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2 Mentions

Royal Ascot opens it's meeting with a top class card
and it should be fascinating all week there. I have five
Ascot previews today. I have done a bit at Thirsk but
it looks easier at Ascot than it does there. With these
Championship races I don't see my opinion as better
than others and without a statistical angle that helps
me seperate these horses and with a settled market It
is not really a card where I could have an account bet.


Looking at what the EMail offers us today I would be
keen on NICCONI in the Kings Stand Stakes at 3.05pm.
I can't pretend I know much about Australian form or
how good the horse is but I see weakness in all of his
rivals and feel NICCONI has to be my best Ascot bet.

One a day of Group 1 races its a bit underwhelming to
bet in a 7 runner handicap at Brighton but statistically
I am strongly pushed towards the 6.30pm race as there
are some powerful looking negatives in the race and it
has to be a race to consider a bet in. My angles might
not reward me but they are clearly showing me just 2
potential winners. BOOKIESINDEX BOY stands out
to me as the best profile by some way and looks one
to bet around 5/1 with a saver on Bobs Dreamflight.

Todays Suggestions

Ascot 3.05 - NICCONI 3/1 Win Bet

Brighton 6.30

BOOKIESINDEX BOY 5/1 Win Bet

Bob's Dreamflight 4/1 (Saver)

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G


There wasn't a message yesterday. I had planned a very
short one but a non runner killed it. I hardly ever do the
Monday before Ascot as the Royal meeting takes a long
time to prepare for. Ascot is always a busy week. There
will be some races I have no chance in so plan to ignore
these races and look at the supporting cards. I will target certain races I feel I have an edge in and a good record in but there wont be blanket Ascot coverage as I want to go where the best chances of winners are wherever they are.

Starting with ASCOT today and 5 previews. Then over to
THIRSK for a shorter run through of a few races and after
that a few quick words at Brighton in a race I like at 6.30pm.



ASCOT 2.30

Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1)
(CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m

13/8 Goldikova, 3/1 Paco Boy, 7/2 Rip Van Winkle
14/1 Dalghar, 16/1 Ouqba, 16/1 Zacinto, 50/1 Calming Influence 66/1 Cat Junior, 66/1 Dream Eater, 66/1 Pipedreamer.

The Queen Anne Stakes is a Group 1 race over a mile.
The main isue is whether this really is a 3 horse race as
GOLDIKOVA - RIP VAN WINKLE and PACO BOY all dominate the betting. There are some issues all three of these face. With RIP VAN WINKLE I don't see a major problem being a 4yo debutant. Horses aged 4 certainly have the best record in this race and the 1994 1997 2006 winners were all 4yo debutants. The problem has to be the fact he has late season targets and Aidan O'brien is publically saying he is concerned about fitness and that the horse may not be at his best. GOLDIKOVA is a mare and I suppose the strongest argument about her aside from the fact she had a hard race last time is the fact the last female to win this was in 1956 when Anthony Eden was Prime Minister and that's a worry. PACO BOY has a serious chance but is reported to have missed work and this is a much harder race than last years renewal which he won. Lockinge winners also underperform here. This is a very tight race and I don't see a statistical edge. The race rarely goes to a horse from a 7f race and none have won this from a 7f race this season so DALGHAR has a lot to prove. I looked at 4 year olds like OUQBA who ran in the Lockinge last time and they score well but none of them were as exposed as he is. ZACINTO was beaten 38 lengths last time and no horse like him overcame that. I don't see a horse with a good enough profile to threaten the 3 main runners. My gut feeling is GOLDIKOVA will win but its no more than that and not a race for angles.

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ASCOT 3.05

King´s Stand Stakes
(British Leg of The Global Sprint Challenge)
(Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 5f

3/1 Nicconi, 100/30 Kingsgate Native, 8/1 Equiano
8/1 Total Gallery, 9/1 Gold Trail, 10/1 Markab, 12/1 Borderlescott 20/1 Amour Propre, 25/1 Mister Manannan, 25/1 Spin Cycle 33/1 Blue Jack, 66/1 Bould Mover.


* This is a Group 1 sprint over 5f
* There has been 20 renewals since 1990

The Australians are generally accepted as the fastest
sprinters in the world and have dominated this race in
recent years. They are represented by both NICCONI
and GOLD TRAIL today. It will take a quality horse to
wrestle this from the Australians. I dont see many that
can do that. MISTER MANANNAN is the only 3yo in
the race and looks out of his depth. I went back to 1979
and found no winners aged 8 or more which puts me off
BORDERLESCOTT. With MARKAB it would worry me
that he has never run at 5f in his life before so is he now
about to beat the best sprinters in Australia having not
run at the distance before. He might do but its a serious
worry and he's hardly young aged 7. BLUE JACK hasn't
got the form in the book. You can argue the strongest of
the British runners is KINGSGATE NATIVE. I tipped him
to win the Temple Stakes. He was impressive and I could
not put anyone off betting him. What worries me though
is that he has ran just once this season. The last horse to win this race with just 1 run that season managed it only in a photo way back in 1989 (Indian Ridge) and I see that as a big disadvantage. KINGSGATE NATIVE fails that
as does AMOUR PROPRE. With TOTAL GALLERY and
SPIN CYCLE both beaten behind KINGSGATE NATIVE
last time anyway as was EQUIANO I do not see a horse
with a great profile to take on the Australians and I'd be
staying with those. GOLD TRAIL is a potential winner
but has very little form at 5f and I see NICCONI as more
likely to win. I know very little about Australian form as
few do but NICCONI has won the same race that all the
past Australian winners of this race have done and the
horse is clearly top class and I dont see an alternative.

SELECTION - NICCONI

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ASCOT 3.50

St James´s Palace Stakes (Group 1)
(Entire Colts) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m

2/1 Canford Cliffs, 5/2 Makfi, 11/2 Siyouni, 6/1 Steinbeck
7/1 Dick Turpin, 16/1 Noble´s Promise, 50/1 Beethoven
50/1 Hearts Of Fire, 200/1 Encompassing.

This is a Group 1 race for colts over 8f. Again not a race
where I see a great statistical edge. The race has few big
price shocks over the years and I wouldn't be looking at
a suprise winner. Three of the 9 runners look outclassed
and I would not want NOBLE´S PROMISE down in trip.
It may be a 5 horse race. MAKFI beat CANFORD CLIFFS
in the Guineas. Because CANFORD CLIFFS has come out
and won an Irish Guineas I would just prefer him as most
past winners had run more than once this season. There's
the option of STEINBECK each way as he badly needed
the run when behind Canford Cliffs in Ireland but I think
it's asking a lot for him to improve so much from that run
when he has just 1 run this year and only 3 runs. If there
is a bet each way it could be DICK TURPIN or SIYOUNI.
There is a good case for SIYOUNI who was favouite for
the French Guineas but never got a run after suffering a
bit of interference. In the same race DICK TURPIN came
second and having already beaten Canford Cliffs twice it
is an easy argument to make that he is overpriced. These
two horses are surely better value than the favourites so
I would suggest a split stake bet to exploit this.


SELECTION

SIYOUNI Win Bet 6/1
DICK TURPIN Place Bet 11/8

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ASCOT 4.25

Coventry Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 6f

5/2 Strong Suit, 7/2 Zoffany, 4/1 Samuel Morse, 9/2 Elzaam
14/1 Sheer Courage, 20/1 Klammer, 25/1 Galtymore Lad
25/1 Roayh, 33/1 Planet Waves, 50/1 Amwell Pinot
50/1 Chiswick Bey, 50/1 Move In Time, 100/1 Mullins Way.

The Coventry Stakes is over 6f for 2 year olds. It's shaping up into a 4 horse race according to the betting. Given there are so few shocks in that race it is a reasonable assumption as there are few others I could bet. SHEER COURAGE has downgraded stables after 2 runs. GALTYMORE LAD looks exposed as no past winner in decades had 4 or more runs before winning. I think there are 4 horses that look stronger. It would bother me that SAMUEL MORSE comes from a 5f race with 2 career starts. Almost all winners that came from a 5f race did it with 1 career start. He has two and although 1 past winner managed that he did that with a long absence in a poor renewal and having 2 runs coming up in trip does suggest to me he will have less improvement than a horse whose ran just once and most renewals of this race suggest the same. He is also the only runner in this race that has a chance that has to come up in trip so SAMUEL MORSE is opposed. ZOFFANY his stablemate has to be respected as well. ELZAAM looks a potential each way bet and was so impressive winning his maiden but STRONG SUIT also won his maiden well and the 2nd 3rd and 5th have all come out
and won since and he clearly has the leading chance.

SELECTION

It's easy to go for an each way bet on obvious horses
like Elzaam or Zoffany. I think STRONG SUIT may be
the winner though and although only a 5/2 chance I'd
argue he was the best bet each way around that price.


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ASCOT 5.00

Ascot Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-95) 2m4f

9/2 Ghimaar, 7/1 Junior, 9/1 Perfect Shot, 10/1 Woolfall Treasure 12/1 Dayia, Elyaadi, 12/1 Rajik, Som Tala, 12/1 Tyrrells Wood 14/1 Aaim To Prosper, 14/1 Sleepy Hollow, 16/1 Callisto Moon 20/1 Rangefinder, 25/1 Enjoy The Moment, 33/1 Colloquial 40/1 Lucky Punt, 50/1 Mister Green, 50/1 Unleashed 66/1 Bon Spiel, 66/1 Ocean´s Minstrel.

* This is a Marathon Handicap over 2m 4f
* Always a hard race that often produces a shock

Just looking for a shortlist of viable options in this race. I want a Male horse as fillies are 1-53 in this race and I'd see them as disadvantaged. I would want a horse that is coming from 13f or longer last time. Only 1 of the last 21 winners came from 12f or under. I would want to avoid all horses aged 9 or more as none won in the recent past. I would avoid horses that have ran in Group races before as almost none of the past winners did. Horses who are absent 7 weeks or more with 9 or more runs are 0-67 and I would only consider the very lightly raced horses with an absence. I would be worried about exposed horses in this race with 21 or more career starts. Only 3 of the past 21 winners were exposed and none finished unplaced on
their latest start. There were 4 year olds that came from a
14f race but they all had at least 3 runs that season and
none had 13 or more career runs and none had a recent
run which puts me off PERFECT SHOT. There are three
horses in the race surviving these angles and shortlisted.

SHORTLIST

JUNIOR -AAIM TO PROSPER -GHIMAAR

I would have to raise a question mark as to whether
GHIMAAR stays this far from a sire who has never
bred a winner over 2m 1f or more yet. I prefer the 2
other horses and would stake it like this

JUNIOR Win Bet 7/1

Saver on Aaim To Prosper 3/1 to Place



ASCOT 5.35

Not doing the last at Ascot but feel the most
likely winner has to be METROPOLITAN MAN.


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T H I R S K


The obvious question in Ascot week is how much time
should be sensibly spent at Thirsk with massive fields
when you could spend that time looking at Ascot and
other cards and the answer should be simple. It's not a
great card and it doesn't deserves hours of wasted work.


The Seller at 2.15pm for 2 year olds looks lethal. I think
the strongest runner is probably THAKEHAM mainly
as his very recent run gives him an edge but we aren't
talking dominant profiles and any of half a dozen could
win. I just felt something had to come out best and his
recent run helps him have the best profile. Not saying
he will win but I'd have THAKEHAM as favourite and
would rather bet him at his price than anything else.


The 3.25pm is a difficult 12f handicap. There are 261 of
these races in June. I passed BERGONZI as "fine" but
he is exposed and has just 1 run this year and although
I found winners like him elsewhere Thirsk has had 29 of
these races and few of these won with one run this year
and none as exposed as he is so I'd see him as no better
than "Ok". DESTINYS DREAM wouldnt be for me. She
won last time as an exposed mare and without a run in
3 weeks since that win not to mention a career high mark
I'd be against her and no similar horse won. Another filly
winning last time was HEL´S ANGEL. To have a profile I
would be happy with she would want either a few runs
less or more runs that season. HIGH AMBITION looks a
bit unsafe as an unexposed 7yo with 1 run this season.
I thought LYRA´S DAEMON looked a positive and had
as good a chance as any in the race.


The 4.05pm is a 0-70 handicap over 7f. There are 271 races
like this in June. I wasn't too impressed with TAWZEEA in
this. His profile was not good enough for me to overlook a
draw in stall 1 which I feel is hard to overcome. Fillies aged 3 had a weak 2-94 record and CHUSHKA is drawn in stall 2 and I wouldn't see enough in her profile for me to ignore her draw. SPIN AGAIN comes out badly and is hurt by both his long absence and a step up in distance. JUST THE TONIC is a 3yo filly. We know they are 2-94 and those that had 9 or more career runs were 0-39 so she wouldn't be my 1st choice. CLUMBER PLACE comes out badly beaten too far last time for a 4yo filly with a recent run. PETER´S GIFT has a shaky profile as a 4yo up in distance and DARCEY is also weak for similar reasons. EASTERN HILLS comes out badly. I would see HE´S A HUMBUG as struggling a little statistically but not completely out of it. SPAVENTO looks weak. I respect NACHO LIBRE and nearly shortlisted him but he was not quite right and I'd need to turn a blind eye to some things about his profile. In the end I shortlisted these 3 horses.

GLENRIDDING - Potential winner but no better than Good
SILLY GILLY - Certainly shortlistable at 20/1+
TOBY TYLER - Good profile at 16/1+

I dont have a strong opinion. Think it's just on the tough
side. I'd be more inclined to throw a small stake split on a couple of big priced horses in the shortlist.


The 4.40pm is also a 7f handicap and is division 2 of the
previous race. This was a bit more complicated. I ran all
the profiles in the race and came to a shortlist and these
include IMPERIAL DJAY - SOTO - CROCODILE BAY.

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BRIGHTON 6.30

Leisure Boxer Handicap (CLASS 6) (3yo+ 0-60) 5f59y

100/30 Multahab, 4/1 Best One, Spic ´n Span 9/2 Bobs Dreamflight 9/2 Bookiesindex Boy, 12/1 Caribbean Coral, 33/1 Joan´s Legacy.

* This is a 5f Handicap for 0-60 rated horses
* There are 143 similar races in June
* Horses with 1 run this season were 7-181
* None were aged 11 like MULTAHAB
* I would have to oppose him at his age
* Especially with 1 run this year and no backclass
* In 143 races I looked at horses with limited backclass
* There were 57 winners that had never run beyond Class 4
* None were aged 8 or more like MULTAHAB
* I think he is vulnerable in this race
* I looked at horses aged 9 or more
* Those with 1-2-3-4-5 runs this season were 2-78
* Those beaten more than 4 lengths last time were 0-52
* CARIBBEAN CORAL fails that and is also 11
* He is a bit too old for me and underraced
* JOAN´S LEGACY is a 3yo filly
* Fillies aged 3 can win but score badly
* Those that ran within 2 weeks were 0-59
* SPIC N SPAN is exposed absent 89 days
* No exposed horse won absent more than 10 weeks
* There were 2 winners absent more than 7 weeks
* None were aged 5 like him and both had more backclass
* Those coming from 5f races were 0-57
* SPIC N SPAN also fails that
* SPIC N SPAN lacks the backclass and looks wrong
* He is also 0-18 on Turf

SHORTLIST

* BEST ONE is probably worth shortlisting
* He has the weakest profile of the 3 on my shortlist
* Exposed horses aged 6 or more from 6f races
* No form in Class 3 or higher before
* There was a 0-29 record with horses of that profile
* BOBS DREAMFLIGHT has an acceptable profile
* BOOKIESINDEX BOY has a strong profile
* His main issue could be his 0-24 record on Grass
* He is hard to read and hard to trust

SELECTION

Two runners stand out to me

Win Bet BOOKIESINDEX BOY 5/1 +
Saver BOBS DREAMFLIGHT 4/1

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