Not much more to add this morning from last nights Mail.

Loughanelteen (25/1-12/1) and Ardent Scout (20/1) Should both be Backed.

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ARDENT SCOUT 20/1 and Loughanelteen 12/1 run this weekend and are the Only 2 horses that will represent us. The work has been done, I am not sure how likely it is that we can get a winner at 20/1 this weekend but the selections are based on sound judgement, we have got in early and secured some value and I don't see why one of these could not win for us. I am not going with an Account Bet as there is not much point and you should be on them both already and I think they are sound bets with excellent chances. Thinking about them overnight I think that while ARDENT SCOUT has less to beat numerically and in a race where you can identify more "negatives" about the opposition I have a sneaking suspicion that LOUGHANELTEEN will prove to be the better of the 2 bets. With ARDENT SCOUT You can get 20/1 this morning and that has to be some sort of value. I am confident about the reasons why the Welsh National horses are going to struggle but I am not certain and I hope that analysis does not come back to Haunt me. I Have to bet him at about 20/1 though . With the Ladbroke I Did not make LOUGHANELTEEN an account bet at 25/1 as I was not sure it would run ,and it is hard enough to assess horses running in England without thinking you can do it with Irish runners at Irish tracks but I think we have latched onto a Live runner. Most of you have some 25/1 and 20/1 and several have 16/1 and the horse is now a 12/1 chance and "Napped" in the Racing Post. I Think he has an outstanding chance and I still feel 12/1 is a big price about him much as you should all be on at bigger prices. We have 4 places available and a lightly raced improving horse off a featherweight and that's what you need. I Don't think we have done anything wrong at all with LOUGHANELTEEN and I hope he wins and I make him my best bet of the weekend with ARDENT SCOUT the Next Best option. Had LOUGHANELTEEN been generally 16/1 and 20/1 this morning I would have made him an account bet .

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Haydock 1:40 Peter Marsh Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Class A) Grade 2 (5yo+) 3m GOOD

10/11 Kingscliff, 3/1 Horus, 6/1 Artic Jack, 8/1 You're Agoodun, 10/1 Kingsmark, 25/1 Ebony Light


Selection - HORUS

This is often a bitterly disappointing small field and this year is no different. Because Gold Cup 2nd Favourite KINGSCLIFF Runs many have been scared away and there are only 3 relevant statistics. Coincidently the favourite Fails All 3 of the stats and every other runner passes at least 2 of them. That said Whilst I would not take a short price about him I would not want to bet against him with only 6 probable runners and no each way value.

Statistics

1) 8 of the Last 10 winners Carried 11st 2lbs or Less - The Only 2 that did not were in 1996 (Scotton Banks 15/8f ) where there was a Tiny Field and Both the Favourite and Second Favourite had over 11st 2lbs, and in 1997 (Jodami) where Half the field had over 11st 2lbs including the First 3 in the betting and the winner was a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner. Topweights do not have a great record with the only winner carrying Topweight being a Cheltenham Gold Cup Winner.

2) Try to avoid 2nd Season Chasers - Most winners (8 from 10) won this race when in at least their 3rd season Chasing. The Only 2 that did not were 2003 (Truckers Tavern) who was placed in a Gold Cup and very well handicapped, and Red Striker who has several races over fences (7 Novice Chases and 7 Handicap Chases) and was pretty experienced anyway. 8 Of the last 10 winners had at least 13 Previous starts over fences before winning.

3) Recent form is not that Important - Many past winners were beaten (some well beaten) on their previous race and you have to go back to 1998 and 1996 for horse that won their previous starts. In 1998 the winner was winning again after a years absence anyway which renders that run irrelevant statistically as he had time to recover from a hard race on his previous start. In fact the Last 9 winners were returning from absences of 28 23 42 355 56 62 9 21 and 26 days and an absence or a last time out defeat should not count against any horse.


ARCTIC JACK 6/1 - is a second season chaser "Officially" as he had 18 months off through injury . Argumentative as that may be he has only ran 10 times over fences which is below the norm for past winners. He has not raced at a trip as short as this since 2001 and when winning at Haydock recently in a slowly run 3.5 miles race he looks like he needs further than this trip. He also disappointed last time when thought to have Bounced on his 2nd run back from a long absence. His absence of 14 days hardly looks the best statistical preparation for this race.

EBONY LIGHT 25/1- will be 8lbs out of the Handicap and he is also a Second Season Chaser. He has only had 10 races over fences which is under the norm for past winners of this race. He has just won a Class C Handicap Chase before being a well beaten favourite in a Class A Chase last time out. His jockey blamed the track that day but as things stand He is a Class C winner and 8 of the last 10 winners of this race had won a Class A or B Handicap Chase before and the 2 that had not had either won a Class A or B Novice Chase which is something else EBONY LIGHT has so far failed to do. He is Wrong statistically for the race.

HORUS 3/1 - Races in the Handicap at 10st 6lbs and Passes all the relevant statistics comfortably. If you wanted to Nitpick you could say that as he has won his last race he would not meet the perfect criteria but he has Won a Class A Handicap Chase now and in his 3rd season, he has had the perfect number of previous races and there is plenty more in the tank. HORUS was 2nd to KINGSCLIFFE recently at Ascot and was beaten 17 lengths (Now 18lbs better off) and has since come out and Won the Silver Cup at Ascot. One slight reservation may be that he had a hard race that day but that was 3 weeks ago and he should be fine. He is only a few lbs higher than when Martin Pipe said he was "well handicapped" and you don't hear that often. Many will say that KINGSCLIFFE will beat HORUS again but the record of topweights in this race suggest that wont happen . Heavy ground could cause him problems but we are a long way away from that being likely and he has won on Soft ground.

KINGSCLIFF 10/11 - is as short as 5/1 Second Favourite for the Cheltenham Gold Cup and is a Class , and Unbeaten stayer that many will fancy here. That said he is statistically up against it in this race. Firstly he is a Second Season Chaser with only 4 races in his career so far, 2 of which were in Hunter Chases. Most horses that have won this have been far more experienced . He also has 11st 12lbs and that is higher than most past winners and those that have defied a weight like his were either a Gold Cup winner or in a race where every fancied horse was in the same boat. After KINGSCLIFF beat HORUS he went on and won a chase off "148" and now he faces a 12lbs rise in the weights. Robert Alner stated recently "Kingscliff seems fine and he came out of the Cheltenham race well He's been his usual self ever since and we're totally happy with him, with no problems whatsoever. He has been raised 12lbs but You're powerless to do anything about it and we were expecting something like that. One is never happy with an increase in weight, but you just have to put up with it and go on," . KINGSCLIFF is clearly a very decent horse and will not be a big price, but he is not statistically right for this race and these reasons are why he might get beaten.

KINGSMARK 10/1- Malcolm Todhunters 11 year old is set to Carry 11st 2bs and just passes the weight statistic. He is also a winner at 3 miles, and in Class A Company and at Haydock as well so he has a lot going for him. He is now in his 5th season Chasing as well, which is certainly not a problem (It has been done many times before) and he has not got a recent hard race to recover from. He has also won off a 5lbs higher mark than the "152" he races from in this race. He also has had a 4 week break and his trainer states " he needs more than four weeks between his races" so he should be fine having not been given a hard race last time . So far everything looks Rosy for the Horses chance. However , problems have set in and the horse has run badly on both his last 2 starts and on these performances he looks like he has "Gone". He attempted to win the Edward Hanmer Memorial Chase here recently in November for the 4th time but he was never going well from a long way out and he was well held when he blundered and lost his rider at the last. He was remounted to complete the course in his own time. He then went again to Haydock and got hammered in the Tommy Whittle Chase by 95 lengths. He had perfect conditions that day but it was a bitterly disappointing run. Todhunter said after the race " "He was disappointing last time but hopefully we'll find out a bit more this weekend. It was probably the combination of age (11) and just not having things in his favour. " Whilst you can win this race after a poor performance, I don't think you can after running 2 races as badly as he has just done and the Jury has to be out. You would like to see strong market confidence in the hope that he is working well again, and although he is statistically perfect he must be a huge risk the way he has been running.

YOURE AGOODUN -8/1 - is a 12 year old who have won this race before. He is set to carry a perfect 10st 9lbs and statistically he is fine. One main worry is that he has not ran since being brought down in last years Grand National . You have to also worry about the fact that he starts the year badly handicapped , 9lbs higher than his best previous winning mark, and I think these factors will get him beaten as he is now a 12 year old. That said he has a big chance on his form after a break. He has won 7 times in his career and 5 of those wins have been after absences of 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 and 7 Months off the track so clearly First time out is the best time to catch him and solely on that statistic I give him a reasonable chance.


Conclusion- HORUS (Who will be probably be bigger than his 3/1 quote) is the suggestion ahead of the Classy favourite Kingscliff who has a decent chance but who is very inexperienced in terms of chases run, and has to carry a large weight. It is a shame that there are not 8 runners which would have made Horus appeal slightly more . I Think HORUS will run with credit and prove a stiff test to the favourite.
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