No Account Bet

No Selections

No Bets today and I am throwing in a Dud message.
It was pretty clear last night that it was not a day to
offer us much. Rather than force something or try and
open up races with poor angles I decided to spend a
bit more time on the weekend cards. The Flat is Back
tomorrow and it is welcomes with open arms.

If anyone wants a bet today I think my strategy in the
3.45 at Southwell is your best chance. That involves a
win bet and a place bet. This is not a good day though
and as a message its impotent and toothless. I have
put some statistics for the Lincoln Handicap which runs
tomorrow at Doncaster at the bottom of the message
to reduce congestion in Saturday's mail.


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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G


Just one selection yesterday and an easy winner with PTERODACTYL winning 14 lengths. Shame the Starting Price was as short as 5/4 but there was plenty of 7/4 this morning and most people should have got a better price. No more than a nice Confidence Booster for the weekend.


Tommorrow the Flat starts and I will be motivated
far more than I am today. I have been struggling to
get excited this week about the racing. Not sure if
its me or if its just poor cards but it is a miserable
Friday set of cards. There is no history to either of
the National Hunt meeting. The All weather cards
look depressing and I am willing the Sand and the
Jumps away at the moment as I want the Flat now
to take priority in the messages.



S O U T H W E L L


I didnt fancy the opening race. I ran some trends in
the race and got a shortlist of four horses but had no
strong opinion about which should win over another.
Looks probably just a bit too hard but my shortlist is
TRI CHARA - BALLYCROY BOY - CAPE OF STORMS and HAMAASY and I'll let you decide of your betting.



SOUTHWELL 2.35

MEMBERSHIP AT SOUTHWELL GOLF CLUB
HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (4yo+,0-60) 5f


7/2 Mujma, 9/2 Little Eden, 5/1 Argentine
7/1 Handsinthemist, 8/1 Rocketball, 9/1 Decider
9/1 Spirit Of Coniston, 10/1 Whozart 14/1 Tenacious
20/1 Trinculo.


This is a 5f handicap for 0-60 rated horses. Southwell's
strong draw bias away from high numbers continues
and almost every handicap here goes to a horse that's
drawn 1-2-3-4-5-6. The high draws are disadvantaged
and dont seem to get into the race because of the way
the track Harrows the ground. It would take either an
exceptional ride or performance to win over 5f here
from a high draw so I would oppose ARGENTINE and
DECIDER drawn 9 and 10. There's been 111 of these
5f Handicaps on Sand between January and April. If
you look at horses with under 5 career starts you find
a 0-27 record. LITTLE EDEN has ran just twice. That is
a concern and I couldnt have him especially as none
of the 111 winners came from a 3yo handicap as He
does and his 329 day absence wont help. In the 111
races horses absent 4 months or more were 1-92 and
that doesnt offer any encouragement for horses that
have similar profiles to LITTLE EDEN. I would also
oppose TENACIOUS with a long absence. I wouldnt
want TRINCULO at this trip. HANDSINTHEMIST is
a filly that comes from a seller and No filly won a
similar race doing that and as a filly with just one
race since last September I would oppose her. You
can argue ROCKETBALL is capable of winning this
race but Stall 8 isnt a good draw and it does put me
off. I would shortlist SPIRIT OF CONISTON as he
should be very fit now and getting placed last time
over this Course and Distance from stall 12 was a
big run. WHOZART has to be shortlisted as well
and I have found similar winners to him. Both of
these have chances but MUJMA was impressive in
winning at Lingfield last time and has to be a huge
player considering he is proven on the surface.

SELECTION

Win Bet on MUJMA
Place Bet on WHOZART


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The Claiming race at 3.10 looks trappy as all Five runners have a similar rating. CITY STABLE has had just 1 run since September and looks far from sure to be fit. I wouldnt be sure RUSSIAN INVADER is at peak either as he hasnt had much racing this year and looks like he could do with another run. MY FRIEND FRITZ is a 9yo absent over a month so he would not be my choice either. NAWAMEES and EDAS stood out but with EDAS coming from a hurdle race and hard to predict its not a race I can finalise with any confidence. Given all the issues I would argue NAWAMEES might be the one.


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SOUTHWELL 3.45

PLAY GOLF AT SOUTHWELL GOLF CLUB
MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (3yo+) 1m4f


11/8 Fin Vin De Leu, 4/1 Augusta Gold, 11/2 Miss Keck,
6/1 Dollar Express, 10/1 Thirtyfourthstreet, 12/1 Spares
And Repairs, 25/1 My Mate Granite, 33/1 Adare, 33/1
Furmagiatt, 66/1 Monte Pattino.


This is a Maiden race over 12 furlongs. There are four
rank outsiders impossible to fancy. I think this is only
down to a small number of runners. I expect that a 3
year old will win. I thought DOLLAR EXPRESS had a
strong profile from a 3yo handicap and he would be
close to the top of my list. I'd much rather have him
than take a horse beaten in a Claimer last time like
AUGUSTA GOLD. The odd horse won maidens doing this but none were 3 year olds like him and none had so few runs as him or went up in distance. Its not the best of signs that a 3 year old with 5 career runs like him has already spent two races in Claiming races and There has to be limitations to him. I am finding it hard to fancy either THIRTYFOURTHSTREET or MISS KECK as older fillies. They ran in the same race last time. THIRTYFOURTHSTREET is rated 55
and that was after being raised 13lbs. That rating of 55 is quite low when you consider that she has to conceded 15lbs to the 3 year olds. If she runs to her rating of 55 then the 3 year olds getting 15lbs would only need to run to over 40 to win and as we know the 3 year olds are all rated 63 71 73 . So you have to see why THIRTYFOURTHSTREET looks vulnerable today and if she is then surely MISS KECK has to be as well as she finished behind her last time and has to concede 17lbs weight for age. Staying with older
horses and weight for age SPARES AND REPAIRS looks to have a difficult task. He is rated 52 and is the same boat as the other older horses conceeding lumps of weight in his case 22lbs to the 3 year olds.

The main dangers I can see to DOLLAR EXPRESS winning are either not staying 12f or the favourite FIN VIN DE LEU who steps up from a Mile to 12f. I think DOLLAR EXPRESS will stay well enough to at least place in this race much as he isnt the most straight forward horse but I dont know if he will be up to winning over this track against what looks
like a solid favourite in FIN VIN DE LEU. I think there are two bets to be had in this race and I'd argue there is a strong chance that both bets will collect. I find it hard to see how money can be lost with this strategy. It would be a surprise anyway

Win Bet on FIN VIN DE LEU 5/4
Place Bet on DOLLAR EXPRESS 4/5

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I didnt think I had the weapons to open up the 8f
handicap at 4.20pm. It looked too competetive. The
interesting thing about the race will be whether
the apparantly well fancied Smooth Sovereign can
beat some stats against him in this race. He is well
backed but has just 3 career starts. In 290 similar
races horses with 3 runs were 0-53 and I didnt think
he had a good profile because of that. I'd be opposing
him myself. I wouldnt have wanted Rub Of The Relic
from the draw with a claimer on top either. Few of the
bigger priced ones appealed but it is a race with a lot
of strength in depth and I would rather leave it alone
than get it wrong.


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William Hill Lincoln Statistics


7/2 Expresso Star 7/1 Swop , 8/1 Charm School, 10/1 Huzzah
12/1 Don't Panic 12/1 Flipando, Zaahid , 14/1 Titan Triumph
16/1 Benandonner ,20/1 Blythe Knight, 20/1 Docofthebay
20/1 Mia's Boy, 20/1 Whistledownwind, 20/1 Bolodenka
25/1 Lady Deauville , 25/1 Eva's Request, 25/1 Royal Power
25/1 European Dream , 25/1 Dream Lodge, 25/1 Cobo Bay
25/1 Ace of Hearts, 33/1 Philario.

* The Lincoln is a Class 2 Handicap over a Mile
* There has been 17 renewals since 1992
* There has been 57 similar races elsewhere
* Horses aged 7 or more have a 1-43 record in this race
* Horses aged 7 or more struggled in 57 races
* They had a 2-144 record
* Those aged 7 + with Group form were 0-47
* Those aged 7 or more that were Male were 0-139
* The only runners aged 7 + to be considered are female
* Horses aged 6 or more are just 3-116 in this race
* All 3 were exposed and seasonal debutants
* None of the winners aged 6 + had ran in Group races before (0-42)
* None of the winners aged 6 + had ran this season (0-35)
* They all came from Class 2 handicaps last year
* None of the winners aged 6 + had 9st 1lbs or more (0-33)
* Horses with under 4 runs have a 0-7 record in this race
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs won only 4 of the 17 Lincolns
* Exposed horses won 13 of the 57 other handicaps
* Those with prior Group Class form were just 1-88
* Those dropping from 9f or more were 0-97
* Those with 9st 5lbs or more were 0-101
* Exposed horses winning the Lincoln were all seasonal debutants
* Those that had run this season were 0-59
* Exposed horses aged under 6 were just 1-57
* Exposed horses that ran in Group Class before are 0-34
* Exposed horses that are Male have a poor 2-135 record
* Exposed horses beaten 10 + lengths last time are 0-50
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs carrying 9st 1lbs or more are 0-36
* Horses with 13 + runs that ran on sand this winter were 1-94
* Horses with 13 + runs that ran in Group Class before were 0-71
* Horses with 13 + runs that carried 9st 1lbs or more were 1-63
* Horses with 2 + runs this season were 1-51
* 6 winners came from the All Weather
* 5 of the 6 winners coming from the sand had under 13 starts
* Horses that came from the sand with 13 or more starts were 1-103
* All 41 aged 6 or more that came from the sand lost
* None of the Sand winners lost by 10 + lengths last time (0-37)
* None of the 6 winners from the Sand came from 7f or shorter (0-31)
* Only 1 of the 6 winners from the sand carried 8st 12lbs or more (1-44)
* Looking at the record of 4 year olds in this race
* Horses aged 4 are best with 4-20 starts
* Horses aged 4 already tested in Listed Grade or higher are 1-52
* Horses aged 4 that were absent 7 months or more were 0-18
* Fillies aged 4 are 0-17
* None of the 4 year old winners came from a 3yo handicap (0-18)
* None of the 4 year old winners lost 10 +lengths last time (0-43)
* Looking now at 5 year olds
* Horses aged 5 are best with 9-20 races
* None of the past 5 year old winners had ran in Group class before (0-19)
* Three recent 5yo winners came here having placed on sand within 2 weeks
* The LINCOLN winner has rarely run in Group Class before (1-90)
* In 16 renewals the only past winner that did that was Babodana (2004)
* Those that did run within 15 days had the following traits - They were all:
* Male horses Aged 4 or 5 with 5-20 runs that came Placed from a Class 2 handicap
* They also ran over at least a mile are had under 9st
* If you look at seasonal debutants they won 13 of the 16 renewals
* Seasonal debutants that came from 9f or more had a weak 1-74 record
* Apprentice Jockeys had a 1-64 record in the last 16 years
* In 16 renewals horses beaten 10 lengths or more last time had a 1-119 record
* All 16 winners had at least placed in their last 6 runs and 15 had won
* None of the 16 winners came from a Class 4-5-6 handicap last time out
* Horses from 6f races won in 1994 and 1995
* Both were seasonal debutants aged 4 or 5 and had 8st 6lbs or less
* Horses that came from 9f or more have won 2 recent renewals
* Those with under 9 runs were 0-15
* None of these horses that came from 9f or more had 21 + runs (0-41)
* None of these horses that came from 9f or more were aged 6 or more (0-36)
* Horses that were in the Top 3 of the weights had a 1-54 record
* Horses with 9st 1lbs or more had a 2-91 record
* Both winners had under 21 starts and were seasonal debutants aged 4-5
* If a Horse has come 2nd in their last 6 runs - but not won its a problem
* These types have a 0-71 record
* Horses up in trip with fewer than 13 previous races had a 1-34 record
* No horse won this race coming from a 3 year old handicap before
* Horses with 9st 3lbs or more had a weak 2-74 record
* Horses with 9st 1lbs + with 21 or more races before had a 0-36 record

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