ago
* That was his first run since early July
* I dont see him as likely to be fit enough to win
* SHADOWTIME is an exposed 4 year old
* He comes from a 9f handicap
* I looked at 4 year olds exposed and down in trip
* They had a poor 2-89 record
* All 68 lost since 1997
* Those like him running within 2 weeks were 0-43
* SHADOWTIME looks unsafe to me

SHORTLIST

* AUSSIE BLUE has no strong flaws statistically
* He also has no great reasons to bet him
* He has won twice and from much lower marks
* He is just a limited horse running well in his grade
* He is vulnerable to any horse with a better profile
* LUJANO has a good profile
* Unexposed 4 year old that won last time are solid
* He has to show he isnt a better horse on sand
* FATHEY is a 3yo coming from a 7f race
* All 3 year olds that did that were similar types
* Recent run - not beaten that far - backclass and fitness
* FATHEY has a good chance in this race

SELECTION

FATHEY - Win Bet
LUJANO - Saver


NEWCASTLE 5.00

There has only beet 37 handicaps over 2 miles for 3yo's
at this time of year. None came from 10f races so I dont
want TRUMPSTOO. I am agaisnt MADAM'X from a seller
and I didnt think ORSIPPUS would be fit. I dont like fillies
well beaten last time so DROP THE HAMMER doesnt do
it for me. I dont want KHAYAR as I think stamina could
be a big problem. The other three in my view will probably
provide the winner. They are all fillies from 14f races and
whilst several winners did the same none came from class 6
races like Diktalina or Shanavaz so TWIST MAGIC is just
the preference in an open race.

NEWCASTLE 5.30

There has been 155 of these 12f handicaps in September
and October. REAL DESIRE was beaten too far in a 3yo
handicap last time. CASINO NIGHT is opposed as a filly
from an 8f race. Only 1 of the 155 winners were fillies
doing that and none were older horses or had more than
5 career runs so she looks vulnerable. GRAYLYN RUBY
wouldnt be my first pick as exposed 4 year olds that were
beaten 10 + lengths last time struggled. ZEFOOHA is a
filly beaten 18 lengths last time. Fillies beaten by at least
10 lengths last time when having 9 or more career runs
had a 3-126 record and all 3 winners had more backclass
than she does and those than ran within the previous 31
days had a less than impressive 1-76 record. I do not see
THAT'LL DO NICELY as safe. He has an absence and
was well beaten last time out and for a lightly raced 6yo
not many similar horses win. I think the winners one of
the other runners. SUMMER LODGE is statistically fine
as is CAPABLE GUEST. No problems with either. I see
DECHIPER in two ways. On the negative side he is seven
and was well beaten last time and has a career high mark.
On the Positive side he likes it here and so do his stable
so I would not underestimate him. The other dilemma is
AFRICAN CHEETAH. If you take horses with a profile
like him. 3 year olds coming from a recent race over 10f
when placed 1-2-3-4 last time out you find a 2-2 record.
I think statistically he is fine. The only problem for me
is whether he will stay 12f by Pivotal and not much sign
of stamina in his family. I see this as a split stake race.
Half stakes on AFRICAN CHEETAH to win and the
other half on CAPABLE GUEST to place.

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S A L I S B U R Y


SALISBURY 2.00

This is a Mile handicap. Fascinating that the topweight
in this race PRINCE OF THEBES has slotted into a 0-61
handicap having come from a 0-92 handicap. Thats a huge
drop in class. He is however ageing now at 8 and he was a
well beaten horse last time by 9 lengths. Before that he was
only beaten 4 lengths in a 0-100 handicap at Kempton. Its
interesting that in a 67 race career he now faces the lowest class of race he has ever ran in. Cards on the Table - I'm not sure how to rate him. He could be a certainty yet he could also be an ageing deteriorating type that lets you down. I thought I'd see how many of his rivals I could rule out and then see what the position was. There has been 206 of these races at this time of year. Fillies aged 3 that had 9 or more career runs had a poor 4-190 record. If you take these 3yo fillies with 9 or more runs none came from a 6f race so I'm against SOUL SISTER - Those that were not placed last time out were 0-124 so SHARED MOMENT has to go as does the underraced DREAM HUNTRESS. Other negatives that I see are MY JEANIE underraced this year. MIGHTY MOVER is 7 and has just 1 run this season. No horse that age had just 1 run this year. I did find a 6 year old winning with one run but no horse his age and although I wouldnt be dogmatic in opposing him I couldnt bet him myself. I would have to be against DOUBLE VALENTINE a female from a claimer and with just 1 run since May. AINE´S DELIGHT doesnt really appeal as a young filly well beaten last time. I see this between The following 4 horses -

PRINCE OF THEBES - SEASONAL CROSS
FIRE KING - SOLO RIVER

I dont have a problem with SEASONAL CROSS much as
She has only low grade form. SOLO RIVER is a similar
type as an exposed 4 year old. I dont see any problems
with these. I wouldnt rule out FIRE KING. I backed him
at Kempton last week at 10/1 and he didnt run too badly
and he is unexposed. I thought he may have won before
that at Brighton had he not been hampered. Given all
the issues I see the race best left to two horses. Whilst I
respect Solo River and Seasonal Cross I think the best
option here is a split staked bet.

Win Bet PRINCE OF THEBES 8/1
Win Bet FIRE KING 10/1

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SALISBURY 2.30


I dont want to do the Claimer at 2.30pm as there are just 4
runners. I would argue that whilst BADGER the 8/11 favourite will take some beating in all claimers around this trip horses from maidens are 0-50 and I wouldnt want to bet any claimer coming from a maiden at odds on. I would just make a token choice in SIXTIES SWINGER.


SALISBURY 3.05

15/8 Triple Dream, 9/2 Royal Intruder, 11/2 Vhujon,
13/2 Maverin, 8/1 Francis Walsingham, 8/1 Victoria Sponge,
14/1 Phantom Whisper, 16/1 Steelcut, 20/1 Princess Valerina.

* This is a 0-84 handicap over 6f
* Salisbury have had 10 renewals of this race
* There has been 226 similar races elsewhere

If you look at Male horses that come from Maidens in
the 226 similar races you find a 0-52 record so I wouldnt
want to bet MAVERIN. If you look at Fillies that come
from a 3yo handicap like VICTORIA SPONGE when they
had 7 + career runs they had a weak 3-122 record. Thats
not a good strike rate and when they ran within 2 weeks
they were 0-51. When they were 1-2-3-4 last time out
they were 0-34 and when they had 9st 5lbs or more they
were 0-36 as well and as VICTORIA SPONGE fails those
angles she is opposed. In 226 races horses from Claiming
races had a 1-101 record so STEELCUT doesnt appeal.
PHANTOM WHISPER has not got his favoured ground
and exposed horses like him with 31 + days absence who
are dropping from a 7f race had a 1-54 record in the 226
races and none had his weight or were beaten as far as he
was last time out so he looks opposable. I have found one
winner like FRANCIS WALSINGHAM so I couldnt rule him
out but as a 3yo from a 5f handicap for 3 year olds only
and a 48 day break I would not see him as ideal. The ground is a worry for PRINCESS VALERINA but I give her some
sort of chance at 16/1 + . ROYAL INTRUDER is 4 and
comes from a 5f race. I looked at all horses like that and
without a run within 2 weeks they had a 4-121 record. Again he cant be a negative but he doesnt have a greaty profile. I see TRIPLE DREAM as a strong runner. I think the value here is VHUJON around 7/1. He loves a small field. He's well handicapped and unbeaten in two starts here. Its possibly an interesting thing that all 10 past winners of this race unplaced last time out as he did. VHUJON e/w for me.


SALISBURY 3.40

There has been 10 renewals of this Novice race. If you
look at horses that stepped up from 6f races in these 10
renewals you find that with under 3 career starts they had
a 0-14 record. Not a brilliant statistic but none have won
and given that SIDE GLANCE and FOLLY BRIDGE fail
that and given the fact he is rated a lot higher than any
other runner this looks FREMONT's race to lose and I'd
see the only option here FREMONT.


SALISBURY 4.50

This is a Mile handicap. I have looked at 84 similar races
at this time of year. I would oppose the following horses.
CHRISTOPHERS QUEST is out with a huge absence. I
dont like horses from Maidens. They have a 1-64 record
and none had under 9 runs so PAGAN FORCE isnt for me.
IN THE MOOD is also out from a maiden with just 3 runs
and 1 run this season. No horse came from claimers with
under 7 runs this year and FOXTROT BRAVO has only 3
and horses his age from Claimers struggled anyway (1-43).
IRON MAN OF MERSEY - BATCHWORTH BLAISE are
weak looking. HIGHLAND STARLIGHT is weak as a 3yo
filly with just 3 runs this season. ANNES ROCKET is an
exposed 4yo from a 7f race. Two of the 84 winners had
that profile but both placed last time and he didnt and I
would argue he was unsafe. I respect DICHOH but horses
like him exposed from Claimers only had a 1-53 record.
Irish raider ORPEN WINGER is impossible to assess but
I can show 4 year olds with 1-2-3 runs that year are 0-59
so there is a doubt there. I think DR WINTRINGHAM
will probably win this race.


SALISBURY 5.20

Staying Handicap. I didnt want WESTER ROSS with
just 2 runs this season. FANTINO looks a doubtful
stayer and I didnt like his profile. There has been 130
similar races to this and none of the 130 winners were
as inexperienced as DRUSSEL and I dont fancy him to
win a race with just 2 runs over 14f. WHENEVER does
not look ready. WARRIOR CONQUEST looks ungenuine.
I dont see the recently downgraded SUFAD as the one.
If you look at 3 year olds that come from 3yo handicaps
over 2 miles like THEOLOGIST you find a weak 1-52
record. All 32 that were Male lost. None were maidens.
The only horse to win had ran in a much higher race
than THEOLOGIST has and had less weight and a more
recent run and I cant make the case for him. I would see
ROYAL WILLY as having a chance but I cant match a
similar winner to him well enough and he does look a bit
underraced recently. MYKINGDOMFORAHORSE looks
the one. I put his exact profile through the 130 races
and came out with a 3-3 record.

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