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It has turned into a 9 race Saturday message now the
weather issues have been resolved. Lingfield has Pole
position today with 6 previews and I only have two at
Wolverhampton and 1 at Haydock. The Top of The
Message has done well lately. Again Choice has been
restricted a little so I'll do my best to get today right.


Really scrappy today for a Saturday and with little
National Hunt Support. I warned it would not be a
Vintage Saturday message. Yesterdays 6/1 winner
will have bought me some good will and I'm going
to exploit that a bit today but going with 2 horses
as mentions that are both outsiders in their races.
It will be an achievement to get a winner today in
these races so Hopeful not confident but I do feel
there are good arguments to say these are backable

Wolverhamton 1.20
BOLODENKA 5/1
Win Bet

Lingfield 12.20
MIND THE MONARCH 33/1
Each Way

I have had some 33/1 about Mind The Monarch the
outsider in the 12.20 at Lingfield. Difficult task at
todays weights. Horses with exact profiles in these
races to her had a W W W record from 3 runners so
I dont see why she cant nick a race like this despite
looking the weakest runner in the race. Speculative
and Luck needed for sure but you dont see many 33/1
chances in small fields when they've perfect profiles
so 33/1 looks big for MIND THE MONARCH.

BOLODENKA is 5/1 but also the outsider in a small
4 runner race. I think he ran well last time and it did
give me some encouragement that he can win this. I
could be made to look silly as his trainer also has the
favourite today in the race. I think the favourite has
an unimpressive profile. All 4 winners have chances
in this race so no negatives at all but BOLODENKA
has been brilliant placed rated 85 and facing only a
0-74 handicap and you can go back years for the last
time he ran against such low rated horses.

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G


I have to be happy with yesterdays message as there
were winners and KING OF RHYTHM the main bet
won at 6/1 and we are not doing much wrong at the
moment so lets hope that carries on before Racing
takes a break for a few days next week.


Today is weather affected. There are 9 Previews
today. Six at Lingfield. Two at Wolverhampton.
Just the One at Haydock. It was pointless doing
a big Haydock spread with the inspection earlier
and big field races that take hours to do. That's
left us with 9 races to consider on a freezing day.




LINGFIELD 12.20

Bet On Today´s Football At totesport.com
Claiming Stakes (CLASS 6) (2yo) 6f

11/4 Ramamara, 7/2 Zubova, 4/1 Anjomarba,
6/1 Miss Lesley, 7/1 Yeadon, 10/1 Tamarind Hill,
14/1 Clear Ice, 33/1 Mind The Monarch.


* This is a 6f Claimer for 2 year olds
* We have just 20 similar races at this time of year

The sample size of 20 isnt big and that causes us some
problems. So to does some tightly rated horses and all
the usual cat and mouse tactical issues here. Statistically
the horse with the best profile is also the worst rated in
the race and a big price and that's MIND A MONARCH.
I will tell you how I arrived at that conclusion. The 20
Claimers like this show that horses from a selling race
over 5f and 6f have a 0-27 record. MISS LESLEY has
to overcome that as does TAMARIND HILL and also
YEARDON. Horses from 6f Nurseries won races but it
is interesting they were all fillies and CLEAR ICE is a
male and no male horse did it.

ANJOMARBA and RAMAMARA are more exposed
than any horse coming from a claiming race. I feel the
Draw could also be interesting. The last 17 races over
this Course and Distance show that Stall 1- 2 are 0-34
and have not won any of the last 17 races. Thats not
a great sign for RAMAMARA and YEARDON as both
are drawn in stalls 1 and 2. ZUBOVA comes from a 7f
claimer and all 9 horses doing that were beaten. Not one
of these horses fail a strong angle. There are unlikely to
be any with just a few similar races run and that tells me
anything can win this race. MIND THE MONARCH has
to be given a chance. I looked at the record of all Fillies
from Claiming races. There were 5 winners and they all
had 7-12 runs as she has. The record of these types were
5-8 and if you extract the ones like her that come from
5f Claimers the record was W W W from 3 horses. I'd
argue in the light of any solid profiel elsewhere and with
the draw helping her MIND THE MONARCH is worth
a bet at a big price in a race anything can win.

SELECTION

MIND THE MONARCH Each Way 33/1


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HAYDOCK 12.40

5/4 My Moment, 5/2 Quwetwo, 3/1 Bedlam Boy,
12/1 Al Co, 20/1 Tartan Snow.

BEDLAM BOY - Brilliant Profile
QUWETWO - Brilliant Profile

Two of the best Novice Chase systems I know clash in
this race and thats a shame. Horses that came from a
Grade 1 Hurdle like QUWETWO were excellent and
those like QUWETWO had a W W W W W record
from 5 horses that tried. Horses like BEDLAM BOY
who have just won 2 Novice Chases on the trot were
also excellent and had a 7-10 Record. I think one will
win. Its annoying they both clash. Its also annoying
that MY MOMENT is also perfectly fine statistically
as well. My best hope would be a non runner from the
two strong runners. In the absence of that I think it's
a red hot Novice and BEDLAM BOY is the best bet.

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LINGFIELD 12.50

CWB Controls Novice Stakes (CLASS 5) (2yo) 7f

10/11 Stargaze, 15/2 Kai Mook, 12/1 American Agent,
14/1 Exceedthewildman, 14/1 Minortransgression,
100/1 One Cool Slash.

This is a 7f Novice Race for 2 year olds. There are just
17 similar races at this time of year so nothing will be
thrown up as significant. You can argue fillies won just
1 race in a 1-48 record and should be avoided but that
doesnt help as only Kai Mook and One Cool Slash are
fillies. At the weights STARGAZE has a dominant edge.
He is rated 102 and whilst flatterd by that he could be
rated a lot less than that and still be expected to be able
to beat an unraced horse like MINORTRANSGRESSION
or AMERICAN AGENT. I think STARGAZE has to be
the bet here. I was going to have tipped Robust Wish in
this but frustratingly he is a non runner. Now that has
happened I cant see past STARGAZE.

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WOLVERHAMPTON 1.20

£32 Free At 32Red.com Handicap
(CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-87) 1m141y

11/8 Bawaardi, 7/2 Justcallmehandsome
11/2 Bolodenka, 11/2 Quick Release.

The 1st thing that crossed my mind was that we had
a class horse in BOLODENKA rated 85 having had a
rating of 95 recently - Taking on a 0-74 class field.

That makes BOLODENKA look better class than
these and brilliantly placed. The flaw in the argument
is whether BOLODENKA is able to run to his mark
and there is a doubt about that. Throw in the added
complication that Richard Fahey his trainer also has
the favourite BAWAARDI in the race. Statistically
I am opposing BAWAARDI. I looked at all similar
handicaps at this time of year. Horses like him who
came from 3yo handicaps had a poor 2-56 record
and both winners had 9 + runs and he has 6 and they
also had form in Class 2 races before and he doesnt
so I think BAWAARDI is vulnerable. He has had a
recent run but no 3yo won with a recent run anyway
and I am opposing him. The issue for me is whether
BOLODENKA can beat the two other horses. Both
have ability and are capable of winning a race like
this. Neither of them have the class that He has.
He comes from one of the better Claiming races
which relaxes me a bit. I think BOLODENKA has
to be the bet as he must be in the easiest race he has
ran in for a long time.

SELECTION - BOLODENKA

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LINGFIELD 1.25

William Lennox 87th Birthday Handicap
(Div I) (CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-70)5f

7/2 Lithaam, 4/1 Femme De Fer, 9/2 Decider,
5/1 Fromsong, 10/1 Bo Mcginty, 10/1 The Geester,
12/1 Love You Louis, 14/1 Kyle, 16/1 Steel City Boy,
20/1 Ten Down.

* This is a 5f Handicap for 0-70 rated horses
* There has been 128 similar races in December
* The Draw Suggests Stall 1 is disadvantaged
* In races of 9 + runners the last stall 1 winner was July 2008
* All 55 that tried to win from stall 1 since then failed
* LITHAAM is drawn badly in stall 1
* Statisticaly he is fine but he is on a career high mark
* That factor and his draw could hurt his chance
* DECIDER comes from a selling race as did 3 winners
* No horse came from a 5f seller like him (0-8)
* No horse aged 5 or more came from sellers (0-12)
* No horse came from Sellers without form in Class 3 +
* DECIDER has not got that and hasnt won here before
* He also hasnt won off his current rating either
* DECIDER doesnt really interest me in this race
* FROMSONG is an 11 year old
* There was only 1 winner in 128 races that old
* There were 3 winners aged 9 or more
* That all had past form in Grade 1 races and he doesnt
* I can take or leave FROMSONG but his age is a worry
* You cant argue he is strong statistically either
* THE GEESTER has to go with a 215 day absence
* He only has 4 runs in 2009 and shouldnt be fit enough
* KYLE doesnt have a very impressive profile
* No similar horse had an absence of over a Month
* Not when 5 + and dropping in trip with No pattern form
* STEEL CITY BOY is exposed and hasnt ran here before
* I put his profile through 128 similar races
* I found a 1-43 record which didnt impress me
* None of his recent runs look good enough
* STEEL CITY BOY doesnt look the one to me

SHORTLIST

* TEN DOWN has been absent 46 days
* I have found winners like him defy that absence
* He is well handicapped as well so is respected
* BO MCGINTY is fine statistically
* He likes small field and a recent run
* Not sure he is as comfortable here as elsewhere
* There is no strong reason why he cant win
* FEMME DE FER is a 3yo filly
* Remarkably they won 20 of the 128 races
* I have found winners lightly raced liken her
* FEMME DE FER would be a positive

SELECTION - FEMME DE FER


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WOLVERHAMPTON 1.55

32Red.com Handicap (CLASS 6) (3yo+ 0-68) 7f32y

7/2 Just Timmy Marcus, 5/1 Golden Prospect, Striker Torres, 6/1 Obe Gold, 8/1 Another Try, 8/1 Borasco, 10/1 Obe Brave, 14/1 Whatyouwoodwishfor, 20/1 Vogarth, 25/1 Haasem, 25/1 Highland River, 33/1 Electric Warrior.

This is a 7f handicap for 0-66 rated horses. I do like the
profiles of the 3 year olds JUST TIMMY MARCUS and
STRIKER TORRES who were 2nd and 3rd in the same
race last time. I felt they had excellent chances and the
opposition do have problems. I dont see anything I like
about Electric Warrior -Highland River - Vogarth. There
has been 134 similar races at this time of year. None of
the winners were like WHATYOUWOODWISHFOR in
coming froma 3yo handicap over 6f. None came from
a 6f Claimer as BORASCO does. There are few winners
from Sellers and none were as old as OBE GOLD. You
can argue HAASEM wont be fit. ANOTHER TRY has
a chance but is up in trip and has little backclass and is
not looking well treated after 3 wins in 13 runs. I feel
OBE BRAVE has a chance and GOLDEN PROSPECT
has a good profile and this pair ae probably the main
dangers to the 3 year olds. I see the best option this

STRIKER TORRES - Win Bet 9/2

GOLDEN PROSPECT - Saver bet 5/1

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LINGFIELD 2.00

William Lennox 87th Birthday Handicap
(Div II) (CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-70) 5f

11/4 Thoughtsofstardom, 4/1 Edith´s Boy, 5/1 Buy On The Red
11/2 Littlemisssunshine, 6/1 Peopleton Brook, 10/1 Cape Royal 12/1 After The Show, 20/1 Especially Special, Raimond Ridge

* This is a 5f Handicap for 0-69 rated horses
* This is Division 2 of the 1.30pm Handicap
* There has been 128 similar races in December
* The Draw Suggests Stall 1 is disadvantaged
* In races of 9 + runners the last stall 1 winner was July 2008
* All 55 that tried to win from stall 1 since then failed
* CAPE ROYAL doesnt appeal from stall 1
* Not aged 9 without a recent run and no Sand wins
* He has 1 Third place from 13 runs on Sand and is out
* BUY ON THE RED has a poor drawn in stall 2
* BUY ON THE RED is from a seller as were 3 winners
* No horse came from a 5f seller like him (0-8)
* No horse aged 5 or more came from sellers (0-12)
* BUY ON THE RED doesnt stand out as solid to me
* LITTLEMISSSUNSHINE looks underraced to me
* I cant find an older filly like her
* Not with so few runs this year and a 3 week break
* I dont see her as solid statistically
* ESPECIALLY SPECIAL makes no appeal
* Not as a Filly coming from a Claimer
* No fillies of any age won doing that
* RAIMOND RIDGE comes from a 3yo handicap
* Horses doing that had a 0-39 record in 128 races
* RAIMOND RIDGE looks opposable because of that
* No exposed 3yo like him won without a recent run
* RAIMOND RIDGE looks weak statistically
* PEOPLETON BROOK doesnt appeal from a claimer
* 5 winners came from claimers but had recent runs
* Those without a run within 14 days were 0-38
* Aged 7 - exposed - down in trip and 22 days off isnt good
* PEOPLETON BROOK doesnt make the shortlist
* AFTER THE SHOW doesnt appeal
* No horse his age dropped down from a 6f race
* Not without a run within 7 days

SHORTLIST

* EDITH´S BOY is 3 and has just won an all aged handicap
* I looked at all 3yo's doing that with 13 + runs like him
* I found a 3-10 record and 5 more were placed
* 8 of the 10 that tried placed and 3 of them won
* EDITH´S BOY has a solid profile
* THOUGHTSOFSTARDOM is fine statistically
* He also won this race comfortably last year
* With a recent run he is a big player

SELECTION - THOUGHTSOFSTARDOM 3/1
SAVER - EDITH'S BOY 3/1

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LINGFIELD 3.05

Best Odds Guaranteed At totesport.com
Conditions Stakes (CLASS 3) (3yo+) 1m

13/8 General Eliott, 7/4 Ace Of Hearts, 9/2 Jaroslaw,
8/1 Drogba, 16/1 Lucky Dance, 66/1 Pride Of Nation.

This is a Conditions race over a Mile. There are only 22
similar races at this time of year but they probably wont
be any help in this race as there are some heavy absences
to overcome. It wont come as any surprise to you that I
am nervous about ACE OF HEARTS being 10 and absent
168 days. I know no horse aged 9 or more has won any
race in December absent 4 months or more in a race that
was higher than Class 4. Thats a worry for such an older
horse with such an absence. I suppose his task is made a
bit easier as DROGBA has a 555 day absence as well. I'd
not want to bet either horse. Both LUCKY DANCE and
PRIDE OF NATION look too badly weighted. I am not
in any rush to bet JAROSLAW with 1 run since November
2008. The only horse in this race that has the ability to
win and that has a fit profile is GENERAL ELIOTT. He
looks tricky and hard to read but I suspect a Mile has to
be his best distance and the small field will help and I'd
rather risk GENERAL ELLIOT than anything else.

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LINGFIELD 3.35

Bigger "Win Only" Odds At totesport.com
Handicap (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85) 1m4f

3/1 Mildoura, 4/1 Doubnov, 9/2 Brett Vale, 6/1 Hurakan,
8/1 Mister New York, 9/1 Lyra´s Daemon, 14/1 Evident Pride, 16/1 Follow The Flag, 16/1 Paktolos.

* This is a 12f Handicap for horses rated 0-85
* There has been 73 similar races at this time of year
* BRETT VALE is a 3yo coming from a 2m race
* No 3yo won a similar race doing that
* FOLLOW THE FLAG is exposed and up in trip
* Not many horses do that without a recent run
* I thought he was unimpressive statistically
* There is a fair chance he wont stay 12f anyway
* His sire has a 0-59 record with his runners at 12f +
* He has only had 1 winner at 11f and there is a doubt
* HURAKAN is a 3yo coming from 10f
* There were some winners like that but none like him
* Fillies aged 3 won 5 races
* None were as inexperienced as LYRA´S DAEMON
* None were as lightly raced as her
* None were beaten as far as her last time
* LYRA´S DAEMON doesnt make much appeal
* PAKTOLOS is exposed and up in trip
* There were 13 winners like that
* None had under 9 runs that season
* I dont think he did enough last time
* DOUBNOV is interesting off a mark of 80
* The downside is he won a seller last time
* None of the 73 winners came from a selling race
* He was rated a lot higher a few runs ago
* He could be very well treated
* He won a very poor seller though which worries me
* I think think that makes him vulnerable
* EVIDENT PRIDE has a reasonable profile
* I couldnt find an exact winner though
* He is shortlistable but not selection material
* MILDOURA is a 4yo filly and just 1 of those won
* Again shortlistable but not strong statistically
* MISTER NEW YORK has a good solid profile

SELECTION

MISTER NEW YORK 5/1

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