No Account Bet

Hampered a lot today with Betfair being down all
morning so I have not pushed it too far today. It's
a laid back message. It will have to be a day where
you rely on me to find the best bets on the day as
its been an unusual day with Betfair not working.
Circumstances force it to be a non agressive day.
I will highlight 2 horses today that I like.

Ludlow 12.40 - TRIBIANI 14/1

Taunton 1.20 - TRIGGERMAN 3/1

Tomorrow we get a nice Southwell meeting and
Cheltenham as well so I will aim for a stronger
bet tomorrow. That wasnt possible today with
the disruptions. I expect TRIBIANI will get beat
but I just have a Bee in my Bonnet about her so
want to suggest a small win bet. Statistically my
stats tell me TRIGGERMAN will beat the favourite
in the 1.20. I see a few issues that bother me
like being a small horse and riddeb by a claimer.
Will be interesting to see if some compelling stats
in that race work out or not. Two Mentions today.

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G


A Winner and a Place yesterday from two highlighted
horses. Pleased with that and happy with the overall
message as well. Mickmacmagoogle won easily and it
was good to see Prince Taime ridden out for a place
to save the majority of the stake with the second bet.


Betfair is down all morning today. Because of that and
other things which have a knock on effect to the mail
Its a case of Bitting and Bobbing today.


I have done a few words at LUDLOW and KEMPTON
without any previews and I will start there. After that
its a run through of HUNTINGDON and TAUNTON.


L U D L O W


The only race that I liked at Ludlow was the 12.40 race.
Not done a Preview. Its a Novice Claiming Hurdle. It is
a race with 12 renewals but thats just about the only race
of its kind in December. Statistically its a race where I'd
see 2-3 options but the one that interested me most was
TRIBIANI around 12/1. I have found two very similar
mares winning this race from the same prep race as well
and I thought she had a big chance. I will suggest Her e/w



KEMPTON


Leaving the 4pm Claimer alone as there are too many in
the race that are the right type. The winner of this race
will have 7-12 runs. At least I expect it to as every single winner of a 5f claimer in December was won by a horse who had 7-12 career starts. I'd go with RESENTFUL ANGEL as the likely winner of the 4.30pm but its a big field and I'm not convinced she will be a big enough price for a tight race like this. If it were me I'd play her in an Each Way Double.

I expected to say that Moonbeam Dancer had a great profile
in the 5.30pm handicap over 2 miles but to my surprise I did not see profile I liked. I couldnt find a 3yo winner like her so I think I would take her on with something each way. All the 3 year old winners of these races stepped up in trip to win as she did last time out. The ones that had done the trip and had won just as Moonbeam Dancer has done found themselves beaten by other types. Personally I think you are better off with something each way. WICKED DAZE would be my bet in the race each way if 8 run and win only if they dont.

I thought FATHSTA was the likely winner of the 6pm sprint.
He wont be great value. I fancied him last time and he should have won. He was very unlucky but everyone knows that and he will have been priced up because of that. I see him as one to have in an each way double. I would use SHAMIR (5pm) as the best horse for that each way double.


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H U N T I N G D O N

The first race is too complicated anyway without the
Barney Curley horse Northern Dune making things a
little more unreadable. He does look well handicapped
but not a race I can offer anything sensible in.


HUNTINGDON 1.00

11/10 Miss Sarenne, 7/4 Calusa Crystal, 4/1 Izita Star,
14/1 Maggie Mathias.

This is a Mares Novice Chase. The best profile has to
be the 4 year old MISS SARENNE for these reasons.

* All Mares Novice Chases
* Horses aged 4 with 7 + career starts
* Those that have won before
* Those that raced in at least Class 2 before
* There were 5 horses with that profile
* The finished W W W 5 W
* MISS SARENNE would be my choice



HUNTINGDON 2.00

11/4 Tidal Bay, 9/2 Albertas Run, 5/1 Herecomesthetruth,
5/1 Racing Demon, 11/2 Deep Purple, 10/1 Tartak,
12/1 Something Wells.

I dont have a statistical view in the Peterborough Chase
as the race is run later in the year and all the past history came from when it was run back in November. I wouldnt see RACING DEMON as a sensible bet with so long off
the track. TARTAK didnt do enough for me last time.
There has been 34 Graded Chases in December at every
trip. 30 of the 34 winners had Previous Grade 1 form.
33 of the 34 win had form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 races
so without either I'd see SOMETHING WELLS as one
that may lack the class. I think any of the others are
legitimate winners and hard to split. ALBERTAS RUN
looked reinvigorated by a big drop in trip last time so
perhaps he has not been staying longer trips when he
was seemingly bitterly dissapointing in Gold Cups and
King George's. I like ALBERTAS RUN.


HUNTINGDON 2.30

3/1 The Bonus Ball, 4/1 Kerada, 5/1 Cranky Corner,
7/1 Kokkokila, 10/1 Aim For The Stars, Raduis Bleu
14/1 Mr Tingle, 14/1 River Beauty, 14/1 Voramar Two
16/1 Rhythm Seeker, Carmela Maria, 33/1 Origami Imp
33/1 Plettenburg, 50/1 Good For Blue, Earl Of Thomond
100/1 Hi Ho Silvia.

This is a 2m Novice Hurdle. The big issue is whether to
oppose KERADA as a mare from a Bumper. Normally
that would be an easy decision and I'd oppose her but she
did come via a Listed Class Bumper so thats a bit different. If I had a great profile against her I would oppose her. If I didnt then I would not. CRANKY CORNER doesnt have a great profile. I looked at all 5 year olds like him beaten a fair way over 2m 4f last time. They were 4-129 but none had his absence and only 1 was as exposed as him. I dont like THE BONUS BALL or RIVER BEAUTY. I could not see a good record from RHYTHM SEEKER. The Profile
I liked the best was RADUIS BLUE.


I dont have a strong view in the Novice Handicap Chase
at 3pm. I find that these races are great when they throw
up a strong profile but impossible when they dont and this
race doesnt. Most fancied horses dont even come from a
Novice race which is really what you want. I quickly ran
a few profiles and felt ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES came out
as good as any but dont want to commit to the race as I'm
short on strong stats and its a race with a history of shocks.

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T A U N T O N

I dont like the Selling Hurdle. I cant find many
winners like any of this motley crew. The past
winners of this are usually well raced this year
and come from 2m 4f or shorter. I thought the
betting was about right. Forced me to pick one
and it would be BRIGADORE.

TAUNTON 1.20

7/4 Valentine Vic, 3/1 Triggerman, 4/1 Jau, 11/2 Russian Song, 8/1 Little George, 20/1 Upham Atom, 33/1 Bell Hill Lad, 50/1 Insured, 100/1 Sweet Request.

* This is a 3m Novice Hurdle
* December has seen 72 of these races
* Horses from Bumpers won just 2 races
* VALENTINE VIC comes from a Bumper
* Horses from Bumpers with under 3 runs were 0-52
* Horses that ran in Bumpers this year were 0-44
* VALENTINE VIC fails both stats and looks opposable
* I would want to take him on
* INSURED was useless on the flat and sold cheaply
* SWEET REQUEST -UPHAM ATOM are outclassed
* BELL HILL LAD doesnt appeal on his last run
* RUSSIAN SONG comes from a Bumper
* Horses doing that without winning before are 0-60
* LITTLE GEORGE didnt do enough for me last time
* I think 2 runners stand out
* TRIGGERMAN - JAU
* JAU has an average profile winning a maiden hurdle
* He is shortlistable but there is a better profile
* TRIGGERMAN is 7 and just won a Novice hurdle
* I looked at horses like him
* Horses aged 7 winning last time out
* No form in Class 3 or better
* Less than 7 career starts
* 1-2 runs this season
* Horses with that profile were 3-3
* TRIGGERMAN is excellent statistically
* TRIGGERMAN is the selection


TAUNTON 1.50

6/4 Recif De Thaix, 3/1 Chariot Charger,
7/2 Cracboumwiz, 5/1 Pocket Aces, 10/1 Warne´s Way,
33/1 Coup De Tabac, Procas De Thaix, 100/1 Sally Army.

This is a Novice Chase over 2m 3f. There has been 111
of these races at this time of year. CRACBOUMWIZ is
not for me. He has the longest absence in the field. I had
a look at all horses like him from Novice Hurdles and its
interesting none won with 5 or more starts and none won
when aged 8 or more and he is now 9 and just doesnt look
the right type. I think there are several alternatives that
could win this. Most of them had just good solid profiles.
I just shade it to RECIF DE THAIX as 4 year olds like
him winning last time and two runs this year did better
than the others. RECIF DE THAIX would be my choice.


TAUNTON 2.20

5/4 The Betchworth Kid, 13/8 Tito Bustillo,
7/1 Present To You, 14/1 Art Deco, 14/1 Cappagh,
20/1 Dean´s Grange, 20/1 I´m In The Pink,
20/1 Regain Du Charbonneau, 66/1 Kaycee,
100/1 Colonna Lecca, 100/1 Flying Squad,
100/1 Mrs Overall, Galloise, 200/1 The Brimmer.

No strong views on this Novice Hurdle. The only horse
I would see as statistically weak is PRESENT TO YOU
who is a 4yo from a Bumper and horses like him have
an even worse record when running this season and I'd
be opposing him. I would see this between the 4yo pair
THE BETCHWORTH KID and TITO BUSTILLO and
statistically I felt TITO BUSTILLO was stronger.



TAUNTON 2.50

3/1 Special Occasion, 7/2 Jocheski, 4/1 Cantabilly,
5/1 Shore Thing, Moment Present, 10/1 Wise Men Say,
12/1 Only For Sue.

This is a Handicap Hurdle just short of 2m 4f. We
have 145 similar races at this time of year. I thought
SPECIAL OCCASION had a poor profile and had not
done enough last time. ONLY FOR SUE looks too old
to defy 601 days absence. Statistically JOCHESKI may
find it hard to win again. He won off 102 last time and
is now off 117 and very few 5 year olds like him win a
second handicap and I wasnt impressed. I also feel that
WISE MEN SAY will struggle to overcome a poor run
as a 7 year old without any backclass of note and he is
not strong statistically either. SHORE THING comes
from winning a Claiming Hurdle. I am "Neutral" about
him. No horse in a similar handicap at this distance
came from Claimers but they did at other trips and I'd
not want to make him a negative because of that. He
would be shortlisted but not selected. The 4 year old
MOMENT PRESENT has a good profile but plenty
of weight for a 4 year old and I wonder if his handicap
mark is just a bit too high. If I had to pick the strongest
profile in the race it would be CANTABILITY. There
is no each way options so a win bet on CANTABILITY
would be the best option in a pretty tough race.


TAUNTON 3.50

4/1 Long Hop, 9/2 Posh Emily, 6/1 Kristoffersen,
7/1 Nougat De L´isle, 7/1 Six Day War, 8/1 Deep Pockets,
8/1 Thedeboftheyear, 14/1 Dovedale, 16/1 Solitary Palm,
16/1 Youbetterbegood, 25/1 Drumbeater.

* This is a 3m Handicap Hurdle
* There has been 169 similar races in December
* DEEP POCKETS comes from a handicap chase
* Horses doing that had a poor 2-120 record
* None were as old as him
* None ran as badly as he did last time
* POSH EMILY looks a horse to avoid
* No Female horse came from under 19f to win
* She is an exposed mare coming from 16f
* DOVEDALE doesnt interest me as an exposed mare
* If you look at exposed mares in 169 races
* Those without Graded form like here were 0-34
* She has also been kept away from soft ground
* It may be too soft and she is on a career high mark
* THEDEBOFTHEYEAR doesnt appeal
* Not as a Mare from a Novice Hurdle
* Some won but none as inexperienced as her
* None won with under 4 runs that season either
* YOUBETTERBEGOOD -DRUMBEATER look weak
* NOUGAT DE L´ISLE looks out of form
* LONG HOP has a weak profile
* I suspect he will need the run today
* 6 year old debutants like him were poor
* SIX DAY WAR looks vulnerable
* I looked at all 5 year olds with 1 run this year
* Few were beaten as far as him last time out
* Those with 10st 12lbs or more were 1-26
* I think the weight could beat him
* KRISTOFFERSEN is 9 and absent 77 days
* Horses aged 9 + with 13 + runs won 11 races
* None were absent more than 7 weeks (0-39)
* KRISTOFFERSEN may want a more recent run

SELECTION

SOLITARY PALM comes out quite well
and with no other decent profiles in the
race I will go with him at 20/1 each way.

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