No Account Bet


* Tuesday's message will be at 2.30pm
* Tuesday's message will be for the evening racing.


Going with an evening racing message tomorrow as
I see the better options much later on and It makes
sense to delay the message time just for Tuesday and
all the analysis will be for late afternoon and evening.

Monday today and a fresh week. I went through last
week without a strong bet which was a shame but not
unexpected and the selections showed some profit on
the week. I always start the week on a Monday quite
slowly without going through all the gears and today
is no different. Not a heavy intense message but one
that will play me into the week and sometimes I have
to do it that way on a Monday. Going to suggest one
horse to bet today. She is a second favourite but I feel
she has a better profile than the favouite and although
not a great price I think she can win this race. Standard
type of selection to get us through today but tomorrow
there will be another gear used and a busier message.

One Selection

FFOS LAS 3.50 - LADY ECLAIR 7/4

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G


One of the three Saturday selections won so a small loss
on the day. I suspected I had staked it badly as we needed
two winners to get a profit and that was unlikely. Pleased
to see Lord Shanakil win as I don't like getting beaten if I tip a short price. He won and paid for Arizona John's run
a horse who never picked up at the end and ran a bit flat.
I thought the 3rd horse Boston Blue ran very well coming
off a strong pace and finising with plenty in hand. I think
he was hurt a little conceeding first run to the winner but it was a tactical race with a strong pace and the way he ran suggests to me it was one of those pace driven races where he easily could have been 1st 2nd or 3rd and in the end his 3rd place was not enough to avoid a small losing day.


Dropping Wolverhampton as usual today on the sand. The
Evening card at Windsor is a poor one and nothing that I'd
see as very helpful to you so just a short summarised piece
there. Its FFOS LAS that has the most to offer with a few
things to mention at AYR as well.


FFOS LAS 2.20


I think PIN CUSHION would be too good for this field
of maidens but she is odds on and not a horse I'd be on.


AYR 2.30

Bog standard 5f handicap. I dont see a good profile from
any of the lightweight horses in this race and feel we may
find the winner is from one of the highest 6 horses in the
weights. Weakest profile amongst these runners could be
Cutting Comments with an absence and being underraced
this year. Age and weight and lack of backclass bothers me
about Mandarin Spirit. I dont like Micky Mac's profile for
all exposed horses like him with under 5 runs that year had
much deeper backclass and his draw could have been better.
Sandwith is fine but I would have prefered another run this
year for an older horse. SPEEDY SENORITA came out as
having the best overall profile but this is a tight little race.


FFOS LAS 2.50

Owen Fuels Median Auction Maiden Stakes
(CLASS 5) (3-4yo) 1m4f

13/8 Cockney, 5/2 Woodford Belle, 4/1 First Fandango
5/1 Western Pearl, 8/1 Tweedledrum.

This is a maiden race over 12f and I agree with the view
that it is woth giving COCKNEY one more chance now
that he steps up in distance. Some of his opposition look
weak.TWEEDLEDRUM has ran just once in a claiming
race which looks a horrible sign for a filly from decent
connections and no similar winners have won maidens
like that. WOODFORD BELLE is a filly beaten a long
way in a handicap last time and I can not find any filly
overcomin that. I can not find a filly winning first time
out either as WESTERN PEARL tries. In 3yo maidens
in July over any distance if you look for 3yo fillies in
these races that come from 2yo maidens first time out
there are winners but when they race over 11f or more
there is a 0-18 record. I found the following interesting

* All Maidens run over 11f or more
* Run between June and December
* There has been 661 of these races after June each year
* 3 year old Fillies first time out struggled
* Those from 2yo maidens had a 1-67 record

That tells me it is safer to avoid WESTERN PEARL in
this race rather than to bet her. Statistically I dont have
a problem with FIRST FANDANGO who is reasonable as
a 74 rated horse from a pedestrian stable. Personally I'd
rather be with COCKNEY up in trip and probably having
the most ability in the race despite having yet to show it.



AYR 3.00

5/2 Jeannie Galloway, 4/1 Timeless Elegance, 6/1 Hairspray
8/1 Leonid Glow, 9/1 Ursula, 10/1 Feelin Foxy
10/1 Rothesay Dancer, 14/1 Requisite, 16/1 Diapason
20/1 Dametime.

This is a 0-80 Handicap for fillies over 6f. There has been
4 winners like JEANNIE GALLOWAY who dropped in trip
from a 3yo handicap but all 4 winners had at least 4 runs in that season and ran recently and she has neither and I'd see her as unsafe. TIMELESS ELEGANCE also has that statistic to overcome. HAIRSPRAY did not come out well. I looked at all horses like FEELIN FOXY that won and they all had at least 10lbs less weight and topweight hurts her chance of winning this. URSULA comes out badly. I dont have major problems with Requisite - Leonid Glow - Rothesay Dancer who won this in 2008 and Diapason. Marginal preference for Leonid Glow each way but no outstanding profiles here.




FFOS LAS 3.20

2/1 Aragall, 4/1 Fire Raiser, 11/2 Dane Cottage , Shabak Hom 13/2 Pullyourfingerout, 10/1 Sounds Of Thunder
12/1 Fame Is The Spur, 12/1 James Pollard.

Not a race I want to preview as the horse that has the
obvious chance ARAGALL is impossible to rate from a
statistical point of view having had 18 of his 20 races
in Germany. He won in England last time and my view
is there is nothing to stop him doing that again. I can
look at the other runners statistically. I would not see
FIRE RAISER as completely safe coming from a 3yo
handicap over 8f. There were winners doing that in all
similar races but they had all got deeper backclass than
he has and almost all of them had won before and he's
a maiden. DANE COTTAGE didnt appeal from a 3yo
seller. FAME IS THE SPUR comes out poorly needing
more runs this year. In the end I came away thinking it
was best left to ARAGALL and SHABAK HOM who is
probably the best of the 3 year olds against him. I see
ARAGALL as a win bet and SHABAK HOM a place bet.



FFOS LAS 3.50

O.J. Williams Heating Oil Handicap
(CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0-90)1m6f

7/4 Lady Hestia, 2/1 Lady Eclair, 6/1 Cool Strike,
10/1 Excelsior Academy, 20/1 Raincoat.

This is a staying handicap over 14f for horses rated 0-90
which looks dominated by two improving older females in
LADY ECLAIR and LADY HESTIA who have both won their last two races. I can not rule out COOL STRIKE but I would much rather be with the in form females. There is a clear winner statistically in LADY ECLAIR. She has the better profile. She has more runs this season. She has run
much more recently than Lady Hestia who may find that
a 56 day absence hurts her. LADY ECLAIR does not have
to step up in trip unlike her main rival and she also has a
bit more backclass. All these little advantages add up and
when you consider she is a better aged and consider when
older females win these races they have a far better record
with higher weights than lower weight it just points to the
best profile belonging to LADY ECLAIR who I think wins.


FFOS LAS 4.20

Dangerous to do statistically as it is all right looking at
Class 2 handicaps over a mile but hardly any had only 5
runners so its unsafe. Clearly OPUS MAXIMUS has the
strongest profile statistically mainly because he was not
beaten as far as Manassas last time and has more races
this season. Personally I think MANASAS has stronger
form despite an unusual profile and it wouldnt surprise
me if he won this. The safer bet and the statistical bet
is Opus Maximus. Personally I like MANASSAS with a
classier profile much as he is not completely unsafe.


FFOS LAS 4.50

Not bothered about a 3yo handicap for Apprentice's
but to my surprise there were 20 of these races during
July. Because CELTIC RANSOM has to drop down in
distance and has an absence I would argue the stronger
profile has to come from CATCHANOVA.




W I N D S O R S U M M A R Y

Not a great card this evening and I intend to swerve it
short of making a few quick comments. In the handicap
at 6.10pm I would not have opposed either of the main
runners GREEN LAGONDA or TRIPLE DREAM who look best placed to win that race. The Maiden at 6.40 is impossible to be confident about. I looked at horses like GRANDMAS DREAM down from a 6f Group race when female and with 2 runs and found a 1-2 record so She is clearly fine but I wouldt know if she could beat a big field of unraced and unexposed sorts. The seller for horses aged 3 and 4 at 7.10pm is unsafe statistically as so few similar races have been run but an unsafe and an unscientific scan at these show SHOOT THE POT has the strongest profile in a wide open race. No opinions in the Maiden at 7.40. In the 8f Fillies Handicap run at 8.10pm there were maiden winners like HIDDEN FIRE but none had 2 runs like her and none had her absence either so she is unsafe without looking a big negative. CIRCUS GIRL and VEGAS PALACE are in a similar position being unsafe but not negatives. I couldnt find a horse down in trip like CIRCUS PALACE when they had under 5 runs and no horse from a 2yo maiden like
VEGAS PALACE came from a 7f race. I couldnt find a winner like MY BEST BET when exposed with her weight and limited backclass. RED YARN doesn't feel right and failed the backclass test to in an open race I thought ELA GORRIE MOU had the best profile.

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