No Account Bet

One Selection Today

Each Way Double

Newcastle 4.00 - CATCH BOB
Kempton 4.50 - BELLVANO

I have gone with an each way double today which
wouldnt have been my first choice of bet but it's
really about the balance sheet rather than the ego
so I feel this offers my safest chance of a big priced
winner as it will be 10/1 + if both win but also offers
me my safest bet today as well. Bellvano looks to be
in a safe each way race assuming all 8 run and I like
him statistically and have a jockey statistic that is
in his favour as well and I think he has to go close.
CATCH BOB is in another pleasantly framed race
but I feel I have 2 good negatives for his two main
rivals so he does make a lot of appeal. If they both
win it will be a big pay out and they really ought to
be placed and if they do we can't lose on the day.

Todays Message opens with 4 very brief paragrahs
that just introduce the 4 main meetings today and
each one just skips through one or two issues at each
course and sets the tone for the Preview Races. There
are Seven previews after that in todays mail.

I would have prefered a stand out single bet at decent
odds but it is about having more money at the end
of the day than at the start and I think my bet gives
me the better chance. The message is Intense and
Technical. I am sure some real gems exist below
but the stats have taken me into dangerous waters
and some very hard handicaps and it may be a case
that I am 95% right in these races but have just not
nailed them. The analysis may outclass the selections.
I really fancied BORMO in the 1.30 at Kempton but
he is weak as a kitten in the market and whilst I am
on at 14/1 you have to wonder whether he is here
to win or hear for a Cheltenham prep race so that
stops me making him a bet. It would have been easy
to go with DEE EE WILLIAMS as an each way bet
against a red hot favourite I feel is vulnerable and
he was a 50-50 decision. Decided to keep him lower
down the message. In the Big two Chases today I feel
I am not far away. I am taking on and opposing the
two favourites. I am opposing Jass in the Eider Chase
and have gone down the Merigo - Harmony Brig road.
I think Ungaro has a great chance in the Racing Post
Chase as well but in all honesty I think I have failed
to make a strong enough case in the handicaps I am
previewing today to go with anything as a selection.
That has left me with the each way double and that
is my only selection on the day.

Sunday Message tomorrow and looking forward to
that. Should be less intense and I ought to be able
to find something with three meetings. There is a
new message time now of 11.45 am but todays is
a bit earlier as its a Saturday and I am also aiming
to get tomorrow's out earlier than normal so that
could be a 10.15am message as a one off.


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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G



I will start with very quick paragraphs at the four main
meetings but the meat on the bones is after that with
seven preview races offering me the best angles today.


N E W C A S T L E

* Preview later in the 3.30 race
* Preview later in the 4.00 race

The Eider Chase is the most interesting race here today and
I have done that preview in Full later on in the message. I do not like the rest of the card. The 1.50pm tied me in knots and couldnt find a negative. Even the long absentee horse looked strong statistically. Dont have the weapons here. I felt the same about the next race and with First Look being my only negative in the race that wasnt enough. If I was to bet in the 2.20 it would be BYWELL BEAU as he is well in today and comes from the same prep race as last years winner of this race. This looks a race well within his range and if it wasnt for the 10lbs claimer whose had just 1 career race I may well have previewed the race and selected him. After that its impossible to oppose ERNST BLOFELD at 2.55pm. I have the next race previewed but the last two races a small field novice chase and a bumper look irrelevant

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L I N G F I E L D

* Preview later in the 2.30pm

Small fields here today so I am not interested. I think I may do some Lingfield stuff in Sundays message as it looks a bit more competetive but todays dross doesnt appeal much at all. I have tried by best to come up with something in the 13f handicap at 2.30pm and that is previewed later. The
rest of the card is just small field tactical races that will be held hostage to the pace of the race and jockeyship and any angles I find will be trumped by those issues.

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C H E P S T O W

* Preview later in the 2.45pm

Not an easy card at Chepstow. Decided to preview one race
at 2.45pm but I wouldnt have confidence in any of the other races. I did not have good enough angles to sort out the Maiden Hurdle at 1.40pm. The Mares Novice Chase looks at the mercy of Phardessa. I dare not do the next race as its a Vetarans Chase and there hasnt been enough similar races run before and seven runners makes it all the less appealing.

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K E M P T O N

* Preview later in the 1.30pm
* Preview later in the 2.05pm
* Preview later in the 3.10pm

Good card at Kempton and plan to have a good look at some
races here. I decided to Preview three races here as it looks a strong card. I Cant do much with the Pendil Novice Chase I suppose it would have to be Herecomesthetruth as he comes from the best trial race and Scilly Isle Chase winners like him were 2-2 coming into this race. I have to just mention the Bumper at 4.50 as J P MAGNIER the son of John Magnier has come over for just one ride on BELLVANO for Nicky Henderson. JP MAGNIER doesnt come over here because he likes England. He wouldnt entertain coming over from Ireland for just one ride if it wasnt a good thing. Look at the full record of JP MAGNIER's rides in England. If you ignore the 6 rides he has had at the Cheltenham festival as that is ridiculously competetive its Fascinating.

* JP Magniers rides in England outside the Cheltenham festival
* Magnier has had 18 rides in England
* 11 of these horses have won
* He has a 3-4 record for Nicky Henderson
* With horses that had under 3 runs he is 8-13
* When on a 1st or 2nd favourite is 11 wins from 13 rides
* Magnier has probably been promised a winner here
* Statistically he is very solid with 1 run 1 win
* BELLVANO would have to be the selection
* BELLVANO looks great for an each way double


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T O D A Y ' S P R E V I E W S



KEMPTON 1.30

RACING & FOOTBALL OUTLOOK HANDICAP HURDLE
(CLASS 3) (4yo+,0-135) 2m5f

4/1 Thundering Star, 5/1 Dansimar, 8/1 Honest John, 8/1 King Jack, 8/1 Lady Pilot, 10/1 Aimigayle, 10/1 Bormo, 12/1 Dusky Lord, 12/1 Gold Gun, 12/1 I Have Dreamed, 14/1 Royals Darling, 14/1 Shannon Springs, 20/1 Eleazar, 20/1 Wun Chai, 25/1 Khumbu.

* This is a 2m 5f Handicap Hurdle
* There has been 16 renewals of this race
* There has been 85 similar races elsewhere at 2m 5f
* It's been dominated by lightly raced Hurdlers
* Horses that ran 13 or more times before had a 1-71 record.
* ROYALS DARLING - AIMIGAYLE fail that
* GOLD GUN - SHANNON SPRINGS - WUN CHAI also fail that
* Every past winner had at least 4 career starts (others 0-12)
* THUNDERING STAR fails that and has just 3 career runs
* Recent winners had 10 7 9 9 7 17 6 9 5 9 10 9 6 hurdle runs
* THUNDERING STAR has had 2 fewer than all of these
* THUNDERING STAR also lacks handicap experience
* Recent winners had 1 3 3 3 12 4 6 0 4 4 4 1 handicap starts
* There has been 85 handicap hurdles in Febuary at 2m 5f
* 11 came from Novice Hurdles
* Only 3 came from Novice Hurdles short of 19f
* None of these had under 5 career starts
* All 12 were beaten and that included several favourites
* Thats why THUNDERING STAR is opposed
* Horses aged 9 or more had a 0-39 record in this race
* DUSKY LORD has that to overcome
* ELEAZAR -KHUMBU have been absent too long
* No past winner dropped from over 3 miles before
* HONEST JOHN fails that
* I looked at 85 other races in this class
* Horses that came from over 3 miles won just 6
* Those with under 9 career starts were 0-32
* HONEST JOHN fails that so I have to chuck him out
* LADY PILOT is a Mare with a 57 day absence
* I looked at the 8 mares that won in the 85 other races
* None of these defied a months absence (0-35)
* LADY PILOT is rejected
* Horses that ran within 15 days were 0-35 in this race
* DANSIMAR fails that and she is a problem
* I have found Mares that had similar profiles
* Happpy to ignore the fact horses within 15 days are 0-35
* What I dont like are two things about DANSIMAR
* Dislike that no mare won coming from a "Mares" race
* It would also worry me just 1 mare had over 11st 3lbs
* DANSIMAR has 11st 9lbs and thats a lot for a mare
* I am going to oppose DANSIMAR

SHORTLIST

BORMO - KING JACK

BORNO has a very good profile. Very similar to the
2005-2007 winners as a 5 year old with 7-8 past runs
and coming up in distance. KING JACK also comes out
very nicely as well and could win this

BORMO may be well handicapped of 122. He was a horse
described by Alan King as weak and still growing last season. He had a 4-3-3-2 record in Novice Hurdles but he did split Ashkazar and Grand Schlem in a Novice Hurdle last Febuary. That looks interesting form because of subsequent events. Ashkazar went and won the Imperial Cup off 135 and then finished 2nd at the Cheltenham Festival and is now just won a Grade 2 race and looks a champion hurdle outsider. The 3rd that day Grand Schlem who was behind BORMO ran 2nd in a Grade 2 hurdle and then came 3rd at Cheltenham just behind Ashkazaar in the Fred Winter. That suggests to be BORMO could be well treated off 122. BORMO was beaten first time out at Sandown but that was his first handicap and his seasonal debut and the ground may have been too soft. He ran a lot better last time when second at Taunton. He has a similar profile to many past winners and he looks worth a bet

SELECTION - BORMO
SAVER - KING JACK

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KEMPTON 2.05

WILLIAMHILL.COM DOVECOTE NOVICES' HURDLE
GRADE 2 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m

6/4 Ainama, 4/1 Alfie Flits, 4/1 Dee Ee Williams,
6/1 Conflictofinterest, 7/1 Trenchant, 20/1 Alarazi,
40/1 Rock 'N' Roller, 66/1 Russian Epic.

The Dovecots is a Grade 2 Novice hurdle and we have
had 12 renewals of this race. Its a class race and I feel
you have to assume the unraced horses cant win so I
oppose Alarazi, Rock 'N' Roller and Russian Epic. I
suppose ALARAZI isnt out of it despite being unraced
as there has been some money for him and he was a
smart Flat Horse. ALARAZI may be worth keeping
back and shortlisting. Perhaps a place only bet.

Last year we backed the winner of this race at 7/1 into
7/2 and the analysis was about opposing a horse in the
race that had just one career start. AINAMA has ran
just once before. Yes he was impressive and yes many
see him as a Supreme Novice Hurdle candidate at the
Cheltenham Festival. This statistic worries me

* Between January and April there has been 57 races
* Thats 57 Grade 1- Grade 2 - Grade 3 hurdle races at 2m
* Horses that had 1 career start were 0-58
* Thats over a 4 month period

AINAMA looks woefully inexperienced to me and I
have to oppose him with one run. He may well win
but he fails a crucial statistic and in a race that has a
nice frame to it surely the each way bet makes most
sense. I feel one of these four is a better bet

ALFIE FLITS - DEE EE WILLIAMS
CONFLICTOFINTEREST - TRENCHANT

ALFIE FLITS has just won at Haydock where he had
DEE EE WILLIAMS back in 4th. It may be different
today as DEE EE WILLIAMS was favourite that day
and may find track and ground a bit more acceptable
today. CONFLICTOFINTEREST has to be respected
but he was unplaced in an ordinary novice hurdle last
time. I looked at the 57 Graded hurdle races between
January and April. Horses unplaced in a Novice Hurdle
had a 1-61 record and although some horses unplaced
finished closer to the winner than others who were
placed it has to be a big worry and the 118 day break
he has had has to be overcome as well. I feel he has a
profile that causes some concern. The other option
is TRENCHANT. Normally I would take him out as
he comes from a 4yo only juvenile hurdle and has
had only two runs but thats exactly what the 1995
winner of this race (Balanak) did before winning. I
have to therefore consider TRENCHANT. What is a worry is his trainer states his next run is a handicap at Cheltenham and he needs a run to get a handicap mark so he may have other days in mind.

Bearing in mind the above I am going to oppose both
TRENCHANT and CONFLICTOFINTEREST. That leaves me with ALFIE FLITS - DEE EE WILLIAMS and on better ground today I feel the best bet has to be an each way bet on DEE EE WILLIAMS. I am not saying the odds on favourite (Ainama) cant win he probably will but he has a big stat against him and given that there surely has to be better alternative bets in the race and this would be my choice of bet

SELECTION - DEE EE WILLIAMS Each Way 5/1


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LINGFIELD 2.30

JOY SANDERS 50TH BIRTHDAY HANDICAP
(CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-70) 1m5f

9/2 Antillia, 5/1 Wind Flow, 11/2 Red Wine,
11/2 Zalkani, 6/1 Terminate, 8/1 Tyrrells Wood,
12/1 Bell Island, 16/1 Dantari, 20/1 Royal Wedding,
20/1 Tutor, 25/1 Flam, 33/1 Eastwell Smiles, 33/1 Jago,
33/1 Maidanni.

* This is a 13f handicap for horses rated 0-70
* There has been 41 similar races at this time of year
* I am going to take on the favourite ANTILLIA here
* ANTILLIA the favourite worries me
* She is clearly well handicapped
* Judging my money for her last time plenty was expected
* ANTILLIA is a filly with a 33 day break
* She is also inexperienced with only 5 runs
* I looked at fillies with a months absence in many races
* I looked at All similar handicaps over 12f 13f and 14f
* There were 441 similar handicaps between 12f and 14f
* Fillies that were absent a month won just 8 of these
* They had a 8-261 record which isnt very good
* However those with under 9 career starts were 1-83
* That 1-83 record looks worrying and the only winner was 12f
* ANTILLIA has to step down in trip as well
* She also ran like a pig last time and was beaten miles
* Given the odds and her profile I oppose her
* FLAM is out as a filly with an absence
* Several of these dont look fit including these three
* MAIDANNI - DANTARI - JAGO
* EASTWELL SMILES also looks underraced
* I dont feel ROYAL WEDDING is ready to win yet
* I am taking on TYRRELLS WOOD with a 149 day absence
* He comes from hurdles as well and is unsafe
* I dont want BELL ISLAND with 1 run since Septembet
* TUTOR looks underraced to me
* I see one of 4 horses wining this
* ZALKANI - TERMINATE - WIND FLOW - RED WINE
* RED WINE is a 10 yo without a run in 3 weeks
* I would much rather he had a more recenet run
* WIND FLOW comes from a claimer
* Horses doing that were 0-20 in the 41 races
* I would give him a chance but prefer others
* I prefer ZALKANI and TERMINATE in this race

* Win bet on ZALKANI
* Saver bet on TERMINATE

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CHEPSTOW 2.45


TOTEEXACTA HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 3) (4yo+,0-125) 3m

11/2 Bally Conn, 11/2 Before Dark, 7/1 Magnifico, 8/1 Brenin Cwmtudu, 8/1 Evelith Forrest, 8/1 The Wooden Spoon, 9/1 Mr Mackay, 10/1 Cashel Blue, 12/1 Charles Street, 12/1 Macmar, 14/1 Glen Omen, 20/1 On Spec, 25/1 The Hudnalls, 33/1 Silver Snitch, 33/1 Whatadifference.

* This is a 3m handicap hurdle for 0-124 rated horses
* Chepstow has 8 past renewals of this race
* They all fit the same pattern as follows
* They were all unexposed with under 20 runs
* They all had at least 4 career starts
* They all had at least 2 runs that season (others 0-25)
* They were all aged 7 or more (0-14)
* They all ran within 7 weeks
* If that happens again one of these two will win
* BALLY CONN - CASHEL BLUE
* The Chepstow stats are unsafe
* Far too many Gaps in the years the race has been run
* I prefer to look at all similar races elsewhere
* There has been 90 similar races elsewhere in Febuary
* Horses with long absences had a poor record
* I would worry about the seasonal debutants below
* EVELITH FORREST - BEFORE DARK - WHATADIFFERENCE
* EVELITH FORREST may be a special case
* He is lightly raced and has just 5 runs
* What few seasonal debutant winners there were were similar
* They were alll lightly raced
* Well backed - big stable - looks well handicapped
* EVELITH FORREST has to be considered here
* EVELITH FORREST appeals as a saver
* I want to oppose THE WOODEN SPOON
* No horse aged 11 or more had just 1 run that season
* There has been 233 handicap hurdles in Febuary at 21f +
* Thats 233 races in Class 2-3-4-5 over 2m 5f or more
* I looked at 11 year olds that hadnt run in 2 weeks
* THE WOODEN SPOON is 11 with a 56 day break
* Horses aged 11 without a run in 2 weeks were 2-182
* Those with 1 or 2 runs that season were 0-53
* THE WOODEN SPOON fails that and is out
* MACMAR is out as an exposed horse from a chase
* THE HUDNALLS - SILVER SNITCH look opposable
* Neither have achieved enough this season
* I looked at the record of 5 year olds and it was poor
* ON SPEC doesnt appeal as the youngest horse
* GLEN OMEN didnt do enough for me last time
* Exposed horses that come here after a poor run are out
* CHARLES STREET fails that and is out
* Had a look at CASHEL KING and he isnt for me
* He Pulled up last time which I dont really mind
* Its just that he did it too recently
* I would want a longer break after doing that
* In 90 races all 35 that did the same lost
* I cant find a horse like MR MACKAY
* Not with just 3 runs from a maiden hurdle
* I cant find many horses that won down in trip
* BRENIN CWMTUDU attempts that
* I have not found any similar winners to him
* I respect his chance but see him as unsafe
* I looked in 90 races for horses like BALLY CONN
* He comes from a Novice Handicap
* Only 1 of the 90 winners did that which is a poor record
* This is clearly wide open but there is one good profile
* I like the chances of MACNIFICO
* In 90 similar races I looked for the following
* Exposed - Aged 7 + - Recent run - placed last time
* Horses with that profile were 4-14
* MAGNIFICO passes that and has a big chance
* MAGNIFICO does have some concerns
* He has a good record when "Fresh" and will 7 days hurt him
* He is also a horse that likes to lead
* The race may not be run to suit him
* I would still see MAGNIFICO as the best option
* EVELITH FORREST looks the best saver

SELECTION - MAGNIFICO
SAVER - EVELITH FORREST

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KEMPTON 3.10

RACING POST CHASE (HANDICAP)
GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m

4/1 Big Fella Thanks, 10/1 Hold Em, 10/1 Nacarat, 12/1
Fier Normand, 12/1 Possol, 14/1 Conna Castle, 14/1 Fleet
Street, 14/1 Lacdoudal, 14/1 Ungaro, 16/1 Oedipe, 16/1
Silverburn, 20/1 Laskari, 20/1 Piraya, 25/1 Battlecry, 33/1 Endless Power, 33/1 Nozic, 40/1 New Little Bric, 40/1 Stan, 66/1 Billyvoddan, 100/1 Ollie Magern.

The Racing Post Chase is a Graded Chase over 3 miles and
we now have 15 renewals of this race. Some statistics should be able to narrow the field down. You want a horse thats ran over at least 3 miles before. A Guaranteed stayer and horses that prepped over 2m 4f or shorter have poor records so I am against NACARAT who has real stamina issues and also ENDLESS POWER whose up in distance. OLLIE MAGERN is too old. Horses that had just 1 or 2 runs that season had terrible records. only Innox managed it from 49 that tried and that was not run at Kempton and ideally you want more runs this season. Therefore I am against SILVERBURN who may not be at home over this trip. Other underraced horses are BILLYVODDAN- OEDIPE -NEW LITTLE BRICK and LACDOUDAL. You really dont want to be coming into the race having ran poorly. Last time out winners won 11 of the last 15 races and every past winner was 1-2-3-4-5 last time out with just one falling. STAN - NOZIC fail that. Didn't feel BATTLECRY did enough last time. Neither did PIRAYA a horse with too many falls recently. You want a high class and consistent horse thats been running well all year. The Last 13 winners of this race ran 48 seperate times in the season they won. In these 48 races in the season they won - the last 13 winners managed to either Win or Place in a very high 42 out of 48 races. You want consistency here so I am taking on the Irish runner CONNA CASTLE whose hardly placed at all. Its interesting that BIG FELLA THANKS and HOLD EM have had just 5 career races over fences and thats not many. You can argue BIG FELLA THANKS has just 4.5 chase runs as he has fallen before. The lightest raced chaser to win this was
Gloria Victus with just 5 career starts so it has been done but He was "special" and a monster of a horse. The last 13 horses that won this had 7 11 41 18 28 6 6 9 5 13 31 14 22 chase runs. There were a couple with 6 runs and Gloria Victus with 5 but its a big ask. I dont feel HOLD EM will have the class to defy that and he is rated lower than most past winners. I am also opposing BIG FELLA THANKS. Inexperience is one reason. Then you have the price which is short enough anyway and many are raising the fact that all his best form is on a left handed track and Kempton could be an issue for him and he hasnt got round the only time he ran here. I do not think LASKARI has the class or stamina from a sire thats never had a 3m winner and he has been on the go too long for me. FIER NORMAND isnt for me. He has 2 runs this year and he fell in his 3rd start so technically he is underraced this year
and I would be concerned he will be having a Cheltenham "prep" race and Jonjo has never had a horse in this race that could be sighted with binoculars. I am shortlisting these three

UNGARO - POSSOL - FLEET STREET

I dont see why UNGARO cant win. He fell at the second
fence in last years race but is it not interesing that last
year he started only 5/1 yet he carries 13lbs less weight
today. He has prepped in the same race as last year and
I give gim a good chance. I have found a winner that was
similar to POSSOL so he is shortlisted. FLEET STREET
also comes ot nicely statistically. I am going with an e/w
bet on UNGARO in this race

* He loves it here and won a Grade 1 here
* He was half the price in last years race with far more weight
* Last time out he was second to todays favourite
* Big Fella Thanks beat him by 11 lengths
* At Todays weights UNGARO has a much better chance

SELECTION - UNGARO Each Way 12/1


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NEWCASTLE 3.30

TOTESPORT.COM EIDER (A HANDICAP CHASE)
(CLASS 2) (5yo+,0-150) 4m1f

3/1 Jass, 7/1 Iwillrememberyou, 8/1 Merigo, 9/1 Fair Question, 9/1 Morgan Be, 10/1 Chabrimal Minster, 14/1 Minster Shadow, 14/1 Rimsky, 14/1 Stagecoach Diamond, 16/1 Harmony Brig, 16/1 Natiain, 20/1 Toy Gun, 25/1 Pass Me By

I think there are some powerful trends in the Eider Chase and the trends of all similar races at this time of year interest me as well. I would argue that my trends in this race sent yesterday and posted on the message board show why certain horses are opposable. Horses I really dont see winning include NATAIN,CHABRIMAL MINSTER also comes out badly. PASS ME BY looks weak so to does MINSTER SHADOW.

RIMSKY was second in last years race beaten 20 lengths and
statistically his best chance may have gone. He only just fails the most important trends and may have been forgivable but he fails many other angles and its hard to see him as an ideal type and he just has not got the correct profile for me so he is out. I feel that TOY GUN needed more runs this year and another year on his back and no horse managed to bridge the gap in class he has to. He doesnt have the weapons to improve the vast ammount he needs to. STAGECOACH DIAMOND has not won over fences before and he didnt have the profile he would need to have for me to overlook that fact so he is rejected. IWILLREMEMBERYOU is a 1st season chaser and thats a worry as is the fact he has less chasing and handicap experience than most past winners and these concerns put him out of consideration and off my list. JASS is complicated as he
is really on the borderline of several trends. Look at him in a generous light and you can fancy him a lot yet look at him in a ruthless light and you can argue that he is poor value. JASS does fail a couple of trends and he seems exposed for a young horse but given his profile there is one thing that worries me the most. He is a 7 year old that has to carry 11st 12lbs weight. I looked at the 55 handicaps at this time of year over 3m 7f or more. I looked at the weight that all winners aged 6 - 7 carried.
I found in the 55 races horses aged 6 or 7 carrying 10st 12lbs or more were 0-18 and JASS has 14lbs more than that. I extended the search to all handicap chases between January and March that were over 3m 5f or more. There were 126 of these long distance chases and thats in every Class from Class 3 upwards. Those 126 races show horses aged 6 or 7 carrying 10st 12lbs or more 1-53 and thats a big worry as 13 started favourite and 10 started 2nd
favourite. The only "Younger" horse that carried a big weight in long distance chases at this time of year was EUDIPE who won the Peter Cazalet Memorial back in 1999 at Sandown and who was a top class chaser. 11st 12lbs worries me a lot for JASS and why he isnt on my shortlist. Bear in mind he is also a 1st season chaser and has fallen twice in his short chase career already.


SHORTLIST

MERIGO - MORGAN BE - FAIR QUESTION - HARMONY BRIG

FAIR QUESTION just makes the shortlist. He is an 11 year old and ideally a bit too old and exposed but the fact he won last time out exploiting a generous handicap mark. He has the class to win for sure but I do wonder whether he wouldnt be best conceeding weight to inferior horses in lower class races. Quite whether he can cope with 4 miles here on bad ground I dont know and its worth remembering he's not completed in 4 of his 9 chase runs.

HARMONY BRIG has not got a straight forward profile and no
past winners came from hurdles or from 20f or shorter and I feel thats his biggest problem. His high weight doesnt worry me as 3 of the last 4 winners carried the same weight as him. I just wish he had prepped over further. That said he loves it here and won the Rehearsal Chase here. He should relish the step up in distance and if I am right in Opposing some of these like Jass and Natian then HARMONG BRIG only has a 0-125 class field to beat. Its
a weak Eider and he is very interesting

MERIGO sails through my angles and is interesting as a second season chaser. He has 7 career chase runs but the last few that won this had 13-21-8-7-13-4-15-16 previous chase runs and as you can see several fit into his profile. I would rather that he had not prepped over hurdles but I can live with it. He passes all other angles I can throw at him and he deserves serious thought

MORGAN BE is also statistically perfect and all 5 of his wins have been at Ayr so whether he handles this track or not is a question mark. He had been off some time with a Fractured Pelvis but since his return he has run 3 solid races winning the latest of these last time out. He is a big runner statistically

I am going to assume FAIR QUESTION does have the heart
and take him out. The distance takes some getting and he
may not cope. I like MERIGO and HARMONY BRIG best
and feel the best options is as follows.

SELECTION - MERIGO
SAVER - HARMONY BRIG

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NEWCASTLE 4.00

TOTEEXACTA NOVICES' HURDLE (CLASS 4) (4yo+) 2m

11/8 Best Lover, 9/4 Gilsland, 9/2 Catch Bob, 12/1 Lady Wright, 16/1 Magellan Straits, 20/1 Anay Car, 25/1 Wheyaye, 33/1 Pete, 50/1 Rennington Blue, 50/1 Saluscraggie, 66/1 Byron Bay.

SELECTION - CATCH BOB

* This is a 2m Novice Hurdle
* We have had 186 similar races at this time of year since 1994
* There looks to be three main runners
* I want to oppose BEST LOVER the favourite
* The reason is he is a 7 year old with just 1 career start
* In 186 races horses aged 7 with under 2 runs struggled
* They had a poor 2-146 record
* When running within 7 weeks they were 0-33
* None were beaten last time out as BEST LOVER was (0-71)
* All 54 that came from Hurdles last time out lost
* These looks worrying trends for BEST LOVER
* I looked at all Febuary Novice Hurdles at 2m 5f or shorter
* There were 488 of these races
* Horses aged 7 + with under 2 career starts also struggled
* They had a poor 3-351 record a strike rate of only 0.85%
* Those like BEST LOVER with 1 race were 1-187
* When running within 7 weeks they were 0-90
* When beaten last time they were 0-175
* When coming from Hurdles they were 0-125
* BEST LOVER doesnt look good on these trends
* Ideally a 7 year old will want more runs
* He may go and win and stats can be broken
* However he looks very opposable at a short price
* MAGELLAN STRAITS doesnt appeal as the selection
* He looks held by CATCH BOB in this race
* LADY WRIGHT is taken out as a mare well beaten last time
* I have to see GILSLAND and CATCH BOB as the big runners
* GILSLAND has ran twice before but never placed
* That has to be a concern
* There has been 186 races at this time of year
* I looked at horses with 2 runs that had never placed in either
* The record was a poor 4-345 and thats a concern
* None were aged 6 or more as he is
* Those aged 6 as GILSLAND is were 0-98
* Given the profile of these I have to prefer CATCH BOB
* He has had 4 runs now and has the edge in experience
* He ran in a Bumper in October but his Saddle Slipped
* He then went to Hexham in a Novice Hurdle
* He was going well that day but Fell 3 hurdles out
* CATCH BOB was booked for at least a place that day
* Last time out I gave him the benefit of the doubt
* Selected him to win a Novice at 12/1 at Sedgefield
* He ran well that day and came second
* He wasnt a cheap horse bought last year at 80k
* Given the profile of these runners I can bet just one
* CATCH BOB is the selection

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