No Account Bet

Selection

Chester 1.45 - VAINGLORY 12/1 Each Way

Chester 2.15 - BUSHMAN 20/1 Each Way

Day two of Chester. I am very keen on the first two races
and have selections in both races at big prices. After that
as each Chester race comes I am losing confidence race by
race. My own interest stops after the second race and the
other previews there are just bottom of the message cannon
fodder and if there are winners there it wont be because I
fancy anything strongly. I want to get out after the opening two races. My selections are very big prices. I could have seen either develop into account bet races with the right circumstances. What has stopped me here was that a track record fell yesterday so it must be fast ground and both my runners may prefer it softer. I think they are still worth betting on this ground but I would have been very bullish if we had seen rain changing the ground and I would have upgraded one of these two an account bet. As it stands I am still going with both as selections much as there has to be a serious chance of both losing at 12/1 and 20/1 and I am reaslistically confident they have chances.

I thought about a 3rd selection at Windsor tonight. I only
like having 3 selections on the day when I have a strong
one that I really believe should win. I dont have that in
hand today so I will leave the two Windsor races I have
alone at the bottom of the message. I wouldnt put you
off following me in these races especially the 6pm and
I am betting in this race as well. In the end I settled on
the two big priced Chester selections. Both come from
the same stable. The way I look at it is that we are not
likely to get a winner but we only need one of these to
place to make sure we cant lose on the day and both of
them do have great profiles and possible chances.


Vainglory is 12/1 Ladbrokes-StanJ -Bet365 -Betfred-Bluesq
Vainglory is 11/1 Corals-Hills- Skybet-VC-Tote
Bushman is 20/1 with all firms except Corals -Hills-Tote

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G


Second day without a bet yesterday and that was a good
policy. I didn't fancy anything that strongly at Chester and just suggested a few small bets through the card. Wehad a profit in the last and broke level in the first but the Four remaining races gave us nothing and overall it was a bland underperforming message soon to be forgotten.



Day 2 of Chester today. I have 5 previews below. To be
honest I love the first two races and feel bets are well
worth having there. The later 3 previews do not impress
me at all and are just bottom of the message cannon fodder
and I wouldnt suggest anyone follow me in there. If I get
a winner in these three races I will be pleasantly surprised.


GOODWOOD


Plan to leave Goodwood alone. There was not much on the
card I could say. I would have suggested Jesse James was a
horse for an each way double in the first race. In the 3.00pm I would have tried to find some value against Superduper as a filly with 1 run this year. I couldnt have The Tatling as a 12 year old or Stand in Flames. No really great negatives in the race more hunches. Two that had reasonable chances were Harlech Castle and Espy. In the last I would have to go with TACTIC who comes from a maiden that always works out and it is doing that already this year. Its not a card I can do a lot with. What looks obvious to me is the each way double. JESSE JAMES in the 2pm. TACTIC in the 4.45pm. An each way double there looks a pretty safe bet with plenty of profit there if both win.



N A T I O N A L H U N T

3 National Hunt Meetings. I've scanned the National Hunt
briefly and have come up very little. If I was doing a race
over hurdles today I think the 3.05 at Newton Abbot is
the one. I would try and oppose the bumper horses such
as Quell The Storm - Scalleys Run - Alesandro Mantegna.
I didnt think Jaunty would have the class. No idea how
Vacario will run after dissapointing last time but I do like the profile of STARLIGHT AIR. The mare has a recent
run and looks reasonably good value at 6/1 each way.

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CHESTER 1.45

BOODLES DIAMOND VELOCITY HANDICAP
(CLASS 2) (4yo+,0-100) 1m2f75y

7/2 Fanjura, 4/1 Kingdom Of Fife, 8/1 Dream Desert, 8/1
Gala Casino Star, 8/1 Press The Button, 9/1 Mull Of Dubai,
10/1 Cheshire Prince, 12/1 Humungous, 12/1 Robby Bobby,
12/1 Vainglory, 14/1 El Dececy, 33/1 Bee Sting.

SELECTION - VAINGLORY E/W 14/1

* This is a 0-99 Handicap over an extended 10 furlongs
* There has been 20 renewals since 1989
* There has been 90 similar races at other tracks since 1994
* FANJURA is drawn 1 but a low draw isnt a big help
* Many high drawn horses have won this race
* FANJURA has only had 6 career starts
* Horses with under 9 runs were just 1-46 in this race
* That winner didnt have to come from 8f as well
* FANJURA looks inexperienced to me for this race
* He comes from 8f and horses doing that in this race were 2-81
* None managed it with under 13 runs (0-30)
* I looked at the 90 similar races for the following type
* Horses Aged 4 that came from 8f races
* Thats exactly what FANJURA attempts
* These 4 year olds had a 3-148 record
* With under 9 career starts they were 0-63
* With under 21 career starts they were just 1-135
* FANJURA looks vulnerable and is opposed
* GALA CASINO STAR is also aged 4 and from 8f
* He has a much safer profile as he has more experience
* Horses aged 4 like him with 13 + runs won Two renewals
* However both winners had more than 1 run this year
* They both had a more recent run
* I looked at his profile in the 90 similar races
* Horses aged 4 coming from 8f with 13 or more runs
* GALA CASINO STAR has that profile
* In 90 other races the record was 3-62
* None of the 3 winners had 1 run that year as he does
* None had more than 2 weeks break (0-30)
* GALA CASINO STAR fails both those angles
* He also has to show he can handle Chester
* All 4 of his wins came on Galloping tracks not sharp ones
* GALA CASINO STAR looks opposable to me
* CHESHIRE PRINCE is exposed and a debutant
* We had just 1 exposed horse win first time in 1991 (1-21)
* He is on a career high mark and all wins later in the year
* Since 1997 there has been 72 Class 2-3 handicaps over 10f
* Exposed seasonal debutants were 0-44 in these races
* You have to go back to the achives for similar winners
* CHESHIRE PRINCE is opposed today
* HUMUNGOUS has the same profile
* He is an exposed deasonal debutant as well
* He fails the same trends as CHESHIRE PRINCE
* HUMUNGOUS has never won from his current mark
* All 4 of his wins came later in the season
* HUMUNGOUS has no Chester form either
* He doesnt appeal to me with his profile
* ROBBY BOBBY has gone off the boil
* He comes here with two heavy defeats
* I looked in 90 races for similart types
* Horses that lost by 10 + lengths over 12f last time
* Horses aged 4 like him were 0-31 doing that
* I cant find a winner similar to ROBBY BOBBY
* ROBBY BOBBY offers too much risk for me
* As I cant find a similar winner he is out
* EL DECECY's last two wins were in Sellers
* All his wins were in Class 5 or lower
* In Class 4 and higher he has a 0-23 record
* EL DECECY looks outclassed in this race
* Being beaten 14 lengths just 5 days ago is another problem
* He was well beaten last time in a 0-85 handicap
* That came after an unimpressive selling win
* EL DECECY really should find this too hot
* BEE STING downgraded stables last Autumn
* Since then his new trainer has sent him hurdling
* He has had 5 unimpressive heavy defeats over hurdles
* He returns back here on a career high mark
* His Current form is open to doubt
* I cant make a strong case form him and he looks opposable
* BEE STING is opposed
* DREAM DESERT has just 6 career runs
* Horses with under 9 runs were just 1-46 in this race
* I looked at horses from handicaps over 11f or more
* In this race these horses had a 1-32 record
* In 90 other races these horses were 7-114
* Those like DREAM DESERT with under 9 runs were 1-22
* Those aged 4 like him had a 1-59 record in 90 races
* Its certainly an "unimpressive profile"
* Only 2 past winners of this dropped from 11f or more
* Both winners had far more experience than he does
* Those like him aged under 6 had a 0-39 record doing this
* DREAM DESERT wouldnt be my first choice
* No similar winner won this race
* They score pretty badly in all similar races as well
* DREAM DESERT wouldnt be my choice


SHORTLIST

VAINGLORY
PRESS THE BUTTON
KINGDOM OF FIFE
MULL OF DUBAI


* MULL OF DUBAI won this race last year
* He has a 4lbs higher mark this year and 5lbs more weight
* He also only has 1 run this season and not two
* That makes his chance that bit harder in my view
* I looked at exposed horses with 1 run this season
* They were 2-16 in this race but both winners were younger
* They both won last time and he did not
* I looked for these types in 90 similar races
* They had a 6-92 record
* Most were 5 year olds and only 1 did it when aged 6 or more
* He has to be respected especially with good track form
* This is a bit harder to win than his race last year
* MULL OF DUBAI is shortlistable and selected
* I do feel there are better options though
* PRESS THE BUTTON has a reasonably good profile
* He comes from the same race as the 2005-2006 winners
* He is more exposed than those and older
* I would still give him a good chance in this race
* Looking at the 90 similar races as well
* PRESS THE BUTTON is "acceptable"
* You'd prefer him to have been younger and less exposed
* Far more races were won by these types
* His connections feel he is best in small fields
* I dont think he has anything in front of the handicapper
* I see him as Shortlistable but others are better
* He also has no form at Chester before
* KINGDOM OF FIFE is a seasonal debutant 4 year old
* He also comes from a 3yo handicap
* All 17 horses doing that in this race lost
* There were 4 seasonal debutant winners in this race
* None of these have under 9 runs as he does
* Those aged 4 like KINGDOM OF FIFE were 2-40
* None dropped from 12f or more as he has to
* I Looked at similar types in the 90 races
* 4yo debutants that came from 3yo handicaps were 2-54
* None dropped from a 12f race though
* The Stoute record is pretty good
* Since 2000 he has run 6 seasonal debutant 4 year olds in these races
* 5 of the 6 he ran won first time out
* That makes KINGDOM OF FIFE quite interesting
* However none of Stoutes winners came from 3yo handicaps
* I respect KINGDOM OF FIFE
* He is unsafe though and I cant find a similar winner
* KINGDOM OF FIFE is shortlisted though

* VAINGLORY comes from an 8f race
* Horses in this race doing that were 2-81
* None had 1 run this year as he does (0-21)
* What he does have in his favour is this
* He is experience and has a recent run and lightweight
* Both horses that won this from 8f races had the same
* He was also 3rd last year having had a long absence
* He also runs off 8lbs lower mark today and has 3lbs less weight
* I put VAINGLORY's profile through 90 similar races
* Horses aged 5 with 1 run this year from 8f handicaps
* The record was 3 winners from 11 runners
* No horse like VAINGLORY has won this race
* However only 1 tried and his type are strong elsewhere
* He looks very well handicapped
* VAINGLORY has placed on both runs here
* VAINGLORY looks a serious runner

SELECTION

VAINGLORY E/W 14/1

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CHESTER 2.15


EXTRABET HUXLEY STAKES (THE TRADESMAN'S CUP)
(GROUP 3) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m2f75y

7/4 Doctor Fremantle, 9/4 Expresso Star, 6/1 Staying On, 10/1 Yahrab, 14/1 Wasan, 20/1 Bushman, 20/1 Halicarnassus, 25/1 Fairmile, 50/1 Indian Days, 50/1 Logic Way.

* The Huxley Stakes is a Group 3 race over 10f
* The race first started in 1999
* There has been 10 renewals of this race
* There has been 36 similar races elsewhere in May
* None of the 36 winners of similar races were exposed
* All 34 that were exposed lost in this races
* FAIRMILE fails that
* LOGIC WAY fails that
* HALICARNASSUS fails that
* INDIAN DAYS looks out of his depth
* He is badly weighted and didnt show enough last time
* DOCTOR FREMANTLE has an absence longer than any winner
* Only 1 past winner won first time out
* There were others win in similar races
* None came down from 14f or more though
* No similar race went to a horse so far down in trip
* DOCTOR FREMANTLE's profile worries me
* WASAN is also a seasonal debutant
* He comes up from handicaps and no past winner did that
* I looked at the 36 other Listed and Group races at 10f
* Horses from Handicaps had a 0-27 record
* WASAN is unlikely to bridge the class gap
* YAHRAB is very difficult to assess
* I dont like his absence much
* He may pop in but he doesnt look one for me
* He is a bit exposed with 17 runs anyway
* The ideal range to have is 7-12 starts
* STAYING ON comes from an 8f race
* No past winner of this race did that
* Only 2 of the 36 similar races were won by 8f runners
* They came from much better class races
* No horse managed that with 1 race this season
* STAYING ON isnt for me
* I dont want him coming up in trip
* EXPRESSO STAR also comes from a mile
* No horse managed that with 1 race this season
* He also comes from handicaps and thats a worry
* I looked at the 36 other Listed and Group races at 10f
* Horses from Handicaps had a 0-27 record
* May has seen 121 listed and Group races at 8f and more
* In those 121 races 6 horses came via handicaps
* Only 2 of those had 1 run that season
* Neither of those stepped up in trip
* Neither of thos had his absence either
* EXPRESSO STAR doesnt appeal to me
* Not coming from an 8f handicap

SELECTION

BUSHMAN Each Way

* The best trial race is the Gordon Richards Stakes
* Horses from that race have a 3-7 record in this race
* Unexposed horses aged 4-5 from this race were best
* These horses had a W W W 2 record from 4 runners
* These 3 winners came 4th 5th and 5th in the Gordon Richards
* BUSHMAM was 7th in the Gordon Richards
* BUSHMAN has an excellent profile for me
* Its asking a lot for a 25/1 + horse to win
* I do feel he is worth the chance at the odds

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CHESTER 2.45

VIRGIN MONEY CHESTER VASE (GROUP 3)
(COLTS & GELDINGS) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m4f66y

7/4 Masterofthehorse, 3/1 Debussy, 5/1 Sight Unseen,
7/1 Above Average, 7/1 Saptapadi, 12/1 Too Much Trouble,
14/1 Golden Sword, 200/1 Solo Choice.

SELECTION - DEBUSSY

The Chester Vase is a Group 3 race for Colts over 12f and is a trial for the Epsom Derby. SOLO CHOICE is outclassed.
None of the last 20 winners had under 2 starts and many of
these were fancied so SIGHT UNSEEN is out with just one
race. TOO MUCH TROUBLE comes from Catterick and I think there will be better runners. He only won a 3 horse race
and had nothing to beat. All past winners came via Grade 1
tracks and he has ran just twice before. GOLDEN SWORD
is the Aidan OBrien second string and for him to win then
Johnny Murtagh must have chosen wrong and I doubt he
has. SAPTAPADI would be the least experienced winner
since 1996 and as he is drawn worst I am against him. He
is held by ABOVE AVERAGE anyway. He comes from
a Good Trial race that produced 4 recent winners. I'd have
to shortlist ABOVE AVERAGE. I like DEBUSSY as he
has been impressive this year. He has to be on any final
shortlist. The unknown runner is Irish seasonal debutant
MASTEROFTHEHORSE last seen dissapointing as the
second favourite for the Racing Post Trophy. One strike
against him is that its been over 20 years since the last
seasonal debutant won this race. Given the choice I'd be
most confident about DEBUSSY


SELECTION - DEBUSSY

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CHESTER 3.15

BOODLES DIAMOND ETERNITY HANDICAP
(CLASS 2) (3yo,0-100) 7f122y

9/4 Resort, 5/1 Goliaths Boy, 5/1 Tartan Gunna, 11/2
Hunterview, 6/1 Fareer, 10/1 Imco Spirit, 14/1 Foundation
Room, 14/1 Kingswinford, 16/1 Viva Ronaldo.

* This is an extended 7f Handicap for 0-97 rated 3 year olds
* There has been 16 renewals of this race
* Dont worry about high drawn horses in this race
* Plenty have won and placed
* Since 2005 in all handicaps here Stall one is 0-26
* Stall one can get cut off arround the bend at this trip
* That illustrates not to worry about the draw
* This race is and has been dominated by lightly raced types
* KINGSWINFORD is far too exposed for me
* He has 6 more runs than every past winner
* VIVA RONALDO is also exposed
* No similar horse won like him
* Seasonal debutants won 2 of the 16 races
* Both were females though
* No male horse won this first time out (0-23)
* GOLAITHS BOY fails that
* IMCO SPIRIT isnt for me
* He just looks a bit exposed
* Horses that came from 8f handicaps do win
* Those well beaten over 8f in class 2 handicaps are best
* Those that came from Class 3 or lower struggled
* Those horses 1-2-3-4-5 in Class 3 handicaps were 0-18
* I dont want horses that run well in Class 3 handicaps
* HUNTERVIEW fails that and is out
* TARTAN GUNNA looks a strong runner
* He doesnt really fit the profile of any past winners
* No horse was as busy as he has been this year

SHORTLIST

* FAREER has a strong profile
* FOUNDATION ROOM is a female seasonal debutant
* Two winners had that profile
* RESORT also looks shortlistable

SELECTION

FOUNDATION ROOM

I will take a chance with the bigger priced
horse in an open race.

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CHESTER 4.35

HALLIWELL JONES BMW Z4 HANDICAP
(CLASS 3) (3yo,0-90) 6f18y

9/2 Aakef, 5/1 Lucky Numbers, 8/1 Fivefootnumberone,
8/1 Parisian Pyramid, 9/1 Cyflymder, 10/1 Desert Falls,
10/1 Invincible Heart, 11/1 Coleorton Choice, 12/1 Mister
Green, 14/1 Moscow Eight, 14/1 The Kyllachy Kid, 16/1
Kersivay, 20/1 Cool Art, 25/1 Lakeman, 25/1 Tagula Breeze.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 6f for 0-86 rated horses
* There has been 16 renewals of these races
* There are a ferocious looking 15 runners
* I suspect its a bit of a waste of study time
* I will try and produce a shortlist from key stats
* All past winners had between 5 and 20 career starts
* I would look to oppose horses drawn 11 or more
* I would oppose all horses from maidens (0-25)
* I would oppose all seasonal debutants
* I would oppose certain horses that come from 5f races
* Oppose the ones with 9 + runs that come from 5f
* Oppose the ones that won over 5f last time (0-17)
* Oppose the ones with 1 run this year over 5f
* I'd oppose horses with 1 run this year if beaten 10 + lengths
* I'd oppose horses that ran in Group 1 or Group 2 class before
* I am shortlisting 4 horses on these trends

LUCKY NUMBERS - COLEORTON CHOICE
CYFLYMDER - FIVEFOOTNUMBERONE

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WINDSOR 6.00

JET MAX LUBES CLAIMING STAKES (CLASS 6) (3yo) 1m2f7y

11/2 Swiss Art, 7/1 Troubletimestwo, 15/2 Daily Double, 8/1 Dalrymple, 8/1 Hector Spectre, 9/1 And A Partridge, 12/1 Commandingpresence, 12/1 Fantastic Fred, 14/1 Herecomesbella, 16/1 Guilin, 16/1 Hollow Green, 16/1
Rubbinghousedotcom, 20/1 Dulce Domum, 20/1 Paymaster In Chief, 20/1 Primo Dilettante, 25/1 Derringbay.


This is a 3yo claimer over 10 furlongs. What really hampers me in this race is that there are not enough of these races to find out what type really wins these races. I would have liked far more of these races to get a proper view. There has been 26 similar claiming races in April and May. What the results of these 26 races tell me to do is to avoid certain types of horses. They tell me AND A PARTRIDGE is too inexperienced. They tell me that I should ignore all the horses that come from 7f races as they have too much of a step up in distance. This takes out
three horses SWISS ART - COMMANDINGPRESENCE and
PAYMASTER IN CHIEF. Horses with long absences have to
go as well so PRIMO DILETTANTE - DULCE DOMUM and HOLLOW GREEN are out. Fillies with absences are out so HERECOMESBELLA and GUILIN are gone. I am going to oppose all horses up in trip that were well beaten last time
as they have a 1-91 record so DERRINGBAY is out. I'd be
against RUBBINGHOUSEDOTCOM from an 8f classified
race. Horses from 8f claimers like FANTASTIC FRED are
weak. DAILY DOUBLE didnt do enough last time for me.
I respect HECTOR SPECTRE but felt that he was beaten
too far to be confident about going up in distance.

SHORTLIST

DALRYMPLE -TROUBLETIMESTWO

* DALRYMPLE comes from a handicap over 11f or more
* Horses beaten 10 + lengths last time in these races were 5-14
* TROUBLETIMESTWO also comes from 3yo handicaps 11f +
* These horses have a 8-19 record
* TROUBLETIMESTWO ran well last time at Beverley
* I think he has the right profile to win this

SELECTION

TROUBLETIMESTWO Each Way

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WINDSOR 7.35

CONOCOPHILLIPS JET DISTRIBUTORS
HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo,0-75) 6f

9/2 Gilt Edge Girl, 11/2 Bold Tie, 11/2 Cawdor, 7/1 Merry Diva, 8/1 Battle, 10/1 Bobbie Soxer, 10/1 Izzi Mill, 12/1 Riflessione, 14/1 Forward Feline, 14/1 Raimond Ridge, 16/1 Jeremiah, 20/1 Bobs Dreamflight, 20/1 Pocket's Pick, 33/1 Caledonia Princess, 33/1 Leadenhall Lass, 33/1 Miss Hollybell.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 6f
* There has been 115 similar races in May
* Fillies that come from 5f races are weak
* They have a 2-153 record since 1993
* Those with under 7 runs are 0-63
* Those that came from maidens are 0-19
* GILT EDGE GIRL fails this
* Since 1996 they have a 0-123 record
* GILT EDGE GIRL looks opposable in this race
* Fillies from 2yo maidens score badly
* None had over 3 career starts
* MISS HOLLYBELL fails that
* MERRY DIVA is a filly from a 2yo maiden
* No filly won a 2yo maiden and won a similar race
* None did it as inexperienced as she is
* This may just be too much for MERRY DIVA
* Fillies from 3yo maidens are poor
* With 4 or more runs they are 0-52
* IZZI MILL fails that and is rejected
* LEADENHALL LASS is out as a filly with a long absence
* I cant find a similar winner to her
* I looked at maiden fillies that came from 3yo handicaps
* These had a poor 3-126 record
* None had over 9 runs or over two runs that year
* Those that came from 6f handicaps were 0-51
* FORWARD FELINE fails all these and is out
* I looked at fillies from 6f 3yo handicaps
* With under 7 career starts they were 0-63
* Those that had 1 run that year didnt score well either
* When having under 9 career starts they were 0-42
* CALEDONIA PRINCESS fails that
* Horses that come from 5f races with 1 run this year worry me
* Those from handicaps had a 1-57 record
* POCKETS PICK fails that and is out
* I looked at horses from 3yo handicaps over 5f
* Those that were not 1-2-3-4-5 last time were 0-63
* Those that were beaten 6 + lengths in them were 0-52
* BOBS DREAMFLIGHT fails that and didnt do enough last time
* I cant find a winner like JEREMIAH
* He was beaten miles in a maiden last time
* RIFLESSIONE comes from a 5f handicap
* He looks very exposed to be defying a penalty
* RAIMOND RIDGE has a chance statistically
* I wouldnt want him drawn one though

POSSIBLES

BOBBIE SOXER - BATTLE
BOLD TIE - CAWDOR

* BOBBIE SOXER is a filly from a 7f handicap
* I have no problems with her profile and like her chance
* BATTLE has a reasonable profile
* I would have to shortlist him
* BOLD TIE won a 2yo maiden and has two runs
* Colts like him have a great record
* Colts from 2yo maidens with under 5 runs were 3-3
* Those that had 2 runs as he does were 1-1


SELECTION

BOLD TIE with a saver on BOBBIE SOXER

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