No Account Bet

1 Selection

SEDGEFIELD 1.20

LETTERPRESS - Each Way

Apologies for the later message today as one of the best
bets at Southwell (Blue Charm) withdrew just before I
was due to send the message at 11.15am and that carved
up the message and I had to mess around with it a bit and
reconsider the selections on the day. I was planning to
have an each way double with Blue Charm but thats been
lost now so I am reverting to my 2nd choice on the day.

Sedgefield has 3 interesting races and I have previewed
those. Southwell tends to be fascinatingly complex at
the moment. There are 6 Southwell races previewed and
I am close in a lot of them. Whether I am close enough is
the issue. Looking for a selection there were a few options. LETTERPRESS each way around 7/2 at Sedgefield looks a very solid option. I dont know if he can beat the favourite but he has a strong profile and its not easy to see 3 to beat him so I feel he is worth a bet much as I would have liked a weaker favourite to take on. I didnt see LETTERPRESS as an account bet and I didnt like the "obvious" look to the bet but as a bet he is worth considering each way around 7/2 and 4/1 in a couple of places much as I'd have preferred a less obvious horse. May be a mistake to go with the 2nd option on the day after Blue Charm has withdrawn but I will go with it as I feel he has a strong chance of winning.

The Messages this week will be on Wednesday - Friday
Saturday and Sunday. I cant do a Thursday message as I
have to take my father for a hospital appointment so there
is no Thursday message but a sunday message will replace
that. I think the Tote Gold Trophy winner may run on
saturday at Cheltenham and its an interesting weekend.


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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G


S E D G E F I E L D


Sedgefield is definately good enough for a few words but
not worth risking hours of preparation in case the meeting
went down at the morning inspection. As it has survived
time for a few comments in three Novice and Maiden races.

SEDGEFIELD 12.50

2/1 The Panama Kid, 3/1 Strokestown, 13/2 Magellan Straits, 7/1 Prince Of Gdansk, 8/1 Catch Bob, 9/1 Red Dynamite, 20/1 All Out For Seven, 20/1 Galaxy Spirit, 25/1 Mister Marker, 25/1 Quick Man, 50/1 Work Boy, 100/1 Gin Mill.

There looks to be 5 main runners. CATCH BOB is a bit
of a menace to assess after a fall and a slipped saddle and
I found him pretty impossible to rate accurately. I do not
see a good enough argument for MAGELLAN STRAITS or PRINCE OF GDANSK from Bumpers. Both for me are unlikely winners but not totally out of it. I also think that STROKESTOWN is a tough horse to rate as yet another Bumper profile. Without a doubt the strongest profile in this belongs to THE PANAMA KID . The issue is clear though. It all depends on whether THE PANAMA KID can handle the heavy ground and thats no certainty and it would worry me a lot. On good ground he would be a much better bet. This would just lead me to think the value in the race is CATCH BOB much as he is hard to read and at the odds a saver on THE PANAMA KID is suggested

SELECTION - CATCH BOB
SAVER - THE PANAMA KID

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SEDGEFIELD 1.20

8/13 Fiendish Flame, 13/2 Letterpress, 8/1 Karmadice,
10/1 Alderbridge, 12/1 Blacks Bridge, 16/1 El Chico, 20/1
Rennington Blue, 25/1 Abbey Minster, 33/1 Lisglynn Jim,
33/1 What Happened, 40/1 My Midas, 200/1 Over The Odds.

There looks to be 3 main runners and possibly 5 you can
consider in division 2 of the opening novice hurdle. I did
not think BLACKS BRIDGE did enough last time out and
he isnt for me. KARMADICE is hard to read. I would be
asking myself whether he has achieved enough. Its a close
call. He comes into the "cant rule out" category but there
are stronger profiles. ALDERBRIDGE doesnt interest me
as I havent found a winner like him. There is no reason at
all why FIENDISH FLAME cant win. He deserves to be
favourite. He is the most likely winner. I just feel he is
too short and the prices on him and LETTERPRESS are
too far apart. LETTERPRESS has a very strong profile
as a novice hurdle winner penalised and i would have to
argue strongly that LETTERPRESS each way is much
more value and the sensible bet in this race.

SELECTION - LETTERPRESS Each Way

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SEDGEFIELD 3.20

7/4 Cave Hill, 15/8 Bay Cherry, 7/1 Overlady, 12/1 Stark Raven, 14/1 Maolisa, 14/1 Pre Token, 20/1 Paddymcgintysgoat, 25/1 Glengap, 25/1 The Artful Fox, 33/1 Esme Rides A Gaine.

This is a 3m 3f Maiden Chase. Not many of these long
distance chases about. In terms of stable records the best
surely is F Murphy but I dont want his PRE TOKEN in
this race not so much as he hasn't got round twice lately
ut I would be sceptical he wants heavy ground and also
sceptical he stays and the combination of both put me
off. I dont see a strong case for many and would oppose
Stark Raven, Glencap and Maolisa. I cant find a Maiden
Chase winner anywhere and anytime that was won by a
maiden hunter chaser like OVERLADY and I cant find a
female seasonal debutant winner that was so inexperienced
so OVERLADY looks weak to me. CAVE HILL has to be
interesting as he is owned by Trevor Hemmings and that
means he is bound to be a decent chasing type that has all
the improvement over fences. CAVE HILL hasnt jumped
a fence though and whilst he will be a strong chasing type
its something to consider. So to is this. Between January
and March there has been 123 maiden chase's over any and
every distance. In 123 races horses that came from Handicap Hurdles as CAVE HILL does had a 0-90 record. They won at other times of year and it could be a Blip but in the first 3 months of the year a 0-90 record has to raise a doubt about CAVE HILL but in his favour is BAY CHERRY his market danger also looks shaky to me. I would prefer him to have had a few more runs. He hardly set the world alight on his debut and made mistakes and he needs to improve a lot on his debut to win. That really complicates the situation as there may not be a natural alternative. Somehow 1 of these horses is going to overcome their problem and win. I take the view that the best bet has to be CAVE HILL but not as a win bet but in an each way double. I would suggest one possible option is Dance and Dance in the 3.30 at Southwell in an each way double with him. The selection is therefore CAVE HILL in an each way double.

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S O U T H W E L L



SOUTHWELL 1.00

PLAY BINGO @ WILLIAMHILL.COM
HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (4yo+,0-55) 6f

100/30 Jordi Roper, 7/2 Cabopino, 6/1 Nabeeda, 7/1 Mind Alert, 9/1 Cape Of Storms, 10/1 Head To Head, 10/1 Soba Jones, 14/1 Afton View, 14/1 Straight Face, 33/1 George The Best, 50/1 Berrymead, 50/1 Government.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-55 rated horses
* There has been 55 similar races at Southwell
* There has been 166 similar races elsewhere
* BERRYMEAD is out as a filly from a heavy defeat
* GOVERNMENT looks outclassed
* GEORGE THE BEST is out aged 8 absent 332 days
* CABOPINO is a filly with only 3 runs coming from a maiden
* In 166 races fillies with similar profiles won nothing
* Fillies that came from maidens were 0-28
* Fillies that had under 5 career starts were 0-17
* There has been 3202 all aged handicaps on Sand
* Thats 3202 races at any distance and any class
* Thats between January and March
* I looked at Fillies like CABOPINO
* Fillies from Maidens with under 7 runs were 1-164
* Thats a big worry for CABOPINO
* SOBA JONES makes no appeal from a claimer drawn one
* STRAIGHT FACE looks opposable back at 6f
* Much depends here on JORDI ROPER back from 8f
* He won at 6f - came 2nd at 8f - now is back at 6f
* I dont like horses with a very recent run down 2f
* There has been 668 Class 6 handicaps at 6f
* Thats all year round on any surface
* Horses that ran within 7 days coming from 8f were poor
* Just 2-85 managed it but none were like JORDI ROPER
* Those with under 21 career starts were 0-38
* Those that came from handicaps were 0-56
* Dont think its a compelling trend but its a worry
* JORDI ROPER has a lot of adjusting to do back at 6f
* AFTON VIEW has exacty the same problem
* I think there are 4 statistical strong runners
* NABEEDA - CAPE OF STORMS
* HEAD TO HEAD - MIND ALERT

CONCLUSION

Happy with my shortlist of four in the race but they are tightly matched. HEAD TO HEAD has a 0-26 career record but that does not worry me too much and he is worth his place on the shortlist. NABEEDA has a solid chance on form and on trends but I would argue that the horse he finished just ahead of last time over course and distance CAPE OF STORMS is better value and overproced at anything like 10/1 or more. MIND ALERT is a less predictable
runner . He is the spanner in the works. Watched him over 7f last time and suspect he didnt get home and he will be better over this trip. One thing that puts me off is that he wouldnt have won at 6f last time but his profile suggests he could pop up when unexpected and throw that spanner. In terms of preference CAPE OF STORMS looks decent value and in terms of a saver I would consider Mind Alert.

SELECTION - CAPE OF STORMS E/W 10/1
SAVER - MIND ALERT

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SOUTHWELL 1.30

WILLIAM HILL TELEBETTING ON 0800 44 40 40
SELLING STAKES (CLASS 6) (4yo+) 7f

3/1 Bobski, 4/1 Lethal, 11/2 Hamaasy, 12/1 Cap St Jean,
14/1 Kingsmaite, 14/1 Run Free, 20/1 Kinout, 20/1 Magical
Song, 33/1 Penel, 100/1 So Sublime.

* This is a 7f selling race
* There has been 83 similar races
* RUN FREE has to put a poor run behind him
* Horses beaten over 10 lengths over 6f or shorter were 1-93
* Thats something KINOUT fails
* SO SUBLIME is out beaten in a 0-45 classified last time
* PENAL and MAGIAL SONG are opposed
* Both have far too much to do at the weights
* CAP ST JEAN has also been operating in a lower level
* He also has a jockey thats never ridden a winner before
* CAP ST JEAN has ran 27 times in Class 5 and lower
* None of the 83 winners that were exposed failed to run in better class
* BOBSKI is the highest rated horse in the race
* He is also a 7 year old absent 120 days
* I would be inclined to ignore him because of that
* In 83 races horses absent 7 weeks or more were 3-162
* None were exposed (0-50) or aged 7 + (0-36) as he is
* He also lacks any Southwell form
* He does have back class which does increase his chance
* Overall though I have to prefer something else
* I would question LETHAL statistically
* I dont like that he has just one race since August
* He also has to step up in trip
* In his favour is that he has back class and ability
* LETHAL may pop up but I do see some weakness
* HAMAASY has been regularly beaten in lower class races
* As he is drawn 1 and up in trip I wouldnt bet him without concern
* That said he is fit and running well so I respect him
* If BOBSKI and LETHAL are not at their best - a fair chance
* Then HAMAASY could go very well in this race
* KINGSMAITE has a small chance and isnt out of it

CONCLUSION

With Blue Charm being a non runner the clear cut selection has now gone. I would have been with him with some confidence but his absence makes this harder. You are now dependant on solely class 6 animals like Hamaasy - Kingsmaite - Cap St Jean who all have pretty good profiles taking on "better class" and "More proven" horses like Bobski and Lethal. However the classier pair Bobski and Lethal have flaws and problems and the race will depend on how close to their best they are capable of running today when neither are guaranteed to be fit. For a bet in the race I am going to suggest a PLACE Only bet at about
3/1 or better on CAP ST JEAN

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SOUTHWELL 2.00

PLAY POKER @ WILLIAMHILL.COM
HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (4yo+,0-65) 1m

4/1 Mambo Sun, 5/1 Sularno, 6/1 Rub Of The Relic, 6/1 West End Lad, 10/1 Haroldini, 10/1 Vogarth, 12/1 Bridge Of Fermoy, 12/1 Hilbre Court, 14/1 Louisiade, 14/1 Petroglyph, 14/1 Tiger's Rocket, 20/1 Tevez, 25/1
Komreyev Star, 33/1 Mont Cervin.

* This is an 8f handicap for 0-55 rated horses
* Southwell has had 72 similar races
* There has been 190 at other tracks
* KOMREYEV STAR is out as a 7yo with 1 run since September
* MONT CERVIN is out absent 92 days
* Exposed horses absent 7 weeks or more are 3-167
* WEST END LAD fails that and could be vulnerable
* Not a good record and the 3 that won all ran in higher grade
* He only just fails that so I wouldnt be dogmatic
* WEST END LAD has no back class though
* As he lacks back class I dont want to give him the benefit
* SULARNO may be a little underraced
* I am uncomfortable he has been absent 39 days
* He also has just 2 runs since July 2008
* PETROGLYPH has been hurdling and is hard to judge
* I dont see him with an obvious chance
* TEVEZ doesnt look ready to win and looks underraced
* I feel the same about LOUISIADE
* TIGER´S ROCKET has not done enough lately
* I also think he is badly drawn in stall 1
* HILBRE COURT is not for me today
* He lookes regressive after a stable downgrade in September
* I also think he is badly drawn in stall 2
* BRIDGE OF FERMOY comes from a 7f seller
* Horses from sellers over 7f or shorter were 0-43
* I would be inclined to oppose him
* BRIDGE OF FERMOY may be one to be with next time

SHORTLIST

* HAROLDINI - MAMBO SUN
* RUB OF THE RELIC - VOGARTH

* HAROLDINI looks shortlistable back in class 6
* He is 0-17 in Class 5 and higher but 6-34 in Class 6 and lower
* I would rather he didnt have to step up from 7f
* He has won at 8f here and is quite well handicapped though
* HAROLDINI also won this race last year coming from 7f
* VOGARTH isnt out of it coming from an 8f seller
* Not with a recent run and placed in that race
* MAMBO SUN and RUB OF THE RELIC come from the same race
* Both look fine statistically and have decent chances

SELECTION

Its open. Some of my negatives are "Only just" opposed and I could have easily been too strict in opposing a few but in the end I was most drawn to HAROLDINI around 9/1. I really do not think I have made the case well enough for top of the message business here and this is a bit harder than I realised.


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SOUTHWELL 2.30

PLAY GOLF AT SOUTHWELL GOLF CLUB
HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-100)7f

9/4 Majuro, 9/4 Nightjar, 5/1 Internationaldebut, 11/2 Mozayada, 10/1 Mister New York, 14/1 Excusez Moi, 16/1 Haajes.

* This is a 0-107 handicap over 7f
* There has been 63 similar races at this time of year
* EXCUSEZ MOI comes from a 5f race which is an issue
* None of the 63 winners came from a 5f race
* HAAJES is out coming from a 73 day absence
* He also has potential issues at 7f
* INTERNATIONALDEBUT comes from a 6f race 3 days ago
* I looked at horses that did this running within a week
* They had an unimpressive 2-62 record
* Those that didnt win that race were 0-50
* He also lacks any Southwell experience
* His sire has yet to breed a Southwell winner as well
* NIGHTJAR and MISTER NEW YORK come from Class 4
* Both horses were unplaced in class 4 last time
* NIGHTJAR steps up in class from a career high mark
* MISTER NEW YORK has never won from this mark before
* He also has no Southwell form
* NIGHTJAR looks a bigger threat and is 2-2 here
* NIGHTJAR could well be saver material in this
* MOZAYADA won 4 handicaps recently
* When he was raised into Class 2 he then Lost
* He won next time out back down into a Class 4
* His issue is whether he can cope back up in Class 2
* MOZAYADA's best win came in a 0-77 handicap
* This is a 0-107 handicap and thats a big difference
* MOZAYADA's Class 2 defeat was 19 days ago
* That day he finished behind MAJURO
* That was a good run by MAJURO but he has 1 issue
* He has had just 1 run since November
* I would prefer more and he could regress from that

CONCLUSION

There is 1 reason above against every runner. I suppose
MAJURO has to come out as the "Most likely" winner
its just I wish he had more runs. The temptation to bet
NIGHTJAR each way is blunted as there are just seven
runners. I think he is the danger. In the end given the odds I would suggest the following bet but I dont see enough value in the prices to consider a top of message bet

SELECTION - NIGHTJAR 7/2 +
SAVER - MAJURO 15/8

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SOUTHWELL 3.00

THANK YOU CHRISTINE HANDICAP
(CLASS 4) (4yo+,0-85) Distance 1m4f

4/1 Clear Reef, 4/1 Take Me There, 11/2 Il Grande Ardone,
7/1 Persian Peril, 8/1 River Ardeche, 9/1 Friends Hope, 9/1
Red Fama, 10/1 Hucking Heat, 12/1 Puy D'Arnac, 20/1
Sommersturm, 33/1 Barawin.

* This is a 12f handicap for 0-83 rated horses
* Southwell has had 78 similar races
* There has been 273 similar races elsewhere
* BARAWIN is a filly who came last on both recent runs
* I couldnt bet her in this race
* SOMMERSTURM is out with 1 run since August
* He also has a months break and started 50/1 for a similar race
* RED FAMA was progressive 126 days ago
* Thats a long absence though and It would worry me
* He is also not certain to be well handicapped
* Nick Bycroft his trainer has a poor record with absences
* Bycrofts record with all horse absent a month is 3-399
* Those aged 5 + like RED FAMA are 0-138
* RED FAMA is opposed
* FRIENDS HOPE has a worrying profile as well
* She is an 8yo mare with just 1 run since August
* She also has to step up from 8f and looks weak
* G A Swinbank runs two horses and neither are out of it
* I juet prefer to oppose Puy D'Arnac and Persian Peril
* PUY D´ARNAC has a few niggling concerns
* He has no Southwell form at all
* He has a 38 day absence
* He may want further as well
* He was last seen in Handicap Hurdles when dissapointing
* Several small worries add up to a shaky profile
* PERSIAN PERIL has 3 issues for me
* He has an 84 day break not easy to overcome
* He has a career high mark
* He also has a poor draw in stall one
* This leaves 5 runners and any could pop up
* RIVER ARDECHE ran well at 66/1 last time out
* This is a better race and there is a worry it flattered him
* That said RIVER ARDECHE is fine statistically
* TAKE ME THERE has just won a maiden
* In 78 Southwell races maiden winners were 0-17
* They did win at other tracks though so he isnt a negative
* Would have prefered a more recent run but he isnt out of this
* HUCKING HEAT has to step up from 9f
* I have found the odd winner like him and he is "acceptable"
* IL GRANDE ARDONE is hard to rate with just 2 English runs
* His previous form is in Italy where he won several races
* On his last 2 English runs you have to give him a chance
* CLEAR REEF is down from 14f but doesnt have a bad profile

SELECTION

I wont pretend there isnt a bit of guesswork in my selection as there is - but I am just going to risk RIVER ARDECHE for Pat Haslam in the hope he can improve again on his last run as he is unexposed and clearly has ability

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SOUTHWELL 3.30

MEMBERSHIP OF SOUTHWELL GOLF CLUB
MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (3yo+) 6f

4/1 Clear Reef, 4/1 Take Me There, 11/2 Il Grande Ardone,
7/1 Persian Peril, 8/1 River Ardeche, 9/1 Friends Hope, 9/1 Red Fama, 10/1 Hucking Heat, 12/1 Puy D'Arnac, 20/1
Sommersturm, 33/1 Barawin.

This is a trappy 6f maiden race. There has been 102 similar races run at this time of year. DANCE AND DANCE has an obvious chance and he may well win but with unraced horses against him the market may help more than I can. I would want to see a few unraced fillies win similar races before I backed one and in 102 races unraced fillies are just 1-52 which puts me off the Prescott runner ANGEL SONG and CROY another unraced filly. I do not want PETRENKO as he lost by 13 lengths just 12 days ago and that was too far too soon for me. It may be relevant that the unraced LIVELY BLADE is from a stable thats never before had
an unraced maiden winner before but what you can read into that is debatable. There is another that is unraced and that also cost a fair few quid and thats UNBELIEVABLE JEFF. He wants some watching in the market from an unpredictable yard. My Head says leave the race alone as your guessing. My heart doesnt have an interest. My Gut feels UNBELIEVABLE JEFF is the one interesting runner that could beat the favourite and confidence or lack of it in him will be influenced by the market.

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