No Account Bet

No Selection Today

With Chepstow being abandoned the message is now
looking briefly at two Catterick races - 7 Lingfield races
and 4 Wolverhampton ones. Thats 13 races but I have not gone to town on any of the previews and have cut them to the bone in places. It reads like a summarised message. Sometimes I suggest you follow the message through to the end and have several bets when I like what I have but I think you would be mad to do that today. I have a Zero Tolerance policy when Lingfield doesnt offer much and I would be sceptical about all of my previews there today. I wanted a less intense sort of message as I want to get tomorrow right and also want to get a Sunday message out as well just in case the predicted freeze up happens next week. Treat today as a weak day with better to come over
the weekend and if you pick anything to bet from the
message keep it to small stakes as today was never looking like it was going to provide a strong bet once we had lost Chepstow.

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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G


Not too bad a message yesterday. The planned selection
was a non runner. I was looking at One Way Ticket as
he had ran the night before at Kempton. In that race he
easily beat Spanish Ace who was beaten under 2 lengths
yesterday in the same race so I think its quite likely that
he would have been 1st or 2nd had he ran. He didn't run
though and we were selection free on the day. That said
the bottom of the message held its own. Off to a good
start with an easy winner at 15/8 and The Geester won
at 4/1 as well. We had El Diego beaten at 1.02 in running
as he failed to stay once looking a certainty. After that we had Bahamian Bay missing the break and she must have
gone close with a level start. Tough card like so many at
Southwell but were not leaving many meetings without
winners and whilst I am finding it hard to carve out strong bets I'm certainly not out of form at all and getting plenty of previews right.



N A T I O N A L H U N T


Chepstow has been abandoned after heavy rain and the
National Hunt part of the message has suffered because
of that as I had some opinions in most races there. We
are just left with Catterick and I only had two races I
wanted to comment on there so we are very short of
substance over the sticks today.

In the 1.00pm race I'd try and get Etoile Russe beaten on
his seasonal debut and consider something else each way
against him. Slight preference for COCONUT BEACH but its tight and several have chances. No seasonal debut won a selling hurdle like this at this time of year so I think
its worth searching for something against Etoile Russe and
COCONUT BEACH would be my e/w choice


In the 1.30 it will be strange to see RIVER ARDECHE
run after a smart sand win recently. Problems with him
for me will be soft ground. He may hate it and it would
worry me. ELK TRAIL's problem could be Stamina as the sire was a sprinter. BONNY BRIGHT EYES has 1 career run and in this race horses with 1 run were 0-58. Its not a race you can sort out as you wont know how horses handle the ground and the distance but strongest profile has to belong to LA FORTALESA whoes also the only past winner in the field. Horses that won a race and that had 2 or more previous runs had a 6-15 record in this race. I would have been happier if he'd not been beaten so far in this race but others had also been beaten before winning. I would shortlist two in this. LA FORTALESA and HARRISONS STAR and
given all the issues It wouldnt be an easy race to call.
They would be my two and if I was playing I would
consider a place bet on Harrison's Star.

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L I N G F I E L D


Zero Tolerance is my motto at Lingfield such are the
dangers of betting here at the moment. With today's
card at Lingfield I am just running through a few of
the shortlists and not doing the standard analysis as
you would normally get in a standard message

LINGFIELD 12.40

7/2 She's So Pretty, 4/1 Sunset Boulevard, 11/2 They All
Laughed, 6/1 Corlough Mountain, 8/1 Dundry, 10/1 Mustajed,
11/1 Black Tor Figarro, 12/1 Strike Force, 12/1 Wester Lodge, 14/1 Rock Peak, 28/1 Autumn Charm, 50/1 Charlie Bear.

The Amateur riders handicap opening the card looks
competetive with a big field which is bad enough here
without relying on Amateur riders making mistakes.
I took the view that about half a dozen potentially
could win. First of all you have to take a view about
the favourite SHE´S SO PRETTY as a filly that has
been off the track 82 days. I am opposing her myself
but I have found the odd winner like her. I felt the race
is best left to one of three horses. I respect last time
out winner CORLOUGH MOUNTAIN but dont see him as the winner. THEY ALL LAUGHED is a big runner and a danger to MUSTAJED who I liked in an open race. MUSTAJED for me


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LINGFIELD 1.10

3/1 Night Orbit, 9/2 Ben Bacchus, 5/1 Augustus John, 7/1
Papradon, 7/1 William's Way, 10/1 Caltire, 12/1 Drum Major, 12/1 Turner's Touch, 20/1 Home, 20/1 Munich, 33/1 Olivino.

The second division of Amateurs has less runners but is
no easier. I think there are five solid runners that should provide the winner and I think I'd have to shortlist the 5 market leaders which is a dissapointment. I didnt see any or much weakness in NIGHT ORBIT, BEN BACCHUS AUGUSTUS JOHN, DRUM MAJOR or WILLIAM´S WAY. Hard to get the shortlist down past these 5 runners and all are statistically strong. Looks too warm for me

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LINGFIELD 1.40

4/5 Bomber Brown, 4/1 Bromhead, 9/2 Key Regard, 7/1
Kochanski, 14/1 General Sam, 50/1 Evette, 50/1 Myshkin.

This 10f maiden is an information race really and as just 7 runners go to post including fancied unraced horses I am
wasting my time there although I wasnt convinced about
the favourite BOMBER BROWN and I would be looking elsewhere given his odds. It is a guessers race but it strikes me BOMBER BROWN is 8/11 and a split stake bet on
his two main market rivals may make more sense. Both
BROMHEAD and KOCHANSKI are from big yards and it comes out as odds against if you bet them both and that might be better value getting a better price and having two
running for you in an unsortable maiden

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LINGFIELD 2.10

4/1 General Feeling, 9/2 Bavarica, 6/1 Mountain Pass, 7/1
Melt, 8/1 The Wily Woodcock, 9/1 Bookiebasher Babe,
10/1 Onenightinlisbon, 10/1 Sir Ike, 12/1 Haasem, 14/1
Johnny Friendly, 16/1 Maybe I Wont, 33/1 Annes Rocket.

This 8f handicap is Lethal. Again I had to shortlist the
strongest runners and I had 5 of these. That tells me the
race is too strong to concentrate on but I dont have any
problem with General Feeling- Mountain Pass , Bavarica
Bookiebasher Babe or Haasem and would be going with
one of those five in any preview. The most interesting
has to be BAVARICA much as her price is now looking
skinny enough at 3/1. May be a race to consider her as a
win option and HAASEM as a place option.

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LINGFIELD 2.45

5/4 Woolston Ferry, 4/1 My Sweet Georgia, 6/1 Cognac Boy,
7/1 Art Fund, 8/1 Spinight, 20/1 Cwmni, 20/1 Nun Today,
20/1 Wickedly Fast, 33/1 Patience Rewarded.

This is a 3yo claimer over 7f. All aged claimer have much
better trends and I dont see any compelling angles in this
race. I would be against Spinight with an absence and the
jump in trip and would also oppose all the lower weighted
horses like Cwmni, Nun Today , Patience Rewarded and
Wickedly Fast . The race really depends on how the short
priced favourite WOOLSTON FERRY runs as he is the
best horse at the weights but having 1 run in over 10 weeks he may not be as sharp as many. I went with ART FUND
last time but he had a poor ride and should have placed. You would have thought he wants this trip but he was far from impressive statistically so I wont risk him again. I thought COGNAC BOY came out very nicely statistically and he would be the danger to the favourite for me. I would be
looking at a saver on the favourite and a win bet on the
better priced COGNAC BOY. If the favourite wins you
wont lose and if COGNAC BOY wins you in clover.

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LINGFIELD 3.20

ASHDOWN FOREST SELLING HANDICAP
(CLASS 6) (4yo+,0-60) 2m

4/1 Vanquisher, 5/1 Sir Liam, 6/1 Spume, 6/1 Starstruck Peter, 7/1 Carlton Scroop, 12/1 Magic Kahyasi, 12/1 Shayera, 14/1 Mulaazem, 14/1 Play Master, 14/1 Ten Spot, 20/1 Barodine, 20/1 Ocean Pride, 33/1 Force Tradition, 33/1 Huck Finn.

* This is a 2m Selling Handicap
* We have had about 166 similar races run
* I would take out all the horses from 10f or shorter
* The 6f step up is too severe and these three are out
* HUCK FINN - OCEAN PRIDE - TEN SPOT
* FORCE TRADITION looks outclassed
* Only 5 of the 166 winners had 7 months absence
* None of these were aged 4 or 5 (0-34)
* STARSTRUCK PETER is aged 5 absent 236 days
* I would prefer to oppose him with that absence
* PLAY MASTER is out aged 8 absent 482 days
* MAGIC KAHYASI is out aged 6 absent 462 days
* MAGIC KAHYASI has been very well backed
* He is a French horse and impossible to rate
* Class connections but no British form at all
* I will take him on but he is basically unratable
* BARODINE wouldnt be my first choice
* He has to step up from 12f and hasnt done this trip yet
* MULAAZEM has been hurdling for a while
* He has plenty to prove and doesnt look very obvious
* SHAYERA has a weak profile as a filly from a 12f maiden
* None of the 166 winners had a profile like that
* The odd winner has come from 11f or shorter
* CARLTON SCROOP does that but he isnt for me
* He must be a big candidate to bounce today
* He has ran once since Febuary after could regress today
* SIR LIAM has a fair chance but there is a stamina doubt
* As he comes from a 12f race and is exposed I'm leaving him
* VANQUISHER is fit running well and well handicapped
* VANQUISHER would have to make the shortlist
* So to would SPUME who I saved on last time
* He was 4th at Southwell from the worst draw that day
* He is certainly not out of this back on Polytrack
* SPUME has no faired well with stall 14 though
* In 7 years we've had 66 handicaps with 10 + runners
* Stall 14 has a 1-48 record in these races
* It would worry me enough to look elsewhere
* Therefore VANQUISHER looks the obvious selection
* You would have to respect and fear Magic Kahyasi as well

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LINGFIELD 3.55

5/1 Davids Mark, 6/1 Marvin Gardens, 7/1 Nawaaff,
8/1 Afton View, 8/1 Green Velvet, 10/1 Faintly Hopeful,
10/1 Inka Dancer, 12/1 Donard Lodge, 12/1 Forever Changes,
14/1 Metropolitan Chief, 33/1 Nimbelle.

This 6f sprint Handicap is another open race. I'd be against GREEN VELVET as a filly up in trip. INKA DANCER ,
NAWAAFF, NIMBELLE , FOREVER CHANGES are out with absences. METROPOLITAN CHIEF is out with 1 run since June. DONARD LODGE is out as a 4yo filly coming from a heavy defeat. I cant find a winner with a similar profile to FAINTLY HOPEFUL. Dont have problems with these 3-

DAVIDS MARK - MARVIN GARDENS -AFTON VIEW

I Feel like staying loyal to AFTON VIEW who did have some
excuses 4 days ago when I made him a selection at 10/1. He
didnt get the best of starts or runs and this is winnable

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W O L V E R H A M P T O N


WOLVERHAMPTON 6.50

5/4 Harry Up, 15/8 Blue Tomato, 4/1 Albero Di Giuda, 12/1
Bluebok, 16/1 Honest Value, 25/1 Bahamarama, 66/1 Briery Blaze.

I would have felt obliged to tip HARRY UP in this 5f
claimer as he is the only fancied runner that doesnt have
a long absence but I'm not doing that and leaving the race
alone. Whilst BLUE TOMATO is an 8 year old and is
absent 87 days I have found 3 horses his aged that won
similar races after a long break and that means I can not
make him weak statistically much as I would like to. I
didnt want ALBERO DI GIUDA as a filly absent a long
time but she is Italian and clearly has ability and its also interesting that of all the horses that were backed on Betfair yesterday afternoon on the sand the very first
bet was struck on this horse so I didnt want to commit
to HARRY UP as although he has the best profile in the
race and would have been my selection the angles tell me
Blue Tomato isnt dead.

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WOLVERHAMPTON 7.50

11/4 Northern Empire, 5/1 Musical Script, 6/1 Silvanus,
6/1 Yungaburra, 8/1 Methaaly, 9/1 Dressed To Dance,
10/1 Carcinetto, 10/1 Soopacal, 14/1 Sir Nod.

I wasnt bothered about this sprint handicap where I ran
some average angles and came up with an unsafe shortlist
that had 3 on it and I felt MUSICAL SCRIPT came out
best with Soopacal and Dressed To Dance also having
decent profiles. Looks open and didnt trust the race

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WOLVERHAMPTON 8.20

7/2 Under Warranty, 4/1 Perlachy, 8/1 Flamestone, 8/1
Welcome Approach, 10/1 Decider, 10/1 Elkhorn, 10/1
Wiltshire, 14/1 Chookie Heiton, 14/1 Great Knight, 16/1
Bateleur, 16/1 Hunt The Bottle, 16/1 Royal Acclamation,
25/1 Eternal Optimist.

This is a handicap just short of 6f and I'd have rejected a few of these. Several of these looked unfit or underraced or not guaranteed to be at their fittest and these include Bateleur - Eternal Optimist - Welcome Approach - Royal Acclamation -Great Knight -Chookie Heiton - Elkhorn. I wouldnt want Decider as the only horse that comes from a 5f race. Wiltshire may have been shortlisted but would not have been a selection. I dont see Hunt The Bottle as ready to win yet. UNDER WARRANTY ran below form last time and I think that was understandable. He needs to bounce back. Thats possible and I respect him without fancying him. PERLACHY is favourite and has a decent chance. Personally I would have prefered not to have the 31 day absence and I wouldnt be convinced at all that Stall one will help him much as the last winner here over Course and Distance came from that stall. Maybe FLAMESTONE the recent 0-45 Classified stakes winner could win again. I had a look at all horses that won 0-45 Classified races and then came into these races. Only three horses tried and they finished W W 4 so FLAMESTONE should not be taken lightly and I'd give him a chance.

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WOLVERHAMPTON 8.50

7/2 Agilete, 11/2 Bailieborough, Ardent Prince, 7/1
Ridgeway Jazz, 9/1 Moyoko, 14/1 Bold Indian,
16/1 Altos Reales, 16/1 Prince Charlemagne, 20/1
Rampant Ronnie, 20/1 Snow Dancer,
25/1 Flagstone, 33/1 Weetfromthechaff.

This is a 0-55 handicap over an extended 9f. I would have
made Rough Sketch a negative but he is now a non runner
and this now depends on whether AGILETE can repeat his
last run. If he does he should win but there is no guaranteee he wont bounce or regress and he's a horse hard to judge. There are several with good solid profiles that could easily eclipse them both. You might have expected me to oppose ARDENT PRINCE as he comes from 7f and goes up to an extended 9f but I wont do that. I looked at every low grade handicap over 9f and 10f. Horses like ARDENT PRINCE are interesting. I looked at horses that had placed within the last couple of weeks in 7f handicaps as he has done. Those that had won a race before as he has done produced a very strong record. They finished W W W W 2 3 W W in a 6-8 record which is excellent and that sways me to select him in this race. ARDENT PRINCE is my selection with Jamie Spencer on board.

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