No Account Bet

No Selections

There was little chance of a strong bet once Redcar the only Flat meeting was abandoned. We are left with two rain affected National Hunt meetings and there is no Silver Bullet Stat that might have opened a race up to a decent bet so No selections today. I have looked at seven races at the two meetings. There are a few selections and options just as a Guide but I dont see anything good enough for a proper bet on a race affected day.

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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G


The weather made it a lottery yesterday and I kept it tight and didnt go with a selection. The only horse I would have done that with was Cardinal who was beaten only a neck into second having finished fast from a bad draw. He ran very well and I would have been frustrated if I had gone with him only to see him go so close


Redcar has been Abandoned today. That was the only Flat card and we are only left with two National Hunt Cards and hardly many races we I can say anything about. We really needed the Redcar meeting to go ahead and without that we're struggling.



NEWTON ABBOT 2.00

1/2 Fongoli, 3/1 Location, 10/1 Highland River, 14/1 The Boat Shed, 16/1 Bertie Bacon, 50/1 Wise Princess.

The first race sees FONGOLI odds on having won last week. It was a rubbish race she won but she is strong statistically because of it and her chance depends on the newcomers. Impossible to judge these horses. It wouldnt surprise me if one of them won as I think FONGOLI beat a non stayer last week with and also a favourite that flopped. That said she is experienced and won recently and I think shes probably more likely to win than not. If I was betting I would have half stakes on her and half on one
of her rivals to place even with 6 runners. Gives you a chance to win twice and allows a chance not to lose if the favourite is beat.

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NEWTON ABBOT 2.30

15/8 Sizing Asia, 9/4 Right Option, 6/1 Penyfan Dawn, 7/1 Plenty Of Chat, 9/1 Heathfield Flyer, 14/1 Coup De Tabac, 33/1 Glacial Call, 33/1 Light Entertainer, 33/1 Lucky Eric, 33/1 Meleeha, 50/1 Living The Dream, 66/1 Isitanywonder, 100/1 Cut To, Royal Band, Thematis.


The Maiden hurdle looks quite competetive. SIZING ASIA and
RIGHT OPTION are excellent statistically. I looked at all the maiden hurdles at this time of year round this distance. Horses like them that were second last time out having not had to go up in trip much won about 50% of the time. I thought both of these looked stronger than the opposition. I dont want to be with PENYFAN DAWN coming from a 16f Maiden hurdle as this race is 2m 6f and its a step up in distance and he is from a sire that hasnt had a National Hunt winner beyond 2 miles yet so there must be a stamina doubt. HEATHFIELD FLYER is not for me. Not as a 9 year old with just 2 completed National Hunt and the last of those was when hammered last time. He was well backed and could bounce back from that but he does not have much experience for an older horse and I would not choose him above the big two runners. COUP DE TABAC may not stay this far. PLENTY OF CHAT looks the 3rd best runner to me and could go well. Statistically the strong pair are SIZING
ASIA and RIGHT OPTION. Given the choice and the experience
factor I would just prefer RIGHT OPTION but feel he is best in an each way double.

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STRATFORD 2.40

5/2 North Walk, 3/1 Bet Noir, 9/2 Feeling, 7/1 Just Mossie, 7/1 Papuan Prince, 12/1 Tora Petcha, 25/1 Bold Policy, 25/1 General Mayo, 33/1 Ladette To Lady, 33/1 Owain James, 66/1 How Realee, 66/1 Jethro Wheeler, 100/1 Tot Hill.

This is a selling hurdle over 2m and there has been about 50 of these races. No filly won as inexperienced as BET NOIR. She is a 4 year old filly with just 1 career race over hurdles. No Filly aged 4 won any seller at this time of year at any distance with under 3 career runs and none won any similar race coming from a seller so BET NOIR looks a negative to me. PAPUAN PRINCE looks weak to be. He is inexperienced and no 4 year old has won a seller coming from a maiden hurdle (0-28). JUST MOSSIE does not stay well enough in my view. TORA PETCHA is a mystery with a long absence but as he is exposed I would bet against him
winning after a 215 day break. BOLD POLICY looks completely
unsafe. This looks between FEELING and NORTH WALK. On
ratings NORTH WALK looks slightly better and and is clearly the established horse in this grade. However look at 9 Selling races at Stratford at this time of year and more winners came via handicaps as FEELING has done. I would see it between the two runners. Marginal preference for FEELING with a Saver on NORTH WALK the sensible option.


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NEWTON ABBOT 3.00

13/8 Choumakeur, 7/2 Mr Fluffy, 11/2 Olay Olay, 8/1 September Moon, 10/1 Classic Clover, 10/1 Dizzy Future, 14/1 Bengal Bullet, 25/1 Twocute, 33/1 Touch Of Fate.

I am going to leave the Handicap Chase alone at 3pm. It will probably be won by CHOUMAKEUR - Horses like him that won handicap hurdles last time out had brilliant records when going back chasing. Personally he isnt for me. Respect his profile but its over 3m 2f and CHOUMAKEUR has only had 1 previous chase run and thats not much at all. I would probably just prefer an each way option on something like OLAY OLAY as its not a big field and there are horses that cant win and I think there is much more meat on the bones betting him each way than a shorter priced horse with just one career run.

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STRATFORD 3.10

7/4 Tot Of The Knar, 2/1 Coq Hardi, 5/2 Just Amazing,
8/1 Shenanigan, 50/1 Lucent.

Very tight call in this Novice Chase about whether to risk a mare like TOT OF THE KNAR first time out. I decided that
given the record of similar types in similar races it was best to avoid her and I would argue JUST AMAZING is a better option and he shades it just ahead of Coq Hardi the danger.

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NEWTON ABBOT 3.30

7/2 Wake Board, 9/2 Benetwood, 5/1 Indian Blood, 7/1 Silmi, 8/1 Horseford Hill, 10/1 Raslan, 10/1 Stumped, 16/1 Bureaucrat, 20/1 Master Wells, 50/1 Top Trees.

The 3.30 is a competetive 0-135 Handicap Hurdle and about 80 of these races have been run at this time of year. I would have to oppose WAKE BOARD as a 4 year old with just 3 runs. There were only 7 winners aged 4 winning the 80 races and none had under 4 career starts as he does and none had the absence he has. WAKE BOARD has been off 281 days and if you look at 4yo's that came from Novice Hurdles as he does only 1 won and that was a horse with 4 runs that won a recent novice hurdle. He is unproven and unlike any of the 80 winners and whilst I would not say he couldnt win he didnt appeal to me. SILMI makes no appeal after being hammered yesterday. BENETWOOD is not for me off 130. Thats a stiff career high mark. Go back to the
time around the Cheltenham Festival and he wasnt good enough to run in any handicaps there and was running around lower grade tracks when the likes of RASLAN was running in the Pertemps Final. BENETWOOD has won 2 selling races and a small field 0-122 handicap and finds himself on a Career high mark and I'd rather have seen him prove his class in this sort of race off this sort of rating before. He has work to do for me. TOP TREES wont win beaten in a seller last time. I dont see a great record
from horses from selling hurdles and I think STUMPED despite winning a seller last time out has to be vulnerable in this race. MASTER WELLS isnt running well enough. BUREAUCRAT does not look Fit and has been passed over by Richard Johnson. Horses from Novice Hurdles won 3 of the 80 races. None were as inexperience as HORSEFORD HILL and none were his age either (0-15). He isnt for me. I prefer Two runners in this race. I dont see whats wrong with RASLAN despite a drop in distance and he has plenty of ability. INDIAN BLOOD also comes out very well. Marginal prefence for INDIAN BLOOD and RASLAN.

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NEWTON ABBOT 4.00

5/2 Rippling Ring, 3/1 Mutual Friend, 7/1 Safari Journey,
10/1 Invisible Man, 14/1 Morestead, 16/1 Misbehaviour,
100/1 Secret Cavern.

The Beginners Chase is impossible as we have unraced horses
and most of the fancied runners havent ran over fences before. Shaping up into a race with 4 big runners. I dont have any real problem with 4 year olds but no similar race went to a 4yo as inexperienced as INVISIBLE MAN and this French recruit is not for me. RIPPLING RING is the class horse and the only one of the main runners to experience chasing before but he was a dissapointing favourite that day after breaking a blood vessel. He was a funny horse over hurdles and he isnt one for big bets. I do like his 115 day absence and it may be that he needs to be Fresh something also helpful for a horse that has problems with blood vessels. If thats the best time to catch him RIPPLING RING will probably win. If it isnt then some
lesser able horses like Mutual Friend or Safari Journey will be the main runners. It comes down to what RIPPLING RING is capable off today. Because of the absence I would just see RIPPLING RING as worth one more chance but its a guess.

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