No Account Bet

No Selections

It is one of those midweek days with not a lot of choice
and just one Flat card on Grass that is full of maidens or
races that are on the tough side. I think its a day for each way doubles. I have 2 National Hunt horses I fancy and see them as candidates for an each way double. There is also a horse at Lingfield that offers a similar edge.

I am going with No selections on the day as any staking
would be complicated enough. Personally I am having one
Multiple Bet on the day on my 3 strongest choices who all
look worth betting in each way doubles. The Following 3
horses are all suggested to anyone wanting a bet in Three
each way doubles. I will leave the staking to you but I am
having the bet and staking what I would normally do for
any selection. More choice tomorrow onwards.

Lingfield 2.00 - Akmal 2/1
Kelso 2.25 - Catch Bob 6/4
Worcester 6.20 -Shut The Bar 13/8

****************************************************
****************************************************


T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G


Wednesday today and the first message since Monday
and we should go through to the end of the week now.
I will just get Mondays selection out of the way. I have
no idea why Wavertree Warrior tailed off in last place
but clearly something went wrong with him and he was
beaten after just a couple of furlongs. Have to file that
one in the yet to be explained. Need to get rid of this
weather as its making things harder at the Moment.

Some Good tracks tomorrow. Today we only have one Turf meeting at GOODWOOD one of the harder tracks and throw in a Sand meeting at Lingfield and the warning signs are there. I'll start briefly with some National Hunt thoughts before a Lingfield Paragraph and finally a run through of Goodwood.


N A T I O N A L H U N T

If I had to offer up my strongest profiles today on the Jumps it would be SHUT THE BAR tonight at Worcester in the 2m Novice Hurdle at 6.20pm and CATCH BOB in the first race
at Kelso. Both horses run in Novice Hurdles and both horses
won Maiden Hurdles last time out.


Worcester 6.20 - SHUT THE BAR

SHUT THE BAR has just won a maiden hurdle last time an
excellent sign. Horses doing just that win over 50% of the
time in similar races and throw in a recent run and the fact he is a 4yo and the strike rate just improves. The one thing I do not like about the race is that there are no strong negatives to help reduce the field down. Horses like Vacario look to hold fair chances. I feel I can beat Penyfan Dawn and most others. I would have prefered less opposition to SHUT THE BAR but I think he has the strongest profile in the race and in any National Hunt race today and I think he will win the 6.20pm.

Kelso 2.25 - CATCH BOB

Another Novice Hurdler that has just won a Maiden hurdle
and in May and June these horses win over half the Novice
Hurdles they run in and CATCH BOB looks a likely type
to follow up his recent win. I rate him considerably stronger than SEVEN IS LUCKY well beaten in a Novice Handicap. If you look at all 323 Novice Hurdles in May and June over 2m-2m 4f you find horses from Novice Handicaps Struggle and none had under 3 runs that year as he does and with 1 run since July 2008 I think SEVEN IS LUCKY is beatable. ANY GIVEN DAY is an unraced 4yo and only 5 of the 323 winners could say that (5-106). You have to respect
him as he was decent on the flat but his sire hasnt had any
National Hunt winners yet and surely the percentage call
has to be with CATCH BOB. There doesnt look many to offer much more resistance. KAYAKA is a mare from a Bumper a horrible thought. ALWAYS BEST hasnt shown much at all yet. I have a unpleasant memory from betting CATCH BOB a few runs ago where he let me down for a winning each way double and I believe he wasnt running on merit that day but that was then and this is now and on his last run I would make CATCH BOB the likely winner of this race. I think he should win this.

****************************************************
****************************************************

L I N G F I E L D

Not much I can say here. In the opening maiden race I see
money for SILVADOR but I would be inclined to leave him
alone coming up over 6f in trip and with very few precedents winning like him. I would be most drawn to AKMAL as the John Dunlop record in maidens with experienced horses is a good one. For those that cant stomach an each way bet around 9/4 I would steer you towards AKMAL in an each way double with either of my National Hunt selections today.

If I was playing in the 3.10 race I would probably follow the money with CLASSICAL RHYTHM each way. In the seller
at 3.45 I would be worried about FYODOR as although he is
the class horse on the ratings he finished behind some very low rated horses last time and I see SWINBROOK as safer. I didnt want ONE MORE ROUND aged 11 with a months break but I wouldnt discount him either. Messy sort of race and maybe a split stake bet. BATELEUR to Place and SWINBROOK to win could be the sort of split staked bet that could pay twice.


****************************************************
****************************************************



GOODWOOD 2.15

RACING UK STAKES (HANDICAP)
(CLASS 4) (3yo,0-85) 1m1f

7/2 December Draw, 4/1 Advisor, 7/1 Forte Dei Marmi,
8/1 Becausewecan, 8/1 Silver Games, 8/1 Star Links, 10/1
Kaabari, 11/1 Sandor, 12/1 Retro, 14/1 Herschel, 16/1 Lady Rusty.

* This is a 9f Handicap for 0-83 rated horses
* Goodwood has only 6 renewals
* The race has shifted in Class from Class 2 to Class 4
* This makes Goodwood's renewals unsafe
* There has been 69 similar 9f handicaps in May
* Fillies have a poor record in the 69 races
* They won just 7 of the 69 races
* Those with under 5 career starts were 1-106
* KAABARI - LADY RUSTY fail that
* Fillies having their seasonal debuts were 0-51
* LADY RUSTY fails that
* Fillies from 8f or shorter were 2-128
* None had the profile of SILVER GAMES
* I dont feel this will be won by a filly
* Only 7 of the 69 winners came from 7f or shorter
* Horses from 2yo maidens over 7f had a 1-39 record
* None were absent as long as FORTE DEI MARMI
* STAR LINKS also comes from a 2yo maiden
* None had over 3 runs as STAR LINKS does
* The only 2 horses that came from 6f races were similar
* They came from 2yo Sales Races in Class 2
* RETRO comes from a 6f nursery
* Only 3 winners came from Nurseries
* They all had achieved more than RETRO
* RETRO looks weak from a 6f Nursery
* SANDOR has just won a 3yo maiden
* Horses doing that were 2-41
* None had 7 runs as he does
* None had the weight he does either
* I looked at all horses from 3yo maidens with 1 run that year
* 7 horses won with that profile
* None had over 4 runs and SANDOR has 6 runs
* SANDOR looks unimpressive statistically
* Horses from maidens were 0-10 in this race anyway
* HERSCHEL comes from a 3yo handicap with 1 run this year
* BECAUSEWECAN comes from a 3yo handicap with 1 run this year
* I looked at horses like these with a months absence
* The record was 1 winner from 29 runners
* That sole winner had achieved far more and was a filly
* HERSCHEL doesnt have the profile of any of the 69 runners
* BECAUSEWECAN doesnt have the profile of any as well
* ADVISOR has a strong profile
* I dont have any problem with him
* DECEMBER DRAW also has a reasonable profile

CONCLUSION

I would have FORTE DEI MARMI in the "Unproven" category
rather than a Negative one and I feel the same about Becausewecan as well. The stronger more proven profiles belong to ADVISOR and DECEMBER DRAW. I just felt ADVISOR had the better profile.

I looked at all 9f handicaps for 3 year olds since 2000

* Horses that won a 3yo handicap last time
* Horses that had 3-4-5-6 career runs
* Horses with 2 runs that season
* The record was W W L W L W W
* ADVISOR fits that profile and just gets the vote

Win Bet ADVISOR
Saver on DECEMBER DRAW

****************************************************
****************************************************

GOODWOOD 2.50

EBF CUCUMBER MAIDEN FILLIES' STAKES
(CLASS 5) (2yo) 6f

11/4 La Pantera, 5/1 Velvet Band, 11/2 Baoli, 9/1 Anjomarba, 10/1 Falling Angel, 10/1 Flyinflyout, 10/1 It's A Deal, 12/1 Agony And Ecstasy, 12/1 Hot Pursuits, 20/1 Ashkalara, 33/1 Easy Terms, 50/1 Princess Podge.

This is a Fillies maiden over 6f for 2 year olds. Goodwood
has 9 renewals of this race and there are 69 similar races at all other tracks. It doesnt matter if you are raced or unraced in this race. The Two horses with experience in this race are LA PANTERA and ANJOMARBA. Of the two I would be happier to bet LA PANTERA as he is a Hannon horse who
has won this race 4 times before and in the 69 similar races at all tracks Not one horse won with 4 or more career runs as ANJOMARBA does and she may be a bit exposed with 4 runs. That said an unraced winner is just as likely as either of the experienced horses winning. Interesting that the Four times Richard Hannon won this race he did so with unraced horses so whilst his LA PANTERA has had a run he also runs the unraced BAOLI and there is every chance she may win this first time out. If I had to bet LA PANTERA I'd see her in an each way double as there are some unraced horses that could easily prove good enough. My gut feeling is that an unraced Filly will take this making a selection futile. If I was having a bet in the race which I am not then I would be looking at a place bet at odds on around 1.5 on La Pantera as whilst she may be vulnerable to an unraced horse there shouldnt be three that beat her.

****************************************************
****************************************************

GOODWOOD 4.00

SUSSEX STAYERS STAKES (HANDICAP)
(CLASS 4) (4yo+,0-80) 2m

Evs Kayf Aramis, 11/2 Sweetheart, 10/1 Isabelonabicycle,
11/1 Calculating, 11/1 Cleaver, 12/1 Bold Adventure, 12/1
Look To This Day, 14/1 Epsom Salts, 16/1 American Spin,
20/1 Ned Ludd, 25/1 Takafu.

KAYF ARAMIS dominates this 2m Handicap after winning
so easily at York last week. Not my kind of price at 4/6 but I wouldnt want to oppose him. I would need to be offered a very strong profile for an alternative and I cant see one. With ISABELONABICYCLE you have an inexperienced filly which isnt ideal. LOOK TO THIS DAY is a 4yo filly that has to go from 12f to 16f. CLEAVER is an 8 year old with just one run this year and a months absence. SWEETHEART is another mare with a nasty absence. To bet any of these I would want a weak favourite and we dont have that. Overall I didnt see a horse I wanted to oppose KAYF ARAMIS with and feel he should win the race.

****************************************************
****************************************************

GOODWOOD 4.35

TOTEEXACTA MEDIAN AUCTION MAIDEN STAKES
(CLASS 5) (3-4yo) 1m1f192y

9/4 Chicora, 5/1 Dome Rocket, 6/1 Barter, 6/1 Kris Kin Line, 10/1 Sabotage . 14/1 Pallaton, 16/1 Aasifa, Elliptical, 20/1 Sitwell 33/1 Jewelled, Scarlett Angel, Double Moon, Princess Soraya.

This is a 9.5f maiden for horses aged 3- 4. There are no past renewals of this race. There are 98 all aged maidens in May at 9f and 10f and statistically thats the best option we have to go and extract trends from. CHICORA is a filly that comes from a 3yo maiden. Fillies like her with 2 runs had a 2-104 record and both these horses look to have weak profiles. You cant rule out unraced horses who have a 3-59 record but equally there is no reason to bet them and SABOTAGE has to be respected but is not considered for selection. PALLATON was beaten too far
for me last time. The following 3 horses are all fine statistically and had profiles that won some of the 98 races. KRIS KIN LINE is reasonaly fine. Both DOME ROCKET and BARTER are also similar to a few other winners. DOME ROCKET may well have enough to place and I'd see him as a reasonable place only bet if around 4/5. I can see one of KRIS KIN LINE or BARTER beating him though. I think the best option is DOME ROCKET to place and take a chance on KRIS KIN LINE to win the race.

****************************************************
****************************************************

GOODWOOD 5.10

GOLDRING SECURITY SERVICES MAIDEN FILLIES'
STAKES (CLASS 5) (3yo) 7f

13/8 Miss Tango Hotel, 7/2 Visite Royale, 7/1 Aurora Sky,
10/1 Aphrodite's Rock, 10/1 Fantasy Land,
10/1 Margarita, 11/1 So Blissful, 50/1 Baheeya.

This is a 3yo maiden over 7f for Fillies. There has been 16
Goodwood renewals and 43 similar races elsewhere. I ran a
few of these through the 43 races for similar winners. Only
4 of the 43 winners had ran 3 or more times before. Thats
something MISS TANGO HOTEL has done. I looked at
the 4 horses that had done that. Those with just 1 run that season were 0-20 and that is my only problem with her.
VISITE ROYALE was strong statistically. Several similar
races were won by identical types. I found Eight horses
with the same profile to FANTASY LAND but none won
but I would respect her but I felt the best profile belonged to VISITE ROYALE

****************************************************
****************************************************

GOODWOOD 5.45

TURFTV.CO.UK APPRENTICE STAKES (HANDICAP)
(CLASS 6) (4yo+,0-65) 5f

7/2 Sands Crooner, 13/2 Cosmic Destiny, 9/1 Bluebok,
10/1 Miss Firefly, 10/1 Sofinella, 14/1 Spic 'n Span, 14/1
Step It Up, 16/1 Brandywell Boy, 16/1 Brazilian Brush,
16/1 Peopleton Brook, 20/1 Calabaza, 25/1 Maggie Kate
25/1 Pic Up Sticks, 25/1 Ramblin Bob, 25/1 Wicksy Creek
33/1 Pegasus Dancer, 33/1 Solemn.

* This is an Apprentice Handicap over 5f
* Goodwood has 16 renewals of this race
* There has been 36 similar races elsewhere
* There has been 143 similar handicaps for all jockeys
* I would be against the following types of horse
* Horses Drawn 1 and 2 shouldnt be able to win from their draws
* WICKSY CREEK - MAGGIE KATE are rejected
* Fillies with 1 run that season have not won a race
* MISS FIREFLY is out as a filly with 1 run this year
* PIC UP STICKS is out as a 10yo seasonal debutants
* SOLEMN is out as a 4yo debutant from a maiden
* CALABAZA doesnt appeal with 1 run this year
* Not as an exposed 7yo well beaten in that race
* PEGASUS DANCER didnt do enough last time
* BRAZILIAN BRUSH has too long an absence for a 4yo
* RAMBLIN BOB has too long an absence for a 4yo
* I looked at 143 races for exposed horses that ran this year
* 97 of the 143 winners could say this
* None had been absent over 7 weeks though (0-53)
* STEP IT UP fails that and is rejected

NEUTRAL PROFILES

* SPIC ´N SPAN is an exposed 4yo and comes from sand
* All his best form is at Southwell
* He wouldnt be my choice
* COSMIC DESTINY is a horse I an neutral about
* I havent found a similar winner to her in 143 other races
* I dont like her age-draw-absence either
* PEOPLETON BROOK was well beaten in this race in 2008
* I found found 1 winner with a similar profile
* BLUEBOX is an 8yo
* Horses aged 8 or more in this race were 1-31
* They didnt score that well in the 143 other races
* They are just 1-92 since 2003
* Because he is Fit I would be neutral about him

STRONG PROFILES

* BRANDYWELL BOY has a chance
* I have found similar winners in 143 other races
* SOFINELLA has an excellent profile
* The 1992-1994 winners were similar types
* Both those winners came from the same Bath races
* They were all both exposed mares with 2-3 runs this year
* I dont have any problem with SOFINELLA
* SANDS CROONER has a strong profile
* Fit and in Form and penalised horses do well
* I see SANDS CROONER as a saver rather than a selection
* For a selection SOFINELLA would be unsafe
* BRANDYWELL BOY is also unsafe
* Both are decent prices and may be best in a split staked bet
* Overall though I felt the race was too open

****************************************************
****************************************************