No Account Bet

1 Selection

Hexham 4.50

SILLY WUPPLE 10/1 Each Way

DARINIAS BOY 8/1 Saver

Going with 1 selection. Its a National Hunt day as there is no flat racing and I have tried to go with a bit of value. SILLY WUPPLE might just be coming back to form and if he can he might be better class than these and a return to fast ground should suit him. I think he is worth an
each way bet around 10/1 or more. There are a few negative profiles against him. I want to bet Darinia's Boy as a saver around 8/1 as he has a strong profile. It's a long distance chase and I dont know about you but I will be glad to see the back of these for a while. The selection is no certainty but It appeals as a good value bet rather than going with a shorter priced option of which there are many.

I thought todays cards were much better than the offerings yesterday. Plenty of short priced options. I liked Cast Cada (3.40) and felt he'd win as may Saddlers Star (4.10). It's tempting to have an Each Way double with two horses
who have great winning chances and shouldn't really be unplaced. Fortysecondstreet (2.20) and Springfield Raki (2.30) look a sensible each way double for those that like that bet. That would be the safety first option but I do
try and keep away from these bets now and whilst its odds on a loser I do think it is a race with some value in it and Silly Wupple may just be capable of outclassing these.


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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G


Pleased the Grand National is over with the circus it brings. Dissapointed I did not get the race right. I am pleased overall the winner Mon Mone was solid statistically. I didnt select him as I allowed myself to be put off by 1 circumstantial and unusual trend and talked myself out of him on his run in last years race. I have elaborated more on the message board about him. I put it down to mistakes in interpreting stats rather than the trends themselves being wrong and thats always better than the alternative. Happy the Carnival is over now and I wont beat myself up for not picking a 100-1 winner. What I need to do now is slow down and navigate our way through the Flat Season and we can start to acclimatise now the
National Hunt slows down. Instead of finding excuses why I am not writing up issues in everyrace each day I am going to pick and choose a handful of the right races on the Flat each day and get back to betting account bets. That said its only National Hunt today. I knew I was a bit light on options yesterday. I Never fool myself that I am stronger about a race than I am and as a Saturday Message I knew it was poor and thats why I didnt have any further bets. Think it was the right thing to do to go with a message on Sunday as it looks better than yesterday.


Today just a couple of races I want to mention atMarket rasen very briefly. I want to touch on 4 Southwell races after that and Hexham then has 3 previews after that on an interesting day.



M A R K E T R A S E N


Tough card at Market Rasen. Probably the toughest of the day. SPRINGFIELD RAKI looked the safest of 3 options in the Novice Hurdle at 2.30pm. Not a race you can safely call with a fancied unraced horse but he is good enough to win a race like this and I think he looks an each way double horse. I would suggest that each way double with FORTYSECONDSTREET in the 2.20 at Hexham. That looks quite a good one.

In the 5pm at Market Rasen a Mares Bumper I feel that MRS TRELLIS might be the one to win first time out. Her trainer Paul Webber has a very good record in Mares Bumpers. Her two main rivals are beatable. SHILPA has ran twice and hardly set an impossible standard and horses with 2 runs and no wins when well beaten last time had a poor record in all similar races and none came from 2 miles. I didnt like her profile much. SHAYAZA has one run
and in 7 renewals horses with 1 run are 0-33 so far so this has been a race dominated by debutants or twice raced horses achieving more than SHILPA. This could well leave the way open for Webbers 4 year old debutant MRS TRELLIS and she looks just the type that could win this first time out.



S O U T H W E L L


Dont see much at Southwell today. The first race is
too open but I certainly wouldnt want to bet a horse
like HUGO WOLF in a Handicap Chase when he has had just 1 run over fences and Fell in that run and he is only favourite as Alan King trains him. I would see ONE OF THE BOYS as a better option. He has now had 4 runs after a long break and is still a very unexposed horse and with his last run being his best this year he could win this race and would appeal more than Hugo Wolf does.

You would expect TURKISH SURPRISE to win the Novice Chase at 3.10 but it will depend on how he comes out of his Cheltenham run. I dont see any reason why he shouldnt be fine and win this and we know horses in Novice Chases at this time of year with Graded Form usually win.

The 3.40 looks a match between CAST CADA and JOKERS LEGACY. I think it's very tight between them but I would have to prefer CAST CADA. The handicapper rates him 5lbs higher yet he also gets weight and is actually quite well ahead on ratings but he is also far less exposed. I dont know how the betting will go later but I would be making him a shade of odds on and I think he will win.

I couldnt oppose SADLER´S STAR in the Maiden Hurdle at 4.10pm. His form just looks too strong and with Bumper rivals and well beaten horses I just felt he ought to win all things being equal.

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H E X H A M


HEXHAM 2.20

SIS NOVICES' HURDLE (DIV I) (CLASS 4) (4yo+) 2m110y

7/4 Risk, 15/8 Fortysecond Street, 5/1 Panthera Leo,
12/1 Turtle Spirit, 16/1 Against The Wind, 16/1 Stopped
Out, 20/1 The Kealshore Kid, 25/1 Miss Understanding,
25/1 Not Talking, 50/1 Dance Sauvage, 66/1 Crystal Runner.

This is a 2m Novice Hurdle. Howard Johnson run FORTYSECONDSTREET and PANTHERA LEO in an attempt to beat last time faller RISK who was about to win easily before he fell last time out. I would oppose PANTHERA LEO as he comes from a Handicap and has had just 1 run this season.

* March and April have 504 Novice Hurdles
* Thats 504 Novices over 16f and 17f
* No Handicapper won with 1 run that year

The Handicappers that win these races are much better with 3 or more runs and I suspect he will be undercooked and not likely to beat the other two runners. I couldnt bet eitherTURTLE SPIRIT or AGAINST THE WIND as they come from NHF Bumpers and these types have awful records.

Statistically FORTYSECONDSTREET is best as you'd assume as he was won a race and doesnt come from a fall but RISK was quite impressive last time or would have been before falling and how he recovers from that is the main issue. I
think its an each way double race and I think FORTYSECONDSTREET comes out best and is the best horse for that bet.

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HEXHAM 4.20

KIT PATTERSON MEMORIAL "NATIONAL HUNT"
NOVICES' HURDLE (CLASS 4) (5yo+) 3m

11/4 Double Hit, 3/1 Elzahann, 3/1 Sirkeel, 6/1 Will If I Want, 10/1 Dark Destiny, 14/1 Bobtante, 20/1 The Brig At Ayr,50/1 Patchoulie Conti, 100/1 Almond Court, 100/1 Flag Hill, 100/1 Mick Flavin, 100/1 Mr Minster Moss, 100/1 Newgate Suds.

Interesting 3m Novice Hurdle. I have problems with most of these. SIRKEEL keeps going up in distance and I keep opposing him as I dont see him as a true stayer. I opposed him last time over an extended 22f and now he runs over 3m. He is by Dolphin Street and the sire has a bad record over long distances like this and there is a good chance he wont stay today. Decent opposition is thin on the ground. DOUBLE HIT is one option after running in a quality Novice Handicap last time but She wants soft ground and is unlikely to get that. I dont fancy WILL IF I WANT aged 8 with 1 run in 17 months and he wants more runs for me before I could bet him in this. THE BRIG AT AYR is unraced and probably best to oppose him. BOBTANTE hasnt
shown nearly enough to consider yet in handicaps.
ELZAHANN has a questionable profile. We have had 124 similar races and Mares that came from Novice races for Fillies and Mares were just 1-66 and she is a Mare that has to come from 2m 4f and none of the 124 managed that. All 32 lost and its a not easy for a female horse that has been beaten by some lowly rated horses. DARK DESTINY is interesting in that he has ran just twice and has an absence. I looked at all 125 races and horses that had ran just twice and came here after a heavy defeat and when
absent over 4 months. The record was 2-11 and there has been similar winners. He wasnt cheap. His yard are always to be respected and if there is money for DARK DESTINY I would be very interested.

SELECTION

DARK DESTINY if 10/1 or shorter would be a more
confident bet than if he drifted out and was a bigger
price. The sort of bet you would prefer to see some
market confidence with. I think SIRKEEL will place
and go close but stamina may run out. I am staying
with the "Least worrying" profile though and that
is DARK DESTINY but we are in the dark about just
how fancied he is or how ready he is.


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HEXHAM 4.50

MOST SCENIC RACECOURSE HANDICAP CHASE
(CLASS 4) (5yo+,0-115) 3m1f

7/2 Overlady, 4/1 Player, 8/1 Darina's Boy, 8/1 Korelo,
9/1 Catch The Perk, 10/1 Saddler's Way, 12/1 Carry Duff,
12/1 Crackadee, 14/1 Silly Wupple, 14/1 Stoneriggs Merc,
16/1 South Bronx, 20/1 Emerald Destiny.

* 3m 1f Handicap Chase for 0-115 rated horses
* There has been 209 similar races in April
* This covers 209 races between 2m 7f and 3m 2f
* OVERLADY has a weak profile for me
* She is a Mare from 4 miles and has just 5 runs
* In all 209 races any horse from 4m + were 0-36
* Mares like her with under 9 runs were 0-23
* There must be a doubt about an inexperienced mare
* Especially coming down almost a mile after 5 runs
* I dont want to bet PLAYER in this race
* He is a 6 year old stepping up from under 2m 4f
* No 6 year old won doing that in 209 races
* He also took a Fall last time out at the first
* There has to be a Stamina Doubt about him
* I think he is beatable up in distance today
* SADDLER'S WAY is also a 6 year old with 2 runs
* I looked at horses from Novice Chases like him
* None were 6 year olds as he is
* None had under 7 career runs (0-22)
* Hard to fancy him with just 2 runs
* He only won a 4 runner race
* His main rival fell at the last fence as well
* That win was littered with mistakes as well
* I dont see him winning this with 2 runs
* CARRY DUFF hasnt been in good form
* Pulling up 10 days ago doesnt look good
* I would want him showing better recent form
* CATCH THE PERK is a 12 year old absent 135 days
* I cant find a horse that age with that absence
* I would rather not bet him because of that
* EMERALD DESTINY hasnt been running well enough
* SOUTH BRONX also looks poor at the moment
* CRACKADEE is fine statistically and could win
* Every career run he has had has been on soft -heavy
* I wonder if the ground needs to be softer than it is
* He has been kept away from fast ground all his life
* This horse has Muscle Problems
* Perhaps thats why he prefers softer ground
* On this ground I would just overlook him
* STONERIGGS MERC looks complicated
* I dont see enough Positives to shortlist him
* He may not want this track
* KORELO is a class horse from the past
* Graded Horse off 10st looks fascinating
* He is badly regressive these days though
* There was much more life last time out though
* He has ran 12 times in the last 3 years since Feb 2006
* In 11 of those 12 runs he would not win this race
* On his last run he just might and thats the dilemma
* If his last runs shows he has something left to offer
* He could possibly then win this race but its a risk
* We know horses from 4m races are 0-36
* Thats an extra side stat to throw against him
* I dont think he is safe enough to bet
* He just misses the shortlist

POSSIBLES

SILLY WUPPLE - DARINA´S BOY


* DARINA´S BOY is a 13yo but thats fine
* Recent run and a Good one brings him into it
* SILLY WUPPLE is an interesting horse
* Last year M Scudamore said he was his best horse
* He is Topweight and has a 0-110 field to beat
* Last November he won a Novice Chase 15 lengths
* He was rated 125 after that - much better than these
* He blotted his copybook after that
* He pulled up on his next two runs
* His only run since was 4th last time
* That was in a 0-132 Novice Handicap Chase
* He was 4th and that runs good enough to win this
* It may be faster ground has helped him return to form
* On his last run he has an excellent chance
* His trainer has also won with his last runner

SELECTION - Each Way Bet on SILLY WUPPLE
SAVER on DARINA'S BOY

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