No Account Bet

1 Selection

Southwell 4.15

GRACIE´S GIFT

Each Way Bet around 4/1


5/1 Blue Sq-888sport
4/1 Ladbrokes -Skybet-PaddyP -Tote -Sportingbet


Today's message has turned into a Southwell and
Musselburgh dominated E mail. Most of the time I
consider myself a very good judge of when one of
my previews is over reaching and too speculative
and when the Preview is right and accurate. I like
to think I usually get that right. Today I am not so
sure I will get that right. Musselburgh is not one
of my favourite tracks. Most of my previews there
comfortably get to only 2-3-4 possible winners of
a race but then hit a brick wall and do not seem to
be able to go that bit further and find really strong
bets there. With Southwell it is the case of either
reading the meeting correctly or not and I am not
sure how I will do today. Looks a day that I'd not
really know what to expect from the mail.

There could be an Account Bet tomorrow. Looks
a mouth watering day and much more my kind of
meetings than today. I expect a strong bet and it
will be in a Handicap at a decent price. Today I'm
hoping to raise stakes for that bet with an each
way bet on GRACIE'S GIFT who was second last
night at Yarmouth. I had several options today. I
didnt see any as account bet strength but a few
had the chance of becoming selections. I liked
Cheveton at Musselburgh but my best negative
is a non runner and the price has gone. I'm also
tempted with Starcross Maid in the 2.30pm at
Southwell but thats a guess really. In the end I
came down on GRACIE'S GIFT but I am more
interested in tomorrow and the next three days
where we should have some strong business.

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G




Four races today at Musselburgh. Thats the only Turf
meeting today. The choice after that was either doing
the Sand and revisit Lingfield and Southwell again or
scrap that idea and look at the evening Jumps cards.
In the end I didnt see much I could say tonight so I'm
opening up the message with an All Weather review
but the supporting cards to Musselburgh today are
poor and dont offer much.


A L L W E A T H E R

LINGFIELD can be the cruelest of places and my firm
resolution not to touch anything there with a barge
pole unless I think its a banker still stands. Going to
skip the card today as I dont see much at all there.


SOUTHWELL 2.30

BET AFTER THE OFF AT LADBROKES.COM
APPRENTICE HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (4yo+,0-55) 1m3f

7/2 Sir Haydn, 4/1 Maddy, 5/1 Pretty Officer, 8/1 Corrib,
8/1 Crazy Bold, 8/1 Jiminor Mack, 8/1 Starcross Maid,
10/1 Cecina Marina, 20/1 Doonigan.

SELECTION - STARCROSS MAID 11/1

Half of me thinks there is a decent winner here begging
to be backed and the other half thinks you cant bet any
horse in the race and its ridiculous to get involved. I've
looked at all low grade handicaps at this time of year
around this trip. So many Fillies here with absences
and horses that shouldnt be fit enough. The one horse
that could have blown these away was SIR HAYDN but
you dont know if he will love or hate the surface. The
35 races he has run on sand were all elsewhere aside
from one inconclusive run and we dont know if he likes
Fibresand or not. This such a poor 0-49 handicap that
it would take nothing to win it so care is needed. I take
the view CORRIB shouldnt be fit as an older exposed
mare thats had just 1 run this year and an 80 day break.
I didnt want JIMINOR MACK with a 0-29 career record
and is another exposed female with an absence. There
are 131 similar races and no filly came from a 3 year
old handicap as PRETTY OFFICER has to do and she's
a long absence to overcome and isnt proven here. You
can say the same for CECINA MARINA another female
with a long absence and no Sand form. I can not see a
case for DOONIGAN. I dont see CRAZY BOLD as a bet
having been running poorly over hurdles and its too
much of a leap of faith to risk him on any form he has
shown. MADDY has at least had a recent run and can
be said to be fit but there wasnt a winner like her in
the 131 similar races. No 4yo filly that was exposed
won any of the races and no filly came from a seller
and she doesnt set a high standard. I expect she is
likely to run her race and be thereabouts but it will
not take much to beat her. SIR HAYDN will win if he
likes the surface but thats far from certain. I would
give STARCROSS MAID a good chance. I have to turn
a blind eye to a 40 day break but she is proven here
unlike many and her last race would be good enough.
She was 3rd in a 0-60 handicap over this course and
distance and that was with just 1 run in the previous
1 weeks and she is so well handicapped these days.
She loves a small field and takes on rivals with many
problems to overcome. It is wide open but nothing is
without problems and STARCROSS MAID looks far
too big at a double figure price to win this race.



SOUTHWELL 3.05

I would have to be with LA CAPRIOSA if she runs as
she ran second yesterday. Whilst MADISON BELLE
has 5lbs in hannd of her on ratings the fact she is
absent 50 days and LA CAPRIOSA ran yesterday is
a huge advantage that I dont think MAIDISON BELLE
will cope with. There is evey chance that having run
yesterday LA CAPRIOSA doesnt run. If she does she
is the confident selection. If she doesnt I would be
still looking to find a horse to beat MADISON BELLE
as a filly absent over 7 weeks and as CAPO REGIME
didnt show enough on his seasonal debut I didnt
see him as an option. You could make a case for
PEPIN but he was flattered last time and is taking
a step up in trip. DENTON DIVA would be my choice
if LA CAPRIOSA doesnt run. If she does she'd be it.


SOUTHWELL 3.40


MASKED DANCE sets the standard in this maiden
race for 2 year olds. He is 8/11 in the Racing Post
yet 11/10 on Betfair. His market weakness will be
down to the draw in stall 11. It is a horrible draw
but I always look at Draw Stats through handicaps
only as its a much more accurate guide and many
maiden races are far easier to win from the high
draws. Take the risk with the draw and you are
rewarded with a bigger price than he should be.
If I had to bet one her it would be MASKED DANCE
and I would ignore the draw and take better odds.


I didnt want to oppose PADDY REILLY in the 4.15
handicap but as he was a short price I'm happy
to leave him alone


SOUTHWELL 4.15

4/1 Gracie's Gift, 4/1 Bold Diva, 4/1 Haroldini, 8/1 Magical Song, 10/1 Legal Lover, 12/1 Avontuur, Copper
King, 14/1 Captain Royale, 14/1 Out Of India, 20/1 Goodbye Cash, 20/1 Young Gladiator, 25/1 Louisiade, 33/1 Osteopathic Care.

Plenty of these should not be good enough and
may lack fitness. There has been 79 of these 7f
handicaps at this time of year. I would oppose
several of these. Horses that I dont see as fit in
this include OSTEOPATHIC CARE - LEGAL LOVER
AVONTUUR - GOODBYE CASH - CAPTAIN ROYALE
and YOUNG GLADIATOR. OUT OF INDIA is out as a
mare up in trip. COPPER KING is out with the worst
draw and a months break. MAGICAL SONG hasn't
been running well enough for me and I feel the
same about LOUISIADE. I could only see 4 horses
I could consider betting. BOLD DIVA wouldnt be
my first choice. I respect HAROLDINI a lot but last
night GRACIE'S GIFT ran a solid 2nd at Yarmouth
and that fitness edge is one of several reasons
why I'd go with her.

SELECTION - GRACIE'S GIFT Each Way

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M U S S E L B U R G H

I dont see any angles I like in the first race. The meeting really starts for me with the Maiden at 2.55pm. It looks a match between SAUCY GIRL and DISPOL KEASHA who
both have identical profiles. I dont see any others being
backable. ISLAND EXPRESS lost by too far two days ago
and whilst unraced horses can always come and beat
you I think this pair are best. I just prefer SAUCY GIRL.
She ran into a hot favourite last time but ran very well
and she was introduced into a race Tim Easterby sends
a smart filly to. He had won that race 5 times before
and I sense SAUCY GIRL is above average and she'd be
my choice in the race.


MUSSELBURGH 3.30

CORE (OIL AND GAS) LIMITED-PHILIZMA
HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (4yo+,0-80) 1m1f

2/1 Sirvino, 4/1 Royal Amnesty, 9/2 Celtic Change, 9/2 Wind Shuffle, 10/1 Golden Penny, 10/1 Wind Star, 16/1 Bourse, 16/1 Casino Night, 33/1 Cigalas.

* This is a 9f handicap for 0-80 rated horses
* Since 1993 we have had 167 similar races in April -May
* CELTIC CHANGE and WIND SHUFFLE come from the same race
* They were 2nd and 3rd on their seasonal debuts last time
* I looked at horses that had 1 run this season
* Those with 13 + runs that came from 8f handicaps were poor
* They had a 2-69 record in the 167 races
* Without a run in a week they were 0-60
* This suggests both these could be fitter
* Semi exposed horses may need more runs this year
* This factor and a 4 week break worries me for them
* CELTIC CHANGE and WIND SHUFFLE are overlooked
* WIND STAR is an exposed seasonal debutant
* These types have a 7-160 record
* Only 4 of these were absent 7 months or more
* None had the weight he does
* None came from Claimers as he does
* I couldnt rule him out but it is a concern
* He has not won from his current mark before
* CIGALAS hasnt done enough this season
* CASINO NIGHT is a filly out of form and badly handicapped
* GOLDEN PENNY was beaten too far on his first run this year
* Horses like him aged 4 with 1 run this year struggled
* Those like him from 8f or shorter were 0-71
* 4 year olds that run once this year in handicaps were 9-178
* Those with under 7 runs were 0-45
* SIRVINO Fails that albeit only just
* ROYAL AMNESTY has to be respected
* His career high mark worries me
* Especially coming with a 42 day absence
* BOURSE is respected with both wins at this track
* BOURSE looks shortlistable
* He is out of the handicap but has won here doing the same

SHORTLIST

BOURSE - SIRVINO

SELECTION

BOURSE 12/1




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MUSSELBURGH 4.05

POMMERY CHAMPAGNE BAR AT MUSSELBURGH
CONDITIONS STAKES (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 5f

3/1 Hamish McGonagall, 7/2 Spin Cycle, 4/1 Cheveton,
4/1 Fol Hollow, 10/1 River Falcon, 20/1 Pawan, 33/1
City Dancer, 100/1 Seafield Towers.

This is a 5f Conditions race for all aged horses. There
are some classy sprinters here and I think the race is
about fitness. Musselburgh has only had 2 renewals
of this race but there are 42 similar races elsewhere.
RIVER FALCON and SEAFIELD TOWERS look far too
old to win with 1 run this season. I dont have a major
issue with 3 year olds SPIN CYCLE and CITY DANDER
but they are seasonal debutants and we know that
18 of these tried to win and just one managed it. It's
impossible to make them negatives but I would want
a horse ideally older and with a recent run. Only one
4 year old won first time as well which puts me off
HAMISH MCGONAGALL as well. PAWAN has to have
a chance but I'd want a more recent run. I think the
2 that stand out are FOL HOLLOW and CHEVETON.
Its very hard to judge FOL HOLLOW as he ran over
in Ireland two weeks ago. I do like CHEVETON's
chance in this and interesting he comes from the
same Newbury Handicap that the 2007 winner did
before taking this race. CHEVETON looks good here

SELECTION - CHEVETON


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MUSSELBURGH 4.40

BOOGIE IN THE MORNING HANDICAP (CLASS 5)
(4yo+,0-70) 1m6f

3/1 Bollin Greta, 5/1 Sonny Sam, 5/1 That'll Do Nicely,
7/1 Los Nadis, 7/1 Miss Keck, 10/1 Jane Of Arc, 10/1
Merrion Tiger, 10/1 Zefooha, 14/1 Hugs Destiny, 33/1
Grail Knight.

* This is a 14f handicap for 0-69 rated horses
* Musselburgh has 14 similar races at this time of year
* There has been 136 similar races elsewhere since 1995
* Fillies that had under 13 career starts interest me
* 10 Fillies won having had under 13 runs
* However 9 of these were seasonal debutants
* Those that had run this year had a poor 1-71 record
* ZEFOOHA - MISS KECK - BOLLIN GRETA fail that
* BOLLIN GRETA is also a 4yo filly coming from a 12f race
* Fillies aged 4 that did that had a 0-81 record in these races
* I am opposing all 3 of these fillies
* JANE OF ARC has to go as well
* No filly like her came from a seller
* She also comes from 9f and no filly won from 11f or less
* Horses from maidens struggled
* When maidens under 12f they were 0-33
* GRAIL KNIGHT fails that with 3 runs from a 10f maiden
* HUGS DESTINY should need the run aged 8
* He took 4 runs last year before showing any form
* MERRION TIGER is quite hard to read
* I dont like his 42 day absence much
* I would be sceptical about him but neutral

SHORTLIST


* THAT´LL DO NICELY is reasonably fine statistically
* He has to show that he stays this far
* He comes from 12f and I would rather not have that
* SONNY SAM seems to have a reasonable profile
* I think he is shortlistable
* LOS NADIS continues to look well handicapped
* He is 62lbs lower than his hurdle ratings
* He is hard to judge coming from hurdles
* His previous race over C+D is good enough to win this

SELECTION - LOS NADIS


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MUSSELBURGH 5.15

ISS FACILITIES SERVICES HANDICAP
(CLASS 3) (4yo+,0-90) 7f30y

11/2 Captain Jacksparra, 7/1 Flores Sea, 7/1 Hinton Admiral, 7/1 Jonny Lesters Hair, 7/1 Opus Maximus, 8/1 Mujaadel, 10/1 Esoterica, 10/1 Jewelled Dagger, 10/1 Sir Xaar, 10/1 Strabinios King, 14/1 Dabbers Ridge, 20/1 Commando Scott.

* This is a 0-90 Handicap over 7 furlongs
* Musselburgh has 9 similar races at this time of year
* There has been 169 other races at this time of year
* Horses absent 7 months or more struggled in these races
* None were aged older than 6
* COMMANDO SCOTT fails that aged 8
* MUJAADEL doesnt interest me as a 4yo debutant
* He comes from a 10f race to a 7f race as well
* JEWELLED DAGGER doesnt appeal to me
* He has a long absence and isnt well treated
* He is much higher than his best previous win
* All his wins come over further as well
* I dont see him winning this after a long break
* JONNY LESTERS HAIR may lack class from bottomweight
* He has never won from this rating before
* He has never ran in this class before either
* Coming up two grades from class 5 he is rejected
* STRABINIOS KING is on a Career high mark
* I dont like his 83 day absence
* I dont fancy CAPTAIN JACKSPARRA
* Not being beaten so badly just 10 days ago
* DABBERS RIDGE is well handicapped at the moment
* He will win when he returns to form
* I didnt like his absence much
* Recently downgraded he looks opposable

SHORTLIST

* FLORES SEA has a reasonably good chance
* He is on a tough handicap mark though
* He is also in the hardest race he has faced before
* His best chance comes if some dissapoint
* I dont have a big problem with SIR XAAR
* I would prefer more runs this year though
* I would also worry about his draw in stall 1
* ESOTERICA was beaten 6 lengths in this last year
* He is 7lbs higher this year but has had a run
* He was without a run last year in this race
* I would give him a chance of taking this
* He has a career high mark though
* All his wins have come June onwards
* HINTON ADMIRAL was rated 105 a year ago
* He lost all 15 runs last season
* That has dropped his rating from 105 to 82
* HINTON ADMIRAL is tricky and hard to win with
* He does look well handicapped though so watch the market
* Lack of a run is his major problem
* OPUS MAXIMUS has a strong chance
* I am fine with his profile and like the drop in trip
* He has also been dropped 3lbs by the handicapper

Selection - OPUS MAXIMUS EACH WAY

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