Thursday January 1st 2009

No Account Bet

No Selections Today

Certain days of the year are important for a strong message and New years day is one I like to get right and pull the stops out for but that's not been possible.
Aside from freezing conditions and some outside hospital commitments the cat and mouse chase about inspections and whether meetings and on or off makes doing a detailed accurate message impossible. You can get round it with just one inspection planned but when you have 4 inspections today its bedlam. Therefore todays message is a long way from the standard I would want to offer up on a
bank holiday. I dont see any chance today to get back to stronger bets and we are just in a short period where things are conspiring against us and stronger bets
are just not there at the moment. Its a Blank Day today which is a shame but I dont want to give bets that are under researched and too speculative.

In the next day or so I will give a static message time so all messages are sent at the same time so any confusion is cleared up. I think it's best to leave that until next week as there are inspections to come and a general unclear sense of where the racing will take place at the moment. Todays message has a couple of really interesting Handicap Hurdles and before that a general Southwell preview with half a dozen races there. I didnt come close to a strong bet so a No Bet Day.


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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G



S O U T H W E L L


The problem with Southwell today apart from the harrowing and the weather of course is the small fields which make any strong trends unsafe and it wont be an easy card to get to the bottom of today. Most races look open to doubt.


SOUTHWELL 12.25

11/10 Red Tarn, 9/4 Orpenella, 10/1 A Valley Away, 10/1 Jordi Roper, 12/1 Fifth Zak, 20/1 Martingrange Lass, 20/1 Tuxsumdoin, 33/1 Grange Corner.

In this 11f maiden race for horses aged 4-5-6 you have 2 frustrating types trying to win their first race. RED TARN and ORPENELLA are average but its an awful race and because ORPENELLA is a filly that goes from 8f to 11f you would have to argue that RED TARN has by far the safer profile. I looked at all maidens for all aged horses over 10f or more. Fillies that came from a Mile or shorter as she does did win races but when they had 5 or more runs they had a poor 1-81 and that suggests ORPENELLA may be too exposed to step up 3f in distance. Those that tried it from handicaps had a 0-30 record and those like ORPENELLA that ran within the last month had a 0-88 record. Statistically RED TARN is significantly safer. I didnt see anything I liked in either A VALLEY AWAY - JORDI ROPER
or FIFTH ZAK but watch the market with those. One could easily have some angle I have missed. That said I would have to argue RED TARN was the one to be on in this race. I think RED TARN should finally get off the mark

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SOUTHWELL 1.00

3/1 How's She Cuttin', 4/1 Harry Up, 4/1 Matsunosuke, 5/1 Rebel Duke, 8/1 Pawan, 10/1 Irish Pearl, 16/1 Sands Crooner, 20/1 Tartatartufata, 25/1 Excusez Moi.

The 1pm race at Southwell is a classy handicap for 0-104 rated horses. There were a few of these I couldnt have. I didnt want EXCUSEZ MOI as a 7 year old absent
96 days. Thats a long absence for a classy 5f handicap. IRISH PEARL needs to be forgiven his last run coming here on the back of a miserable last performance and I dont see why he should be and I want to ignore him. PAWAN has a bad 0-23 record in this class and is only 1-50 above Class 4 company and having been unplaced in a much easier race last time I suspect he may find something too good for him. I feel the same about SANDS CROONER whose never won above class 4 before and who has never won from his current rating. TARTATARTUFATA won this race last year at
25/1 off a higher mark and she is interesting because of that but she was flattered last year by some way and she hasnt done much since to suggest she can win this again. A
small chance but unsafe for me. REBEL DUKE has some sort of chance but he has ran just twice since May - he has also never won from his current rating and all his wins
have come in Class 5 and Class 6 races. The best REBEL DUKE has done is win a 0-76 handicap so this 0-104 is a lot better than he is used to. There are clearly 3 big runners in this race - HOW'S SHE CUTTIN - MATSUNOSUKE - HARRY UP

HOW'S SHE CUTTIN has been very well backed from 100/30 into 9/4 and looks like she could be on the upgrade. She has doubts though as a female horse absent 40 days
and with the worst draw. That said she loves it here and her two rivals can not say that. MATSUNOSUKE is a big runner if he can show his form over Southwell's 5f trip. His two runs over this Course and Distance were encouraging. HARRY UP also comes here with not much 5f Southwell form although he was 4th in this race two years ago. I think he wants a faster surface. I FEEL MATSUNOSUKE is better value than taking a much shorter price about HOW'S SHE CUTTIN with the worst draw and an absence. So I feel the selection should be MATSUNOSUKE in the hope he is fitter than the favourite

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SOUTHWELL 1.35

7/2 Dart, 7/2 Victory Quest, 5/1 Swords, 6/1 My Friend Fritz, 10/1 Amron Hill, 10/1 Hill Billy Rock, 10/1 Mikado, 10/1 Red Wine, 14/1 They All Laughed.

This is one of those tricky 14f handicaps and I didnt much like the questions the race asked. I would be wary about MY FRIEND FRITZ with just one race since May 2008 and HILL BILLY ROCK has the same thing to overcome and on deep winter ground here I would want more runs. MIKADO doesnt look either fit or ready to win. It is very hard to forgive AMRON HILL a 30 length defeat just 6 days ago. THEY ALL LAUGHED has not run in a long time and wouldnt interest me. RED WINE isnt for me as a 10 year old
stepping up in distance. I dont have any problems with the other 3 runners and any may win. Small preference at the weights for DART rather than Victory Quest.

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SOUTHWELL 2.40

8/13 Miss Xu Xia, 5/2 Cause For Applause, 10/1 Talulah Bells,16/1 Captain Bradz, 25/1 Betsy The Best

This is a desperate seller for 3 year olds over a Mile who after all have only been 3 year olds for just a few hours anyway. The class of these horses are awful and that makes me feel any could win. I couldnt have TALULAH BELLS as she comes from a 5f race to a 8f race. She also has a long absence and may not stay. I dont like BETSY THE BEST as a filly with just 2 career starts. She comes here after a heavy defeat in a maiden and this isnt the place for inexperienced fillies. My problem with MISS XU XIA is that she is a filly with a penalty. She has at least won a race but it was a bad one and several didnt run their race. Fillies that ran in similar races when losing by 10 + lengths last time out won a couple but none had more than nine career starts (0-25) as MISS XU XIA does and none carried the penalty either and if there is anything here with a bit of ability she could struggle. CAPTAIN BRADZ has to come from a long absence of 199 days but hasnt shown anything yet that makes me think he will win this. CAUSE FOR APPLAUSE needs to improve but could do that. Given the odds on price about MISS XU XIA and the doubts she has it may be better to look at CAUSE FOR APPLAUSE as an alternative and he is the selection.

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SOUTHWELL 3.15

11/8 Mozayada, 4/1 Majuro, 9/2 Spinning, 6/1 Councellor, 8/1 Just Bond, 11/1 Lady Jane Digby, 25/1 New Beginning.

This is a 0-89 handicap over a mile. We've had 8 renewals of this race and all 8 winners were Male horses aged 5 or more that had ran well on their latest starts. We have had 55 similar races at this time of year elsewhere. Male horses won 54 of the 55 races and that looks significant. I couldnt consider a 4yo filly in this race like LADY JANE DIGBY who after all was a 3 year old yesterday. MOZAYADA is the other filly and she is improving but this will be a lot harder than her 4 previous wins. She has won 4 from marks of 45 - 51 - 66 - 72 but they were in a lower class of race and she now has a mark of 77 and much better rivals. You couldnt rule her out but up in class and a short price she would not be for me. NEW BEGINNING looks to have an unsatisfactory profile. JUST BOND doesnt have any Southwell form and thats his doubt. I respect and shortlist MAJURO but he has a 40 day absence and a step up in trip. SPINNING doesnt look that well treated for a horse that has better form at Wolverhampton. COUNCELLOR is therefore given the vote and is my pick but as there are 7 runners I see nothing appealing about the race at all.

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SOUTHWELL 3.45

5/1 Thornaby Green, 6/1 Louisiade, 6/1 Very Well Red, 7/1 Mrs Bun, 10/1 Betteras Bertie, 10/1 Capped For Victory, 10/1 Dark Planet, 10/1 Only A Grand, 12/1 Afton View, 14/1 Komreyev Star, 16/1 Anduril, 16/1 General Tufto, 16/1 Penel, 33/1 Government.

This is a low grade handicap over a Mile. We have had 190 similar races at this time of year and 72 of those were at Southwell. There are a few I have to oppose which will leave a shortlist. KMOREYEV STAR is out as a 7year old with a 93 day break. PENEL is out as he is the same age and absent 141 days. I could not have ONLY A GRAND as a filly with a long absence. DARK PLANET looks underraced this year and I dont like them coming from hurdles and thats why I am overlooking ANDURIL as well. AFTON VIEW has to step up from a 6f race to an 8f race which is very hard. In the 190 races exposed horses doing that were 0-38 and none had a recent run as he does. VERY WELL RED is a female stepping up in trip. One or two managed to win when doing that but she comes here after a huge defeat and all 47 that lost by 10 or more lengths were beaten and I dont see I can forgive her that last run. CAPPED FOR VICTORY has ran just once since May and thats not enough. GOVERNMENT is a poor horse. I did not want to risk BETTERAS BERTIE as there are stamina and draw issues and I just feel this may not be her day. I think 4 horses stand out and should provide the winner.

Mrs Bun - Thornaby Green -Louisiade -General Tufto

My selection would be THORNABY GREEN each way with a saver
on General Tufto around 14/1

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N A T I O N A L H U N T


CHELTENHAM 12.30

4/1 Picaroon, 9/2 Havenstone, 7/1 You're The Top, 8/1 Halfway Cut, 10/1 Call Me A Legend, 10/1 Ring Bo Ree, 10/1 Top Ram, 12/1 Smarties Party, 16/1 Flow Gently Along, 16/1 Max Bygraves, 20/1 Alfloramoor, 25/1 Awesome George, 33/1 Court Princess, 33/1 Tenor De Balme, 40/1 Project Gallery, 50/1 Santarctique.

* This is a novice handicap hurdle over 17f
* There has been 14 renewals of this race
* Its possibly not as competetive as it looks
* 7 of the 16 runners are 33/1 and over and hard to fancy
* I would take out and ignore the following outsiders
* Court Princess -Tenor De Balme - Project Gallery- Santarctique.
* Alfloramoor -Max Bygraves - Flow Gently Along -Awesome George
* You want a horse with under 13 career starts
* HAVENSTONE and TOP RAM look on the exposed side to me
* Every past winner had at least two runs that season
* Thats something HALFWAY CUT has to overcome and I oppose him
* I looked at every Novice Handicap Hurdle in January between 2m and 2m 4f
* There were 76 of these races over this half a mile spread
* Fillies that came from Novice Races struggled in the 76 races
* They had a miserable 1-111 record in 76 races
* CALL ME A LEGEND - SMARTIES PARTY fail that
* There are 3 horses I could select in this race
* Picaroon - You're The Top - Ring Bo Ree
* If you take the 14 renewals of this race Novice Hurdlers are best
* Horses from Handicap Hurdles did not score as well
* Those of them that ran within 7 weeks had a 1-68 record in 14 renewals
* All 32 like PICAROON that cane from non novice handicaps lost
* RING BO REE also comes from handicaps within 7 weeks
* For me the selection has to be YOU'RE THE TOP
* YOU'RE THE TOP comes from a Novice Hurdle and has 3 runs
* 4 of the 14 previous winners had 3 runs and came from novices
* 3 of these came from the top of the weights as well
* YOU'RE THE TOP looks the most interesting runner in this race

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EXETER 1.20

5/1 Alasao, 11/2 Vodka Brook, 6/1 Chesapeake, 13/2 Alfatrix, 13/2 Dalyan Dancer, 9/1 Carmond, 9/1 Master Darcy, 10/1 How's Business, 12/1 Cortesia, 14/1 Midnight Haze.

* This is a 19f handicap Hurdle for 0-113 rated horses
* January has seen 86 handicap hurdles around this trip
* In these 86 races horses with under 4 runs were 1-74
* Thats a very poor record for inexperienced horses
* CHESAPEAKE - ALFATRIX both fail that and look inexperienced
* DALYAN DANCER also fails that and is rejected
* I looked in the 86 races for horses from Novice Hurdles
* Only 7 of the 86 runners came from Novice Hurdles
* None of these had under 5 career starts (0-40)
* None were aged just 4 or 5 (0-41)
* CARMOND fails that and is rejected
* MIDNIGHT HAZE also fails that
* I couldnt have CORTESIA as a mare on her last run
* The above horses are all rejected as negatives
* I didnt want HOWS BUSINESS as a filly in this race
* In 86 races no filly won when as young as her
* With an absence and topweight she isnt for me
* Going back to horses from Novice Hurdles
* None of these had just 1 or 2 runs that season
* MASTER DARCY has that to overcome
* I think one of these will win
* VODKA BROOK - ALASAO
* VODKA BROOK is the selection and ALASAO is the saver

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