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One Selection

Southwell 1.50

CAPE OF STORMS Each Way 6/1


Nine races in todays message. Lingfield is a dissapointment
with small cards and I have only looked at a couple of races there. Done all 7 Southwell races. There are a few short priced favourites that look hard to oppose and if we are to have a big priced winner it will be in the 1st 3rd or 7th races on the card where the field sizes are bigger and the prices more attractive.

Had DON PIETRO proven himself at this track and at this 7f
distance he would have been a really confident bet around 9/1 in the 2.50pm race but he is not and he has to come with risk. I can not resist a small bet at 9/1 but I do that knowing that if 7f here doesnt suit I have done my money but his profile is one of the best in this message and I feel he is worth a bet. I feel the complications in the 7th race are best answered by a Dutching bet so I wont include that in the top of the message.

In the end I felt my best chance came early in the first race and CAPE OF STORMS around 6/1 each way is my choice on
the day and I've backed him and also DON PIETRO (2.50pm)
Its not a day for serious stakes but I feel this pair are worth a small bet and I have staked the safer of the pair.


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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G


Steady start to the week yesterday. I was not confident at any stage about my Wolverhampton previews and felt the meeting had the edge on me. In the end from six races we had 2 winners at 7/2 and 9/4 and thats more than I had expected or hoped for. My personal bet at Plumpton was 3rd having been odds on in running and looking the winner. Overall I think it held its own as a message and I felt it had done enough for respectability.


LINGFIELD and SOUTHWELL today. I was dissapointed
with Lingfield's card. There were more small fields than I
realised. In the end I only typed up a couple of races. I did plan to do others but I didnt have the angles for them and found no way into these races so I have put Lingfield down as harder than I thought with 2 previews only. Southwell is pretty standard and 7 previews there make it a 9 race mail.



SOUTHWELL 1.50

SOUTHWELL-RACECOURSE.CO.UK HANDICAP
(CLASS 6) (4yo+,0-55) 6f

4/1 Afton View, 4/1 Whozart, 11/2 Blakeshall Quest,
6/1 Avoca Dancer, 7/1 Soba Jones, 10/1 Cape Of Storms,
10/1 Orange Square, 14/1 So Sublime, 16/1 Bahamarama,
16/1 Divine White, 20/1 Tag Team.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-55 rated horses
* We have 155 similar races at this time of year
* DIVIVE WHITE is out as a filly with an absence
* BAHAMARAMA is out as a filly absent 232 days
* I dont fancy SO SUBLIME from a 5f 0-45 classified race
* He has no form at 6f either
* If he won it would be simply that the C+D sets him alight
* Has to be doubtful and he isnt for me
* SOBA JONES is older than any of the 155 winners
* I would only have considered him in different circumstances
* Had he a more recent run and had he ran closer last time
* With a 21 day break and 8 length loss last time he isnt for me
* I dont see SOBA JONES as ready to win yet
* WHOZART ran well after an absence last time
* That was his first run in 3 months though
* I would be worried that wasnt enough and he could bounce
* As he also has to come from 5f I am against him
* WHOZART has no back class anyway
* He has never been rated better than this grade
* I respect his chance but dont want to bet him
* BLAKESHALL QUEST is out as a filly from 5f
* Fillies that come from 5f races dont interest me
* They have a 0-25 record in all Southwell 6f handicaps
* They score badly at other tracks as well
* None did it when as old as BLAKESHALL QUEST
* ORANGE SQUARE has just 1 run since last August
* Thats not enough for me and he is passed over
* Accept he is well handicapped and could go well
* I just want a fitter profile
* ORANGE SQUARE could run into a place today
* For win purposes I prefer a fitter horse
* I think 4 horses have strong profiles in this race

AFTON VIEW - AVOCA DANCER
CAPE OF STORMS - TAG TEAM

I do like AVOCA DANCER's chance but the issue with her is just how well suited to Southwell is she. Shes run 3 times. Her first 2 runs were poor. Last time out she perhaps just did enough to say she should handle the surface but it is still an issue. I have been watching AFTON VIEW recently. Think his best chance may be from the front so his draw in stall 11 worries me as does his sires
record which shows no Southwell wins yet. CAPE OF STORMS
and TAG TEAM were 5th and 6th in the same race last time. I
didnt fancy either as they bumped into two better quality horses and they both ran well. TAG TEAM has a strong chance at the weights and may have needed the run last time but I also liked CAPE OF STORMS a lot from a poor draw last time and I felt he looked a horse that could win soon. Given the four that I am shortlisting I just felt this pair were safer.

SELECTION - CAPE OF STORMS each way


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LINGFIELD 2.10

CHELSEA COTTAGE SELLING STAKES (CLASS 6) (3yo+) 5f

Evs Woodcote, 7/2 Desert Opal, 5/1 Scarlet Oak,
6/1 Brown Lentic, 8/1 Elusive Ronnie.

* This is a 5f selling race
* We have only had 40 similar races at this time of year
* Only one horse aged 3 won in a 1-21 record
* None came from 3yo handicaps
* I would much rather avoid horses aged 3
* BROWN LENTIC fails that and has 1 run since November
* ELUSIVE RONNIE also fails that and is out aged 3
* SCARLET OAK is the only filly in the race
* She also comes from a 6f race and fillies doing that were 1-39
* 6 Fillies won in the 40 selling races
* They all came from claimers and handicaps
* Those from sellers were 0-16
* These female stats put me off SCARLET OAK
* This leaves WOODCOTE and DESERT OPAL
* Both are fine statistically
* At the weights I prefer WOODCOTE
* He also has much more backclass
* There are issues with the small field and his poor strike rate
* Even allowing for that I dont see a sensible alternative
* WOODCOTE is the selection

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SOUTHWELL 2.30

HAVE YOUR WEDDING AT SOUTHWELL RACECOURSE
MAIDEN STAKES (CLASS 5) (3yo+) 1m

13/8 Zarilan, 9/4 High Cross, 4/1 Daisys Fantasy,
5/1 Miss Christophene, 20/1 Croy, 25/1 Early Girl

* This is an 8f maiden for all aged horses
* We have 110 similar races at this time of year
* CROY and EARLY GIRL are rejected
* I dont think either achieved enough last time out
* DAISYS FANTASY is an unraced 4 year old filly
* Unraced fillies are 4-73
* Unraced 4 year olds are 3-76
* However unraced 4yo fillies are 0-45
* This leads me to oppose DAISYS FANTASY
* MISS CHRISTOPHENE is fine statistically
* I dont see her without some worries
* I didnt like her 800gns purchase price
* She looks tempremental last time as well
* She was led riderless to the start and played up in the stalls
* She may be quirky and looks risky
* I think ZARILAN and HIGH CROSS look best
* ZARILAN looks impossible to read with Irish form
* No idea how to rate him and I am neutral about him
* HIGH CROSS at least has a positive profile
* Fillies with 1 run like her from 3yo maidens over 8f were fine
* They had a 2-9 record and I dont see a problem with her
* HIGH CROSS has the best profile from an unratable Zarilan
* I would have to argue that HIGH CROSS should beat her
* Getting 24lbs is a lot of weight
* If HIGH CROSS runs to a rating of 60 it may be enough
* ZARILAN may have to run to 80 + and I just cant see that
* Perhaps MISS CHRISTOPHENE is a bigger danger
* I saw enough ability last time to go with HIGH CROSS

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SOUTHWELL 2.50

SOUTHWELL GOLF CLUB SELLING STAKES (CLASS 6) (4yo+) 7f

4/1 Cap St Jean, 5/1 Kingsmaite, 11/2 Obe Royal, 13/2 Ballycroy Boy, 8/1 Don Pietro, 8/1 Hamaasy, 10/1 Don Picolo, 10/1 Hurricane Coast, 12/1 Ice Planet, 16/1 Jord, 20/1 Last Of The Line, 25/1 Mount Usher, 50/1 Follow Your Spirit, 66/1 Shadow Jumper.

* This is a 7f selling race
* We have had 83 sellers at 7f at this time of year
* Horses absent 7 + weeks had a poor 3-162 record
* All 50 that were exposed lost and these horses are out
* JORD is out as a mare absent 64 days
* LAST OF THE LINE is out with 111 days absence
* FOLLOW YOUR SPIRIT is out absent 69 days
* DON PICOLO is out absent 70 days and 1 run since March
* MOUNT USHER is out aged 7 absent 44 days
* SHADOW JUMPER looks outclassed
* Horses that come from 6f races underperformed
* They are much more likely to win with a recent run
* The record of these horses suggest they are best with back class
* Those that had never run above Class 4 before were 1-71
* OBE ROYAL Technically fails that
* OBE ROYAL does have a recent race and a fair draw
* That does pull him back into consideration
* Will he lose position from stall one though ?
* He is 0-27 in fields of 10 or more and is that relevant ?
* Is he a small field horse
* Respected - but too many doubts for me about him
* Horses aged 4 that come from 6f struggle (2-75)
* BALLYCROY BOY fails that and he isnt for me
* Not keen that he has just 1 run since November
* BALLYCROY BOY is just about the best horse at the weights
* Drawn Well I wouldnt be laying him but he isnt for me
* I would want a fitter profile
* ICE PLANET is statistically fine despite coming from 6f
* I dont think he is one to bet at 7f
* KINGSMAITE is one of the more likely 6f winners as well
* He wouldnt be my choice with an inexperienced pilot
* The lads only had a couple of races before which concerns me
* HURRICANE COAST is out from stall 14 and a 7lbs claimer
* It was 2007 since the last winner from Stall 14 won here
* He also comes from a poor last time out run

SHORTLIST

DON PIETRO - HAMAASY -CAP ST JEAN


* HAMAASY is an 8 year old absent 3 weeks
* These types have won but all 21 lost at Southwell
* I would want a more recent run for him
* I think there are more likely winners
* CAP ST JEAN has a solid profile
* There is no reason why he cant win this
* I do have 3 small issues with him
* I would have prefered a more recent run
* Would have also like a jockey that had ridden a winner before
* CAP ST JEAN also has a wide draw in stall 10
* Slightly lower would have been preferable

* DON PIETRO has a brilliant profile
* A Recent 1-2-3-4 run in an 8f seller or claimer is ideal
* Exposed horses that do that had a brilliant 10-16 record
* DON PIETRO does have two serious issues
* He only has 1 Southwell run and that was a flop
* He had a long absence and was awful statistically in that race
* He is still unproven on this surface however
* He has a relative that has won at Southwell and his sire does ok
* His other problem is whether 7f is too sharp
* All his relevant form is over 8f or more
* He does shape like a horse that should suit 7f
* If DON PIETRO appreciates trip and surface he will win
* There is a genuine doubt though and we dont know
* Visually watching him I am comfortable with the 7f

SELECTION - DON PIETRO

There are risks but Given his profile they are risks I am prepared to take so a win bet at double figures on DON PIETRO.


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LINGFIELD 3.10

SOUTH PARK CLAIMING STAKES (CLASS 6) (4yo+) 1m2f

11/10 Blacktoft, 6/4 Zero Cool, 9/2 North Parade, 25/1 Bet Noir, 66/1 Fortune Point.

There isnt much I can say about this 10f claimer. We have had 39 similar races at this time of year. FORTUNE POINT looks outclassed. I couldnt have BET NOIR either with just 1 run since October and a heavy defeat. NORTH PARADE has ran just once since October as well and although over hurdles it was a poor run and I would demand a fitter profile. This should really be between BLACKTOFT and ZERO COOL. The weights suggest that the advantage is with ZERO COOL yet he has a 38 day absence and BLACKTOFT has a 3 day absence. You would expect me to go with BLACKTOFT because of that but I have looked at every horse that won with a months absence and they were all similar to ZERO COOL and I think he has a very strong profile. I would not want to split this pair and give ZERO COOL every chance. Force me for a selection I will go with ZERO COOL

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SOUTHWELL 3.20

COME JUMPING NEXT TUESDAY
HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (4yo+,0-85) 1m

2/1 Torch Of Freedom, 5/2 Mcconnell, 5/1 Veiled Applause,
10/1 Silver Hotspur, 12/1 Exit Smiling, 14/1 Flying Squad,
16/1 Aviso, 16/1 Naomh Geileis, 20/1 Orpen Wide, 25/1 Kabeer.

This is an 8f handicap for 0-85 rated horses. The dilemma is whether to take on TORCH OF FREEDOM as a horse that
has had just 1 run since last June. The problem with taking a strong view against him is that he is very lightly raced and will find it far easier to overcome that than a more exposed horse. I certainly dont want FLYING SQUAD whose likely to be unfit. So to is EXIT SMILING and I cant find a horse as old as him defy as long an absence as he has. I would also oppose VEILED APPLAUSE absent 168 days with no form at Southwell before. AVISO looks unfit and ORPEN WIDE and KABEER outclassed. There is an argument to give the down in grade filly NAOMH GEILEIS a chance. She looks interesting and clearly has ability. She looks to me as if its a couple of races too soon for her but she has a small chance and there has been some money for her - she was in fact the first horse bet in the race last night. I dont see her as the sort I would want to make as a selection but I dont ignore her chance completely. The obvious ones to be with and the strongest statistical runners have to be are MCCONNELL and SILVER HOTSPUR and I fancy them both. I can not see TOUCH OF FREEDOM as a big negative as he is unexposed but there are just two that I can bet in MCCONNELL and SILVER HOTSPUR


SELECTION - SILVER HOTSPUR
SAVER - MCCONNELL

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SOUTHWELL 3.50

BOOK YOUR TICKETS AT SOUTHWELLRACECOURSE
HANDICAP (CLASS 3) (4yo+,0-95) 6f

5/2 Ingleby Arch, 7/2 Xpres Maite, 4/1 Haajes,
4/1 Wotashirtfull, 9/2 Borasco, 20/1 Wessex

This 6f handicap didnt interest me at all with just 6 runners. WESSEX wont be fit enough and I would worry BORASCO is a filly absent 159 days. That said I have found two fillies that won races with long breaks and like BORASCO they were unexposed and she is not out of this. Her trainer is unreadable. David Barons runs here and INGLEBY ARCH as well and you wouldnt be certain he didnt want to win this with BORASCO. Last time out INGLEBY ARCH won beating XPRES MAITE who is now better weighted. Its a
tight call but I would expect INGLEBY ARCH to beat him
again as he is entitled to improve more in my view. I can
not rule out WOTASHIRTFULL or HAAJES but this pair
come from 5f and I would rather not have that. The most
likely winner is INGLEBY ARCH but his stable are tricky
and it wouldnt surprise me if BORASCO figured either. In
the end I had to go with INGLEBY ARCH

Selection - INGLEBY ARCH

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SOUTHWELL 4.20

ARENA LEISURE PLC HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo,0-60) 7f

1/2 Esprit De Midas, 5/1 Paint Splash, 8/1 Dancing Wave,
10/1 Why Nee Amy, 20/1 Cwmni, 20/1 Floods Of Tears.

This is a 3yo handicap and a weak area for me statistically and given that ESPRIT DE MIDAS is long odds on its not a race I can do much with. I wouldnt oppose ESPRIT DE MIDAS who has a double penalty for winning his last 2 races suggesting more to come. All his opponents are fillies. If you look at these races and research horses with penalties for winning their last two races
they score very well. With a recent run and no step up in trip there has been 7 horses that tried to win similar races with that profile. The 7 horses were W W 2 W 3 W 4 and thats good enough for me. Maybe DANCING WAVE will be the one for the forecast as she was 2nd behind ESPRIT DE MIDAS last time out and although beaten by 5 lengths she could cut into that margin today. I cant avoid ESPRIT DE MIDAS as the selection but suggest a forecast on ESPRIT DE MIDAS to beat DANCING WAVE.


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SOUTHWELL 4.50

SOUTHWELL FOR RACECOURSE CONFERENCES
HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (4yo+,0-65) 1m4f

5/2 Ghufa, 4/1 Middle Of Nowhere, 7/1 Slew Charm,
15/2 Dazzling Begum, 9/1 Ibrox, 10/1 Trans Sonic,
12/1 Alberts Story, 12/1 Tyrana, 16/1 Jackie Kiely,
25/1 Corrib, 50/1 Alseraaj, 50/1 Etoile D'Or.

* This is a 12f handicap for 0-65 rated horses
* There has been 111 similar races at this time of year
* ETOILE D'OR makes no appeal as a mare from hurdles
* ALSERAAJ doesnt look fit enough to win
* Female horses absent 7 weeks or more are 0-70
* CORRIB fails that and is rejected
* TYRANA also fails that and has 1 run only since March 08
* JACKIE KIELY is an 8 year old absent 98 days
* No horse that aged defied a months absence never mind 98 days
* IBROX and TRANS SONIC are drawn 1 and 2
* Even over 12f that may be a poor draw
* Consider the draw statistics at this distance
* Since 2007 there has been 33 handicaps here at 12f
* Thats 33 handicaps with 9 or more runners in them
* Horses drawn 1-2-3-4 won just 2 of the 33 races
* They had an overall 2-126 record and thats awful
* IBROX is rejected from stall 1
* He also drops from 14f where beaten 19 lengths last time
* Looked at horses beaten 10 + lengths over 14f last time
* Those with under 13 runs were 0-27
* IBROX fails that and with a bad draw he is out
* TRANS SONIC has a poor draw in stall 2
* He has an otherwise reasonable profile
* He is risky because of his draw
* I still see him as a horse with a chance

POSSIBLES

* SLEW CHARM is a 7yo with a months absence
* Some winners aged 7 managed that but he has 1 run since September
* He did run well (2nd) last time in a weaker race
* Wouldnt rule him out but I would want a fitter profile
* DAZZLING BEGUM is a 4yo filly
* In 111 races 4yo fillies were 5-139
* However all 5 horses that won had ran in better class before
* 4yo fillies that ran within the past 2 weeks were 0-56
* 4yo fillies that came from 12f or more were 0-73
* Thats 3 pretty worrying trends for DAZZLING BEGUM
* Because of those angles I wont shortlist him


MIDDLE OF NOWHERE - GHUFA
TRANS SONIC - ALBERTS STORY

* TRANS SONIC has the draw against him
* He has an otherwise reasonable profile
* He is shortlisted as others have big problems
* ALBERTS STORY is fine statistically
* He doesnt have any back class and isnt obvious
* His chance improves by others having problems themselves
* GHUFA changed hands for £9000 recently and won
* Its worrying he has 1 run since September
* He did win that though and is unexposed
* There is no problem with coming from a 9f race
* His profile would be a worry if he was exposed
* As he has just 8 runs its "Forgivable"
* Perhaps given his price he is more of a "saver" than selection
* MIDDLE OF NOWHERE has 4 runs and comes from 10f
* Thats actually a very smart profile
* 4 year olds from 10f with under 5 runs had a 4-20 record
* When running within a month they are 3-8
* When starting 16/1 or shorter that became a 3-4 record
* MIDDLE OF NOWHERE has a strong profile
* His Flaw is that he has no Southwell form
* His sire has no wins at this track as well
* MIDDLE OF NOWHERE is drifting badly as well
* That doesnt tempt me to risk him on a new surface

SELECTION

A Very messy and complicated race. I have Ghufa as no better than a saver. I would liked to have gone with the horse that had the best profile Middle of Nowhere but a new surface is a big problem. Dazzling Begum and Slew Charm are possibles but are unsafe in my view. I only have the Draw against the topweight Trans Sonic. He is statistically solid aside from that and has seen market support so should I give him the benefit of the doubt and after all a horse called Three Strings won here in November from the same stall in a bigger field. I would also argue that whilst not looking as if he stands out Alberts Story has a solid profile around 14/1 and has to figure. Complicated but I have staked the race like this.

SELECTION (s)

Going with 3 bets in the race with 1/3 of your stake on each of the three suggestions below.

Win Bet on MIDDLE OF NOWHERE around 9/1
Place Bet on TRANS SONIC around 5/2
Win Bet on ALBERTS STORY around 14/1

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