Mathematician 814





Daily Recommendation

No Bet Today

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REVIEW OF LAST MESSAGE


Once VIA AURELIA had lost yesterday the message became
instantly dissapointing as no matter what other high points there are they pale into insignificance so Saturday was not a great day. With VIA AURELIA the excuses are hard to find. I overestimated the horse. I underestimated the winner. Both those factors and the way the winner stole the race and had a dream run made it look like an embarrasing bet and that made for a poor day. My other highlighted horse Saintly Lady won. I know a few will have turned the day around and won money because of that but many more wont have done and there is little mitigation despite her winning. It goes down as human error and a poor choice of bet which was dissapointing and I was very confident I had the race right yesterday but did not read it well. Not a good day and the message elsewhere was a
bit overbloated and one I'd like to quickly put behind me.

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MESSAGE THOUGHTS


One or two small problems overnight has forced the message
to change shape today. I am concentrating on 2 Handicaps at
Cheltenham today. Decided to try and get both races right so there is not a lot else in the message today. I didnt like either of the Fontwell or Market Rasen cards so no more than a brief paragraph at both meetings. Then a run through Cheltenham but overall there are just the 2 Handicap Hurdles to sort out.


It has not been a good week. We have taken a step back this
week and I havent fired at all. Today gives me nothing that I want to stake as a Full bet. I think this is a day where I should go with 1 bet on the day in this paragraph. Its not going to be easy to win the Greatwood hurdle but I have spent a long time on the race and think GET ME OUT OF HERE might win it.

I could not make him a strong bet but I do think he's worth a bet. It has occured to me that a lot of the mess I have made this week could be cleared up with a 7/1 winner so my plan is to try and recoup this week's losses on this horse. I would not put anyone off the same idea. Overall though there isnt much to work with today and its a chance to put this week behind us and look to do better next week. Just one of those tough weeks.

Today's Best Bet

Cheltenham 2.20

GET ME OUT OF HERE 7/1

Win Bet


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TODAY'S RACING


F O N T W E L L


Decided against any previews or detail today at Fontwell so
only a very small piece here. I did not have any outstanding.

If I had done the Handicap Hurdle at 2pm I would have based
the work around opposing Sir Du Bearn through inexperience
but there wasn't a clear alternative. Via Galilei looks the safer choice to me but I havent got a strong case for anything here.

It is a similar situation in the 3m4f Handicap Chase at 3.10pm as any preview I did would have opposed Mtpockets mainly as no 5 year old has ever won a race like this at any time of year coming from a hurdle race and because of that I would have to look elsewhere. Again no stand out alternative. Perhaps this is best left to Runshan but I needed better angles to be drawn in.

I wouldnt have opposed Bubbly Bruce in the last as a Grade 1 Bumper runner in a Maiden Hurdle but he will be odds on now.


M A R K E T R A S E N

Like Fontwell I wasnt that bothered about the small fields we are offered here. The opening race has 2 strong profiles with last time out 4yo winners. Statistically not much between the two horses but because he is a better price and because he must have fewer doubts on very soft ground I prefer BOW BADGER.

The 1.35pm is just messy and I probably would have gone with Keki Buku agreeing with the Racing Post analysis that shows a drop in class and breathing operation may be enough for him to win. Like them I can only guess with this horse so moving on.

There was very little in it statistically in the 2.45pm and these long distance Novice Handicaps can be dangerous but being one year older and having a more recent run and more races in this season gives Neptune Equester a slighly better profile here.

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C H E L T E N H A M


Analysis wise I want to focus on the Handicap Hurdles at
2.20pm and 2.55pm and they are my main preview races.
I have not gone to town on the other races but a few brief
words about these races first before the main previews.


CHELTENHAM 1.10

This is a tricky Novice Chase made more difficult by the
fact no horse has tried to win this having run in a Novice
Hurdle this season so CAPTAIN CHRIS cant be assessed.
I respect KILMURRY but a lack of Graded form worries
me for a well raced horse with a penalty.GHIZAO doesnt
feel right beaten in a chase this season. RADIUM has to
come down in trip something no past winner managed to
do with his profile. I still see him as the main danger and
he and LOOSEN MY LOAD just looked safer options to
me. Tight choice where I went with LOOSEN MY LOAD.


CHELTENHAM 1.45

This Chase is a very new race here and doesnt have any
history to it and there are no similar races elsewhere so
I have nothing to go on. I am not much off a complete
guess here because of that. Experience won the day with
the only past renewal last year going to an older horse
and I would have to argue FORPADYDEPLASTERER
has achieved far more over fences and is proven more
so in what looks a match I would have to go with him.


CHELTENHAM 2.20

Greatwood Handicap Hurdle Grade 3
(CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m110y

6/1 Manyriverstocross, 6/1 Sanctuaire, 13/2 General Miller
13/2 Menorah, 7/1 Get Me Out Of Here, 8/1 Sure Josie Sure
14/1 Olofi, 16/1 Any Given Day, 16/1 Astracad, 25/1 St Devote 25/1 Tarkari, 28/1 Fiulin, 33/1 Bothy, Issaquah, 40/1 Orsippus 50/1 Culcabock, 50/1 Leslingtaylor, 50/1 Puzzlemaster.

* This is a Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle over 2 Miles
* There has been 17 renewals of this race
* There are 55 similar races elsewhere
* None of the 55 winners were aged 9 or more
* CULCABOCK has to be eliminated as a 10yo
* There were 4 seasonal debutant winners in this race
* Some of these had been running on the flat though
* They all had under 5 career starts
* Seasonal debutants with 6 or more runs were 0-54
* SURE JOSIE SURE fails that and no Mare won first time
* Seasonal debutants from Handicaps last year struggled
* SURE JOSIE SURE also fails this and looks wrong
* None came from Novice Handicaps like BOTHY
* Horses with 13 or more career starts have a poor record
* LESLINGTAYLOR is too exposed to win this race
* ORSIPPUS is too exposed for a 4 year old
* ISSAQUAH is too exposed to win
* Horses aged 4 have a poor record in this race
* Since 1988 Horses aged 4 are 1-50 in this race
* The only winner was Detriot City in 2006
* He came from a Grade 1 race and won in a small field
* PUZZLEMASTER is the wrong type of 4yo
* OLOFI doesnt appeal aged 4 and coming via handicaps
* ASTRACAD is also 4 and comes from a handicap
* ASTRACAD doesnt have the right backclass to win
* Horses from Novice Hurdles this season struggled
* Only 1 horse did that and he had 1 career start
* FIULIN makes no appeal beaten in a Novice Hurdle last time
* You want a horse that was 1st or 2nd last time out
* 15 of the last 18 winners were 1-2 last time out
* You dont want a horse with a poor last run
* ST DEVOTE doesnt have the right profile
* TARKARI also has the wrong preparation for this
* ANY GIVEN DAY won a 2m 4f Handicap last time
* There were 2 winners that did that in 55 similar races
* Neither managed it in this race
* None did it with 9 or more runs as he has either
* The only winners did it in very small fields
* They also had light weights
* ANY GIVEN DAY doesnt offer me enough


SHORTLIST

* GET ME OUT OF HERE didnt run well last time
* Pretty sure he wasnt there to do his best last time
* I do think his run this year gives him an edge over many
* The 1997 winner gives me hope that he can win this

* MENORAH is a 5 year old seasonal debutant
* There were 3 winners aged 5 on their seasonal debuts
* All 3 had under 6 career starts
* MENORAH has 7 and is a little more exposed than them
* The seasonal debutants aged 5 all had much less weight
* Thats a tough weight to carry for a seasonal debutant
* MENORAH would appeal as a possible but no more


* GENERAL MILLER is a 5 year old seasonal debutant
* There were 3 winners aged 5 on their seasonal debuts
* All 3 had under 6 career starts
* GENERAL MILLER has 7 and is a little more exposed than them
* The seasonal debutants aged 5 all had much less weight
* I cant match him excactly to any past winner

* MANYRIVERSTOCROSS is a 5 year old seasonal debutant
* There were 3 winners aged 5 on their seasonal debuts
* All 3 had under 6 career starts
* With 6 runs and a light weight I'd see him as fine

* SANCTUAIRE is the right type of 4 year old
* The only 4yo winner was Detriot City in 2006
* He was a seasonal debutant from a Grade 1 race with 5 runs
* He came from the same race as SANCTUAIRE
* In 55 races horses with that profile won 2 races
* Males with 5-6 runs had a 2-2 record in the 55 races
* SANCTUAIRE comes out very well on those angles
* His Hurdles profile is identical to the only 4yo winner of this
* That said Detriot City (2006) did have a run on the flat
* He also won the Grade 1 at Aintree last year
* SANCTUAIRE didnt achieve that but he is shortlistable


C O N C L U S I O N

There are a few important areas in this race to consider and that helps with a selection. First of all we have half the field at massive prices and looking outclassed. This hasnt been a great race for shocks and the only 2 big priced winners were aged 5-6 who had several runs in a handicap hurdle this year and aged 5 or 6. There are no obvious candidates here. The bigger priced ASTRACAD and OLOFI are 4 year olds and it is a poor race for that age group. ST DEVOTE was a bigger priced outsider with recent runs but he lacks backclass. The race will probably fall to one of the "Big Beasts" this year.

Another issue is seasonal debutants. Whilst we have had a
few seasonal debutants win you have to divorce those from
the ones that had ran on the Flat this year. Many winners
having their first run of the year had ran on the Flat and
didnt have to overcome a long absence. Then there is the
relationship between the Seasonal debutants that have ran
in Grade 1-2 Novice Hurdles and that have not raced this
year and that have to carry large weights. You go back in
this race and look for seasonal debutants that won with a
weight of more than 11st and you will not find many that
won. Almost all had raced in Ireland or on the Flat and I
think this is a very hard race to win first time out with a
big weight. Horses like MENORAH - GENERAL MILLER
SANCTUAIRE and MANYRIVERSTOCROSS all come via Grade 1 Novice Hurdles last season. If you look at the past
winners that took this route coming from races such as the
Supreme Novice Hurdle last year or the Neptune you dont
see a good record. There are only 2 winners that have done
that. They were DETRIOT CITY (2006) and NUMIDE in 2008 and they have things in common. DETRIOT CITY had ran on the flat that year and had won the Cesarewitch and had no fitness worries. Equally NUMIDE had ran three times on the flat and all in Group races and was also fit. It is a race where no Grade 1 Novice has won without having a run on the Flat beforehand and that worries me about so many of the "Big Beasts" in this race most of whom have big weights to overcome as well. All these Grade 1 Novices
that came from Aintree of Cheltenham to win this had a
run on the Flat this year. Thats why I think we should go
with a horse that has the right class but that has also had a race this year either on the Flat or over Hurdles.

SELECTION

GET ME OUT OF HERE

Statistically he didnt really run as well as I'd have liked last time but I am ignoring that. First of all it seems a very likely scenario that he wasnt meant to win on his sesonal debut. I fancied him last time and he had a good profile. After he lost the Chatter on the internet was a lot to do with him being given a deliberately quiet ride and when you think about had he won that race he may
have been weighted out of this race. Lets assume that's
a prep race for this. I can offer the 1997 winner of this
(Mr Percy) as a 6 year old winner than had 1 race this
season and got well beaten on his previous start. Thats
the precedent I need and although he prepped in a better
race GET ME OUT OF HERE is far superior horse and
has achieved much more than Mr Percy ever did. I see
a recent run be it on the Flat or Hurdles a great help in
this race and thats why I am turning a blind eye to the
dissapointing race GET ME OUT OF HERE ran last
time. It may have been dissapointing to those that bet
him last time. I suspect it was a more pleasing run to
his trainer Jonjo O'Neill who has a W 2 3 L record in
this race from his 4 runners. I have to be scared of so
many here but I think GET ME OUT OF HERE has
been laid out for the race and his prep run might well
give him the edge over the other big beasts in this.

SELECTION - GET ME OUT OF HERE 7/1


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CHELTENHAM 2.55

Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle
(CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-140) 2m5f

9/2 For Non Stop, 11/2 Mister Hyde, 7/1 Grands Crus
15/2 Lush Life, 8/1 Cappagh, Russian War, 10/1 King´s Legacy 10/1 Rock County, 12/1 Hidden Keel, 14/1 Heez A Cracker 14/1 Politeo, Riptide, 25/1 Baracas, 25/1 Rigadin De Beauchene 40/1 Accordingtoemandem, Hoback Junction, 40/1 Sophies Trophy 40/1 Westlin´ Winds.


This is a Class 2 Handicap Hurdle over 2m 5f. It is just about the only similar races run at this time of year certainly in the last 15 years or so. There are 11 renewals of this race since it was upgraded so the 11 races are all we have to go on. I think the winner will be aged 5 or 6 as they have won 10 of the 11.

Horses aged 4 have a 0-38 record in the 11 renewals and that speaks volumes. Only one horse aged 4 came second and just 3 of the 38 that tried placed in the race so I think we should be against the 4 year olds. WESTLIN´ WINDS - POLITEO are 4 and outclassed anyway. RIPTIDE has to go as he's aged 4 and has a high weight. HEEZ A CRACKER is also rejected as a 4 year old from a Novice Hurdle. Some look outclassed.

BARACAS ismout of his depth from a 2m race. I couldnt be
with HOBACK JUNCTION beaten easily in a Novice Hurdle
this year.SOPHIES TROPHY -ACCORDINGTOEMANDEM are out of their depths as is RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE too.

Thi race is dominated by lightly raced horses. You want to be with horses with under 13 National hunt races and ideally just a few hurdle races and not that many handicap runs.

Past winners had the following National Hunt runs

5 7 8 5 16 1 10 6 8 12

Past winners had the following Hurdle Runs

3 3 5 4 16 1 10 4 5 10

Past winners had the following Handicap runs

1 0 0 2 14 0 6 1 1 7

There are very few winners of this race that had experience
and that were well raced. The 2005 winner (Hordago) won it
when having several runs but he was lucky that year and only won as the second horse who was lightly raced made a serious mistake jumping the last hurdle. The best thing to do is to be against horses that have ran several times before and that are well raced and lacking improvement. RUSSIAN WAR looks a horse to avoid with far more runs than is ideal. I would also be against ROCK COUNTY more exposed than ideal and now in a higher class race after some low grade wins. CAPPAGH also has more hurdle runs than ideal and doesnt appeal from a chase.

HIDDEN KEEL has raced this season in a Handicap and the
record of horses doing that is 2-71. Both winners had far less weight and no horse came out and won a handicap this season and then went and won this. MISTER HYDE also fails that and having been punished 16lbs by the handicapped for a win in a weaker race I would look elsewhere. FOR NON STOP is another that has been out and won a handicap this season so I would steer clear of him. There hasnt been a winner of this race that won a handicap this season and all of these fail that.

The vast majority of winners are very lightly raced seasonal debutants. KING´S LEGACY has that profile but is weak and drifting in the betting and his trainer has said he needs the run.

SHORTLIST


LUSH LIFE - GRANDS CRUS

I think these 2 horses stand out in the race and have a
similar profile to the 2008 winner. GRANDS CRUS has
less weight which could swing it his way but I see more
class in LUSH LIFE and think he has the better chance.

Win Bet LUSH LIFE 4/1
Saver GRANDS CRUS 4/1



I'm ignoring the 3.30pm Hurdle as the race has many Irish
raiders that I won't be able to sort out properly. I should be ignoring the Bumper as well with little I can say as well.

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