No Account Bet

1 Selection

Split Stake Bet

HAMILTON 4.40

MR LU 12/1

ATLANTIC BEACH 7/4

Only 1 selection today. I want to go with a split stake
bet today. That is Betting two horses in the same race
with the same stake. Have half your stake on MR LU
around 12/1 today and the other half of your stake on
ATLANTIC BEACH around 7/4. If the shorter priced
horse wins then it will be no more than a tiny profit. I
want to go this way as ATLANTIC BEACH could be far more progressive and able to outclass these and he needs to be on side. If MR LU wins there is more than a good profit to be had. Unusual bet for us but worth it.

The decision to take things slowly on both Monday and
Tuesday gathering Nuts for later in the week will hopefully pay off tomorrow. Its should be a strong message. There could be account bets and I have a strong Epsom bet to go and I might well make that a Full bet. We will soon see if that has been a sensible strategy. Todays message is reasonably long. Plenty to chew over but only the one race gives me the right feeling and thats a split stake bet.


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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G


Two selections and One winner. We started with the loser
first and TRI NATIONS. He ran reasonably well and it was
not stamina that beat him just better horses. Glad to escape that annoying feeling I would have got had I gone each way but it made little difference and he didnt look like winning. SALEROSA put matters right and won I believe through a superior level of fitness. Had you got the early 2/1 then its a winning day. Had you taken the later prices then it was no more than a tiny profit on the day. Overall it was not too bad an effort and there were not many mistakes.


N A T I O N A L H U N T

No luck yesterday with the sole National Hunt preview and I
dont want to spend too much time here today. Not a detailed
preview for just one selection. Then the message chats through Hamilton and then Lingfield. Only one race at Sandown as I didnt like the card.


UTTOXETER

In the 5.50 Novice Hurdle ANY GIVEN DAY is a 4 year old
that has 1 run and 1 win.I looked at all similar races for horses like him and found a superb 14-27 record. Over half that tried to win again did so and that 14-27 record included 7 seconds and at 2 mile trips like this there was a 7-10 record. I would have to prefer ANY GIVEN DAY in this race.


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H A M I L T O N


Lot of races I cant shed any real light on today. The opening 2.10pm Maiden race is not as it seems. Its an Auction race in Name but because of the runners its more an ordinary maiden to be honest. Speculative attempt at a guess of the winner and ROCK OF LOVE would be the one. Could be an each way double horse which would protect you from any big improvers.


The Claimer at 2.40 over 6 furlongs is quite interesting. There are just 4 past renewals and these 4 races are the only Claiming races over this distance for horses aged just 3 or 4. Former Account Bet LEGAL EAGLE obviously has a great chance but at the weights AAHAYGIRL does come out as the better horse. Hard to know if AAHAYGIRL has trained on or not. She has certanly been so far behind last years form it would be a concern. That said she is getting lumps of weight and we know two of the four winners of this race were 3yo Fillies that came from Claimers. We know that
past Listed and Group form is an excellent sign. I dont want to all of a sudden latch on to a filly that hasnt trained on but what I do see in AAHAYGIRL's profile is enough to stop me betting LEGAL EAGLE at a short price. DIGIT is weak statistically. I dont want 5f horses like SMELLY CAT -WALTZING BUDDY. It may well be a match. The value looks to be AAHAYGIRL and First time blinkers could help. Given the odds and despite the 7 runners I would reject LEGAL EAGLE Around 4/7 and chance an each way bet on AAHAYGIRL around 9/2.


I want to skip the next two handicaps at Hamilton as I dont feel I have good enough angles and to do them properly would take too much time with little hope of a strong conclusion.


HAMILTON 4.10

SAM COLLINGWOOD-CAMERON HANDICAP
(CLASS 6) (3yo,0-65) 1m3f16y

5/2 New Tricks, 7/2 Blackstone Vegas, 5/1 Step Fast,
9/1 Annes Sound, 9/1 Sydney Cove, 10/1 Strevelyn,
10/1 Tillietudlem, 12/1 Knock Three Times, 20/1 Ernies Keep.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 11f for 0-63 rated horses
* There are 100 Similar Handicaps in June
* Thats 100 races between 10.5f and 12f in Class 5 and Class 6
* TILLIETUDLEM has 1 this year and is absent 108 days
* I cant find a similar winner in 100 races so he is out
* Horses that come from 8f races do not score well
* Those that ran within the last 2 weeks were 0-58
* SYDNEY COVE fails that and I couldnt find a similar winner
* STREVELYN also fails that and makes no appeal
* Not with 1 run this year and hammered in that
* He also must have a big stamina doubt
* KNOCK THREE TIMES is a filly from a maiden
* Few of these won and only one won with 4 or more runs
* None were beaten as far as she was last time
* I thought she had an unsafe look to her
* ANNES SOUND is another filly from a maiden
* I see no reason to bet her
* It doesnt give confidence that she was 200/1 last time
* ERNIES KEEP comes from a seller a poor sign
* He has a 40 day break and just two runs that year
* I looked at horses with under 3 runs that year and a break
* None managed it when as exposed as he is
* STEP FAST comes from a Conditions race a worry
* Only 4 of the 100 winners managed that
* None came from one over 11f or more as he does
* None did it as inexperienced as he is
* None did it with under 3 runs that year
* I think one of two horses will win this
* BLACKSTONE VEGAS - NEW TRICKS
* BLACKSTONE VEGAS looks a potential winner
* Worth remembering he was a very expensive horse
* Crossed my mind whether he may need 1 more run
* He ran well last time but had to work hard before fading
* NEW TRICKS ran well last time over 14f
* There has been horses dropping from 14f to 11f
* He ought to appreciate the trip and looks a huge runner

SELECTION - NEW TRICKS




HAMILTON 4.40

SODEXO STOP HUNGER CHARITY HANDICAP
(CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-70) 6f5y

2/1 Atlantic Beach, 5/2 Tangerine Trees, 5/1 Maison Dieu,
9/1 Wiltshire, 12/1 Mr Lu, 12/1 Ride A White Swan, 12/1
The Salwick Flyer, 25/1 Rainbow Bay, 33/1 Obe One.


This is a 6f Handicap for 0-69 rated horses. I would have
prefered a few more negatives than there actually are in a
race like this. There has been 211 similar races to this race in June. OBE ONE looks vey opposable. None of the 211
winners came via an 8f selling race and thats a weak profile so RIDE A WHITE SWAN has to go. Only 5 of the 211 to win were seasonal debutants and those that tried when they were exposed with 21 or more career starts had a 0-51 record so THE SALWICK FLYER has to go. RAINBOW BAY is
coming from a Claimer over 6f. In 211 races there were seven winners doing this but those with under 5 runs that season had a 0-46 record and he fails that and doesnt appeal. There is no statistical reason why WILTSHIRE can't win but he is modest and very exposed and you would worry that he is vulnerable to improvers. He would not be my first choice in this. I think one of the following 4 horses will win

TANGERINE TREES - ATLANTIC BEACH
MAISON DIEU - MR LU

There isnt much I can say about TANGERINE TREES and
MAISON DIEU who were 2nd and 3rd in the same race last
time. Both are fine statistically. So to is ATLANTIC BEACH
and I like the fact he is a 69 rated horse facing a 0-63 handicap. He looks progressive and I would want him in my Top two. I like MR LU a great deal. This is a 0-69 for him. He comes from a better class race over 7 furlongs. He hit the front last time and looked like he had won the race but looked like he failed to stay. His form suggests he does stay 7f but he ran as if he wanted 6f and this stiff 6f should be perfect. On Video evidence and the
form of his last run I think MR LU is very interesting here.

SELECTION - MR LU
SAVER - ATLANTIC BEACH


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L I N G F I E L D


Mixed Sand and Grass card at Lingfield. The first half of the card is on the Sand and the second half on the Grass. The selling race that opens the card has seen non runners. Unbelievably there are only 7 of these races in June so we dont have a massive sample size to draw any conclusions from.NORTHERN DESERT is a 10 year old absent 97 days. I could not have that even with the fact his two market rivals are non runners. I would be looking at an each way alternative. HATMAN JACK may be one option.


I would have thought SWILLY FERRY was the one to beat in the Maiden race at 2.50 having been placed in a Brocklesby and having started odds on favourite for the Chester May meeting maiden. Not much I can say about the opposition but he looks hard to oppose. I would want to go down the each way double route with him. These types usually run very well and go close but they are vulnerable to
any newcomers or darker types. SILLY FERRY is best placed in an each way double.


We have a Fillies handicap at 3.20. June has seen 26 of these 6f Fillies races. Its not a big sample size. If the results from 26 races can be taken on trust then we should oppose SPRING GREEN who has to come from a 5f maiden. Only 4 of the 26 winners came from a 5f race and those with under seven runs like her were 0-31. SPRING GREEN has only ran 3 times before. No horse came from a 5f maiden as she does and interesting in the 26 races horses that
came into these races having won last time out had a 0-21 record. SPRING GREEN looks the wrong type. PRINCESS ZOHRA does not appeal from 8f. I wasnt impressed with LEADENHALL LASS or MERRY DIVA as the only horses with 1 run that season and also with 4 week absences. There is strength in depth in the race. The key issue will be how the once races NIGHT AFFAIR gets on. She has had just one race. She won that last year. There has not been a horse in the 26 races that had just one run before so statistically I cant rate her. That said I looked at all Fillies Handicaps in June for once raced horses like her. It was quite interesting that there were only 2 horses like NIGHT AFFAIR and both Won. Admittedly they were at 9 10f
trips but they won and both carried big weights as she does. NIGHT AFFAIR has a 0-74 to beat and you wouldnt rule her out of being better class than that. BEA MENACE looks fine. She has a decent chance in this with a recent run but without evidence of that I couldnt go hard. I think there's a chance NIGHT AFFAIR will outclass them. Gut feeling is that it is too strong a race to be confident in.


The Fillies Maiden at 3.50 is back on the grass. The 7 renewals suggest you want to avoid older horses and unraced horses as none of the past renewals went to these types. That doesnt help much as few fancied runners are either. FLAME OF GIBRALTAR does look the one and you would expect her to improve past the thrice raced CHICORA but I dont know how stall one will help or hurt her. The "circumstantial" evidence suggests a high draw is desireable over this Course and Distance much as the last winner over it was Drawn 1 admittedly in a smaller field. I would rather have a place bet on something like CHICORA than a win bet on the favourite as you are getting roughly similar odds yet have 3 places to cushion you and she looks better drawn anyway. I'd be place only Chicora.


I wouldnt want to oppose JAFARU in the 4.20pm Handicap as
he looks very well handicapped. He won last time out and there is no real reason why he shouldnt again. He is too short for me in such a big field but I dont see many you can oppose him with. I wouldnt want a 10 year old like HATHAAL hammered recently over hurdles in his first run since 2007. He shouldnt be fit enough and I would also question the fitness of COMPTON CHARLIE and LOOKS THE BUSINESS. BARBIROLLO was well behind JAFARU last time out. I dont see why RIDGETIME ANNA should be backed. DR MCFAB has a very wide draw. I would struggle to find one to beat JAFARU but equallly I wouldnt bet him at a short price with 15 runners. CASABLANCA MINX would be the horse I think may run the favourite close.


I thought the last race was too difficult. Too many runners for a start. I wouldnt want ROCKY HEIGHTS coming from a maiden as since 1998 these horses have miserable records and those like him beaten 10+ lengths last time had a 1-168 record. For the same reasons PREMIER SUPERSTAR is out. I didnt want to get too embroiled in the race but would oppose that pair. It's wide open though. EIGHTDAYSAWEEK could run well and I couldnt rule out ROYAL MAX either first time out. He came out well.

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S A N D O W N

Hated the Sandown card this evening and didnt feel I could do a good enough preview. The only race I did like was the 8.55pm

SANDOWN 8.55

GRAB A FREE BET WITH EXTRABET.COM
HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (4yo+,0-80) 1m2f7y

4/1 Kidlat, 9/2 Cosmea, 13/2 Summer Winds, 7/1 Baylini,
8/1 Bustan, 9/1 La Rosa Nostra, 10/1 Basra, 14/1 Barliffey, 14/1 Gallego, 16/1 Northern Spy, Shavansky, 20/1 Alfie Tupper.

There has been 183 similar races at this time of year. In these 183 races Fillies that hadnt run within the past month won just one race in a 1-64 record. Thats why I would oppose COSMEA who hasnt run in 103 days and I didnt think she was that well handicapped anyway. NORTHERN SPY didnt do enough last time. BUSTAN has to go as no horse as old as him came up in distance to win and no horse aged 6 or more managed it with less than three runs that year. He is too old. Seasonal Debutant runners aged 4 are stronbg with very few races but score badly when having 4 or more runs and that takes out BARLIFFEY. I feel SHAVANSKY has a stiff mark and I wouldnt choose him to overcome that first time out. ALFIE TUPPER has only had 1 run this season and well beaten in that and none of the 183 winners were like him and he shouldnt win. Statistically the winner should come from the other half dozen runners. I dont see any reason why any of the six shouldnt win but if I had to
pick two it would be SUMMER WINDS and KIDLAT and thats because they are 4 year olds that won last time out. If
you take the 183 winners and look at 4 year olds that won a
handicap last time out with 1-2-3-4 runs that season had a
pretty solid 12-28 record. SUMMER WINDS fits that and
I would just shade it to him over Kidlat and La Rosa Nostra.

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