No Account Bet

1 Selection

Musselburgh 8.25

SOLAS ALAINN

Win Bet 7/4


SOLAS ALAINN is 7/4 with most bookmakers this
morning. Comfortably my best bet today. I havent
gone to town on the message. More a brief chat in
a few races made all the more annoying when I keep
losing selections at Wolverhampton with non runners.

Planned to start the week with a very low key message
anyway. Confidence in todays bet is very high. I prefer
account bets at bigger prices but I have gone with plenty
in the past that had far less chance. I think he will win
and think he is a good start to the week.


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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G



Saturday has 3 selections and we came out with two losers
and a Break Level race. My main choice was a win bet and
saver and the saver (Violent Velocity) won. Didn't do much
wrong there. Broke level on the bet and no damage done. I
wasnt too confident with Resplendant Light but felt given a
decent price in a small field he was worth a bet but he lost as did my each way double at Lingfield. Bottom of the message held its own after a good late rally but the main business at the top of the message let us down.


The next two weeks are so busy. The number of meetings
increases and we have a heatwave so faster ground will be
back. I dont want to miss any oppurtunities and I want to
give myself as many chances as possible of getting account
bets going again. The selections are winning and more than
hold their own but dissapointed with the lack of maximums.

Bottom line is the more detailed the research and the write
ups and the more races looked at in any 1 message the less
chance of an account bet. Just the way it goes. If I push it to the extremes and do lots of previews the time that takes is taken from other areas that are important. Ive certainly been doing too many previews and need to cut back a bit at the moment. That should lead to stronger bets. This is our historical problem. The service is Unique in that it trys to specialise in an area that few others do and even fewer try and articulate these trends and angles in several previews.

Thats what gives it its edge but it does come at a cost and
I dont always balance it right and why its tended to be a
love it or hate it experience. Results show we are still at a good standard of profit and have been for years. I know I can improve that a lot but the cost of that will be a Far less detailed service the dilemma we always have had.




W O L V E R H A M P T O N



I would have ignored the opening race. Too hard. You want
under 13 runs and at least two that year. A Horse that hadnt won before would be advantage as well. So would a horse that wasnt placed last time. Watch the market with Tarruji who seems to fit that profile as well as most


The 3.30 handicap is full of classy stables and there should be far more outsiders than there are. Its too competetive. I'd be nervous COUNTENANCE has to step up so far in trip and he wouldnt be for me. There are 299 similar races run around this time and only 1 horse like NAHEEL won via a 2yo maiden so he wouldnt appeal. None of the 299 winners were similar to HORSLEY WARRIOR. I dont feel SPIRITUAL TREASURE did enough last time. I respect RED CADEAUX but there is a serious chance he wont stay. I like DECORUM and also see CALALOO as a big runner. Would still be too open.


Hard to see past BEAUCHAMP VICEROY. He is rated 5lbs
better than Dabbers Ridge but also gets 14lbs weight from that horse making him interesting. He is better drawn - better suited to the surface and with a more recent run. I would think he may beat DABBERS RIDGE. I looked at HANOVERIAN BARON as he was beaten over 10 lengths last time out. Horses that lost by 10 + lengths over 7f or shorter last time struggled. With under 13 career runs like HANOVERIAN BARON they were 0-101 and none had under 3 runs that year (0-69) as he does and I wouldnt want to trust him as an alternative. I felt the best of these had to be BEAUCHAMP VICEROY but a short price does take some of the shine off him.


You are guessing in the maiden at 4.30. There will be around 3-4 serious runners. Couldnt find a winner like Fonterutoli so he doesnt appeal. BRADFORD eachway could be an option.


The 5pm is a long way from my comfort zone and dont plan
to cover it but I wouldnt have gone with Fleeting Star as a lighly raced 3yo filly. I wouldnt oppose NINTH HOUSE in the last race as he won well last time and is well handicapped.

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P O N T E F R A C T



I didnt like much at Pontefract at all today. Just a couple of races were worthy of a mention. Not a card I want to bet on.



The Lady Amateur Riders Handicap at 2.15pm has a compact
and competetive field. I went through the runners and took
out all the profiles I had problems with. I felt there were Four horses that came out best and I would see one of these as most likely winner. Hard to split them and much will come down to luck in running but My best 4 are SIR BOSS - STRIKE FORCE - MAN OF GWENT and last years 2nd GALA SUNDAY.


The fillies handicap at 2.45pm is complicated. I didnt see a case for GRETHEL. I'd be against KASSUTA with an absence
and AQUARIAN DANCER with 3 run this year. There were no similar winners of this race like HEL´S ANGEL but there
are one or two at other tracks. She's unimpressive statistically and not for me. PREMIER KRUG is too exposed for a 3 year old and opposable. GEORGIE BEE looked unsafe. The two that stand out are SAIRAAM and SINGORA LADY who we
backed 8 days ago here as the daily selection. Given a choice I just felt SAIRAAM had a slightly better profile and of the two had the more scope for improvement. SAIRAAM for me.

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W I N D S O R


You are guessing in the Maiden at 6.40 with so many unraced
horses and the market will have to guide. The most likely to win statistically would have to be VIRGINIA HALL but that will depend on something unraced not being decent but we are in the dark about that.


The 7.10 race is a seller and the last 4 times EL DECECY hasdropped into this Grade he has won. He is strong statistically as is FYODOR who I didnt mind coming from 5f which quite surprised me. 69 similar races and none had an absence of 4 + months so MATUZA didnt appeal and neither does the 3yo filly LEFTONTHESHELF. I wouldnt be interested in those. I respect BERTIE SOUTHSTREET as any horse with a win very recently has to be considered. I just felt FYODOR had the edge with stronger form than him and getting weight as well. I would just shade it to FYODOR but its open.


The 7.40 is a maiden and there has been 129 of these races
at this time of year over 6f. The market is strongly pointing to RUSSIAN SPIRIT being the one. She is a filly coming via a 2yo maiden. There were 54 fillies doing that and only one won. Not a great record. She smells fancied and I dont see it as a killer stat but there is no reason MAVERIN cant win a race like this assuming he handles faster ground. I dont feel SUMMERS TARGET is out of this either. The market may insist that RUSSIAN SPIRIT is the one and she may be but Ive found only 1 similar winner in 129 races and there may be an each way alternative such as MAVERIN.


RACING HERO is odds on in a handicap in the 8.10pm and
Its pretty obvious he will be very well handicapped. From a
Top Stable and well bred it is easy to see why he short but
odds on makes no appeal and I wouldnt endorse him at all
statistically. Since 1992 there has been over 19 thousand
handicaps at 10f and shorter. Thats 19,000 + handicaps
in any class at any time of year as long as it was over 10f
or shorter. If you look at 3 year olds like RACING HERO
that come from maidens over 12f or more as he does you
find only 3 winners in over 19 thousand races that managed
that in a 3-112 record. None of those had 2 runs (0-3) and
only 1 had 3 runs (1-36). None also won that maiden over
12f and I cant see a similar winner to RACING HERO and
thats going back 17 years in thousands of races so given He is odds on he is a horse I would leave alone. I'd much rather take better odds about TRANS SIBERIAN who has stronger handicap form and he could be the natural each way bet.


The 8.40 is a Fillies handicap just short of 12 furlongs. I've looked at 122 Fillies Handicaps between 11f and 12f in both June and July. INIS BOFFIN comes from an 8f handicap for 3 year olds. I dont like the 8f trip risers. There havent been too many that tried what she is trying but only 4 winners came from 8f or shorter and none were as exposed as she is and none had a recent run and INIS BOFFIN looks unsafe to me. I wouldnt have thought KINGS KAZEEM or UIG were the ones. This will come down to how the horses with Three runs get on. CHANROSSA - COURSE DE DIAMANTE and SILKEN PROMISE all have 3 runs and how they get on will determine what strength in depth there is. Horses that came from 3yo maidens as they do have a 3-62 record which isnt great. COURSE DE DIAMANTE and CHANROSSA ran in two different divisions of the same Newbury maiden. The finishing positions and times of that maiden do point on an artificial level to COURSE DE DIAMANTE being superior
but I dont see it like that and feel that starting 66/1 last time she was flattered and I'd see CHANROSSA as a bigger threat. SILKEN PROMISE has to be considered but I'd have been more reassured if her sire had bred a winner over 11f or more and he hasnt so possibly a stamina doubt exists. I see PERSIAN MEMORIES as close to the top of the list if not top. PERSIAN MEMORIES just looks the best option.

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MUSSELBURGH 8.25

STERLING SOLUTIONS HANDICAP
(CLASS 5)(4yo+ 0-70) 1m4f100y

5/2 Mooted, 3/1 Solas Alainn, 4/1 Thorny Mandate,
5/1 Piper's Song, 11/2 Papa's Princess, 12/1 Ptolomeos.

This is a 12f handicap and I think SOLAS ALAINN will
outclass this field. He is a 67 rated horse that faces a 0-62 handicap. He drops from a Class 2 race to a Class 5 race against inferior horses. Statistically he is very good. I had a look at all similar 12f handicaps at this time of year

* Horses coming from Class 2 handicaps over 12f
* When they had 9 or more runs
* When having 4 + runs that season
* When running within a Month
* When carrying 9st 7lbs or more
* SOLAS ALAINN fits that profile
* These horses had a 6-10 record
* Throw out a rank outsider and the full record is
* W W W 2 W 2 3 W W

SOLAS ALAINN ran well on his seasonal debut when 3rd in
a 0-71 handicap. That was from a higher rating. Good start
to the year. He then went to Newbury a Grade 1 track and
found the ground beat him. It was too soft that day and it
was a much better race than this. It was no surprise he was
beaten over 2 miles next time as the step up from 2 miles
counted against him. He was only beaten a length and it was a better race than this. SOLAS ALAINN then stepped up to a Class 2 Handicap. Bear in Mind his highest rated opponent today is rated 65 you can see what a drop in class it is. His opponnets last time were all rated between 70 and 88. He ran an excellent race considering the class of the race when coming 6th. The 2nd and 5th have come out winning much better handicaps than this. I dont see SOLAS ALAINN as having too much to beat.

PIPER´S SONG comes here having just been hammered
over hurdles which can't be an advantage. His previous run
at Chester saw him beaten the same distance in a much worse
race than SOLAS ALAINN did it a much better one. It's hard
to make a case for PTOLOMEOS being fit and ready to win.
PAPA´S PRINCESS is a mare up in distance with no backclass
at all. THORNY MANDATE has ran 54 times and is seven
and has been nowhere near the class SOLAS ALAINN has.
MOOTED brings Class 5 form only into this race. I think
the drop in class SOLAS ALAINN takes will be enough for
him to outclass his rivals.

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