No Account Bet

1 Selection

Brighton 5.20

BEST ONE 11/1 +
Win Bet

NAMU 7/1
Saver


I am going with BEST ONE freely available at 11/1 and 12/1
this morning. Selection only. Have a saver on NAMU who I
think has a chance. I considered BEST ONE for an each way
bet but wasnt sure the place was great value so went with the saver on NAMU rather than the saver on Green Lagonda the other horse I feel capable of winning the race. BEST ONE has a strong chance for a horse at his price and I have backed him and also backed Namu to break level on the race. Hope I have the right saver but happy with BEST ONE.


Two long previews today. I have done the 8pm at Nottingham
and spent some time on the race. Not sure if I have nailed the race and I have been left with Sadaska at 7/1 as the horse best suited to this sort of race. Problems start with the fact he is a horse from a stable thats impossible to read and if I went for him as a strong bet there would be plenty of risk with that and I am not as sure as I would need to be to go with him. That is a race that could have gone two ways. It could have developped into a strong betting race or frizzled out into a mediocre race and I think its done the latter so I am leaving it alone.

I have been boxed into a corner in the 5.20 at Brighton. It's a pretty tough 5f handicap and strikes plenty of fear in me but I have some powerful angles ruling horses out that I am tempted to play in the race. I fancy BEST ONE but I need to be clear that whilst 12/1 is more than fair he is far from a certainty and he is not even certain go close. His pro's outweight his con's and I've made the case for him at his price so I feel we should go down the selection route with him today and have a saver.

At the bottom of todays message are some statistics for the
Ebor Handicap tomorrow. They are pretty strong and I include them today to save congestion in tomorrows message. They are also posted on the message board. I will interpret them in tomorrow's message but anyone wanting to pick your own on the basis of these trends can do so early and they are powerful and have provided many recent winners including a 100/1 one in 1997 so I would be confident these trends will work tomorrow.


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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G


York has day one of the Ebor festival starting today. I plan to dip in and out of York all week. Will cover several races but I wont be getting bogged down in impossible race like we have today. Nothing at all from me at Yok today. I usually miss the opening day as its just ridiculously hard. The York Handicaps look hideous. The Great Voltiguer is a trial race and has a poor seven runner frame. I probably would look to something like Alwaary or Jukebox Jury but you have to guess just as you have to in the tactical conundrum served up by Sea The Stars and Mastercraftsman in the 3.25pm. I couldnt even consider a bet at York and it makes no sense to cover today. I dont see much at Worcester either.


The plan today is to gently glide over Brighton building up towards an interesting final race and to do the only race at Nottingham worth doing at 8pm.



B R I G H T O N

I describe it as a gentle glide over Brighton until the last race and thats what it is as I have to glide over the early races as I dont have a strong opinion at all. The interesting thing at Brighton is guaranteed Firm ground as the watering system has broken this week and they havent been able to water so it will take a real hoof rattler to win today on such a fiercly undulating track. I can only guess in the opening maiden so dont pay much attention to anything here I say and let the market guide you and be prepared for it to overrule me. I'd be interested in Constant Contact if he was backed and he looked the overpriced runner in the first.

The Claimer is a very tight affair and there does not look to be any significant thing wrong with any of the market leaders. I'd suggest SENESCHAL has a margin edge over CAPRIO with DRESSED TO DANCE a very close third. I would be going with SENESCHAL and would even consider a saver on Caprio but I still wouldnt be sure here so minimum stakes are best.



BRIGHTON 3.10

3/1 Orangeleg, 5/1 Valid Point, 6/1 Red Horse, 8/1 Spring Secret, 10/1 Count On Guest, 10/1 Ocean Countess, 12/1 Cavendish Road, 12/1 Fire King, 14/1 Hold The Star, 16/1 Lennie Briscoe, 16/1 Pointillist, 20/1 Jonnie Skull, 33/1 Always The Sun.

The 3.10pm is a 3yo handicap. I have never considered this
race as a potential preview as its far too hard and one of those typical 3yo handicaps that cant be sorted. I only include it in todays message as I ran some of these horses through the 80 similar races at this time of year. My best negatives were the market leaders. I would have opposed ORANGELEG with one run this year. Since 1994 both August and September have seen 127 of these races in Class 5 and Class 6 and in the 127 races horses like ORANGELEG with 1 run that seaon had not won any in a 0-48 record. I'd take her on. I also consider that the topweight CAVENDISH ROAD was weak as he's a bit exposed to take a step up in distance and few horses like him succeeded in doing that when so exposed and none did it that were male so
I'd oppose these. I had SPRING SECRET as having a bad profile as well. I couldnt find a winner like VALID POINT who has to overcome a long absence and maiden form and I had to put him on the list of negatives as well with RED HORSE also opposed because of his absence. Pretty impossible race I think but I have to oppose the first three in the market. There isnt a stand out alternative. Plenty of strength in depth in the race that goes
down to the 16/1 + runner. If you want to play in this difficult race I would suggest you try and find an alternative to the ones I have mentioned above as none had profiles I could match with winners of similar races at this time of year.


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BRIGHTON 3.45

100/30 Strong Storm, 4/1 Recalcitrant, 4/1 Red Reef, 4/1 Sceilin, 6/1 Rosy Dawn, 8/1 Wester Ross, 20/1 It's My Day, 33/1 Spartan Dance.

This is a 0-70 handicap over just short of 10 furlongs and I've looked at 259 similar races. I think I have 5 weak profiles and 3 positive ones. I would look to oppose RECALCITRANT as he is exposed and comes up from a Mile race in the last 2 weeks and whilst winners did that none did it without far more runs that season and he only has three. STRONG STORM is favourite but I didnt like his profile much. He is a 3 year old that comes from an all aged handicap. I found 8 winners doing that but only one
was as inexperienced as him and none did it with 9st 5lbs or more and a 3 year old carrying 9st 12lbs isnt an easy task and because I couldnt match him to any past winner I didnt want him. I am not shortlisting ROSY DAWN as she is an expoosed 4yo filly with no backclass. WESTER ROSS didnt make my shortlist as it was mainly down to a long absence and SPARTAN DANCE also failed to make it. Therefore I could only shortlist three

SCEILIN 9/2 - RED REEF 5/1 - ITS MY DAY 20/1

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BRIGHTON 4.50

FREEBETS.CO.UK FREE BETS HANDICAP
(CLASS 5)(3yo+ 0-70) 6f209y

4/1 Lady Florence, 4/1 Too Tall, 9/2 Piazza San Pietro,
6/1 Ivory Lace, 7/1 Millfield, 8/1 Motor Home, 12/1 Magnitude, 14/1 Choreography, 16/1 Annes Rocket, 20/1 Kipchak, 33/1 Rony Dony, 66/1 Balfour House.

This is a 0-80 handicap just short of 7 furlongs and August
and September had 363 similar races. This is not easy at all. I thought PIAZZA SAN PIETRO had work to do as a 3 year
old up in trip and a bit too exposed for comfort. I would be sceptical about TOO TALL another 3 year old up in distance. In 363 races horses aged 3 that came from 6f races when they had under 9 career starts were only 2-135 and that is a sorry record when you consider those like TOO TALL that had not won before are 0-85 and those like him coming via handicaps were just 1-96 and he doesnt interest me with his profile. I'd oppose RONY DONY and BALFOUR HOUSE. Horses like MOTOR HOME aged 3 coming from 7f handicaps when they had 13 or more runs were only 1-64 and he may be exposed for a 3 year old. ANNES ROCKET didnt really interest me and it looks like he has lost form and confidence since a fall earlier in the year. I think we then move into a different area of "unsatisfactory" profiles. I couldnt make these negatives but I did not see enough I liked about them to reccomend a bet on them. MAGNITUDE is unipressive statistically and I would be worried about the ground for him. KIPCHAK was unimpressive as well as an exposed 4 year old hammered at 6 furlongs last time. IVORY LACE also looked unsafe but not out of it but I couldnt find a similar exposed mare that won any of the 363 races and she marginally misses out.

STRONG PROFILES

MILLFIELD looks to have enough to shortlist him. The
fact that LADY FLORENCE has a recent run just gets her
on a shortlist as well. CHOREOGRAPHY is interesting and
has a very strong profile running well last time from a bad
draw and looking like he could be able to take advantage of
a slipping handicap mark. I felt these three were best. If I had to nominate the best profile its CHOREOGRAPHY but
only just and there were a few that very nearly got on the
shortlist and I think its an open race. I have it down to just 3 on my list and CHOREOGRAPHY would be my selection.


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BRIGHTON 5.20

FREEBETS.CO.UK PREMIER LEAGUE FREE BETS
HANDICAP(CLASS 6)(3yo+ 0-65)5f59y

4/1 Multahab, 5/1 Green Lagonda, 6/1 Namu, 7/1 Cosmic Destiny, 8/1 Caribbean Coral, 10/1 Malapropism, 12/1 Littlemisssunshine, 14/1 Louie's Lad, 16/1 Rapanui Belle, 20/1 Best One, 20/1 Joss Stick, 20/1 Meikle Barfil, 25/1 Blakeshall Diamond 25/1 Tan Bonita.

The final race at Brighton is a straight forward 5f handicap for horses rated 0-65. My chances in this race will probably come down to how much I can rely on my statistics that concern the long absences that older horses have. These trends explain.

* July- August - September has seen 2326 Handicaps
* Thats 2326 handicaps between 5f and 6f in any Class
* I looked at horses that did not run in the last 31 days
* 238 winners won with a break of at least 31 days
* However those aged 9 or more didnt win any
* They had a 0-197 record since 1991 in 2326 races

This smells like a powerful statistic. 197 horses aged 9 or more lost in every similar race to this over a big three month summer period and that shows that the older you are the less likely you are to be able to overcome a long absence. In this race we have Three important runners that fail the above statistics

MULTAHAN is aged 10 and absent 43 days
CARIBBEAN CORAK is aged 10 and absent 49 days
MALAPROPISM is aged 9 and absent 32 days

Statistically I have to oppose these three horses as I have gone back 19 years overa 3 month period and thousands of similar races at 5f and 6f and no horse their age defied an absence that they all have. I would add a few more negatives. TAN BONITA looks underraced and possibly unfit as a filly with a massive 130 day break. I do not want BLAKESHALL DIAMOND in current mood. People say that low drawn stalls are best here but I would question that

The last 15 handicaps here with 9 + runners have seen all horses drawn in the low stalls 1-2-3 win just 1 race in a 1-41 record and I think a middle draw or a middle to high draw is just as good if not better than one of the 3 lowest stalls. I dont really see much of a case for MEIKLE BARFIL drawn 1 and coming from a poor claiming run. LITTLEMISSSUNSHINE doesnt look like selection material to me. She is a filly with just two runs this season. There
has been 279 similar 5f handicaps in August and September. The record of older fillies aged 4 or more with under 3 runs that year is understandably poor and none of them managed to win when they had 13 or more carrer starts. I think she is a bit exposed to be winning with just 2 runs this year especially as an older filly and when her draw could have been better. COSMIC DESTINY wouldnt be my first choice either as a Mare absent 56 days. If you look at Mares with absences you find a few but none were as old as her (7) and that absence must hurt her especially when
her 6 career wins were all achieved when running within 16 days of her last run. Three year olds like LOUIE'S LAD have to be considered. Those that come from 5f handicaps when having 13 or more career starts like LOUIE'S LAD were only 5-192. Most however had more backclass and were higher up the food chain. Those without form in Class 3 or better were just 1-83 and those with under 9st were 0-79 and LOUIE'S LAD fails both those trends and doesnt really appeal with a 0-20 career record. RAPANUI BELLE is a 3yo filly that comes from a 3yo handicap. Only 1 was as exposed as her and none came from a 6f race and I felt she had a weak profile. I would see Four horses that had better profiles than most and these four are shortlisted.


BEST ONE
JOSS STICK
GREEN LAGONDA
NAMU

JOSS STICK had just enough to be shortlisted but he didnt do much last time or the time before and didnt really shape like a winner. Throw in Stall 15 which hasnt been defied here in a handicap in years much as few tried and overall he had a shaky sort of look to him and an annoying profile in that he isnt easy to see winning and could lose it at the start but equally he has every right to pop up at 20/1 and spoil some alternative bet in the race. NAMU is an exposed Mare that drops down from a 6f race. In 279 races these types had a 7-153 record. Those like her aged 6 or older had a 2-47 record with both winners running within the last week and I also feel she is a bit unsteady statistically. There are very few winners like her in 279 races and whilst most of her flaws are so forgiveable you would worry about the lack of 5 furlong form in her career. NAMU has only run 3 races at this trip in a 50 race career and in all 3 runs she was at the back and twice outpaced. She is in good form and could well win this the way she is racing but the trip has to be a
problem and she could easily have to do this the hard way
from the back when outpaced early and she is a horse that
comes with plenty of risk for me. GREEN LAGONDA is
a serious runner whose in form and statistically fine and
he may well be the most likely winner but my only small
doubt with him is that he could be better drawn in stall 2
but I wouldnt see the draw stats as good enough to kick
him off a shortlist and he is a big runner. BEST ONE has
a nice profile and could well be the interesting horse at
the odds this morning. This is a horse that won last year
off a mark of 70 and placed off a mark of 79 as well so
to see him rated 57 today suggests he is well handicapped
and I like the way he finished last time at Lingfield. He
ran on too late and never looked like winning be he closed
well and wasnt beaten far and could easily have been closer
than he was. That looked to me like a horse that could be
about to win. I like his chance in this race and his draw. I only have one issue with him in that both career wins he
registered were in small fields and I hope he isnt a small
field horse. He has placed in a much better race with more
runners though and thats no more than a small worry. In
a very interesting race it may well be worth a bet on this
horse. My selection is BEST ONE at 12/1


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NOTTINGHAM 8.00

DG TAXIS THE WINNING FORECAST
HANDICAP(CLASS 6)(3yo 0-65) 2m9y

3/1 Bollin Judith, 7/2 Drop The Hammer, 6/1 La Polka,
8/1 Deuce, 10/1 My Les, 10/1 Sadaska, 12/1 Bubses Boy,
16/1 Highland Storm, Petella, 33/1 Royal Arthur.

* This is a 2m Handicap for 3 year olds
* August have seen 28 similar races
* July-August-September have seen 84 similar races
* There has been 124 similar races all year round on grass

* August has seen 183 handicaps for 3yo's at 11f and more
* Horses from Claimers had a 0-50 record in these races
* HIGHLAND STORM fails that
* BUBSES BOY also fail that
* Both also steps up from 10f races and are hard to fancy
* August has seen 66 3yo Handicaps over 14f and more
* Horses from 10f or shorter had a poor 3-97 record
* Those that had 7 or more career starts were 0-36
* BUBSES BOY - HIGHLAND STORM both fail that
* BUBSES BOY is not certain to stay this far either
* He has also just downgraded yards and has his first stable run

* LA POLKA is a filly with 3 runs
* She comes from a 12f maiden race
* In 28 August races horses from maidens were 0-33
* In 28 August races horses with 3 runs were 0-25
* LA POLKA fails both those angles
* July-August-September have seen 84 similar races
* Fillies with 3 runs like LA POLKA were 0-36
* Fillies from maidens like her were 1-56
* Those with under 5 runs were 0-37
* Fillies from 12f races were 0-34 with under 4 runs
* LA POLKA looks the wrong type for this race
* She looks like she needs at least another run
* She showed signs of inexperience last time
* Ran in Snatches and lost her place before running on
* This 2m in a handicap could catch her out today

* DEUCE is a filly that comes from a 12f maiden
* In 28 August races horses from maidens were 0-33
* July-August-September have seen 84 similar races
* Fillies like DEUCE that came from 12f races were 7-201
* Most of them were less exposed than she is
* Those like her from Maidens were 0-42
* DEUCE is not strong statistically
* She couldnt beat a 5yo in a maiden last time getting weight
* She is another not sure to stay

* MY LES is another filly from a 12f maiden
* In 28 August races horses from maidens were 0-33
* July-August-September have seen 84 similar races
* Fillies from maidens were 1-56
* Those with under 5 runs like MY LES were 0-37
* Held by Deuce and hammered last time she looks weak

* PETELLA is another filly from 12f
* She is the wrong sort and has been hammered on recent runs
* ROYAL ARTHUR also comes from 12f
* He has similar poor form
* Hard to see either of this pair winning

DROP THE HAMMER is a filly beaten 34 lengths last
time out. If you take Fillies that lost by 10 + lengths
last time you find a 3-166 record. Those that came up
from 14f or shorter as DROP THE HAMMER does had
a 1-134 record. That worries me straight away. What I
dont like about her was she was already tested and beaten
in a Claimer early in her career and that was off a light
weight and it is offputting that she is only a small horse
and a very cheap horse. She won a 14f race at Haydock
two starts ago which gives her a chance but her flop last
time is a big worry. You can argue that she may have
hated Fibresand last time at Southwell as connections did
but the bottom line is she is a cheap small filly coming
from being hammered 34 lengths last time and that does
not sound an appetising prospect.


* BOLLIN JUDITH is a filly from a 12f 3yo handicap
* July-August-September have seen 84 similar races
* Fillies coming from 3yo handicaps over 12f were 1-87
* She has work to do with that record
* She will stay though and isnt out of this
* That 1-87 record bothers me for a short priced filly


SADASKA

SADASKA has a good profile. If you look at Fillies like
her that came from 14f handicaps you find a 2-13 record
and those with 5-6 career runs like her were 2-5 with both
winners running similar races as her last time. She looks a
big runner statistically. She looks aure to stay and has a
few relatives sucesful and in similar races. The downside
to her chance is despite a progressive profile she hasnt
actually achieved much yet and has work to do on form
and she comes from a stable very hard to rely upon. In
the absence of a better profile I choose SADASKA.

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ANTE POST STATISTICS


TOTESPORT EBOR (HERITAGE HANDICAP)(CLASS 2)(3yo+) 1m6f


* Horses with 13 + career starts are 6-230
* With under 4 runs that year they are 0-56
* With under 5 runs that year they are 1-00
* Horses with 13 + career starts aged 4 are 1-80
* Horses with 13 + career starts raced in Listed/Group class are 0-109
* Horses with 13 + career starts - and 31 + days absence are 0-80
* Horses with 1-2-3 runs that season with 9 + career runs are 0-79
* Horses with 13 + starts that had 9st or more were 0-81
* Horses with 9st or more that raced in Group class were 0-48
* Horses with 9st or more that were not 1st or 2nd last time were 0-86
* Horses with 9st 5lbs or more were 0-61
* Horses in the Top 5 of the weights were 0-106
* Horses with 8st 8lbs or less ran in 18 renewals and won 16 of them
* Winners aged 3 all had under 9 career starts
* Winners aged 3 all had 8st 8lbs or less
* Winners aged 4 were best with 7-12 starts
* Winners aged 4 with under 7 runs (0-19) and 13 + runs (1-80)
* Winners aged 4 that won had no Group class form and 2 + runs that year
* Winners aged 4 were all Male - ran 15 + days ago and were 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time
* 4 year olds that had ran in Group class before are 0-37
* Winners aged 5 all had 7 + career starts and 2 + that year
* Horses aged 5 that ran in Group class before are 0-37
* Winners aged 5 had all ran in class 2 but no higher
* Horses aged 5 that ran 31 + days ago were 0-32
* Horses aged 5 with 8st - 8st 6lbs were 5-16
* Horses aged 5 with 8st 7lbs or more were 1-66
* Horses aged 6 + have a 1-77 record
* Horses aged 6 or more have a 1-80 record and havent won since Sea Pidgeon 1978
* That sole winner was Sergeant Cecil carrying just 8st 12lbs and he won later in Group 2
* Horses that had run in Group 1 or Group 2 were 0-48
* Horses that had run in Group Class before all had under 9 runs
* Those that did not had a 0-75 record
* Horses that had run in Group Class that were aged 4 or more were 0-78
* Horses that had run in Group Class before but came from handicaps were 0-51
* Horses that had run in Group Class before with 8st 12lbs + were 0-60
* Horses that ran within 15 days were 1-74 (Haydock 14f handicap)
* Horses that had 48 + days absence won 4 of the last 21 renewals
* Horses that had 48 + days absence with 9 + career starts were 0-53
* Horses that had 48 + days absence with 3 + runs that year were 0-41
* Horses that had 48 + days absenceaged 3 were 4-7
* Horses that had 48 + days absence aged 4 (1-39) and 5 + (0-31)
* Horses that had 48 + days absence coming from handicaps are 1-53
* Fillies have a 1-37 record in the 21 renewals
* Horses with penalties all came from Goodwood
* No 3 year old carried a penalty
* Horses not 1-2-3-4-5 last time with 21 + runs were 0-35
* Horses not 1-2-3-4-5 last time with 8st 12lbs + were 0-55
* Horses that had not won in their last 6 races were 0-97
* Horses that came from 11.5f or shorter had a 1-95 record
* Horses that came from 11.5f or shorter with 9 + runs were 0-56
* Horses that came from 12f or shorter won 8 renewals
* Horses that came from 12f or shorter were best aged 3 with lightweights
* Horses that came from 12f or shorter with 9 + runs were 1-148
* Horses that came from 12f all aged handicaps were 2-148
* They were 0-94 carrying 8st 7lbs or more
* Horses aged 4 + that came from 12f or shorter were 3-170
* With 9 + runs they were 1-142
* Horses coming from York have a 0-45 record
* Horses that had under 15 starts won 18 of the last 21 renewals
* Horses with 6 or more career wins are 0-58
* Only 3 horses in the last 2 decades had over 15 previous runs
* These were 1992-1997-2002 and they all had the following in common
* They were Males aged 4 or 5 that ran 1-2-3-4-5 last time over at least 12f
* They also ran within a month - had at least 6 runs that year - Less than 8st 7lbs
* They also had not ran in above Class 2 before
* Horses that ran in Listed Class and no higher had a 1-80 record *(could be a bad stat)
* Horses that in the last fortnight have done very badly. Just the 1997 winner managed it from 75 that tried
* Fillies have a weak 1-37 record
* All 18 horses with 4lbs penalties lost - although 2 with 7lbs penalties won
* All 20 winners won within their last 6 races. Those that didnt were 0-97
* Horses with 9st 5lbs or more have a 0-56 record
* Horses with 9st 9lbs or more have a 0-30 record

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