Monday January 12th

No Account Bet

No Selections

Opening message of the week and if the weather is to be
believed we should now have plenty more meetings and
a lot more choice from tomorrow onwards. I took sunday
off to try and freshen up and didnt start working on the
cards today until late last night. The message concentrates
solely on Wolverhampton today with all seven races there
discussed in this message. I dont think its an impossible
card but I dont want to stake a strong bet today having
started work later than normal. Want to use this message
as a Tester to see how I am reading things and crack on
with the rest of the week and hope that the extra choice
will kickstart some stronger and more regular bets. Dont
forget the message time is planned for 11.15am daily now.

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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G


There was no message yesterday so nothing to review. Badly needed to take a day off and it should really have been two days. Went out for the day but also came back and did some work on a few Ante Post races. The Tote Gold Trophy being one of these much as the weights are not yet out for the race. I have been bemoaning choice in the past 2 weeks as much of the National Hunt has been off and we have only
had the sand. For a service that likes to have account bets only at big prices its impossible to find decent odd strong bets on the sand at the moment and it has been a very trying time. Solely on the "numbers" as I said the other day the profit on the bets since the season started
has been great and I could still have 14 consequetive losers and still be in profit - but I understand thats not how it works for most. If there are no selections or bets as there were on Saturday then people tend to go into the unsafer bottom of the message in a quest for any bets
and that comes with a lot more risk. Consequently they can look back after a month and find they have lost plenty when the accounts say they should have banked enough to be well ahead. Thats the nature of what we are dealing with and discipline factors come into things. All I know is that whilst I could argue the selection process this winter has so far been good enough to still be in front - the reality is that I've not had the choice recently to offer you a decent service and I know many of you will be behind on the year and ready for a good run. So Am I.

I am going to leave FAKENHAM today as I am uncomfortable with the card and you have many issues involving which horses are going to be fit having seen the weather hold up many stables. I just dont fancy the card today. From tomorrow the way the weather is shaping up we should have potentially 3-4 meetings a day and a lot more choice
and we can get back on track. In terms of today I want to run through a few things at Wolverhampton and stay there for the analysis.


W O L V E R H A M P T O N


WOLVERHAMPTON 2.10

WOLVERHAMPTON-RACECOURSE.CO.UK
CLAIMING STAKES (CLASS 6) (4yo+) 7f32y

Evs Desert Dreamer, 5/1 Silver Wind, 6/1 Dancing Deano, 6/1 Imprimis Tagula, 12/1 Rustler, 20/1 Dasheena, 20/1 Flagstone, 20/1 Kabis Amigos, 50/1 Bungie, 50/1 Jimmy Dean.

This is a 7f Claimer for all aged horses. DESERT DREAMER is the most likely winner and has about 7lbs in hand at the weights. Thats why he is a short priced favourite. The issue is whether you want to try and take him on with the better priced runners each way. I think DANCING DEANO is more proven and safer over these conditions than SILVER WIND but he also has a lot less back class as well and
thats something SILVER WIND has in his favour. The dilemma is really about can we trust SILVER WIND to run his race here over 7f. He ran reasonably well last time over C+D and that was after an absence so I wouldnt underestimate him. I think there are several betting options in this race. Many would look acceptable. My own preference would be a Split Stake Bet. Have half your stake on a win
bet on DESERT DREAMER and the other half of your stake on a
Place bet on DANCING DEANO. You should just about break level if one of those wins and you could well win twice.

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WOLVERHAMPTON 2.40

WILLIAM HILL JANUARY SALE - NOW ON!
HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo,0-60) 1m1f103y

100/30 Autumn Morning, 4/1 Precocious Air, 6/1 Josiah Bartlett, 8/1 In Step, 8/1 Inca Slew, 10/1 Miss Cameo, 10/1 Sicilian Warrior, 10/1 Vien, 16/1 Rebelwithoutacause, 16/1 Talsarnau, 66/1 Red Eric.

Three year old handicap over 9f. I have looked at all similar races around 8f-10f but 3yo handicaps are one of the weaker races from a stats point of view. Probably would have taken MISS CAMEO away from consideration as a lightly raced filly up 2.5f in distance. I would probably have ignored PRECOCIOUS AIR another filly up in trip from 7f. Statistically I should not expect a lightly raced
filly like IN STEP to recover from a very heavy defeat so I am also going to overlook her. JOSIAH BARTLETT may be exposed to be overcoming a heavy defeat as well and he isnt for me. Dont fancy TALSARNAU or the two outsiders. I suppose this means I feel the winner will come from one of the following 4 horses - Autumn Morning - Inca Slew -Sicilian Warrior -Vien. I would be inclined to overlook the favourite AUTUMN MORNING as I dont want a horse drawn one here as recent results suggest to me thats the weakest draw. Therefore my shortlist for a tough race would be any from 3 horses all 9/1 and over. These three are -

INCA SLEW - SICILIAN WARRIOR - VIEN


SELECTION - INCA SLEW each way

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WOLVERHAMPTON 3.10

HOTEL & CONFERENCING AT WOLVERHAMPTON
HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo,0-55)5f216y

2/1 Itsher, 4/1 Kheley, 5/1 Forever's Girl, 6/1 Downstream, 10/1 Lady Norlela, 10/1 Mean Mr Mustard, 12/1 Kina Jazz, 20/1 Royal Mischief, 25/1 Multi Tasker.

Another nasty 3yo handicap and worth reinforcing that these
3yo only handicaps dont offer much statistically. There has
been 68 of these races. Filies with 3 runs had a 0-33 record so KINA JAZZ and DOWNSTREAM are rejected. I would
take out LADY NORLELA with an absence. I dont want a
filly from a big defeat so ROYAL MISCHIEF is out. I dont
want MULTI TASKER down over 2f in distance and with
an absence. I dont want MEAN MR MUSTARD absent a long time and coming up in distance. In the 68 races I had a look at horses from 3yo sellers and found a 0-52 record so I will take out KHELEY. I think this is a two horse race
statistically between ITSHER and FOREVERS GIRL and
I suggest and each way bet on FOREVER'S GIRL

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WOLVERHAMPTON 3.40

SPONSOR A RACE BY CALLING 01902 390009
CLAIMING STAKES (CLASS 6) (3yo) 1m141y

9/4 Double Act, 7/2 Mytivil, 5/1 Hold The Bucks, 5/1
Mullitovermaurice, 8/1 Betws Y Coed, 8/1 Common Diva,
14/1 Turn To Dreams.

This is a 3yo claiming race and we have had 77 similar races around this trip. I cant find a filly that came from a 7f race with under 5 runs so MYTIVIL with two runs doesnt look a horse I could bet. The rest of these all look reasonably ok statistically. They all have recent runs - none come here with a big defeat or a step up in trip and none look inexperienced and with 7 runners spoiling each way options it looks quite an unnatractive little race. MULLITOVERMAURICE did not come out that well. I cant even rule out the bottom 3 in the weights all at 16/1 and over statistically so It looks a dangerous little race. If I had to select one here the powerfull
connections of DOUBLE ACT and the progressive form he
is showing just make me feel he could outclass these and he
would be my choice in the race.

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WOLVERHAMPTON 4.10

WILLIAM HILL JANUARY SALE - BETTER ODDS!
HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo,0-75) 1m141y

4/6 Petrovsky, 7/4 Luckier, 12/1 Helpmeronda, 14/1 Inthawai

There are only 4 runners in this 3yo handicap. I dont want
a filly up in distance with a long absence so I am inclined to rule out INTHAWAIN and HELPMERONDA the two
bigger priced runners. Statistically LUCKIER is fine despite a step up in trip and maiden form. I dont have an issue with her at all but PETROVSKY also comes here after 3 runs and having won a 2yo maiden as well and as he is a male horse and doesnt have to step up in trip and may have beaten a stronger field in that maiden I just prefer PETROVSKY.

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WOLVERHAMPTON 4.40

WOLVERHAMPTON-RACECOURSE.CO.UK
MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (3yo) 1m1f103y

4/5 Barwell Bridge, 2/1 Misyaar, 7/1 Green Passion, 14/1 Tinshu, 20/1 Spartan Prince, 25/1 Aliybee, 66/1 Fire Me Gun, 66/1 Tiffany Lady, 100/1 Key Of Fortune, 100/1 Spruzzo.

This is an uncompetetive 3yo maiden. BARWELL BRIDGE
brings experience and handicap form and doesnt have to step
up in distance and is also a male. MISYAAR however is a
filly and she is inexperienced and has to step up in trip so you would argue statistically BARWELL BRIDGE is the safest of this pair. That said I have found winners like MISYAAR and Michael Jarvis has bust more stats than any other trainer or at least it feels that way. I certainly wouldnt be making her a negative much as she has the disadvantage and comes here having only run against her own sex. I looked at 238 of these maidens between 8f and 10f. I looked at fillies that came from 7f races within the last 7 weeks as MISYAAR has done. Those that had one run as she does had a 0-51 record and much as I can sing and dance around the race I can not escape the conclusion that lighter raced horses are far better off coming
from long absences and that BARWELL BRIDGE has much
the more attractive profile. Talking of long absences for once raced horses you can not rule out GREEN PASSION who is
coming with 1 run and a long absence. I have found many like him that have won despite an awful debut he had. If there is money for GREEN PASSION I would respect him greatly much as we are all guessing after his poor debut run 170 days ago. I would have to go with BARWELL BRIDGE but as he is from a weaker stable than his two main dangers - and as he is a short priced horse it wouldnt take much for me to jump ship to GREEN PASSION if he was backed. Perhaps the best option is a saver on BARWELL BRIDGE around evens so you cant lose and a similar staked bet on Green Passion if he was backed. Thats one option anyway.

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WOLVERHAMPTON 5.10

WILLIAM HILL JANUARY SALE - WHY BET ELSEWHERE?
HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-75) 1m4f50y

3/1 Mission Control, 5/1 Man Of Gwent, 6/1 El Diego, 8/1
Leslingtaylor, 10/1 Graylyn Ruby, 10/1 Josh You Are, 10/1
Karmest, 10/1 Long Distance, 12/1 Mr Aitch,16/1 Five A Side, 33/1 River Ardeche.

This is a 12f handicap and Wolverhampton have had 99 of
these races at this time of year. I felt both FIVE A SIDE and the outsider RIVER ARDECHE were unlikely winners and I
didnt want KARMEST in a race like this. I'm uncomfortable
with MAN OF GWENT and his 4f step up in trip and I feel
exacly the same with MR AITCH who I felt had a strangely
unconvincing profile. It's very hard to know what to make of LESLINGTAYLOR as he has been handicap chasing and could
be well handicapped back on the flat. I dislike like his lack of sand form though or his age and absence and whilst he cant be ruled out the percentage call may be to look elsewhere. I dont have a big problem statistically with GRAYLYN RUBY and could stick him on a shortlist but I dont really see him as the selection. JOSH YOU ARE is not for me with a long absence. My shortlist would be these three runners -

EL DIEGO - LONG DISTANCE- MISSION CONTROL.

MISSION CONTROL has just won a 3yo handicap but he
is shortlisted as lightly raced as all similar winners were also lightly raced. EL DIEGO has just won a maiden and if you look at horses in the 99 races that did that had a very smart record and those that came from Southwell maidens did best of all. I would see EL DIEGO as a serious runner in this race. You can crab the form of his maiden easily enough but he was an expensive purchase from Aidan O'Briens stable and I dont underestimate him. I've found a few winners with a profile like LONG DISTANCE as well and he may be a serious threat. I decided to go with value and suggest EL DIEGO as a win bet and LONG DISTANCE as a saver.

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