Saturday September 25th

1 Recommended Bet + Saver

Haydock 5.30

ONE SCOOP OR TWO 6/1

Win Bet

MISS BOOTYLISHES 8/1

Saver Bet



ONE SCOOP OR TWO

7/1 Hills
6/1 Ladbrokes -Corals-SJames -PPower -Boyles
6/1 Betfred -VC -Spbet -Bluesq


MISS BOOTYLISHES

10/1 Hills -PPower -VC -Spbet -Betfred -Boyles
9/1 Bet365-Skybet -Tote -Bluesq -Corals
8/1 Ladbrokes

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Next Message Tuesday

There wont be a message tomorrow and I am also going to
take Monday off as there are some horrible meetings and I
want to rest up for a short while and hopefully get a chance to look at things like the Cambridgeshire so time now for a two day break and hope to come back in the same good form.

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REVIEW OF LAST MESSAGE

Another good day yesterday as POLLYS MARK won for
us at 5/2. It looked like he had been caught on the line by
a fast finisher but we got the verdict and I'll happily take that as we have had big priced horses beaten this year at 1.01 and similar prices and whilst nobody believes these things even out over a season its nice to get one that did look like getting away from us. Either a great ride or one nice piece of luck but either way another valuable winner.

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MESSAGE THOUGHTS


Saturday's Message has just the 8 previews and these are at ASCOT (5) CHESTER (2) and HAYDOCK (1). It's a usual
type of Saturday message. Gladly forced out of races that are too impossible. Probably been too ambitions in a couple of races but overall a decent selection of puzzles to think about.

Slotting in a New paragraph today about some of the races
I have not covered and why and thats before the previews.
Not sure if that will work or not but these are added extras. Its been a very good few weeks and the plan today is to try and get a decent priced winner on an interesting days racing and try and finish the week off in style.



Personal Bets Today


ASCOT 3.40

Strange feeling but I've shortlisted 4 horses in this race that are 40/1 25/1 33/1 40/1 !!! I have taken a modest stake and backed all 4 horses on Betfair at big prices. Doubt I will win but the rewards are well worth it at the prices so I'm cheering Gallagher - Imperial Guest - Colepepper and Light From Mars !


CHESTER 4.40

I am strong in Chester Handicaps and this one looks quite an interesting one with many negatives. I fancy two horses and am on ACADEMY BLUES 10/1 as my Number 1 choice and
I am saving on CAPTAIN RAMIUS at 6/1


CHESTER 5.15

My angles insist LEGAL EAGLE has the best chance to I am
having small win bet on him around 4/1 or 9/2


HAYDOCK 5.30

This race is fascinating and I like 2 horses having done both a provisional shortlist and a finished one as well. I'm betting ONE SCOOP OR TWO who has a strong chance but saving on MISS BOOTYLISHES. I feel he had a genuine excuse for his last race and why he is the choice is down to the fact he gets weight from Miss Bootylishes yet comes from a higher class of race and I think he should be able to win this race.

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RACES NOT COVERED

Before the main previews just a mention about a few races
and horses that do not make it into a preview. I thought it
was horrendous at MARKET RASEN with far too many big
fields and best to ignore that meeting . HAYDOCK looks a
tough card as well. One of the annoying things is the draw
doesnt give any help in some of the big field races and I've only found the 5.30pm good enough to preview.


Chester 2.25 - Guessing race but Malacca Straits looks best

Haydock 2.35 - I'd have avoided Kansai Spirit and Sunny Game

Haydock 3.10 - I'd have opposed Horseradish and Valery Borzov


Chester 3.30 - I feel Alrasm will beat Fox Hunt in a matchbet

Haydock 4.55 - I shortlisted 4 horses in this race
William Van Gogh - Dabbers Ridge -Zebrano - Euston Square

Wolverhampton 5.35

There are 442 Claiming races between June and December
over a distance of both 5f and 6f since 1992. Thats a big
spreads of 7 months and 442 races over sprint distances.
Seasonal debutants like FAT BOY and EXCELLING have
a miserable 1-219 record. None like EXCELLING were 3
or were fillies. Those like FAT BOY with 7 + runs have a
0-108 record so it will be fascinating to see if he can win a race that on his ratings he really should do. I am opposing him rightly or wrongly. I see this between ELHAMRI and ABRAHAM LINCOLN. I hated ELHAMRI last time and
opposed him but I'm happy with his profile here and think
he is a good price at 10-1 and ABRAHAM LINCOLN also
has strong claims at 11/2 and I would also bet him as well.

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G


ASCOT 1.55

Deloitte Rosemary Handicap (Listed Race)
(Fillies & Mares) (CLASS 1) (3yo+ 0-110)1m

5/1 Sajjhaa, 7/1 Long Lashes, 8/1 I´m A Dreamer
10/1 Simla Sunset, 10/1 Thrill, Forest Crown, 14/1 Dance East 16/1 Aspectoflove, 20/1 Bintalwaadi, 20/1 Faithful One
20/1 Gobama, 20/1 Mistic Magic 20/1 Night Lily, 25/1 Fontley 25/1 What´s Up Pussycat 33/1 Bahati, 33/1 Perfect Silence 33/1 Please Sing 33/1 Sweet Clementine, 50/1 Victoria Sponge.

* This is a Listed Class Handicap for Fillies over 8f
* Its the only similar race at this time of year
* There has been 15 renewals of this race
* There are some strong angles in this race
* Horses aged 3 won 14 of the 15 renewals
* You want a 3 year old as older horses are 1-53
* You want a horse with under 13 career starts
* 14 of the 15 winners were lighter raced than that
* Horses with 13 + career starts had a 1-47 record
* You want at least 3 runs this season
* Horses with 1-2 runs that year were 0-19
* Horses absent 7 weeks or more struggled (1-36)
* Those that had 7 + career runs were 0-19
* The only horse to do that had 8st 6lbs
* Horses from 7f races need at least 4 runs this year
* Horses from 7f races all had less than 9st weight
* Horses with 9 + runs won 6 of the 15 races
* They all had at least 4 runs that season
* They all had form in at least Listed Class before
* They were all beaten last time out
* Horses with 9st 7lbs or more were 0-20 in this
* Horses from Handicaps won 9 renewals
* Those beaten 6 + lengths last time were 0-26

SHORTLIST

The big problem with SAJJHAA is her weight as no horse
has won this with 9st 7lbs and none came second. In fact
only 1 came 3rd and plenty were fancied. When you think
about did do you really want a filly with a Tongue Strap in
a race like this. I'm shortlisting 2 horses that finished just behind SAJJHAA. These were not beaten far and have to
be given a good chance of reversing that form.

SELECTION

Split Stake Bet

DANCE EAST 16/1
FOREST CROWN 14/1

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ASCOT 3.40

Totesport.com Challenge Cup
(Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 7f

13/2 Redford, 10/1 Axiom, Kakatosi, 10/1 Sarasota Sunshine
12/1 Side Glance, 16/1 Rulesn´regulations, 16/1 St Moritz
20/1 Citrus Star, 20/1 Noble Citizen, 20/1 Suruor, 25/1 Acrostic 25/1 Advanced, 25/1 Colepeper, Gramercy, 25/1 Imperial Guest, 25/1 Navajo Chief, Swift Gift, 25/1 Treadwell, 25/1 Wannabe King 33/1 Castles In The Air, Golden Desert, 33/1 Light From Mars 33/1 Mia´s Boy, 40/1 Gallagher, Jimmy Styles 40/1 Kyllachy Star 40/1 Lowdown, 50/1 Bonnie Charlie, 50/1 Marajaa.

* This is a 7f handicap for horses rated 0-106
* Ascot has had 18 renewals but 2 were run at other tracks
* There has been 38 Similar races at other tracks
* Horses from 6f races underperformed
* Those with 13 + career starts were 1-78
* Horses aged 4 or 5 from 6f races were 0-49
* No horse aged 7 or more came from 6f
* Horses beaten 4 + lengths over 6f last time were 0-47
* Those from 6f absent a Month won nothing
* The following horses from 6f races are all rejected
* GOLDEN DESERT -CASTLES IN THE AIR - JIMMY STYLES
* ADVANCED - GRAMERCY - LOWDOWN - BONNIE CHARLIE
* REDFORD is exposed and won a 6f handicap last time
* No past winner of this race was like him
* There was 1 similar winner in the 38 other races
* That horse didnt have a penalty and he is opposable
* In 38 races horses aged 7 or more were just 1-50
* MARAJAA looks too old
* Horses absent 7 + weeks were 2-81 in the 38 races
* Those with 13 or more career starts were 0-36
* Those aged 5 or more with that absence were 0-23
* MIA´S BOY - NOBLE CITIZEN fail that
* Horses from 3yo handicaps were 2-45
* Those that came from 7f or shorter were 0-29
* Those absent more than a Month were 0-24
* Those that won 3yo handicaps last time were 0-10
* NAVAJO CHIEF - KAKATOSI are opposed on those angles
* You dont want a 3 year old that ran in Group class before
* In 38 similar races these horses are 0-71
* TREADWELL fails that
* Horses from 8f races won 9 of the 38 races
* Those absent more than a Month were 0-43
* ST MORITZ fails that
* ACROSTIC fails that
* SIDE GLANCE fails that
* Horses from 8f races won 9 of the 38 races
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were 3-94
* None of these were aged 5 or more like ACROSTIC
* In 38 similar races Fillies have a 1-55 record
* None were aged 4 + (0-26) or had 7 + runs (0-44)
* SARASOTA SUNSHINE fails that
* I looked at 4 year olds with 13 + career starts
* Those with 1-2-3-4-5 runs that year were 1-24
* WANNABE KING fails that and isnt like that 1 winner
* That winner had more backclass than he does
* The same is said for SURUOR
* He is a similar type and unlike any winners
* KYLLACHY STAR is an exposed 4 year old
* He comes from a 7f handicap within 2 weeks
* There were winners like that but all came from better races
* Males aged 4 absent over a Month were 1-40
* RULESN´REGULATIONS fails that and looks unsafe
* AXIOM won a 7f handicap last time
* Horses doing that had a 2-32 record
* None were absent more than 2 weeks (0-18)
* There was 1 exposed horse doing like him
* He had a more recent run less weight and more runs that year
* AXIOM has problems I dont think he will overcome
* Horses aged 3 with 5 + career starts were 7-140
* Those with 1-2-3-4-5-6 runs that year were just 1-83
* Those that didnt run within 7 days were 0-82
* CITRUS STAR fails that and is opposed
* SWIFT GIFT is a 5 year old absent 42 days
* No winners like that won with his absence
* SWIFT GIFT is vulnerable with that absence

SHORTLIST

GALLAGHER 40/1
IMPERIAL GUEST 25/1
COLEPEPER 33/1
LIGHT FROM MARS 40/1

* COLEPEPER is 3 and comes from 8f
* 3 year olds doing that with 9 + runs were 2-24
* Those beaten under 6 lengths last time were 2-12
* I would not rule him out at a big price
* LIGHT FROM MARS is an exposed 5yo
* He comes from a 7f handicap and has no Group form
* Horses like that running within 4 weeks were 4-22
* Those with 8 + runs this year beaten under 10 lengths last time
* This improved his record to 4-14
* The 1992 and 2001 winners of this race had that profile
* IMPERIAL GUEST is an exposed 4 year old
* He comes from a 7f handicap within 2 weeks
* Horses with that profile had a 2-5 record in 38 races
* The 2002-2003 winners had the same profile
* GALLAGHER is 4 and has 13 + career starts
* He comes from a 7f handicap in the last fortnight
* Horses with that profile with 7 + runs this season are 4-23
* Those beaten less than 6 lengths last time are 4-17
* The 2002-2003 winners had the same profile
* The 2002 winner even came from the same Handicap as him

SELECTION

GALLAGHER 40/1
IMPERIAL GUEST 25/1
COLEPEPER 33/1
LIGHT FROM MARS 40/1

My shortlist has thrown up 4 rank outsiders. Don't know if
thats a ridiculous fluke or what's happened there !! If there is one selection then GALLAGHER at 40/1 interests me as the best option but at these prices I'd be an idiot not to have some small bets on all 4. I have decided on a pretty low stake that I'm prepared to lose in a race as vile as this and I've had small bets on all 4 of these runners on Betfair at prices that are far bigger than they should be. I doubt I will get the winner but the angles steer me this way and at these prices its not too
hard to trust them and have 4 small bets at massive prices.

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ASCOT 4.15

Queen Elizabeth II Stakes
(Sponsored By Sony)
(Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m

5/6 Makfi, 5/2 Rip Van Winkle, 7/1 Poet´s Voice
14/1 Hearts Of Fire, 16/1 Beethoven, 50/1 Bushman
66/1 Red Jazz, 100/1 Air Chief Marshal.

The Queen Elizabeth is a mouth watering contest but not a
race I can offer much in. I think MAKFI silenced plenty of
doubters in France last time and that peformance relaxes me
about her. Technically he comes out better than the others.
Past 4 year old winners like RIP VAN WINKLE had fewer
runs than he does. I feel POET´S VOICE has a good profile
and has a chance. I prefer MAKFI and think he will win and
I feel POET'S VOICE will place and I would split stakes and
bet both those things to happen which looks reasonably safe.

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CHESTER 4.40

Innospec Handicap (CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-95) 7f2y

9/2 Fishforcompliments, 11/2 Docofthebay, 11/2 Esprit De Midas 13/2 Fathsta, 7/1 Captain Ramius, 9/1 My Kingdom
10/1 Golden Shaheen 12/1 Below Zero, 12/1 Lowther
14/1 Academy Blues 16/1 Horatio Carter, 20/1 Soccerjackpot.

* This is a 0-91 handicap over 7 furlongs
* September has seen 169 similar races
* I would take out horses drawn 11-12-13
* Since 2005 Chester have 41 handicaps at 7f
* Horses drawn 9 or more had a 1-111 record
* DOCOFTHEBAY is hard to fancy from Stall 12
* BELOW ZERO is out drawn 11
* BELOW ZERO is 3 and comes from a 6f race
* 3 year olds doing that with 13 + runs were 0-39
* 3 year olds losing by 10 + lengths over 6f last time are 0-28
* BELOW ZERO is statistically weak anyway
* FATHSTA has a bad drawn in stall 10
* FATHSTA is exposed and comes from a 6f race
* Horses doing that were only 8-254
* Those that were 1-2-3-4 last time out were just 1-71
* None came from a Conditions race like him either
* Throw in a career high mark and FATHSTA looks weak
* SOCCERJACKPOT has a poor draw in stall 9
* He has not run in 114 days which hurts him
* No horse his age had that absence without Group class form
* ESPRIT DE MIDAS has drawn stall 1 but he isnt for me
* He is a 4yo that comes from a 6f race
* Horses like him aged 4 winning 6f races last time were 0-15
* Horses that were 1-2-3-4 last time over 6f had a 0-52 record
* Thats a persuasive statistic
* Horses aged 4 from 6f races and No Group class form are 3-114
* They dont score well and none had his weight
* ESPRIT DE MIDAS also has a career high mark
* I think ESPRIT DE MIDAS has to be opposed in this race
* LOWTHER was an unlucky 5th in this race last year
* He was badly hampered and also had a horrible draw last year
* Many will fancy him this year from a better draw
* Horses from 6f races like LOWTHER won 21 of the 169 races
* Those like him with 1-2 runs that season were 0-27
* Horses from 6f races with 5 or more career starts won 20 races
* Those without a run in Group Class before were 15-418
* However with 1-2-3-4 runs that season these horses were 0-66
* LOWTHER looks very underraced with 2 runs this season
* HORATIO CARTER is exposed and comes from 6f
* Horses like that without a run in 2 weeks were 2-100
* Those like HORATIO CARTER with under 9 runs that year 0-56
* HORATIO CARTER looks weak

POSSIBLES

* MY KINGDOM is an exposed 4 year old Male
* He won a 7f handicap last time out
* Horses with that profile had a 2-13 record
* Both winners had 1 more run that season
* Both winners had form in Class 2 and he doesnt
* The issue is can you turn a blind eye to these things
* Having already got 4 on the shortlist I'm going to ignore him
* FISHFORCOMPLIMENTS is an exposed 6yo from a 7f race
* Horses like that with under 8 runs this season are 7-91
* Those without a run in 2 weeks are 4-58
* None had previous Group class form as he does
* That makes him a bit unsafe for me
* None in that 4-58 record finished 1-2-3 last time out
* He did and again it adds to the uncertainty
* I still think that overall he is shortlistable
* FISHFORCOMPLIMENTS has only ever won on fast ground
* He does go on soft ground so I wouldnt use that as an excuse
* He has never won left handed either but that doesnt worry me
* The fact he is well handicapped is also a help
* Plenty of good and bad points but he's a possible

SHORTLIST

GOLDEN SHAHEEN - CAPTAIN RAMIUS -ACADEMY BLUES

* GOLDEN SHAHEEN is 3 and comes from a 7f handicap
* He lacks a run in the last 2 weeks
* Horses aged 3 with 9-12 career starts doing that were 2-25
* Those beaten less than 6 lengths last time were 2-9
* Thats a good enough profile to consider him seriously
* The 2 winners had 7 and 8 runs this season and he has just 6
* Thats the only small stat he fails so he looks a big runner
* CAPTAIN RAMIUS is 4 and comes from a 7f handicap
* Horses aged 4 doing that with 9-12 career runs were 5-41
* Those that were male with 5-6 runs that season were 4-13
* Those beaten under 6 lengths last time were 4-9
* He is a C+D winner on good to soft ground
* Strong profile and a big runner
* ACADEMY BLUES is exposed aged 5 and comes from 7f
* Horses like him with a run in 2 weeks were 6-87
* Throw out those losing by 10 + lengths last time
* Throw out those with under 8 runs that season
* Throw out those with Group Class form
* That suddenly becomes a 5-46 record
* With form on the ground and a good draw he is fine
* He has a Career high mark but no reason why he cant win
* He badly missed the break last time and ran very well

SELECTION

ACADEMY BLUES 10/1 Win Bet
CAPTAIN RAMIUS 6/1 Saver

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ASCOT 4.50

Miles & Morrison October Stakes
(Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 7f

13/8 Rainfall, 13/2 Mosqueras Romance, 15/2 Electric Feel
9/1 Blue Angel, 10/1 Carioca, 10/1 Puff, 11/1 First City
12/1 Wake Up Call, 14/1 Fleeting Echo, 14/1 Habaayib
14/1 Miss Zooter, 50/1 Lenkiewicz.

The October Stakes is a fillies Listed race over 7f for all aged horses. Whilst there has only been 9 renewals The winners of this race all fit a similar pattern which is explained below.

* All 9 winners were 3 year olds (others 0-38)
* All 9 winners had under 10 career runs (others 0-66)
* The 9 winners had 8-5-8-3-7-5-9-8-7 previous races
* No past winner lost by 6 + lengths last time (0-35)
* No past winner won last time out
* The 9 winners came from 6f-7f-8f in Class 3 or higher
* All 9 winners had 1 or 2 career wins
* No 3 year old carried a penalty in this race

SHORTLIST

* RAINFALL would be perfect without her penalty
* CARIOCA has a reasonable profile for an outsider
* ELECTRIC FEEL has a reasonable profile

SELECTION

ELECTRIC FEEL 16/1 Win Bet

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CHESTER 5.15

Advanced Insulation PLC Handicap (CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-85) 6f18y

9/2 Grissom, 11/2 Green Park, 11/2 Legal Eagle
13/2 Cape Vale, Lucky Dan, 8/1 Great Charm, 10/1 Tyfos
12/1 Tasmeem, 14/1 Coleorton Choice, 14/1 Invincible Lad
16/1 Cornus, 16/1 Duplicity, 25/1 Nadeen.

This is a 6f Handicap for 0-83 rated horses. This is quite a tight race and I dont want to waste too much time here. I'm taking a view that horses drawn in stalls 10 or higher should be opposed. I'm against the seasonal debutants. I am against certain types of horse from 5f races as well such as horses aged 8 or more doing it and those beaten 10 + lengths over 5f last time. I want to be against GRISSOM in this race. There are 147 of these 6f races
at this time of year. Look at horses that are exposed and come from 5f races. There are 14 winners doing that but those horses with under 8 runs this season had a 0-74 record and GRISSOM has just 6 runs. Horses aged 4 that are exposed and that come from 5f races were poor. Those that didnt run within 7 days are 1-57 and overall GRISSOM fell short of a good profile. I looked at all the profiles in this race and could shortlist only 4 runners.

SHORTLIST

GREEN PARK is probably shortlistable If I was in a generous mood as he isnt quite right and I think he wants a smaller field. I see TASMEEM as a strong outsider but the main concern is how will he handle the soft ground. COLEORTON CHOICE is interesting. He is almost perfect but the only niggling worry is all horses like him ran better than he did last time and finished much closer to the winner. The one horse that came out as the strongest runner and statistcally excellent is LEGAL EAGLE.

SELECTION - LEGAL EAGLE 9/2

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ASCOT 5.25

Tabac Gordon Carter Handicap (CLASS 3) (3yo+ 0-95) 2m

5/1 Keenes Day, 6/1 Aaim To Prosper, 13/2 Atlantic Tiger
13/2 Woolfall Treasure, 7/1 Colloquial, 8/1 Omokoroa
9/1 Bow To No One, 10/1 Desert Recluse, 10/1 Ermyn Lodge
10/1 Perfect Shot, 20/1 Rugell.

This is a 2m Handicap for 0-95 rated horses. There are 104 of these handicaps at this time of year. The longest the distance a race is the less I trust my angles on the flat and this might be a race for low stakes. I dont like KEENES DAY who won 44 days ago. I looked at all exposed horses like him that won last time out. None of those were absent longer than a Month and most had ran far more recently. None came from 2m races either and most had far more runs this year and I see him as vulnerable with
his absence. Horses aged 3 from 12f races were just 1-49 and that winner had Group Class form and didnt come from handicaps so I'd oppose ATLANTIC TIGER failing that. I looked at horses aged 3 well beaten last time over 14f or shorter. I found 3 horses with that profile but None like DESERT RECLUSE who is more exposed than any of them and absent far longer. If you take all horses aged 8 or more in these races you find a 4-79 record but those without a run in the past month were 1-25. That winner had more backclass than COLLOQUIAL has and more runs that season as well and I see him a vulnerable. BOW TO NO ONE is
a 4yo filly and I couldnt find one absent as long as her and she does not appeal. ERMYN LODGE has been absent too long for a 4 year old. PERFECT SHOT doesnt come out well looking a bit underraced this year for a well raced 4 year old up in distance. AAIM TO PROSPER is exposed and absent over a Month and horses with that profile were 4-97. None came from Group races like him and none came up in trip either and I can't match him to a winner. WOOLFALL TREASURE is exposed and beaten a long way over 14f last time. I found 3 winners like that but none were his age and none had his weight either and I was not happy
with his profile. In the end I shortlisted 2 horses in a messy race.

RUGELL - Not out of this despite his absence
OMOKOROA - Looks the strongest runner

SELECTION

OMOKOROA 6/1 Each Way

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HAYDOCK 5.30

Prince´s Trust Handicap (Div II of 4.55)
(CLASS 4) (3yo+ 0-80) 1m30y

7/2 Tariq Too, 6/1 Frontline Girl, 6/1 One Scoop Or Two
7/1 Exit Smiling, 9/1 Rio Cobolo, 10/1 Miss Bootylishes
10/1 Trans Sonic, 11/1 Amethyst Dawn, 12/1 Wigwam Willie
14/1 Scrapper Smith, 16/1 Bond City, 16/1 Jack Dawkins.

* This is an 8f Handicap for 0-80 rated horses
* Haydock has 16 of these handicaps in September
* Last years race was abandoned
* There are 231 similar races at other tracks

This race interests me for 2 reasons. First of all some great statistics in this Haydock race. Secondly I want to oppose a weak looking favourite and I will deal with him first.

* TARIQ TOO comes from a Maiden race as did 6 winners
* Those like him with 4-5-6 runs were 0-26
* Those that came from Maidens over 7f were 0-26
* None of these 26 came 1st or 2nd and just 3 finished 3rd

Haydock have had 16 of these Mile Handicaps and a strong
set of angles in these 16 races leads to a provisional shortlist.

* Horses with under 9 career runs were 0-43
* Horses with under 8 runs that season were 1-114
* Horses that did not run in 2 weeks had a 1-120 record
* All 16 winners ran within 18 days
* Horses that came from 7f or shorter have a 0-60 record
* There are 3 horses that pass all these statistics

PROVISIONAL SHORTLIST

* ONE SCOOP OR TWO- EXIT SMILING- AMETHYST DAWN

* TARIQ TOO is opposed for reasons given earlier
* Horses aged 6 or more from 7f or shorter were 6-176
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were 1-74
* TRANS SONIC fails that
* BOND CITY fails that
* Exposed males from 6f or shorter were 0-35
* RIO COBOLO fails that
* JACK DAWKINS has been too far out of form
* WIGWAM WILLIE is an 8 year old
* Male horses aged 8 or more have a 8-233 record
* Those with under 9 runs this season were 2-108
* Those coming from 8f handicaps were 1-52
* None were beaten more than 4 lengths last time
* WIGWAM WILLIE fails that
* Those that ran within 2 weeks were 0-23
* WIGWAM WILLIE fails that as well
* He may just lack enough runs for an 8yo
* EXIT SMILING is an 8 year old
* Male horses aged 8 or more have a 8-233 record
* Those with no form in Listed or Group class were 4-167
* Those without a run in 7 days were 1-135
* EXIT SMILING has that profile and it worries me
* WIGWAM WILLIE also fails those angles as well
* AMETHYST DAWN is an exposed 4yo filly
* She has never been out of Class 3 before
* No filly like that lost by over 10 lengths last time
* That last run puts me off her chance
* She has a career high mark as well

SHORTLIST

* SCRAPPER SMITH is similar to 1 winner
* I couldnt make him a negative so reluctantly shortlist him
* He wouldnt be my first choice though
* FRONTLINE GIRL is a 4yo filly
* She won a 8f handicap 29 days ago
* I found 2 winners but they had far more backclass
* I Looked at identical fillies like her winning last time
* I found a 0-2 record which is inconclusive
* I have to be Neutral about her as not enough like her tried
* MISS BOOTYLISHES has an acceptable profile
* Exposed Mares aged 5 from 8f handicaps
* No run in the past 2 weeks
* 9 + runs this season
* Horses with that profile had a 3-11 record
* MISS BOOTYLISHES is in with a big chance
* I think she needed her last run and will go close here

SELECTION

* ONE SCOOP OR TWO is an unexposed 4yo
* I found plenty of winners like him
* Statistically I dont have a problem with him
* He won 4 races in a row and then lost at Chester
* Has the handicapper stopped him now ?
* I felt he had a bad draw at Chester last time
* It hurt his chance and he was hampered
* It was also a better race than this and he ran well in 4th
* I think he will bounce back and win

SELECTION


ONE SCOOP OR TWO 6/1

MISS BOOTYLISHES 10/1 Saver

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