No Account Bet

No Selections

Starting the week with No Bet. Going to be a slow start to
the week building carefully something I need to do after a
reckless time. Tomorrow I may just hit two handicaps at
Goodwood hard and throw the kitchen sink at them trying
to find a decent priced winner. I dont have messages on both Wednesday and Thursday because of a funeral but there will be on Sunday and most action will be towards the end of the week rather than the beginning.

I have done what I can at Windsor and Yarmouth today. I'm
happy enough with it as a message but nothing to have a big
bet on today. Plenty of things to say in a few races though.

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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G



Start of a Fresh week today. We are coming to the end of a
very dissapointing month. The grounds been so inconsistent
but thats just one reason for a very poor July and like me you will be glad to see the back of it. I will be very careful with my selections and account bets in August and dont rule me out of a very good month because I cant be as bad as I have been so far this month. There will be no service on Wednesday and Thursday as I have a funeral to go to. I will do Sunday as a replacement but a two day break from messages will have a positive affect anyway and I wont make the mistakes that I made this month. So lets hope for a good week to end the month of misery. I say that but one decent winner and the month will be in profit and the numbers are no where near as bad as they feel psychologically and I will turn it around. Staying with YARMOUTH and WINDSOR today with both meetings previewed today.





Y A R M O U T H


I have to leave the first race. Four fancied horses and all have problems. DIAMOND AFFAIR had a great excuse from a bad draw last time but no horse lost by as far as she did and came out and won so quickly. No fillies Auction like this went to a horse dropping from 7f to 5f as SHIBHAN does. There are very few winners with 1 run and an absence of over a month as RIGHT RAVE has to overcome and PETER'S FOLLIE is unraced. I suppose you can say she has done least wrong but the race is too complicated.


The maiden at 3.30 also has four runners that look stronger
than the rest. I dont fancy JANEIRO much having come from
a thrashing over 6f last time and his draw in Stall One bothers me as well. In the last couple of years Yarmouth has had 48 races at 7f that had 9 or more runners and horses drawn in stall one had a 0-45 record. He isnt for me. SHE'S OK isn't my first choice either. Fillies like her that came from maidens over 5f had a 2-58 record which doesnt look great and neither of the pair that did it had 3 or more runs as she does so I will
pass her up as well. I would look to either KEYTA BONITA
or GO FORTH NORTH. I though KEYTA BONITA had an
excellent profile with just one run in a Newmarket maiden and the 1999 winner of this race had an identical profile. It's a very tight call but I just feel GO FORTH NORTH might have a bit more about her and I would go with GO FORTH NORTH.


YARMOUTH 4.00

MARTIN FOULGER MEMORIAL HANDICAP
(CLASS 4)(3yo+ 0-80) 7f3y

3/1 Oh So Saucy, 4/1 Autumn Blades, 9/2 Dukes Art, 5/1 Arteus, 6/1 Caprio, 8/1 Catalan Bay, 10/1 Baariq, 20/1 Ocean Legend.

* This is a 7f Handicap for 0-78 rated horses
* Just 8 runners but still wide open
* July and August have seen 481 similar races run
* I cant find a winner like BAARIQ
* Unplaced in a 3yo handicap and inexperienced
* BAARIQ looks opposable
* Horses aged 3 coming from maidens have struggled (5-125)
* Since 1997 these types had a 1-72 record
* Horses aged 3 that won maidens last time were 0-30
* DUKES ART fails that and I didnt like his profile
* ARTEUS also comes from a maiden race
* No horse came from a maiden when as exposed as him
* DUKES ART and ARTEUS are opposed
* OH SO SAUCY is a filly with just 2 runs this season
* I looked at fillies in 481 races with two runs this year
* Those like her that hadnt ran within 2 weeks were 5-115
* None of the 5 that did it carried as much weight as her
* Those like her with more than a dozen runs were just 2-37
* Both those winners had 8st 6lbs or less and she has 9st 11lbs
* I am uncomfortable with OH SO SAUCY
* I cant find a winner with a very close profile in 481 races
* CATALAN BAY is a mare from a 6f handicap
* Mares doing that had a 6-200 record in the 481 races
* Those aged 5 or more like her had a poor 1-70 record
* Thats a poor record and she has ran just twice since Febuary
* CATALAN BAY looks underraced to me
* There are 3 profiles I can live with

AUTUMN BLADES - OCEAN LEGEND - CAPRIO

* These three still have some issues to answer
* CAPRIO is a 4yo that comes from a Claimer
* 4 year olds doing that had a 5-58 record
* None managed to carry as much as 9st 13lbs though
* He gets a lot of credit as he ran well in that claimer recently
* I can forgive him his weight but there are other issues
* He has never won at 7f or more before in 14 attempts
* He has never won from a mark of 78 before either
* That just worries me with CAPRIO
* OCEAN LEGEND has no major problems statistically
* The doubts with him are that he is back on turf
* Almost all his form is on the sand and he's just 5 turf runs
* There could be an argument sand suits him better
* Throw in a first time visor and you have another issue
* He also drops back to 7f for the first time in 22 races
* OCEAN LEGEND is unsafe but still shortlisted
* AUTUMN BLADES certainly has the safest profile
* Slight doubt with Cheekpieces now being fitted
* I would also worry if the ground was softer than expected
* I am worried with the overnight and morning rain
* In 481 races more horses like him won than any of his rivals

SELECTION - OCEAN LEGEND each way

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YARMOUTH 5.00

FIRSTBET.COM 0800 230 0800 £50
MATCHED BET HANDICAP(CLASS 6)(4yo+ 0-65) 2m


4/1 No Rules, 8/1 Alvee, 8/1 Dazzling Begum, 8/1 Squirtle, 12/1 Rose Bien, 12/1 Royal Premier, 16/1 Baan, 16/1 Lady Sorcerer, 16/1 Snowberry Hill, 25/1 Chiff Chaff, 33/1 Leyte Gulf, 33/1 Mid Valley, 33/1 Moon Mix, 66/1 Sugar State.

SELECTION - DAZZLING BEGUN e/w

The 5pm handicap is a 2 mile race for horses rated 0-65. Yarmouth have had 14 similar races and there were 159 similar races at all the other tracks in July and August. The weakest fancied runner has to be ALVEE as a female seasonal debutant with 3 runs. No Filly won first time out or had just 3 runs or came from a 3yo maiden. The 39 day absence puts me off SQUIRTLE and exposd older mare and
no female that old defied that sort of absence and although winning last time she has had just 1 run since January 2009. Another older exposed mare with an absence is ROSE BIEN and I see her as weak as well. I couldnt have LADY SORCERER another female with an absence up from 11f and no similar winners won. CHIFF CHAFF is impossible to rate coming from a 24 length hurdle defeat just five
days ago but she looks unsafe and potentially underraced this year. LEYTE GULF wont be fit. MOON MIX - SUGAR STATE are both outclassed as is MID VALLEY. Hard to like SNOWBERRY HILL on recent form. There are a few I would put on the "possibles" list in that they had less than impressive profiles but were not completely dead or out of this. I would add BAAN and ROYAL PREMIER to a list like that. In terms of the shortlist it has to be four runners with one I fancy most. Any unexposed 4 year old that won last time out has to be given a lot of respect so I would have to shortlist the two doing that so NO RULES and DAZZLING BEGUN are shortlisted.


SELECTION - DAZZLING BEGUN e/w

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YARMOUTH 5.30


NORFOLK AND SUFFOLK ANIMAL TRUST LADY RIDERS´
HANDICAP(CLASS 6)(3yo+ 0-65) 1m3y

5/1 Mick Is Back, 13/2 Munich, 8/1 Sion Hill, 9/1 Winterfell, 10/1 Rock Anthem, 12/1 Whotsit, 16/1 Amber Ridge, 16/1 Libre, 20/1 Applesnap, 20/1 Barataria, 20/1 Highway Magic, 25/1 A Dream Come True, 25/1 Gifted Heir, 25/1 Paparaazi, 50/1 Dawn Wind.

I didnt want to get heavily involved in this Mile handicap. Had I previewed the race I'd have opposed MICK IS BACK after a big defeat just three days ago. I would have opposed WINTERFELL who had a bad profile as a filly from a 3yo handicap. Those few fillies that did that all had more runs than she does and those like her coming from 3yo handicaps over 7f or less were 0-55 and as she comes from a 6f handicap she left me cold. I didnt like her
profile at all. I was also against WHOTSIT unimpressive in a 3yo handicap last time and badly drawn. I didnt want ROCK ANTHEM with a very inexperienced jockey. I didnt think HIGHWAY MAGIC would win and was unfit. I cant have A DREAM COME TRUE who is another who may not be fit as is PAPARAAZI aged 7 with just 2 runs this year. I would have to argue the best Two runners are both SION HILL and MUNICH

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W I N D S O R


I would have suggested GHOST in the first race in an each
way double. That seems to be the most sensible option. It
may seem unappetising but BLOCK PARTY in the 8.15pm
could be an each way bet to nothing with GHOST.


I ran the first half dozen in the 6.40pm through some tests and they all passed and I didnt think I could rule out any of the fancied horse in that race so as a handicap that looks quite competetive I dont feel I can say much. My best guess would be a lightly raced horse like ELA GORRIE MOU.


The Maiden race at 7.10 looks best left to Richard Hannon and CHOCOLATE COOKIE. His form in a Sales race is much better than his rivals. He will win if he repeats that. Statistically very strong. My only fear is his 3rd race in 16 days and just 9 days after his Newbury run could be a problem. He would be my choice.



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WINDSOR 7.45

SOUTHERN COUNTIES FUELS FILLIES´ HANDICAP
(CLASS 4)(3yo+ 0-80) 6f

5/2 Sister Clement, 11/2 Shangani, 11/2 Spring Green,
13/2 Keep Dancing, 7/1 Lucy Brown, 9/1 Miss Chamanda,
10/1 Dressed To Dance, 16/1 Gentle Guru,25/1 Top Town
Girl, 25/1 Welsh Opera, 33/1 Bonne.

The only issue for me in this race is that I want to try and oppose SISTER CLEMENT but really was not sure whether
there was too much strength in depth in the race and I am
worried this is much harder than it looks with so many that
can not be assessed as thes fillies are lightly raced. Firsty it is a 0-77 handicap for fillies and these are my reasons why I want to oppose the favourite in this race

* July and August have seen 109 Fillies handicaps
* Fillies that came from 5f races were fine
* However 3 year old fillies doing that were just 2-71
* Thats a concern and a poor record for her
* In that 2-71 record those from Maidens were 2-6
* Those from Handicaps were 0-57
* SISTER CLEMENT fails that and it concerns me
* 57 Horses aged 3 came from 5f handicaps and all lost

I would oppose SISTER CLEMENT. Its just whether the
race is too unsafe and risky. I am prepared to oppose the
outsiders Bonne and Welsh Opera looking weak. Cant make
SHANGANI a negative but none of the 109 winners were
similar and I would have wanted at least one more run and
she isnt for me. TOP TOWN GIRL has been well backed
but I wanst impressed statistically. Her absence could be an issue. Shes a 3yo with Group race form and in the 109 races horses that age doing that were 0-25 and I am uncomfortable about her profile. MISS CHAMANDA is hard to fancy after a poor run last week with so many improvers against her as well. DRESSED TO DANCE will probably find at least one of the younger horses too good. LUCY BROWN is a puzzle as she is the stablemate of SISTER CLEMENT who I want to oppose. Not sure which is the official second string but assuming its LUCY BROWN it wouldnt worry me too much as I felt she had the best profile of the two. What does wory me about LUCY BROWN is that she has just two runs this year. There are 15 renewals of this race and all 15 winners had at least 3 runs that season. I looked at 109 races for horses like LUCY BROWN that came from 7f handicaps and the results showed horses doing that were significantly better when having had more runs and I just felt she was a run or two short. I suppose of the 3 year olds the most solid are KEEP DANCING and SPRING GREEN. I think they are the most solid of the younger age group but both have Good but not exceptional profiles and because of that I didnt want to get excited about them. The selection is GENTLE GURU. There has been some money for her this morning and its not hard to see why. She is an older horse and they have won the last 4 renewals. Older horses have won seven of the last eight renewals. She is not exposed for an older horse. She is well handicapped having won from a 2lbs higher mark. She drops from a Class 3 0-93 handicap to a 0-77 class 4 handicap. She wasnt beaten far last time. The form has already been boosted as the 4th came out and won. I dont see any reason why GENTLE GURU cant win this

SELECTION - GENTLE GURU Each Way


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In the maiden at 8.15pm I couldnt bet ALTIMATUM who
ran just 4 days ago and lost by over 10 lengths. Horses in all 3yo maidens around this trip that lost by that distance and more running within a weak were 0-70 and its asking plenty for him to bounce back. I was expecting to find any horse like BLOCK PARTY that ran well in an handicap last time would score exceptionally well in these races but the record is only average and that surprised me. That said there are no obvious alternatives. I would have to go with him as the most likely winner but dont see him as an outstanding bet and would be tempted to use him in an each way double.

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WINDSOR 8.45

SPORTINGBET.COM HANDICAP(CLASS 5)
(3yo+ 0-70) 1m3f135y

5/2 Hollow Green, 11/4 Fine Tolerance, 11/2 Ubiquitous,
13/2 Lord Theo, 13/2 Megalala, 8/1 Everyman, 14/1 Amical Risks, 25/1 Lady Maya.

This handicap is an all aged affair for horses rated 0-64 over 11f and 135 yards. There has been 536 races in both July and August like this one. In the 536 races I looked at horses like HOLLOW GREEN. She is a 3yo filly and they won 16 of the 536 races. However none managed to win with more than 13 career starts and HOLLOW GREEN has as many as 20 runs. I couldnt possibly make her a negative after she won a better race last time albeit an outsider from bottomweight but there has still been 536 of these races and no 3 year old filly was as exposed as her and she has to step up in trip and I felt she was unimpressive statistically. FINE TOLERANCE is the other 3 year old filly and she didnt impress that much either. I looked at all 3yo fillies with 1-2-3 runs that season and that also had under 7 career runs as she does. When coming from distancesof 10f or shorter as she does they were 2-58 and none came via handicaps as she does. I felt both 3yo fillies had no more than average profiles. It depends on what strength in depth they face. EVERYMAN is not for me coming from a 10f selling race. In 536 races horses coming from sellers last time over 11f or shorter were 0-61 so she is out. LADY MAYA's easy to oppose. AMICAL RISKS is a seasonal debutant and is probably best opposed but if money comes form him there has been winners like him in 536 races and I couldnt be strongly against him. MEGALALA won last time but he is 8 now and on a career high mark and although horses like him won in the 536 races none did it with anything close to 10st that he carries and he didnt look the one to be with with that weight
and handicap mark. UBIQUITOUS has an acceptable profile
but I would have liked another run this year. I looked at all exposed males like LORD THEO that came from handicaps
over 9f or shorter. Those like him that didnt win that handicap were 1-122 and he has not got a profile I would consider. Thats every runner. I would make EVERYMAN - LORD THEO and LADY MAYA negatives. I wouldnt want MEGALALA either. If AMICAL RISKS shows no sign of being well backed on his seasonal debut he can be left alone as well. I would see this between HOLLOW GREEN - FINE TOLERANCE and maybe UBIQUITOUS. My final selection is FINE TOLERANCE but
none really grabbed me as having an outanding profile.

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