No Account Bet

One Selection Today

Lingfield 3.55

LAUSTRA BAD

Few days to go before Cheltenham. Today is about two horses
I am betting. I think the Friday and Saturday messages will be more detailed and there is a lot more choice over the weekend. Hoping to get a Sunday message in as well if thats possible.


Lingfield 3.55 - LAUSTRA BAD
Wincanton 2.30 - RUBY CROWN

I am betting both these today. For me to consider Ruby Crown as a strong bet I would have really wanted to have a good reason to oppose the favourite Sashenka and I don't. She has a great chance so the race may just be a bit too warm to consider her as anything more than a reasonably good bet. Statistically I feel she should win but I am just going to have a bit of 6/1 on Ruby Crown and she goes down as no more than a personal bet

LAUSTRA BAD is a bit more complicated and thought long
and hard about whether to make him an account bet. Half of
me feels I have opened the race up to show just how he should outclass this field and feel he is worth a very strong bet. The other half is worried about a few things. Not sure that there is not something I have missed. I'm cautious that he might run next week at Cheltenham and it may or may not be in the stable's best interests to win today. I think there are just a few niggling things I cant resolve. Therefore Given that he is 5/2 and 9/4 I wont make him a full bet. He is easily good enough to be a selection though. I am going to bet him this morning around 5/2. My biggest danger is Victorias Groom if anyone wants a saver. Personally I will be having one.

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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G


There was no message yesterday and a couple of quiet days
but every minute saved this week pays dividends next week
at Cheltenham and I am ready now for the festival. Planning
at least one account bet. The Messages will take their own
shape each day. Just trying to give some insight in what to
expect. Every race of the Festival will be previewed. I also want to try and do some Quadpots time allowing. Handicaps interest me most and it may be the Handicap chases that are going to provide the best results. I love the 4 miler as well and there are a few other races we will be playing in. The banker of the week for me is Kasbah Bliss in the Stayers Hurdle but I dont plan any bets on short priced horses. I dont intend to ignore the other meetings and if something runs elsewhere with something worth saying about it I will cover it.


Just two previews today. CARLISLE has chases only today
and they never offer much on their chase only cards. In the Beginners Chase at 2.40 Its asking a lot of TARTAN SNOW to win this. Officially he is superior to these but he has had 19 runs and he has to come from a 2m hurdle race to a 2m 5f chase. He has never run in chases before. He has fallen twice over hurdles. He is not a young or unexposed horse and I felt he was vulnerable. I would go with CHECKERBOARD who looks a much natural chaser and is trained by a far better stable. Placed in a 3m + chase last time that makes him considerably stronger statistically and his stable are now in better form. I'd
go with him. I didnt see anything else worthwhile at Carlisle

WOLVERHAMPTON has a poor card with tiny fields and
I dont see any strong angles that will lead to a decent priced horse and the card is best left alone.

The big oppurtunity at LINGFIELD comes in the 3.55pm and
thats previewed later. There wasnt much else to say on the card. I thought the Beginners chase was between KILDONNAN and RUSSIAN AROUND. I think the Pipe horse Gentle Ranger is
underpriced and hasnt run well enough recently. Temoin comes with plenty of risk. I think KILDONNAN is the probably one and ought to win. RUSSIAN AROUND has had a wind op and could win this easily but he wants better ground and his main aim could be to get round safely and get some coinfidence. He is the only horse that scares me but KILDONNAN is preferred.

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WINCANTON 2.30

BATHWICK TYRES YEOVIL HANDICAP HURDLE
(CLASS 4) (4yo+,0-100) 2m6f

Evs Sashenka, 15/2 Burgess Hill, 15/2 Ruby Crown,
8/1 Thursday's Knight, 12/1 Anchor Bridge, 16/1 Inn
For The Dancer, 16/1 Saphire Night, 20/1 Free To Air,
20/1 Worbarrow Bay, 25/1 Daarth.

* This is a 2m 6f handicap hurdle
* Wincanton has had 14 renewals of this race
* There has been 155 similar races elsewhere
* Horses that had under 5 runs in this race were 0-25
* DAARTH has too much to do with 3 runs
* He comes from a 2m juvenile novice hurdle
* He shouldnt have the weapons to win this race
* WORBARROW BAY also has under 5 runs
* She is a mare from a maiden hurdle
* In 155 other races no mare won from a maiden hurdle
* No mare was as inexperienced as her either
* WORBARROW BAY looks outclassed here
* SAPHIRE NIGHT has a chance but has 1 problem
* She is a Mare and has had just 1 run this season
* She could be at a fitness disadvantage here
* I looked at every handicap hurdle run in March
* Thats any distance and in Class 3-4-5-6 races
* There were 857 of these races in March
* Mares with 1 run that season won just 5 races
* Those unplaced in that race were just 1-89
* I think thats a lot to overcome for a mare
* I would oppose SAPHIRE NIGHT
* ANCHOR BRIDGE comes from a handicap chase
* No past winner of this race did that
* In 155 similar races only 6 horses won from chases
* None had under 13 runs and ANCHOR BRIDGE has 7
* None had under 3 runs that season like him
* None came from 2m 4f or less as he does
* None had never won a race before like him
* ANCHOR BRIDGE looks weak statistically
* FREE TO AIR makes no appeal
* He was beaten miles just 6 days ago in a Novice
* Surely he has too little time to overcome that
* INN FOR THE DANCER looks unsafe on many levels
* He recently broke a blood vessel
* He is a long way from certain to stay this far
* He has never won over hurdles either
* He is probably best overlooked in this race
* THURSDAY´S KNIGHT comes from a novice handicap
* In 155 races only 14 horses did that and won
* They were mainly all very lightly raced
* Those with 9 or more runs had a 1-52 record
* None were beaten as far as he was last time
* He won off "86" in a weak race in November
* Since then he has clobbered 24lbs by the handicapper
* He looks badly treated out of novice company

SHORTLIST

SASHENKA
BURGESS HILL
RUBY CROWN

* SAHESNKA has an excellent chance
* She has just won a better race easily
* She escapes a penalty and looks well treated
* My only worries are a short price and 7lbs claimer
* SASHENKA has to go close in this
* BURGESS HILL has a solid chance
* Not completely convinced he will get home on heavy ground
* I would also be worried about his 11st 11lbs
* There has been 14 renewals of this race
* Horses with 11st 10lbs or more were 1-31
* Only 2 of the 143 winners had 11st 5lbs or more
* None of those had an absence of over 2 weeks
* BURGESS HILL could just be vulnerable
* The combination of weight - stamina- absence may hurt

RUBY CROWN

* I felt this mare had a solid chance.
* Initially I felt a mare coming from a 2m race may struggle
* Thats not the case at all
* In 155 races Mares that placed over 2m last time excelled
* They had a 5-8 record a strike rate of 62%
* When absent over a month as she is they were 4-4
* She looks unexposed and progressive
* Statistically she must have a great chance
* Only 4 horse had her profile and all 4 won

SELECTION - RUBY CROWN E/W


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LINGFIELD 3.55

BET FA CUP FOOTBALL - BETDAQ HANDICAP HURDLE
(CLASS 3) (4yo+,0-125) 2m3f110y

2/1 Laustra Bad, 5/1 Victorias Groom, 15/2 Princess Flame,
15/2 Quentin D'Ex, 15/2 Serhaaphim, 8/1 Daryal, 14/1
Mcgruders Cross, 25/1 Federstar.

* This is a Handicap Hurdle for 0-123 rated horses
* We have had 120 similar races at this time of year

My theory here is LAUSTRA BAD should be able to
outclass his rivals here. Well handicapped and down in
class I feel you can chip away at his rivals and exposed
a field that he should really be able to deal with today.

There has been 552 handicap hurdles in March between
2 miles and 2m 5f and they show exposed horses do not
defy absences. Only 12 of the 552 won with an absence
of 7 months or more and the vast majority were lightly
raced Those with 13 or more career starts were 1-103
and thats why DARYAL shouldnt be able to defy a 341
day break. MCGRUDERS CROSS doesnt appeal either.
He is an 11 year old with a worrying 48 day absence.

* There has been 754 handicap hurdles in March
* Thats 754 races at every distance in Class 2-3-4-5
* Horses aged 11 or more absent over a month struggled
* They won just 4 of the 754 races
* When exposed like him they had a 1-93 record
* None were beaten as far as he was last time
* Those that were not 1-2-3 last time out were 0-112
* None won at 2m 4f or shorter (0-56)
* Its clear that a horse aged 11 needs a good recent run

The way I see this - is that if MCGRUDERS CROSS and
DARYAL can both be opposed then LAUSTRA BAD has
only got a 0-117 class field to beat. More about him later
but first a few more negatives. FEDERSTAR looks too
hard to fancy. With SERHAAPHIM I am uncomfortable
with a Mare that has been beaten so badly recently and I'm
not happy with the ground either and think there are far
more likely winners and I wouldnt want to bet her in this race.

I think PRINCESS FLAME has a chance but she's a mare
thats only got 1 piece of form you can fancy her on and
she hasnt won from this mark before and its hard to know
whether she is in good enough form to take this.

QUENTIN D´EX looks a nice prospect but comes from a
Chase and has only had 6 runs 5 of which were in France.
He pulled up over fences when last seen in November. If
you look at the 120 handicap hurdles like this and look at
horses coming from fences its interesting. None won when
having under 9 career starts as he does. None of them won
with under 2 runs that season as he has. None won aged 5
or 6 either and none were maidens. I have looked at every
handicap hurdle at this time of year and only one 5 year
old switched from fences and he was considerably more
experienced anyway. Besides that if you look at the 120
handicap hurdles run at this distance in March. You find
that 28 horses aged 5 won but none of these had under 3
runs that season as QUENTIN D´EX does and that is a
strong enough reason to oppose him anyway and he is
simply weak statistically for me.

VICTORIAS GROOM has a nice statistical profile and
his type win several of these races. My only worry with
him is that he has not proven much and takes on a horse
in LAUSTRA BAD that has a bit more class.

LAUSTRA BAD ran in the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham
Festival last year at off a rating of 133. You had to have
been rated at least 129 to have got in that race last year
and he is entered again this year. He has to win today to
get in the race but NONE Of his opponents today have a
hope of even running in the race. It shouldn't be forgotten
LAUSTRA BAD is a horse who also placed at the 2007
Cheltenham as well off 128 and thats not done by a horse
that doesnt have class. His rating has slipped from a high
of 135 to just 123 and that makes him well handicapped.
When you consider his back class - and consider that he's
only got a 0-123 class field to beat - and I think as thats only really a 0-117 to beat there must be a great chance he outclasses these. He clearly has not been fit this year until recently but its very interesting he was well backed last time out and ran a strong second to Oscardeal. That was a 0-138 Class 2 Handicap Hurdle a considerably better race than the one he faces todays. He goes from recieving weight from better horses to conceeding weight to inferior ones most of who have statistical problems. I dont worry at all he was put up 5lbs for coming second last time as he was already well
handicapped. I feek in a race like this LAUSTRA BAD could
outclass these and go to Cheltenham with a good chance in a far better handicap. LAUSTRA BAD is a confident bet.

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