No Account Bet

No Selections

Lots of heavy rain about. The ground has been affected at
most tracks. I think I will go with a Blank day and see how
Newmarket in particular is riding and what draw advantage
there is. I want to have some confident selections and am
quite prepared to wait for those. I will probably have a few little bets myself from the message. Some bets I'd describe as "Minimum stake " and just interest bets on the likes of Cumana Bay (1.30) and Admiral Dundas (5.30pm) which are good prices in tough races. Looking at shorter priced options Slip (2.45) and Soccer (3.55) both look winners in waiting and whilst neither are suitable for strong bets I may just have the each way double if eight horses run in both races. I think both my Worcester bets will win and if there's a selection today that got away and one I should have gone with it might be GRASSCUTTER each way at Worcester in the 6.10pm race. I dont want to fall victim to the ground changing there when there are unraced and lightly raced runners with reasonable claims so decided to leave him and all others at the bottom of the message.

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T O D A Y ' S R A C I N G



Yesterdays selection Carpe Diem ran ok but was not good
enough to hold on from some improving horses and lost.
Plenty of problems today with the rain and ground changes
especially at Newmarket where the draw looks hard to call.




NEWMARKET 1.30

EBF HOTEL CHOCOLAT FILLIES´ HANDICAP
(CLASS 2)(3yo 0-100) 7f

5/1 Cumana Bay, 6/1 Balaagha, 6/1 Mo Mhuirnin, 7/1 First City, 8/1 Good Again, 9/1 Photographic, 12/1 Pyrrha, 12/1 Resort, 14/1 Lovely Thought, 16/1 Mastoora, 20/1 Foundation Room, Never Lose, 25/1 Arabian Mirage, 25/1 Sea Of Leaves, Rosabee, 40/1 Greenisland.

Really tough Fillies Handicap. I had a good look at what has won this race in its long history. I wouldnt want the topweight or any seasonal debutants. I wouldnt want the very low drawn horses. I would oppose all the runners from 6f or shorter as they had a 0-46 record. I didnt want any horse coming from Handicaps in Class 5 or lower as this is a Class 2 and its a leap too far. That puts me off MO MHUIRININ. I think looking at profiles and horses in this race that are likely to provide a winner I can see two strong ones and a possible in RESORT. There hasnt been a winner of this race like RESORT and the 62 day absence has to be a problem but you couldnt rule her out and she is a danger. The two strongest runners though are BALAAGHA and CUMANA BAY. If you look at horses that were 1st or 2nd last time out in a recent all aged handicap over 7f or more they did very well. In the 19 renewals of this
race these horses had a 6-13 record which is excellent and two of these won the same race CUMANA BAY won at Newmarket
last time. CUMANA BAY has won on soft ground which will
be a help in this race and he is a serious runner. BALAAGHA may have slightly more improvement but she isnt proven on soft ground and her American Parentage does worry me on that score. The best profile for me belongs to CUMANA BAY.

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NEWMARKET 5.30

HOME OF RACING HANDICAP(CLASS 3)(3yo+ 0-90) 1m

3/1 Last Three Minutes, 4/1 Marajaa, 7/1 Dancourt,
8/1 Admiral Dundas, 8/1 Mujood, 10/1 Kinsya, 12/1
Castles In The Air, 12/1 Turning Top, 14/1 Habshan,
16/1 Canongate, 16/1 Mastership, 20/1 Dingaan, 25/1 Saltagioo.


* This is an 8f Handicap for horses rated 0-88
* Newmarket has 24 similar races in July
* There has been 303 similar races elsewhere
* Since 2006 there has been 38 handicaps here
* Thats 38 Handicaps over 8f at Newmarket with 9 + runners
* In these 38 Handicaps horses drawn 1-2-3-4 struggled
* They had a combined 2-134 record which is awful
* The 3 times the ground was Good-soft they were drawn high
* The winners were drawn in Stalls 12-15-11 with 11-13-10 runners
* MASTERSHIP is out drawn 1
* MASTERSHIP comes from a 7f race as well
* In 24 Newmarket handicaps horses doing this struggled
* With 13 or more career runs they were 0-51
* MASTERSHIP is rejected
* DANCOURT has a poor draw in stall 2
* DANCOURT comes from a 3yo handicap
* All horse that did that had 3 + runs this year
* None had under 8st 12lbs
* I just wonder if he will have the class with Bottomweight
* I looked at horses like him in 303 other races
* Horses from 3yo handicaps with 1-2 runs that season
* Those that had 4 + runs as he does were 1-52
* Thats not impressive and helps me decide against him
* Given his poor draw DANCOURT is rejected
* KINSYA is drawn badly in stall 3
* KINSYA is exposed as were 7 of the 24 Newmarket winners
* At Newmarket exposed horses did best with 5 + runs that year
* Those with under that were 1-55 and KINSYA fails that
* He is quite well handicapped though and has won on soft
* With a better draw and more runs this year he is fanciable
* The Draw does worry me enough to overlook him though
* CASTLES IN THE AIR is not drawn well in stall 4
* He has never run at a Mile before
* He also has a career high mark
* We also know in 24 Newmarket races 7f horses struggle
* With 13 + runs they have a 0-51 record
* With that fact and the draw CASTLES IN THE AIR is out
* In 24 Newmarket races Fillies are 0-55
* TURNING TOP is the only filly and has 4 runs from a 7f maiden
* In 303 other races Fillies won 37 races
* Only 1 came from a maiden and that was an 8f one with 6 runs
* In 303 races I looked at Fillies like her from 7f or shorter
* Fillies aged 3-4-5 doing that had a poor 2-91 record
* None came from maidens like TURNING TOP
* TURNING TOP just doesnt look to have a good profile.
* CANONGATE has been absent 271 days
* All 24 Newmarket winners ran within 49 days
* Only 8 of the 303 other winners were debutants
* I dont see CANONGATE winning with 10st
* In 24 Newmarket races horses with 9st 11lbs + struggled
* They had a 1-64 record and CANONGATE fails that
* HABSHAN also fails that with 9st 11lbs
* That doesnt worry me much to be honest
* HABSHAN won this race last year with 9st 10lbs
* He was an 8yo then and had 3 runs that season
* Now he is a 9yo with just 2 runs this season
* The 24 Newmarket races show 3 + runs this year are needed
* Those with under 3 runs that year had a 1-53 record
* I looked at 303 similar handicaps to this elsewhere
* Horses aged 8 or more with under 3 runs that year were 0-32
* No horse aged 9 or more won with under 4 runs that year
* I dont see HABSHAN having the same chance as last year
* SALTAGIOO doesnt appeal on his current form
* He hasnt beaten a horse in his last two races
* There were no obvious excuses either and he's out
* I dont have major problems with MUJOOD
* Quite a high weight and handicap mark though
* Especially for a horse whose not on his best track
* I didnt see any reason why he should be the selection
* DINGAAN is exposed and comes from 7f
* We know 24 races here and 7f horses with 13 + runs are 0-51
* DINGAAN is well handicapped though
* His only run at a Mile was a heavy defeat though
* He hasnt won in over 2 years and may be best on sand
* He needs to be held up and come late and ideally race alone
* There are too many quirks to be confident with him
* There is some temprement there and he is a thinker
* I wouldnt rule him out but he is unsafe

SHORTIST

ADMIRAL DUNDAS - MARAJAA - LAST THREE MINUTES

* MARAJAA won with a lot in hand last time
* He is well drawn and doesnt look badly treated
* On his last run you can fancy him a lot
* Statistically I dont have a problem with him
* He finished 8th in this race last year
* He was a seasonal debutant though last year and unfit
* His biggest issue may be whether he handles soft ground
* He has little form on soft and hasnt placed yet on it
* The Ground and his running style are his issues to overcome
* LAST THREE MINUTES looks fine statistically
* He ran an excellent 3rd last time and was unlucky
* That was a better race than this
* Owned by Alex Ferguson and others he must go well
* ADMIRAL DUNDAS has had just 2 runs this year
* Only 1 horse won one of the 24 races with under 3 runs
* I looked for similar 4 year olds in 303 races
* Those with 9 + runs and under 3 that year were 7-96
* I would make ADMIRAL DUNDAS a Positive
* He has a good chance as well drawn and liking soft
* He won at this track last year over a Mile in July


The Ground will be the key. LAST THREE MINUTES
will probably get away with good to soft but any softer
and I would be worried as his sire Val Royal hasnt got a
brilliant record with his runners on soft ground yet and
its a concern. MARAJAA also has the same concerns
but I think both will be fine on good to soft ground. I'm
going with ADMIRAL DUNDAS as a well drawn horse
who handles the ground well.

SELECTION

ADMIRAL DUNDAS Each Way 10/1

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O T H E R R A C E S



NEWMARKET 2.00

Horrible race. Long history but such a tight complex handicap. Looking at what has happened before in this race I'd oppose the following groups of horses. Ignore all Fillies with under 5 runs and Fillies absent over a month as none have won. Ignore horses with 13 + career starts. Take out all horse from handicaps in Class 5 or lower. Ignore the horses that come from Listed or Group races as
they are 0-52 in this race. Ignore any horse with 1 run this year and I would also take out the low drawn stalls. I think there are 4 runners I could shortlist but confidence is low. PROCLAIM looks reasonable but the ground worries me. ENDERBY SPIRIT looks ok as well but his weight worries me. PARISIAN PYRAMIND and GLOBAL CITY look the other two with strong profiles. If I had to nominate one horse it would be PARISIAN PYRAMID.

NEWMARKET 2.35

The Cherry Hinton is a Group race for 2 year old fillies over 6f. Its usually won by horses with just 1 or 2 previous runs. Only 3 of the last 18 renewals went to horses with 3 or more runs and these types that come from 5f races struggle. I would want to oppose all horses
with 3 + runs that come from 5f races as only 1 past winner did that and none did it with 3 runs. Therefore CAPERCAILLIE - CROWN -CEEDWELL - MISHEER and LITTLE SCOTLAND are rejected. I would take out all horses that were not 1st or 2nd last time out. I do not want RADDY ´ELL PAULINE as all past winners bar one were foaled in March or earlier and she is a late April foal. SWAN WINGS
comes from a 5f maiden and only 1 past winner did that. I felt two horses stood out. HABAAYIB and LADY DARSHAAN. The chance of HABAAYIB will come down to how well she handles soft as this fast ground bred horse isnt proven on softer ground. The 1995-1997 winners were very similar to LADY DARSHAAN and around 18/1 she could run above herself.


LINGFIELD 2.45

Selling race and they all hav something to prove in terms of both fitness and absences. The only horse I would bet is SLIP.


CATTERICK 2.55

This 7f handicap at 2.55pm has been run 17 times since 1991. Horses with under 5 career starts were 0-27. Horses from maidens were 0-17. Horses that had 1-2-3 runs that year struggled winning just 2 of the 17 races in a 2-61 record. It's interesting 15 of the 17 winners had at least 4 runs that year. I would be against horses lightly
raced this year. I dont want a filly up in distance. My shortlist would be Mister Tinktastic -Northern Flyer -Lost In Paris - Steel Stockholder.



NEWMARKET 3.10

The Falmouth is a poor trends race. I dont take a strong view but the Windsor Forest SPACIOUS - HEAVEN SENT and EVA'S REQUEST come from hasnt been a strong clue for the Falmouth winner yet and I wonder if RAINBOW VIEW doesnt have a bit more class. The main issue will be how ready GOLDIKOVA is from France as although lightly raced this year she is rated much higher than anything in the race. Its a guessers race and mine is no better than anyone else's. My guess would be GOLDIKOVA and it's a race
that has been won more than once by France recently.

CATTERICK 3.30

Havent a lot of time for a tactical 7 runner staying race but on all know evidence ALWAYS BOLD would have to be my pick mainly as he is rated 85 and has been in much better class and now only has a 0-72 class field to beat. Think he is well placed and reasonable value around 9/2 but there are plenty of others that can win this race and its too open to consider as a strong bet.


NEWMARKET 3.45

Maiden race for 2 year olds and not a lot you can say. There has been 44 similar races in July at Newmarket. I would demand that my horse was under 20/1 (others 0-226) and ideally under 10/1 and that if he ran he was 1-2-3-4 last time out as those that were not were just 1-84. I would want a horse drawn high as well or at least not drawn in the bottom 5 stalls. I wouldnt want a horse from
an Auction maiden. This leaves 4 in LIQUID ASSET -RASSELAS
EMERALD COMMANDER and POET´S VOICE the Godolphin
horse whose stable are 4-7 with unraced horses in this.

LINGFIELD 3.55

There has been 89 Nurseries over 5f in July. I looked at horse that came from sellers like ITALIAN TOM. Those with just 2 runs as he has were 0-7 and those that won sellers with any runs hardly excelled (3-41). I would prefer SOCCER from a Listed race assuming he can give the weight away. Being a 93 rated horse much as thats only an estimate in a 0-75 I would go with SOCCER . I think he will beat ITALIAN TOM but whether thats enough to beat the rest is another matter. My idea of the winner is SOCCER. I looked at all 5f and 6f Nurseries for horses who came
from Listed and Group races like SOCCER. When they had 3 or 4 career runs like him they were 12-23 and those with 9st 7lbs or more had a 6-12 record. You can never be sure about the weight but I would give it SOCCER.


CATTERICK 5.15

Fascinating match between an older filly ROSES unbeaten in her 4 Bumper races but having to give weight to SPIEKEROOG from Henry Cecils. You can only try and guess how the national hunt ability ROSES has will be translated on the flat. Its a guess and I dont see how you can predict it. I take the view that the safer choice and better option at the prices has to be SPIEKEROOG.


WORCESTER 6.10

This is a 2m Maiden Hurdle and we have 89 similar races at
this time of year. GRASSCUTTER has a strong chance. In the
89 races horses placed 2-3-4 last time out in a 2m 4f Novice Hurdle had a 7-18 record (3-6 in this race) and GRASSCUTTER must go close. His profile is significantly better than a Bumper runner like SERAPHIM KNIGHT. One or two others with solid hopes but GRASSCUTTER has the best profile in my view.

WORCESTER 7.40

This is a 2m 4f Novice Hurdle and we have 251 similar races
around this trip at this time of year. HOPE ROAD is a 5yo
thats just won a Maiden Hurdle. There were 18 horses aged 5
doing that and 11 won. That 11-18 record is excellent and
it wouldnt surprise me if he won again.

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