No Bet Today


Four Goodwood races and Three Lingfield races make up
a 7 race Message today. Decided not to go with a bet on
the day but I am having a few bets myself. Think it is a
fascinating days racing. Feels a day for smaller stakes at
bigger prices. I will just list bets I am having today.


Goodwood is not an easy card to negotiate today. I feel
I have to have something on PHANTOM WHISPER at 8/1 in the 3.10pm as the ground is right and he won the race last year from a much higher rating. I quite like the prospect of betting CARNABY STREET at 7/4 in the maiden at 4.20 . My only other bet at Goodwood will be HELAKU at 10/1 or more in a Maiden at 4.55. Not a horse I can realistically tip but He is a really big price for lots of good reasons. Lingfield is a card with less clear evidence. I will be betting my choices in the 3pm Handicap SATWA STAR and PACIFIC BAY and my selection in the 3.35pm SATWA LAIRD as well. Apart from my bet on Carnaby Street all my bets today are 7/1 + so hopeful rather than confident.


Not sure about what results we will have today but it feels an interesting message to me with lots to say and ponder about. A Couple of owners interest me. Michael Pescod has a horse running today at a big price that fits perfectly with my long established "Micheal Pescod" system which has been quiet in the last year so keep a close eye on his runner in the 4.55pm. I also think it's interesting I have seperately come to selecting 2 horses today in different races that I liked and they're owned by the same syndicate a Dubai Oil team and it wouldnt surprise me if their trainer Ed Dunlop has been told to prepare both horses to win in the 3pm and 3.30pm at Lingfield. Just felt these factors made an interesting day even more so. Nothing that has that strong appeal as a bet I have to stake today.


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T O D A Y S R A C I N G


The record shows two bets and two losers yesterday but
it was more complicated than that and doesnt reflect the
business done on the day. I think PERFECT SHOT had
come to win easily but he just didnt stay the 2 miles and
faded late. He ran out of petrol. MRS BUKAY flopped
and I really dont know why. It was dissapointing both of
the bets lost. Even more annoying as they were in what
was an e mail packed full of winners at decent prices. It
may have come down to whether you followed the Top
of the message and my strong suggestion that you should
have backed SEVEN IS MY NUMBER. I couldnt have
been much clearer that it was a sensible bet to win the
stake of both losers yesterday. As ever some will have
done that and had a good day from a double losing bet
day and others wont have done. The Top Paragraph is
a message within a message and I have long said that it
should be followed. Quite how I showed a paper loss on
the day with a strong message like that is probably down
to a lot of things not least bad staking but I feel in very
good form at the moment and wont let it worry me.


I have picked a few races from Goodwood and Lingfield
today as I did not see much at Ffos Las to talk about.




LINGFIELD 1.50

Bet Heineken Cup - Betdaq Handicap (Div I)
(CLASS 5) (3yo 0-70) 7f

11/4 Gassin, 7/2 La Gifted, 5/1 King Of Defence,
8/1 Finnegan Mccool, 8/1 Hatman Jack, 8/1 Russian Rave,
10/1 Safari Guide, 16/1 Shadow Bay, 25/1 Amber Sunset,
25/1 Sienna Lake, 100/1 Badtanman.

This is a 3yo Handicap over 7f. These races are some
of the trickiest to sort out. Some of the whys and the
wherefores are unclear as its not easy to understand
all the complex issues in these races. Thought I would
have a go though. There has been 35 of these races at
this time of year. Thats not a lot but I am going to
follow the stats through to the letter in this race and
not try and understand why things have happened in
the way they have. As an example horses that Won
last time out have a perculiar 0-38 record in the 35
races. That 0-38 record has to be a worry much as I
dont know why thats happened. LA GIFTED fails
that as does GASSIN. Both won last time out but as
we have a 0-38 for similar last time winners I will be
looking elsewhere. I want at least 4 runs this year. In
35 similar races horses without that had a 1-91 record
so out go KING OF DEFENCE and SIENNA LAKE.
If you look at horses absent over a Month its quite
interesting. Fillies do a lot better than Males. All the
Male runners who were absent over a Month had a
2-108 record. Those that came from 3yo handicaps
were 0-49 and SAFARI GUIDE fails that. Also failing
that is HATMAN JACK who also steps up in distance
something no male horse did with an absence. Horses
from Claimers were 0-40 so SHADOW BAY has to
go. No horse as exposed as BADTANMAN came via
a 5f race so he is out. Male horses from 6f races had
a poor 3-113 record and none were as exposed or as
well beaten as FINNEGAN MCCOOL was last time so
I am against him as well. Fillies with 13 or more runs
had a 4-102 record in 35 races. None of them won
without 8 runs this year something AMBER SUNSET
has to overcome and none came from races like she
does. I come down to jujst one horse that I can bet
in RUSSIAN RAVE. Fillies with absences score well
and those like RUSSIAN RAVE from all aged races
are much better. I wouldn trust 3yo handicaps much
and these trends could easily mislead us and it's a bad
idea to play with trends you dont understand. I have
done that here and come up with RUSSIAN RAVE.

SELECTION - RUSSIAN RAVE

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GOODWOOD 2.00

Three Musketeers Trophy Handicap
(For National Hunt Jockeys) (CLASS 5)
(4yo+ 0-70) 2m

5/1 Whitcombe Spirit, 11/2 Black Or Red, 11/2 No Rules,
13/2 Hawridge Star, 9/1 Swordsman, 10/1 Forget It,
12/1 Kokkokila, 12/1 Ned Ludd, 12/1 Trempari,
14/1 Blockley, 14/1 Enthusius, 20/1 Hill Of Clare,
20/1 The Composer, 33/1 Damascus Gold.

Goodwood starts with a 2m Handicap for National
Hunt Jockeys. Just 2 renewals and its probably an
unsafe thing to do but looking at all 2m handicaps
for all jockeys at this time of year is our only real
option statistically. I would oppose BLOCKLEY
as an exposed horse coming from 2m without any
backclass. DAMASCAS GOLD has to go from 11f
with 1 run this year. KOKOKILA isnt for me as a
mare from a 12f race and with an absence. I didnt
see HAWRIDGE STAR as fit enough. He has not
run in 13 months. If you look at 67 similar races
in October and look at horses that had 4 months
absence when they had 9 or more career runs they
had a 0-85 record and when they were aged 5 or
more they were 0-88 and HAWRIDGE STAR is
an unlikely winner failing both those angles and
NED LUDD also fails them as well. FORGET IT
has been off too long. TREMPARI ran too badly
last time. Look at horses that ran at 2m + and
that were beaten 10 + lengths last time you find
a poor record. Those aged 5 or more were 0-130
and ENTHUSIUS and TREMPARI both fail that.
HILL OF CLAIRE only just avoids failing that by
a tiny distance and as a 7yo with a 59 day absence
I would avoid her as well. THE COMPOSER also
very nearly fails that and I wouldnt want him as I
have never felt he stays 2m on turf. I cant rate a
chaser like SWORDSMAN accuratelly but I don't
see a good reason to overlook some modest runs.
The 3 strongest runners are shortlisted -

BLACK OR RED
NO RULES
WHITCOMBE SPIRIT

SELECTION

BLACK OR RED Each Way

Small stakes on this race as I'm not sold on my choice.

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LINGFIELD 3.00

Bet Heineken Cup - Betdaq Handicap (Div II)
(CLASS 5) (3yo 0-70) 7f

3/1 Miss Frangipane, 4/1 Kuanyao, 6/1 Satwa Star,
7/1 Especially Special, 7/1 Lindy Hop, 7/1 Spiritual Art,
12/1 Pacific Bay, 16/1 Imperial Skylight, 20/1 Pagan Force, 25/1 Quick Single.

This is the second division of the 1.50pm race. No point
of repeating myself with the issues in these races so if you want some background just read the first division preview at 1.50pm. I have looked at all 3yo handicaps over 7f at this time of year. Ran all these horses through all similar races and found just 2 horses I liked. I would argue that the most interesting options and the only runners I could be with are PACIFIC BAY who I see as more of a saver or a place only bet and my first choice SATWA STAR. I have watched both horses on tape. More than happy that have this pair shortlisted. Wouldnt be at all surprised if one of them won but there are some worries. SATWA STAR may blow these away but he needs to settle better and if he gets beaten he is no certainty to place and any each way bet is unsafe. PACIFIC BAY is the same. She could blast out and try and make all and if caught she could fade. I wouldnt be able to split these. I think its a race for a split stake. Half your stake on both horses and we have a chance with both.

SELECTION - Split Stakes

SATWA STAR
PACIFIC BAY

* Nb

Satwa Star is owned by some Dubai Oil men and the
owners "The Lamprell Partnership" also run a horse
called Satwa Laird in the 3.35 and I give him a great
chance at a big price in that race. May well be worth
a tiny double. The owners may well have told trainer
Ed Dunlop to prepare both to win today.


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GOODWOOD 3.10

Jenny Allen Birthday Celebration Handicap
(CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-95) 6f

11/4 We Have A Dream, 13/2 Aye Aye Digby, Rash Judgement
8/1 Son Of The Cat, 12/1 Kerrys Requiem, 12/1 Mujood
14/1 Arthur´s Edge, 14/1 Phantom Whisper, 14/1 Seamus Shindig 16/1 Haajes, 16/1 Osiris Way, 16/1 Perfect Flight, Viking Spirit 25/1 Cerito.

* This is a 6f Handicap for 0-91 rated horses
* October has seen 75 similar races
* 19 of the 75 winners were 3 year olds
* Those with Listed-Group Class before were 1-117
* KERRYS REQUIEM fails that
* CERITO also fails that
* SON OF THE CAT also fails that
* KERRYS REQUIEM is a 3yo filly with 21 runs
* 3 year old fillies with 13 + career runs were poor
* Those without a run in 7 days were 0-49
* CERITO has too long an absence for a 3yo
* SON OF THE CAT comes from a 3yo handicap over 6f
* There were 5 winners that did that in 75 races
* However those with 9 + career runs were 1-60
* There were 7 winners aged 7 or more
* These horses were best with a recent run
* Those without a run within 2 weeks were 2-92
* Those without a run in 2 weeks from 6f or less were 0-75
* OSIRIS WAY fails that absent 43 days
* SEAMUS SHINDIG fails that as well absent 31 days
* VIKING SPIRIT also fails that absent 37 days
* Since 2005 Goodwood has had 59 x 6f handicaps
* Thats 59 handicaps with 9 or more runners
* Horses drawn in stall 1 had a 0-59 record
* Its the worst Draw over this Course and Distance
* RASH JUDGEMENT Fails that
* AYE AYE DIGBY doesnt appeal much to me
* Not aged 4 and beaten so badly last time
* PERFECT FLIGHT is underraced this year
* Especially as an older filly with just 3 runs and a break
* MUJOOD is badly handicapped at the moment
* I dont like that he was well beaten last time
* Thats not a good profile with such a weight
* MUJOOD isnt for me
* ARTHUR´S EDGE isnt too bad statistically
* He has no winning form over 6f though
* He is also on a career high mark
* HAAJES isnt too bad statistically
* He is on a Career high mark though
* All his wins have been at 5f
* His record at this trip is 0-15

SHORTLIST

* PHANTOM WHISPER Won this last year
* He has a lot less weight this year
* PHANTOM WHISPER looks well treated off 80
* WE HAVE A DREAM has won his last two
* This is a better class race but he will go close

SELECTION

Win Bet on PHANTOM WHISPER 10/1
Saver on WE HAVE A DREAM 5/1

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LINGFIELD 3.35

Bet World Cup Football - Betdaq Handicap
(CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-95) 7f

7/2 Prescription, 13/2 Without Prejudice, 7/1 Crown Choice, 8/1 Satwa Laird, 10/1 Kyllachy Star, 11/1 Broad Cairn, 11/1 Desert Dreamer, 12/1 King´s Wonder, 12/1 More Time Tim, 12/1 Oratory, 14/1 Internationaldebut, 16/1 Spirit Of Sharjah, 20/1 Archie Rice,

Very unpleasant 7f Handicap and it looks pretty competetive. There has been 112 of these 7f Handicaps in October both on sand and turf. I would oppose PRESCRIPTION because of the record of fillies like her in the 112 races. She just looks risky.

* Fillies won 15 of the 112 races
* Those absent a month were 0-76
* Fillies with under 9 runs were 1-82
* Fillies 1-2-3 runs this year 0-37
* Fillies 1-2-3-4-5 runs this year 1-107

Thats bad enough but it doesnt reflect the fact she also has to step up in distance as well. I think she is far too risky and none of the 112 winners were similar. Hard to find any other negatives and to get the field down. I didnt fancy ORATORY with 1 run this year. I think ther are stronger options than MORE TIME TIM or DESERT DREAMER. I dont think I should be with INTERNATIONALDEBUT up in distance. I think SPIRIT OF SHARJAH is about to win but maybe not in a field as big as this as I think he wants a small field. If you look at the 112 races and look at 3 year olds that had 13 or more career starts you find a reasonable record if they have a recent run. If they didnt run within 2 weeks they were 1-90 so I dont think I would go with KYLLACHY STAR either.I dont want ARCHIE RICE - KINGS WONDER - CORDELL.

Shortlist

I really dont know what will win this but I shortlist 4 that I like. I fancied CROWN CHOICE last time and he looked like he needed the run. He needs to be respected. Statistically I'm not that impressed and he wouldnt have been my choice. I have nothing against BROARD CAIRN but again he doesnt float my boat either, WITHOUT PREDUJICE has to be a big runner. SATWA LAIRD could also do a lot of damage in this race and is a big runner and the owners of this horse a Dubai Oil outfit also run a horse I like in the 3pm race as well called Satwa Star and I just wonder if a tiny double on these two horses wouldnt be a bad idea. I will go with a win bet on SATWA LAIRD but it's no more than a hunch.


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GOODWOOD 4.20

Celer Et Audax Median Auction Maiden Stakes
(CLASS 5) (2yo) 6f

Evs Carnaby Street, 9/2 Warning Song, 11/2 London Gold,
8/1 Bonheurs Art, 10/1 Inler, 16/1 Joe Rua, 16/1 Rolling Hills, 20/1 The Confessor, 33/1 Cereal Killer, 33/1 Sapphire Spirit, 100/1 Barafundle Boy, 100/1 Wannabee.

* This is a 2yo maiden over 6f
* We have 195 similar races in October
* There are not many you can rule out
* I dont like BONHEURS ART much
* She is a filly with 3 runs and finished 5th last time
* Fillies that were unplaced in 2yo maidens were fine
* But when having 3 + runs they had a 0-26 record
* BONHEURS ART doesnt set a high standard
* WARNING SONG wouldnt appeal either
* Not from a 5f Auction race
* INLER smells fancied and could be the danger
* Despite not being able to rate several of these
* I felt CARNABY STREET was the best option
* CARNABY STREET comes from a sales race
* That was a Class 2 Sales race over 7f
* In 195 races I looked at horses that did that
* When they had 3-4-5 career runs they were 4-4
* CARNABY STREET has that and looks very strong

SELECTION

CARNABY STREET

Nb

* An Each Way Double looks an option
* Also worth a bet at 2/1 + and lay back in running at evens
* That gives you an evens winner should he win
* You've every chance of getting your money back if losing
* The horse Should have been about evens anyway
* I would rather have him than the the unraced Inler
* Personally I am going with the lay back in running
* CARNABY STREET at 2/1 and lay at evens in running

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GOODWOOD 4.55

EBF Goodwood Racehorse Owners´ Group
Maiden Stakes (CLASS 4) (2yo) 1m1f

7/2 Phonic, 4/1 Regal Guest, 5/1 Another Magic Man
7/1 Cast Of Stars, 7/1 Crystal Gale, Helaku, 12/1 Berling
16/1 Domination, 16/1 Viviani, 25/1 Lis Pendens
25/1 Ted Spread, 40/1 Big Talk, 40/1 Harry Paget
40/1 Xtreme, 100/1 Lisahane Bog.

This is a 2yo Maiden over 9f. The only thing I want
to say here is that Michael Pescod is an owner I look
at carefully and have always felt he has an abnormal
record with his 2 year olds second time out especially
when big prices and whem given a very quiet run first
time out. Today Pescod runs HELAKU trained by one
of his trainers Richard Hannon. I was ready to risk him
the other day but he withdrew and I then deleted him
from the message. Its always worth a try with this man's
juveniles. After all he did start just 7/1 for a Newmarket
maiden on a Grade 1 track last time out and wasnt beaten
far. Watch the video of that race and you will see a run
with lots of potential and he eased up once beaten. The
winner of this race last year is interesting. He had 1 run
when well beaten in a Newmarket Maiden and came out
and won this and thats exactly what HELAKU is trying
to do today as well. I would take a chance on HELAKU.

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