Saturday March 14th

No Account Bet

One Selections

Each Way Treble

Uttoxeter 2.15 - Sir Tantallus Hawk
Lingfield 3.00 - Flying Lady
Uttoxeter 4.10 - Accordeon


Never had an each way treble before as a selection. Its
a bit of a novelty sort of Bet but were in front on the
week and can afford a speculative bet to end the week
and you are free to bet them all as win bets or doubles
as well if you like and I haven't plucked them out of
fresh air without good reasons !

Always planned for a Short Saturday message today and
there wont be one tomorrow. In the end whilst its not a
long one its quite punchy and could yet turn out to be a
bit better than many of the longer ones. Four races to
discuss. One is the Midlands National but I never get that
race right and I've fobbed you off with an unimpressive
preview. I am more interested in my Three Horses with
excellent profiles

Uttoxeter 2.15 - Sir Tantallus Hawk 10/11
Lingfield 3.00 - Flying Lady 9/4
Uttoxeter 4.10 - Accordeon 13/8

* I looked at each of their profiles.
* I had a look at all similar races they run in
* I searched for how horses with their profiles did
* I found that most horses with their profiles won

SIR TANTALLUS HAWK

* 11 Horses had his profile in all similar races
* They finished W W W W W W W W W 3 4

FLYING LADY

* 14 Horses had her profile in similar races
* They finished W W W W W W W 2 2 2 2 4 L L

ACCORDEON

* 23 Horses had his profile in all similar races
* W W W W W W W W W W W W W 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 4

In terms of bets and staking I was thinking each way doubles as they are all in races with decent frames. However its not helpful that Sir Tantallus Hawk is shorter than I planned as the favourite has pulled out in his race and I dont think I'm safe from collapsing markets in these races so I wont go with the each way doubles. In terms of strong win bets I suppose they are a bit short for account bets and theres every chance I pick the wrong one. Therefore I am suggesting a rare each way treble as it could come out as a 16/1 winner if all three win and thats a big price and you wont lose if they all place.

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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G

Friday's message was a bit stale for me. Think that was a
combination of a very tough Cheltenham card and some
Fatigue creeping in after a week of heavy messages. The
selection made money though. If you got the 40/1 about
Tramantano youve had a £35 profit and just over £26 if
you had 33/1. Either was it was a winner and kept us well
ahead at Cheltenham. It was good to have a couple of full
account bets as we have not been busy lately. That will I
hope open some floodgates and with the Flat looming we
have broken the back of a time of year thats problematic.



NEWCASTLE 2.15

NEWCASTLEGATESHEAD.COM
NOVICES' HURDLE (CLASS 4) (4yo+) 2m

Evs Sir Tantallus Hawk, 7/1 Legion D'Honneur, 12/1 Alderbridge, 12/1 World Of Choice, 16/1 Leo's Quest, 20/1 For A Dancer, 25/1 Authentic Act, 28/1 Apartman, 50/1 What A Cliche, 66/1 Solway Blue, 150/1 Ravensbill, 150/1 Recoil

SELECTION - SIR TANTALLUS HAWK

This is a 2m Novice Hurdle. You can rule out half a dozen straight away and there are only a handful that can win. I will be surprised if an unraced 7 year old like FOR A DANCER wins and he doesnt interest me. You'd have to be confident WORLD OF CHOICE is unlikely to win and AUTHENTIC ACT also lacks appeal. Its not a good sign that ALDERBRIDGE was beaten so far last time four weeks ago. He hated the ground that day and should run better but its asking a lot for him to win this. LEO´S QUEST may run well
but probably needs to improve. There look to be 3 main runners. One of these LEGION D´HONNEUR trading around 5/1 is hard to rate as he is unraced. There has been 17 renewals of this race and unraced horses had a weak 1-35 record so he hasnt found a race where unraced horses do well. Unraced 4 year olds are 2-84 in all similar Novice Hurdles at this time of year and whilst he has to be respected you always have the chance of beating these
types. I have to view SIR TANTALLUS HAWK as the stronger
runner and the best bet in the race

* SIR TANTALLUS HAWK has just won a Novice Hurdle
* I looked at the record of horses doing that in 187 races
* The record was good but far better when they had 7 + runs
* Those like him that had 7 or more runs had a brilliant record
* When coming from Novices over 20f or less they were 9-11
* When having 11st 6lbs and more they were 7 from 7

SIR TANTALLUS HAWK clearly has the strongest profile and
following a 10 length win and two wins in a row the history of all races show that when similar horses run in similar races at this time of year more often than not they win again

SELECTION - SIR TANTALLUS HAWK


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LINGFIELD 3.00

FREEBETS.CO.UK FREE BETS FOR CHELSEA V MAN CITY
CLAIMING STAKES (CLASS 6) (3yo) 1m

9/4 Flying Lady, 7/2 Hold The Bucks, 7/1 Crown Affair,
7/1 Destinationunknown, 7/1 Fantastic Fred, 10/1 Daily Double, 10/1 Whotsit, 14/1 General Sam, 33/1 Northern Champ, 33/1 Primera Rossa, 66/1 Come On Toby.

* This is a Claiming race over a mile for 3 year olds
* There has been 60 similar races at this time of year

Selection - FLYING LADY


The first thing I noticed about this race was that we had a horse in HOLD THE BUCKS who has never run in a Class 3 race or better before - all his form is mainly Class 5 or Class 6 - yet he has to give 8lbs weight to FLYING LADY whose ran in Listed class before. That may be a difficult task for him. My problem with HOLD THE BUCKS is that he has a 44 day absence when also quite exposed with 18 runs on the Flat. If you look at the 60 Claimers for 3 year olds at this time of year only 7 of these had an absence of over a month. None had over 12 runs before and he fails that. Those that had the penalty as he had with a 0-13 record. There is a massive chance he is too exposed to be
able to both defy and absence and carry his penalty. I want to oppose him. DESTINATIONUNKNOWN has to be vulnerable
as a filly from a maiden and just 2 career starts. In the 60 races Fillies that came from maidens were 1-17 but that filly had five runs and not just 2 runs and she's beatable with little experience. Since 1994 in these races Fillies that had under 5 career starts had a poor 1-47 record. I dont like the lighter raced fillies and DESTINATIONUNKNOWN fails that. CROWN AFFAIR also fails that as a filly with just 4 runs. Not a great problem with FANTASTIC FRED but he has the months absence and a bit to do at the weights. Horses that come from 7f races are also vulnerable and DAILY DOUBLE faces that. The horse that stands out to me is FLYING LADY. Her market danger has problems like many of her other rivals but it's also her profile that stands out to me. I looked at the following

* Fillies that came from Claiming races
* Those that were 1-2-3 last time in them
* Those that ran in the last month
* Those that had 9 or more career starts
* FLYING LADY has this profile
* There were 14 Fillies with that profile in 60 races
* The record of these horses was 7-14
* They were W W W W W W W 2 2 2 2 4 L L
* 12 of the 14 were 1st or 2nd and half of them won
* FLYING LADY looks the best option in this race

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UTTOXETER 3.10

JOHN SMITH'S MIDLANDS GRAND NATIONAL CHASE
HANDICAP (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 4m1f110y

7/1 Badgerlaw, 7/1 Kilcrea Asla, 8/1 Hold The Pin, 9/1 Operation Houdini, 12/1 Appleaday, 12/1 Companero, Officier De Reserve, 12/1 Russian Trigger, 14/1 Gidam Gidam, 16/1 Beat The Boys, 16/1 Flintoff, 16/1 Mon Mome, 20/1 Sea Diva, Naunton Brook, 25/1 The Dark Lord, 33/1 King Harald, 50/1 Always Waining.

The Midlands Grand National is a race I have a poor
record in but we improve every year and a quick try
this year. MON MOME - ALWAYS WAINING are out with too much weight. THE DARK LORD and KING HARALD are outclassed. I dont want to bet KILCREA ASLA with stamina doubts and I hate the fact he is a very small horse. Horses that had 1-2-3 runs this year struggled unless very unexposed. The
mixture of 13 + runs and under 4 runs that season show a 0-47 record ruling out BEAT THE BOYS , FLINTOFF and NAUNTON BROOK. I dont want BADGERLAW as he prepped over 2m 4f and in a Novice race. The combination of weight and eight
week absence for OFFICIER DE RESERVE may be too much. SEA DIVA is out as the only mare and a bit exposed. COMPANERO has a tough weight for a novice. OPERATION HOUDINI also comes from a Novice race and doesnt stand out from his
handicap mark. I would shortlist four horses.

HOLD THE PIN - APPLEADAY
GIDAM GIDAM - RUSSIAN TRIGGER


Considering 10 of the 14 winners had 10st 4lbs or
less the interesting one may be HOLD THE PIN.

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UTTOXETER 4.10

TOTESWINGER NOVICES' HURDLE (CLASS 4) (4yo+) 2m4f110y

7/4 Acordeon, 11/4 Ogee, 9/2 Quiver Hill, 5/1 Our Hero,
11/2 Bormo, 25/1 Radmores Revenge, 40/1 Pugilist, 40/1
Shooters Wood, 100/1 Chief Lady Olwyn, 100/1 Vasodilator.

SELECTION - ACCORDEON

* This is a Novice Hurdle over an extended 2m 4f
* There has been 271 similar races in March
* OGEE sets the standard rated 132
* He has just placed in a Graded hurdle
* That doesnt impress me much to be honest
* I looked at 271 races for Graded horses
* Those from Grade 2-Grade 3 novices were poor
* Those like OGEE that ran within 7 weeks were 0-13
* Not a strong stat but it illustrates one point
* We dont need to assume these horses are strong
* In fact its the Maiden Hurdle winners that excel
* More about those later
* BORMO comes here from a handicap hurdle
* He was well beaten in that race and is still a maiden
* Rated 122 after 8 runs he is respected but beatable
* QUIVER HILL has a solid profile and is respected
* Horses that won Maiden hurdles last time are excellent
* ACORDEON - OUR HERO do this today

* OUR HERO has 2 runs and just won a Maiden Hurdle
* Horse with 2 runs that won Maiden Hurdles were strong
* Since 1995 these horses had a 6-8 record
* They finished W W W W W 2 4
* He did only win a dreadful Maiden hurdle at 1/4 though
* His trainer is also facing a number of better stables
* I prefer the chance of ACCORDEON

* ACCORDEON has also just won a Maiden hurdle
* Look at horses with his profile
* Horses that won Maiden Hurdle within the last month
* At least 2 runs that season
* There were 23 horses with that profile in 271 races
* They had a Brilliant 13-23 record with these placings
* W W W W W W W W W W W W W 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 4
* Those like ACCORDEON who also place on the previous start
* These horses had a record of 11 wins from 15 runners
* ACCORDEON is the selection

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