No Account Bet


It never gets any easier knocking together a message on a
Friday these days. Six Meetings and 3 Grade 1 tracks and it
is impossible to cover as much as I would like. Therefore I am going to have to Cut down the detail in some previews
to a Minimum and fill the message out in other areas. The
significant rainfall came last night at Chepstow and 20mm
fell there so it will be soft. I have darted around most cards and pulled out what I can in a pretty wide ranging message.


Think I would rather have a bigger priced selection today
than a short priced one not least as my best profile is not
running at Southwell now. I've lost a couple of races today
through non runners. It was all looking straight forward an
hour ago with Totoman looking my best bet but he pulled
out and spoilt my best option. Therefore Its probably not
as good a message as it should have been for a Friday. As I
send it I feel it's failed in some way. Not so bothered now
about a main selection today. I would split your stakes and have two small win bets and an each way double on a these two horses. Its ambitious so it wont be easy to win money from these 2 horses but as replacement options they'll do.

Chepstow 6.50 - Interakt 10/1

Ascot 5.05 - Nezami 12/1

Two win singles
1 Each way double


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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G



I thought yesterdays message was very good overall. It had
a very solid start with decent afternoon business. Then the
evening business started with a winner. The only annoying
part was my selection Space Station failed to win. I use the phrase failed to win rather than got beaten as he was given a less than helpful ride by his jockey. He was held up a long way off the pace and finished best of all and the Racing Post race reviewer agrees with me that he was much better than the race showed him to be. I think he was unlucky and would have won with a good ride. Took the shine off a good mail.


THIRSK 1.30

I would have to go with CATHEDRAL SPIRIES given many of his dangers are unraced but I'd have done that in an each way double rather than a win bet.

SOUTHWELL 2.55

6/4 Gabreselassie, 4/1 The Artful Fox, 9/2 Cute N You Know It 6/1 Tucumcari, 13/2 Free Speech, 14/1 Feeling Peckish.

This is a Novice Handicap Chase over 3m and there are 55
similar races at this time of year. GABRESELASSIE has a
solid profile and I dont think I could oppose him in this.

* Horses aged 7
* Winning a Novice Handicap Chase last time
* Under 21 career runs
* Horses with that profile had a 6-11 record
* They finished W 3 W 3 W F W 3 W 5 W
* GABRESELASSIE looks the most likely winner

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THIRSK 3.10

This is an all aged maiden over 7f. If you look at the Thirsk renewal of this race it's been the fillies that out best so I think a filly is more likely. It does leave you cold to think about betting the regressive NIMUE who looks a horse to be avoiding. That said I looked at her profile with all experience she has and found a 5-7 record so I wouldn't rule her out. The race has no clear negatives from the fancied horses but all 55 similar races show no winners were like Barreq. You shouldn't be afraid of an unraced filly like Ardent. It does go against the
grain a bit but the best profile is clearly NIMUE at 7/1.

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SOUTHWELL 3.30

11/4 Winter Star, 3/1 Quedillac, 7/2 What´s Up Doc
4/1 Weststern, 9/1 Haka Dancer, 12/1 Midnite Blews.

Novice Chase and the race revolves around WINTER STAR
a 10 year old without a run in 679 days and having no Chase
experience at all. All I can say is there are 702 Novice Chases at this time of year over every distance. I looked for horses in these races coming from Hurdle races with a Break of 6 months or more. I found winners but those aged 10 or more were 0-36 so I have my doubts about him. I don't think it helps that he's exposed and has no Graded form. I would have to choose from one of the other runners. I can only guess with a motley crew of poor animals but my selection would be QUEDILLAC.



THIRSK 4.20

Stanland Handicap (CLASS 4) (3yo 0-80) 1m4f

11/4 Giants Play, 9/2 Rio Tinto, 5/1 Dubai Bounty
7/1 Tut, Baltimore Clipper, 8/1 Nave, 10/1 Hail Tiberius
16/1 Wild Rose, 20/1 Tamanaco.

* This is a 12f handicap for 3 year olds rated 0-79
* Thirsk have had 10 renewals of this race.
* There has been 129 similar races elsewhere
* I see weakness in GIANTS PLAY
* Many will fancy her from Michael Stoutes
* Fillies with 1 run that season like her were 0-20
* No fillies won in 129 races with her absence
* Fillies like her from Maidens with 3 runs were 1-30
* That winner had more runs this year and a recent run
* She may well win but no filly won like her

The choice against her is not easy. I didnt want to bet NAVE or TAMANACO with 1 run this year and an absence. For her to have been ideal WILD ROSE needed a better last run. I do not see a good case for HAIL TIBERIUS. I think one of four will win. I respect RIO TINTO but all horses from maidens in these races with 3 runs tended to be 1st or 2nd last time out so I question his profile. I have to take a Neutral view about both DUBAI BOUNTY and TUT both from all aged handicaps as no horse like them tried to win a similar race. If you look for Males from 3yo handicaps over 12f with 9 or more career runs and no previous wins you get a 4-15 record. That's the strong profile BALTIMORE CLIPPER has and I think he comes out best statistically. I would go with BALTIMORE CLIPPER 8/1 but would split that with TUT who will relish conditions.

Split Stake Bet

TUT 8/1
BALTIMORE CLIPPER 8/1

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THIRSK 4.55

9/2 Comptonspirit, 9/2 Revue Princess, 11/2 Caranbola
13/2 Flouncing, 8/1 Albero Di Giuda, 10/1 Shaluca
12/1 Clumber Place, 12/1 Darcy´s Pride, 12/1 Real Diamond
14/1 Pure Nostalgia, 20/1 Alacity, 20/1 Le Reve Royal
33/1 Lady Lube Rye, 40/1 Ensign´s Trick, 40/1 Kookie
40/1 Wrens Hope.

Initially I wasnt bothered this fillies handicap thinking it was too difficult but I got roped in. I would ignore all the horses in the race that are lightly raced this year. CARANBOLA is not for me. I looked at exposed horses from 5f races and none of them won last time and none had under 6 runs that year. This has many runners who are nearly there but not quite right for a small reason. DARCY´S PRIDE didnt do enough last time to qualify. SHALUCA and PURE NOSTALGIA fall short as 3yos
down in trip. No horse like CLUMBER PLACE came down in
trip from 8f (0-27). REAL DIAMOND looks a bit short with
an absence and 3 runs this year. REVUE PRINCESS would not
be my first choice. FLOUNCING is a 3 year from a 5f race so
although I have found 1 winner like that it was a tenuous link and I think there are better options. My two against the field are these. I'd bet one and save on the other if playing here.

COMPTONSPIRIT 7/1
ALBERO DI GIUDA 6/1

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ASCOT 5.05

Saco Serviced Apartments Handicap
(CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85) 1m

100/30 Jordaura, 7/2 Avonrose, 5/1 First Post, 5/1 Habshan
7/1 Club Tahiti, 10/1 Nezami, 12/1 Red Somerset
14/1 Compton Blue, 25/1 Officer In Command.

* This is a Mile Handicap for 0-85 rated horses
* Ascot has 10 renewals of this race
* There are 383 similar races elsewhere
* CLUB TAHITI is a filly with 1 run this season
* She comes from a Listed race and no horse managed that
* No filly dropped in trip with 1 run this season
* Coming from 11f with 1 run this year she is weak
* OFFICER IN COMMAND is out of form and hard to fancy
* Horses aged 9 or more had a weak record
* Those coming from 8f or shorter had a 4-134 record
* HABSHAN attemps to be come the 5th winner doing that
* The 4 before him all had stronger backclass
* None of them had under 4 runs this season
* None of them had his weight
* HABSHAN looks short of what is required
* RED SOMERSET was well beaten last time
* Weak profile for an older horse he is not for me
* He has not looked like winning since downgrading stables
* COMPTON BLUE is 4 and had a heavy defeat last time
* I looked at similar 4 year olds with 9 + runs
* Those without form in much higher grades won just 3 races
* None of those had just 1-2-3 runs that season
* None of the 383 winners were like COMPTON BLUE
* I dont see him as a horse with a strong profile

POSSIBLES

* AVONROSE is a 3yo filly as were 8 winners
* None had 13 or more starts (0-22) and she has 14
* She has plenty other factors in her favour
* A recent run - backclass and placing last time
* Fillies with similar profiles scored well
* It's just none had ran as many times as her before
* FIRST POST is 3 and comes from an 8f handicap
* Horses like him with form in only class 4 races were 6-46
* None actually won last time out
* Many were 2nd and 3rd and I think he is a net positive
* NEZAMI is statisticall fine
* I have found 4 similar winning 5 year olds up in distance
* JORDAURA has a good strong profile
* I didnt like his profile last time and he had excuses

SELECTION

I could go with any of my 4 shortlisted so preferences
are marginal. I'm going with NEZAMI. He is a big price
at 12/1 -14/1. His record at 8f could be the reason for
that. If you look at his 4 runs at 8f when he finished
2nd 6th 7th 7th and 4th - The 2nd place came when
he was a 2yo maiden and if he got a Mile as a 2yo I'd
not worry about it as a 5 year old. Two more abortive
tries at 8f came when badly in need of the run facing a
long absence. Another was when he was a 40/1 chance.
The last try was in a 0-100 handicap. This could be a
welcome step up in trip and I have found winners like
him. He is the least likely of my shortlist to win this
but the best price and I'll go with NEZAMI each way.

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THIRSK 5.30

* This is a 5f Handicap for Apprentice races
* I dont fancy JIGAJIG
* 3 year olds from 5f races were 0-39
* 3 year olds with 13 or more runs were 0-24
* Since 1996 in 40 races 3 year olds doing both were 0-82
* No other obvious negatives from the main runners
* I don't have a strong conclusion so just 1 negative
* Force me to pick a selection It'd be Speedy Senorita

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YORK 6.00

This 3yo handicap is too difficult to take a strong view but I did not like the profile of favourite HAYEK. I thought he was weak with 1 run this season and up in distance and found males with his profile 0-10. Throw in a difficult draw and he isnt for me. LUV U NOO doesnt have much backclass and I am sceptical about her coming up in trip as well. I'd oppose those but there's an impossible task trying to fathom out the winner.

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CHEPSTOW 6.50

European Breeders´ Fund Fillies´ Handicap
(CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-70) 7f16y

9/2 Chinese Democracy, 9/2 Via Aurelia, 6/1 Interakt
6/1 Leelu, 8/1 You´ve Been Mowed, 10/1 Ken´s Girl
10/1 Sweet Pilgrim, 12/1 Dancing Welcome 25/1 Andrasta
25/1 Out Of Nothing, 25/1 Polar Annie 25/1 Superstitious Me
33/1 Fiancee.

* This is a fillies Handicap over 7f
* Chepstow has 4 renewals of this race
* There are 49 similar races elsewhere
* I want to oppose some of the 3 year olds
* Horses aged 3 are 0-19 in this race
* In 49 races there were plenty that won
* CHINESE DEMOCRACY is 3 and comes from 6f with 16 runs
* Only 2 horses aged 3 came from a 6f race (2-32)
* Only 1 horse aged 3 had 13 or more career starts
* All 3 year olds doing these things had more backclass than her
* No 3 year old managed to come from 6f with over 13 runs
* CHINESE DEMOCRACY looks vulnerable to me
* He sire is also 0-26 when the grounds on the soft side
* CHINESE DEMOCRACY is opposed
* VIA AURELIA is a 3 year old with a shaky profile
* 3 year olds with 1-2 runs this year did win 5 races
* None of these had 4 or more runs like her (0-37)
* None of these came from a 3yo handicap like her (0-15)
* None lost by over 10 lengths last time like her (0-16)
* None had under 9st weight like her
* SWEET PILGRIM is a 3yo from a 6f race
* 3 year olds doing that had a 2-32 record
* No 3 year old managed that with under 7 career starts like her
* None managed it with under 7 runs that season
* Both horses that managed it had more backclass than her
* 3 year olds from 6f without a run in 2 weeks were 0-20
* SWEET PILGRIM looks vulnerable
* POLAR ANNIE looks unfit aged 5 with 1 run this year
* No horse aged 5 or more won with 1 run that season
* OUT OF NOTHING fails that as well and is out
* FIANCEE looks impossible to fancy
* DANCING WELCOME is an exposed 4 year old
* There were 8 winners like that in races
* All 8 horses had more backclass than she does
* None had under 5 runs that season and she has just 3
* None did absent 7 + weeks and she's not run in 126 days
* DANCING WELCOME has too much to do
* SUPERSTITIOUS ME is 4 and has 2 runs this year
* Only one 4yo won with 1-2 runs that year and 13 + runs
* That winner had backclass in Listed Grade
* SUPERSTITIOUS ME didnt achieve enough last time
* None of the 49 winners came from a 5f race
* ANDRASTA is exposed and comes from a 5f race
* She is too lightly raced this year to overcome that
* YOU´VE BEEN MOWED is an exposed 4yo from 8f
* There were 2 winners like that in 49 races
* Both had 7 + runs this year and she has only 3
* We know there were 8 exposed 4 year olds winning
* None had under 5 runs that season and she has just 3
* YOU´VE BEEN MOWED may be underraced this season
* Especially when exposed and carrying 10st
* There is also the problem with softer ground
* None of her form has come on ground this soft
* YOU´VE BEEN MOWED doesnt do it for me
* KEN'S GIRL is an exposed 6 year old
* There were 4 exposed winners aged 6 or more
* They all had more backclass than she does
* 3 of the 4 had more runs this season
* 3 of the 4 had a much more recent run
* Most of these dropped in trip as well
* Not enough evidence to make her a negative
* Overall she had an unimpressive record
* KEN'S GIRL is no better than a possible for me
* LEELU is 4 and has 1 run this season
* 2 of the 4 winners of this race had that profile
* Most were very lightly raced though
* Horses aged 4 doing it with 9 + runs won 1 race
* They had a 1-4 record in the 49 races
* That winner had Listed Class form
* LEELU hasnt been out of class 4 yet
* That just makes LEELU unsafe for me
* Horses aged 4 with 13 + runs and No form above Class 4
* There were 7 winners like that in 49 races
* None had under 4 runs that season
* LEELU just falls short for me
* She is also unproven on grass and on soft ground

SELECTION

* INTERAKT is a 3 year old down from 8f or more
* There were 6 winning 3 year olds doing that
* I think he will be fine on the ground
* I cant see a better alternative

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YORK 7.30

15/8 Les Fazzani, 7/2 Nouriya, 11/2 Copperbeech
8/1 Bikini Babe, 10/1 Acquainted, 10/1 Mudaaraah
10/1 Off Chance, 14/1 Totally Ours.

There are 52 Listed races for Fillies and Mares at this time of year. In these races horses that came from Maidens had a 1-35 record but that doesn't tell the full story as that sole winner had previously got form in Group Class. NOURIYA comes from a maiden last time after just 3 runs. I find it hard to go with her as a filly from a maiden when LES FAZZANI is a Multiple listed race winner and a 108 rated mare. She may not have her perfect conditions but I think she will beat Nouriya. Whether she will be
able to hold off COPPERBEECH I dont know. Frankie Dettori
comes up to York with this as his only ride much as he is here tomorrow. I'd frame a bet around opposing Nouriya and suggest a saver on LES FAZZZANI and a win bet on COPPERBEECH.

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CHEPSTOW 7.50

Sunshine Radio Handicap
(CLASS 5) (3yo+ 0-70) 5f16y

9/2 Matterofact, 9/2 The Jailer, 13/2 Little Edward
7/1 Captain Kallis, 10/1 Abhainn, Best One, 10/1 Lucky Leigh 10/1 Stamford Blue, Tenancy, 12/1 Lithaam, 14/1 Spic ´n Span.

This is a standard 5f Handicap. 5 years ago I was fearful of these races and rarely did them chooisng other races as the safer choice but these days I like their simplisticness and I think they are probably my favourite races now. The issue with this race is that I can offer fault with every runner in this race. I think they all have poor profiles. Remarkably the best profiles in my view came from the two outsiders.

SPIC N SPAN 25/1
LITHAM 20/1

I would suggest two win bets at big prices on this pair. It's a bit ambitious to think one will win but I can come up with good arguments against any and every other runners so feel its worth a small interest bet in what is a very open race.

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YORK 8.00

3/1 Trip The Light, 4/1 High Ambition, 4/1 Managua
5/1 Kames Park, 11/2 Porgy, 13/2 Paktolos, 20/1 Nevada Desert 25/1 King Of The Titans, 33/1 Captain Cornelius.

This is a 12f Claiming race. You have to be very careful as
Richard Fahey trains Three of the main runners. I took the
view that MANAGUA was not like any Claiming winner so
should be opposed. I wasnt drawn to HIGH AMBITION for
various reasons and he wouldnt be my choice. The outsiders
look opposable for what should be obvious reasons. I'd keep
PORGY on side. The best profile is TRIP THE LIGHT and
I will go with him. I looked at Male 5 year olds coming from 12f handicaps with 5 + runs this season and found that whilst only 2 horses had that profile they both won so I'm with him.

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