No Account Bet


Not had a Full bet this week. It's been scrappy and
a bit scattergun. We've arrrived at a couple of days
where there is more National Hunt racing than Flat.

Today there are 4 National Meetings and just one
Flat card on the Grass. Tomorrow there are also 4
National Hunt meetings and just 1 Flat card which
is full of small fields tomorrow so whether these 2
days are going to throw up any strong bets or not
is open to some doubt. It has not been a flowing
week so far and the top of the message has been
a bit threadbear. National Hunt dominated cards
threaten that as well. I have to take it day by day.
Not over worried about a lack of bets this week.

Looking at today I thought Fontwell had a couple
of interesting races. SHOEGAZER comes out well
at 2.20pm. He strikes me more an each way double
bet but even at 5/2 he looks quite a good bet in a
race where others had flaws. CITY STABLE looks
interesting in the Novice Chase half an hour later.
Nothing stands out too much on the Flat today.
Its a Mixed Jumps-Flat Message covering some
of 3 seperate cards but as for strong bets there's
nothing that stands out today as backable.


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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G


I thought I made a bit of a mess of yesterday's
message. In the end I had one possible option
with the last race at Catterick. I turned it down
as I had 3 shortlisted and each of them had to
overcome one problem or another. The three
came 1st 4th and 9th but chances are had we
gone with a bet it would have been the better
priced ones and I put it down to being almost
right in the race but having too many choices.



There is only 1 Flat meeting today at Beverley
so I have done what I can there and think it is
a card where I can preview just two races. The
message starts with a few National Hunt words
at Perth. Then 2 races at Fontwell. I thought it
was horrible tonight at Uttoxeter so leaving it
alone as I am Southwell as well.



N A T I O N A L H U N T



P E R T H


The 2.10 pm is a 2m Novice Hurdle. I didn't much like
TANGO FOXTROT's profile. He has not run since he
ran in Ireland 189 days ago. Horses in all similar races
absent more than 4 months struggled. There were 8 of
them that won but none had 13 or more career starts as
he does - None were aged 7 or more (0-65) and those
like him without a win were 1-175. TANGO FOXTROT
looks wrong to me. The question is whether we row in
with CICERON or whether there is a better alternative.
I couldn't bet unraced horses who have a 1-161 record
in these races so BALNAGORE is avoided. I dont like
TEN POLE TUDOR who hasn't done enough yet and
who has stamina doubts. SOLIS is a little too exposed.
I had to work hard to get QUITE THE MAN close to
being acceptable. CICERON is a complicated horse to
asses. Horses from Handicaps are fine in all of these
races. However only 1 was a 4 year old and he didnt
do it in this race he didnt do it with an absence and he
didnt come from a 2n handicap. CICERON is a unsafe
as I can't find a winner like him but I would rather be
with him than any of the others in the race.


The rest of the Perth card looks unnatractive and too
difficult. In the 2.40pm I thought TOP IT ALL came out
better than Solway Ally or Aghill and was the deserved
favourite but a huge field tempers enthusiasm especially
as the each way terms are poor in the race. I dont have
a strong view in the Hunter Chase where its hard to be
against ISLAND FLYER down in class. These races are
won many times by horses with long absences as he's
got having fell at the first at Aintree so It wouldnt be a
big worry and he looks the one. The 3m Chase at 3.45pm
has a small field. As younger horses have the best of it
in this race and as Horses flopping at Aintree have won
the race before it takes out any objection I might had to
the odds on favourite BACKSTAGE. I dont see a good
case for opposing him. I dont want to bet or oppose the
4.20 favourite DE BOITRON who is far too short for me.


The 4.55pm is a 2m 4f Handicap Hurdle with quite a long
history. The last 15 years of this race show that 14 of the 15 winners were unexposed unlike both TERENZIUM or
HEARTHSTEAD DREAM. They show you want to be against horses that are very lightly raced this year and that hurts LEAD ON and ASTARADOR. They show it is a race that has never been won by a 4 year old before so TILLIETUDLEM is out as well. Horses from 2m races struggled and won only 1 race. None were mares from a 2m race like SURE JOSIE SURE. I would also be against SAMBULANDO and LOS NADIS from 2m races. There are weaknesses with OH SO HUMBEL from a chase and a career high hurdles mark. The strongest runners are
QUARTZ DE THAIX and PONTOP who come from the same handicap hurdle at Cheltenham 8 days ago. It is a relevant fact that the 2009 and 2008 winners of this also came from the same Cheltenham handicap hurdle. Both winners were beaten but placed in that race and aged 7 and 8 which makes PONTOP the strongest runner.

SELECTION

PONTOP Each Way 4/1

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F O N T W E L L



FONTWELL 2.20

Hardings Catering Novices´ Hurdle (CLASS 4)
(4yo+) 2m6f110y

2/1 Shoegazer, 9/4 Whistlejacquet, 5/2 Latin America,
10/1 Converti, 10/1 Qianshan Leader, 25/1 Wild Bay,
40/1 Annie The Doc, 100/1 Hazy Bay, 150/1 Island News.

This is a 2m 6f Novice Hurdle. There looks to be 3 strong
runners in this race. I thought SHOEGAZER had the best
profile of the 3 main runners. I feel LATIN AMERICA and
WHISTLEJACQUET are reasonable chances but both are
hurt by having fewer runs this year. In all similar Novice
Hurdles around 2m 6f I looked at 5 year olds like both who
came from Novice or Maiden Hurdles with just 1-2-3 runs
that season. There were 14 winners that did that but those
that had 4 or more career starts as both do were 0-45. The
stats say that when 5 year olds have 4 or more runs they
want 4 or more runs this season. That just hurts them so
with horses like SHOEGAZER winning maiden hurdles on
their last start quite strong I see him as the better option. CONVERTI is a bit exposed to be coming from 2 Miles. I see QIANSHAN LEADER as a bit underraced this year
and after that you are getting into the unfanciable. This
race should go to a fancied horse and SHOEGAZER has
the strongest profile for me.



FONTWELL 2.50

3663 Novices´ Chase (CLASS 4)
(5yo+ 0-115) 2m6f

13/8 City Heights, 7/4 Baren De Doc,
9/4 Chapel Flowers, 33/1 Tchang Goon.

Complicated Novice Chase. There has been 185
similar races in April. I have big problems with a
horse like BAREN DE DOC being beaten by 32
lengths just 4 days ago. There were 10 winners
who ran within the past week. Those who were
not 1st or 2nd last time were just 2-62 and none
were beaten as far as him. Given the choice of
him or CHAPEL FLOWERS his stablemate I am
more drawn to CHAPEL FLOWERS. The others
have no Chase form. TCHANG GOON looks a
poor option with an absence no hurdler had in
the 185 races. I would argue the strongest bet
in the race is CITY HEIGHTS. If you look at all
8 year olds coming from Handicap Hurdles they
score well. Those who were 1-2-3 last time out
with 9-12 career runs like him had a 3-3 record
and that included the 2008 winner of this race.
Because of that I see CITY HEIGHTS as strong
and the most likely winner despite no chasing
form. I think CITY HEIGHTS should win this.


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B E V E R L E Y


The 2pm at Beverley is a 3yo claimer over 5f. These races
are rare at this time of year. There are so few of them that angles are futile. All I can say is MEDIA JURY looks too inferior on ratings. I cant find colt like FINAL OVATION coming from a 5f maiden. No male like CAMACHO FLYER
won first time out. I would prefer the horses that had run
a few times this year. Those that had run this year all had
form in at least a Class 4 race and MAGENTA STRAIT is
lacking that backclass. I prefer MICKY´S KNOCK OFF in
this race and think he is the most likely winner.


BEVERLEY 2.30

Get Married At Beverley Racecourse Handicap
(CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85) 1m4f16y

11/4 Sworn Tigress, 5/1 Deauville Flyer, 7/1 Southern Regent 7/1 Taaresh, 15/2 Kames Park, 8/1 Eseej, 8/1 The Oil Magnate 9/1 Haljaferia, 33/1 Dalhaan, 50/1 Amazing Blue Sky.

This is a 12f 0-80 Handicap and we have 112 similar races.
SWORN TIGRESS is owned by Alex Ferguson. This is a
decent enough mare but it's asking a lot for her to win as
its a step up in trip off a career high mark. She has won 3
handicaps off 46 52 and 52. She then lost off 72 last time
much as there were excuses but that was a 0-68 handicap
and now she runs off 77 and faces a 0-80 handicap. The
112 similar races show Fillies that ran in the last 10 weeks coming up from 10f or less as SWORN TIGRESS scoring
a weak 1-37 record and that sole winner ran within 4 days.
She's not run in a Month and its not an impressive profile.

I dont think AMAZING BLUE SKY has done enough. I'd
see DALHAAN as absent too long. SOUTHERN REGENT is 9 and although hard to read there were only two winners aged 9 in the 112 races and neither of those had 1-2 runs in
that season. He is unconvincing. THE OIL MAGNATE has
been off too long and I cant find any older horse winning
when absent that long from a 3yo handicap at any trip in
April. DEAUVILLE FLYER is a 4yo seasonal debutant who
is coming down from 15f. Horses aged 4 doing that with 7
or more runs were just 1-37 and that winner was a filly and
there is no horse like him winning in the 112 races.

SHORTLIST

KAMES PARK has a reasonably solid profile and looks a
horse I should shortlist. ESEEJ also has a strong profile. I am worried that he is 5-25 on sand and 0-10 on Grass as I'd backed him last week at Pontefract knowing that could be a problem. He probably went off too fast that day but there is always a doubt about his sort of turf. That said 12f here on a right handed track could suit him and he is most likely to be leading around the bend so I would want him on my side. TAARESH is also worth considering. HALJAFERIA comes from a 3yo handicap which isnt a problem and has been well backed this morning.

SELECTION

I would be inclined to bet 2 horses in this race at 12/1.

ESEEJ 12/1
HALJAFERIA 7/1

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The Maiden at 3pm doesnt interest me. I would insist on a
3 year old. Ideal profile would be 1 career run last year but none have that profile. WULFRIDA has to be considered
as her trainer is strong and he has ran 4 horses in this race and they finished W W 2 W. She may be the token choice.



I am leaving the 3yo Handicaps alone. I dont know whether
It's my lack of understanding in these races or whether they are not good trends races or whether improvement that 3yo's can have at this time of year trumps any statistical angles or not but I never get a great profile in these races and don't feel I read them well enough. They look too dangerous and risky.


BEVERLEY 5.15

Celebrate Your Birthday At Beverley Fillies´ Handicap
(CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-70) 1m1f207y

4/1 Love In The West, 5/1 Sceilin, 11/2 Light Dubai,
13/2 Sudden Impulse, 13/2 Tomintoul Star, 8/1 Kataragama
10/1 Chichen Daawe, 12/1 Dispol Diva, 14/1 Boa, 16/1 Gheed
20/1 Tres Froide.

* This is a Fillies handicap over an extended 9f
* Beverley has had 13 renewals of this race
* There has only been 22 similar races elsewhere
* Horses from 8f or shorter had a 1-54 record in this race
* In 22 similar races they had a 2-89 record
* 4 year olds doing that were just 1-57
* LIGHT DUBAI fails that and looks vulnerable
* Horses from Maidens won 2 races
* Only 1 horse failed to win and he was a 5 year old
* KATARAGAMA doesnt appeal with 3 runs from a maiden
* TOMINTOUL STAR also looks vulnerable from a maiden
* LOVE IN THE WEST is a 4yo debutant
* 4yo debutants with 3 or more runs won 5 races
* None dropped from 11f or more as she does
* That wouldn't make her a negative but none were like her
* CHICHEN DAAWE has bigger issues coming from 14f
* She looks opposable
* DISPOL DIVA is a 4yo with 1-2 runs this year
* There were 4 winners of this race like her
* All 4 were slightly less exposed
* They all just had more recent runs as well
* None came from 12f either as she does
* There are obvious worries with her profile
* SCEILIN is hard to read as a 6yo debutant
* Last years winner was a 7yo debutant so she's fine
* All her wins have come later in the year though
* She has won the same Bath race in June twice
* It would worry me she is slowly being aimed there
* TRES FROIDE is another debutant
* There's been 1 winner like her but the absence is a worry
* Look at her trainer Nigel Tinkler
* His complete record since 1994 is this
* His seasonal debutant horses on grass are 0-133
* Thats any month any distance any class
* Since 1994 he has never had one win
* SUDDEN IMPULSE is a 9yo winning a seller last time
* None of the 22 winners were aged 8 or more
* None came from a selling race either
* Its probably asking too much from her down in trip
* Especially when she is drawn in stall 1
* Since 2005 there has been 65 handicaps here
* Thats 65 handicaps with 9 + runners
* Stall 1 had a 1-55 record in these races
* BOA comes from a good trial race at Beverley
* She is unusual on profile as a lightly raced 5yo
* There hasnt been any winners like her
* Very few have tried like her though
* I'd keep her on side but the stableforms a worry
* GHEED is a similar type as well
* Again she is hard to read as a lightly raced 5yo

SELECTION

TOMINTOUL STAR Each Way

Off a mark of 55 she looks well treated to me when
she split 3 year olds in a maiden last time out giving
them 20lbs in weight. She has yet to show her form
on Grass but she doesnt look sand bred and there
is no obvious reason why she shouldnt be just as
good as she is on grass. I like her best.

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