Mathematician 506 (resend) | 27-10-2009 |
No Bet Today
Quiet Start to the week as usual for a Tuesday.
I am just going to suggest one bet today as a
Mention. It runs at Southwell in the 1.50pm.
Southwell 1.50
SPEEDYFIX 5/1
Each Way
There is some 6/1 (Bet365) and he is 11/2 with
The Tote -Skybet and William Hill but generally
a 5/1 chance other than that. Worth a small bet.
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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G
First message of the week and No great attempt
at any analysis today. Only a summarised view.
Looked at most races today but only conclusions.
C A T T E R I C K
Catterick 1.00
I dont fancy Briary Mac for a couple of reasons the
ground being one but unraced opponents male it too
open to call. No outstanding profile. There has been
bits of money for REVELATOR at a big price and its
as good a guess as any.
Catterick 1.30
I didnt like the profiles of Dubai Diva - Simple Jim
Park's Prodigy - No Wonga - Nayessence - Starburst.
Open race. Complicated issues. Strongest runners for
me are Follow The Sun and Tropical Duke and draw
results here recently tell me to relax about their high
draws.
Catterick 2.00
I didnt like Silk Gallery -Highland Warrior -Divine Spirit.
I dont see any outsiders winning. I wasnt convinced that
Chosen One was acceptable. Two big priced horses that
I liked. FIRST BLADE was a horse I tipped ata big price
last time. Today he is 20/1 and not a complete no hoper
and Alacity came out well for a 16/1 chance. Too tough
Catterick 2.30
Understudied this race. Give me a free bet and it would be
a split stake bet. Half on Lovely Thought and the other
Half of Noodles Blue Boy. Take 3/1 both and either wins
makes an even money winner. I've understudied the race.
Catterick 3.00
Negatives for me are Intervision - Bid For Gold - Conry
Cara´s Request- Grissom - Favourite Girl - Bond City and
I wasnt convinced with Malcheek or the rank outsiders.
Catterick 3.30
Negatives are Abstract Folly - Agglestone Rock- Red Wine -
Sergeant Pink - Starbougg -Shanavaz -Rapid Desire and the
two rank outsiders. I wasnt convinced about Rare Ruby. In
the end 3 look shortlistable with Jackday and Baan best.
Catterick 4.00
Looks too risky. Statistical negatives include Amical Risks
Jenny Soba -Flora´s Pride -Lisbon Lion - Covert Mission -
Aspirational -Danzig Fox - Gulnaz - Intavac Boy
Y A R M O U T H
Yarmouth 12.40
I didnt like Mile High Lad. The best trial race is the one 7 days ago involving Bromhead - Rose Of Coma -Intikama
but they all just fall short of "Perfect profiles". Very messy as a race. Rose Of Coma looks a big price but she isnt certain to frame. I would pick her out at the prices as the best bet in a race that you have to guess about anyway.
Yarmouth 1.10
I think Longliner will win but too short for me.
Yarmouth 1.40
Looks a split stake race. Half on London Strike to win and
half on Mass Rally to place.
Yarmouth 2.40
I didnt like Whipperway. Respect Vito Volterra but felt he
was too short given all his issues. I think trying to find the best profile thats not too short leads to RAGSTA. I think she is the best bet in the each way. Like her. Not convinced she has the class but feel she has enough to be the choice.
Yarmouth 4.10
I thought Racing Hero would win but also felt he was short
enough given the risks he also brings. I still think he will win.
S O U T H W E L L
Southwell 1.20
No Opinions are safe. The gamble has been withdrawn and
the other experienced types in the race leave me cold. The
only one left was the unraced Bowmaker but I dont know
anything about him.
Southwell 1.50
Bonasera - Maiwand are outclassed. Miss Taken has a very
poor profile. SPINNING SPIRIT and WE´LL DEAL AGAIN
look vulnerable statistically. KALAHARI DESERT comes out
as questionable from an Auction Maiden. SIXTIES ROCK is
too risky and needs plenty of improvement. I cant find any
similar race won by a horse like LEES ANTHEM. I didnt see
enough in IMJIN RIVER I liked buty cant rule him out. You
have to make assumptions SPEEDYFIX and NABRINA will
handle the track but both are likeable. SPEEDYFIX ran a big
race from a poor position last time and her sire is showing it is likely to be the best trip and has bred a winner here before from just 4 runners. NABRINA ran a good race last time from a poor draw. Her previous run was also a very creditable effort. I have this as a race either can win but I prefer the Colt from a good draw so SPEEDYFIX looks the best each way.
Southwell 2.20
Complicated nursery. Profiles I did not like included Zaskia - Michaelmas Daisy - Luv U Noo- Old Devil Moon - Avec Moi -Polish Steps . The best options are hardly bet compelling and risky but I'd shortlist ANGIES NAP and CAPE KIMBERLEY.
Southwell 2.50
These races dont exist at this time of year. It will come down to fitness and ability to handle the track as several horses are doubtful on both fronts. The obvious bet for me has to be an each way bet on ROWE PARK who is at least fit and loves a small field and handles the surface. He has to be the safe bet.
Southwell 3.20
Went through these one by one. Six runners and I can show
Six horrible profiles. They are all weak statistically but one has to win. Not convinced the favourite Lucky Punt will be effective over this far. Felt the bet was TRIP THE LIGHT with Tilt an option as a saver but nothing here is safe.
Southwell 4.20
Very few similar races to get angles from. I didnt much like Red Expresso - Echo Dancer - Wing Diva. If I had to take aguess it would be Eightdaysaweek each way but its a guess.
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