No Bet Today

Much of today is just worthless as Newbury and
Newmarket offer cards full of maidens, nurseries
and Juvenile races so there is nothing much I can
say statistically. Just one of those late season days
where they try and cater for all the 2 year olds and
because of that I have had to keep it short. I have
done one preview in the staying race at Ayr but not
much else and borrowed time from today to sort out
Saturdays cards. There is one Mention today.

The 5.45 at Ayr is a 17f race and much will depend on
the two market leaders who are well handicapped on
their National Hunt Form. Both have long absences to
overcome though and it's far from certain they will take
advantage of lenient handicap marks. I would suggest
two bets in this race

* Win bet on DANZATRICE 10/1

* Saver on LET'S ROLL 12/1

Believe it or not these two horses are brother and
sister so hopefully they will both be suited to a race
like this. I prefer DANZATRICE. She is worth a bet at
10's as is the Saver. The cards today dont offer much
else as they are dominated by 2 year olds and thats
why the markets are dead today.

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T O D A Y S R A C I N G


Took a chance yesterday on Grey Command
who came 5th. There was a late gamble on the
horse but I dont think we had anything to do
with that. He looks a bit Tripless to me. I felt
he would make the running as he had done last
time but he was not ridden that way and in the
end he never looked like winning the race.


This Particular days racing is dominated by the
juveniles. There are so many Maiden races and
these are not races I can sort out. It's a day that
I cant say much at all in. Going to have a Short
Message today. Ignoring the Maiden races and
the Nurseries and the huge field handicaps and
that doesnt leave me with much at all. Decided
to look at the Staying Handicap at Ayr and I've
made that the only preview today.


AYR 5.45

M & M FABRICATIONS HANDICAP
(THE EGLINTON & WINTON CHALLENGE CUP)
(CLASS 4)(4yo+ 0-80) 2m1f105y

11/2 No Rules, 6/1 According To Pete, 6/1 Woody Waller,
7/1 Pagan Starprincess, 8/1 Summer Soul, 10/1 Danzatrice,
10/1 Lets Roll, 12/1 Baaher, 14/1 Sphinx, 16/1 Simonside,
25/1 Forrest Flyer, 25/1 Prince Rhyddarch, 33/1 Birkside,
33/1 Ecole D'Art, Merrion Tiger, 33/1 Red Wine.

* This is a handicap over an extended 17f for 0-76 horses
* Ayr has 15 renewals of this race
* August-October has seen 341 similar races (16f-18f)
* SPHINX won this last year but was a different horse then
* He had a better preparation and was in form
* This year he is aged 11 and has ran only 1 since March
* I would expect him to need this race
* The ground has also gone against him
* WOODY WALLER doesnt appeal at all
* He comes from a 12f race which is a big problem
* He is a 4 year old with a 132 day absence
* I think he has too much to prove
* ACCORDING TO PETE is 8 and absent 237 days
* No horse that age won after an absence of 4 + months
* He is clearly well handicapped on his National Hunt form
* It's a big ask though when that old and without a recent run
* His Draw in stall 17 could yet be a problem
* ECOLE D´ART is impossible to rate from Ireland
* Plenty to worry about from his profile
* I wasnt keen he was aged 8 and had an absence
* I think he may be best on a right handed track
* He just looks an unlikely winner withot much recent racing
* RED WINE looks a doubtful stayer
* He doesnt appeal anyway aged 10 and well beaten last time
* Hard to see him bouncing back over this trip
* MERRION TIGER doesnt appeal aged 4 and absent 50 days
* He has to be a very doubtful stayer as well
* PAGAN STARPRINCESS looks well handicapped
* She isnt for me though with a long absence
* In 341 races no female won with that absence
* Without a run in 118 days she is opposed
* PRINCE RHYDDARCH is aged 4 just beaten 15 lengths
* I looked at horses aged 4 beaten 10 + lengths
* When coming from 2m or shorter they struggled
* With under 5 runs that year they were 1-180
* With no backclass and a claiming rider I dont like him
* BIRKSIDE is a doubtful stayer for me
* He comes here well beaten over 14f last time
* Not the best preparation for a doubtful stayer
* SUMMER SOUL has to be respected
* He is pretty tempremental though and risky
* I dont like the fact he comes from 14f aged 7
* No horse like that won any of the Ayr races
* He wouldnt be my first choice
* BAAHER looks unsafe
* He is American Bred and has a 0-13 record so far
* Only 8 runs were on the flat but there is a ground issue
* His sire hasnt had a winner at 12f yet never mind 17f
* His last run doesnt look good enough to win
* There are far too many doubts about him

POSSIBLES


* NO RULES is a 4yo absent over 7 weeks
* 12 of the 341 winners were 4yo's with that absence
* Most of these had much more backclass than he does
* I looked at those with 13 + runs like him
* The few that won had all ran in better class
* NO RULES also has a career high mark as well
* His 2 wins came in 0-63 and 0-65 races
* This is a 0-76 off a higher mark and a better class
* His draw would also be a potential problem
* He may also find the ground drying out too much
* I dont see enough I like about him
* LETS ROLL doesnt look out of this
* He doesnt have much form at 2m + though
* He stays 2 miles and should stay more
* His sister runs in this race (Danzatrice)
* I prefer her but feel his chance is fine
* FOREST FLYER doesnt really appeal
* Exposed and up in distance
* I wouldnt say he was certain to stay either
* Stable are not flying and no more than a possible
* SIMONSIDE was 3rd last time out
* DANZATRICE was just behind her in 4th that
* Both have acceptable chances
* DANZATRICE has every chance of winning
* He was in last place for most of the race
* Given a lot to do he finished well but was impeded
* He was 4th in this race in 2006 showing suitability
* As a Mare in form with a good recent run he appeals

SELECTION

DANZATRICE

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O T H E R T H O U G H T S


N E W M A R K E T

Miserable betting card at Newmarket full of juvenile
races and nothing much I can say at all. I can mention
the good record in the 2.30pm Fillies maiden by Cecil
and Gosden unraced horses but its still a guessers race
and I wouldnt oppose Audacity Of Hope at odds on in
the Nursery at 3.05. The Tattersalls race at 3.40 is a
complicated Sales race. Ran them all through the past
10 winners of this race. I thought TAKE TEN came
out best and could be the each way bet in the race but
there were no superb profiles and I wouldnt be making
anything a strong negative in the race. After that it's
back to maidens and nurseries again and no real edges.
Have no option but to ignore the meeting.


NEWBURY

Nothing to say in the Juvenile races. Small fields dominate
much of the card. I think I would oppose Stimulation in the
3.55pm with just 1 run this year and Tariq or Huntdown are
the obvious alternatives. I dont want to commit to the 4.30
as the race has suddenly become a class 4 race having been a
class 2 race for most of its long history. It is just not a card I can offer any strong clues about so ducking it as well.


AYR

AYR is full of races we either can not do or should
not do. Most of the maidens these days can best be
summed up by sticking the favourites in each way
doubles but no point wasting time on these races
and I dont like Nurseries either so that has left Ayr
looking pretty unnatractive. I do like the Staying
race (done earlier). Other than that all I can say is
that in the Roseberry Stakes (3.30pm) I shortlisted
only MISTER MANANNAN and SKYLLA but that
doenst help much as both are 1st and 2nd favourites.

The "Bronze Cup" (4.05pm) does not interest me
with a huge field an dno past renewals. The 4.40pm
is a 5f Handicap with a long history. The trends are
pretty good in this race despite several big priced
shocks over the years. They say that the winner is
unlikely to have ever run in a Group race before so
ignore those. You must have a distance winner. The
winner will probably have ran within the past 2 weeks.
If you have a 3 year old it must have ran within two
weeks and must have come from a 5f race and must
have under 13 career starts and must be a Male horse.
All Female horses must have ran within 2 weeks. I'd
be looking at 6 potential winners that pass these stats

Stolt - The Nifty Fox - Guto
Rothesay Dancer - Luscivious- Imprimis Tagula

I didnt like THE NIFTY FOX's or LUSCIVIOUS's draw
but thats not a good enough reason to rule them out and
although THE NIFTY FOX is 0-30 in fields of 10 runners
or more I suppose the field could split. Neither would be
my first choice. GUTO also looks less likely than some.
I thought ROTHERSAY DANCER was big at 16/1. She
and STOLT look options.

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