No Account Bet


I don't think I have made the case for a full bet today.
I'm getting a little impatient but I do fancy my chances
tomorrow night and the week has only just started. I'm
going to have some personal bets which for various
reasons I can't stake so it's a day for modest stakes.


At Sedgefield in the 2.50pm there is a 3 runner Novice
Chase and I want to take oppose the odds on favourite
(Ellerslie Tom) who may not be as fit as he needs to be.
Laying him is an option as is betting both the others in
the race FINANCIALREGULATOR and SCALE BANK.
Betting both at around 7/2 which will make a winner at
odds against if I get the favourite beat. I'm betting both.


At Beverley in the 6.30pm MEDICI PALACE could have
been a bet around 9/2. Tempted by an each way bet but
it is only a maiden and I can't control the price at all and I would have wanted a negative for the favourite in this race which I don't have. Despite that I think this horse is the one to be with and I plan a small each way bet on him.


There are several other horses with solid profiles that I'd
consider as well. I think SAVING GRACE (Ayr 3.15pm) is
interesting at 6/1 in a small field. LEADER OF THE LAND
also comes out with a strong profile in the 9pm too but is
shorter than I'd like. There are several short priced horses I like but don't see much point in betting them. Bottom line is I know when I have something good enough for a full bet and I know when I don't and today falls short on strength.

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T O D A Y 'S R A C I N G


Been a slow start to the week. I went with a small
mention yesterday who looked like winning after
a gamble but probably blew up in the last furlong
and faded. Expectations were not high yesterday
and for the last couple of days I have not found
much at all. You never know whether the fault is
the Racing or mine but its been a boring 2 days.


Plenty of small fields today and thats spoilt much
of it as it looks tactical and scrappy in places. The
evening card at Beverley is reasonable and I have
done a few races there. Some Ayr and FFos Las in
the afternoon but not as strong a day as I'd like.




FFOS LAS 2.30

5/4 Marlinka, 11/4 Pabusar, 4/1 Just For Leo
5/1 Uncle Dermot, 25/1 Imogen Louise

MARLINKA comes out stronger than Just For Leo mainly
as she hasd only run once and Just For Leo has had 4 runs
without winning. The unraced Pabusar might be a threat if
useful but MARLINKA is the strongest profile.

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AYR 2.40

Williamhill.com - Live World Cup Markets Handicap
(CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85) 7f50y

5/2 My Gacho, 3/1 Celtic Sultan, 9/2 Northern Fling
6/1 She´s In The Money, 10/1 Espero, 12/1 Silver Rime
14/1 Euston Square, 20/1 Stonehaugh, 25/1 Star Links.

This looks a trappy 7f handicap for horses rated 0-85. There are 482 similar races at this time of year. Starting with the negatives I am making SHE'S IN THE MONEY one based on this profile.

* 4 year old Fillies
* 9 or more career starts
* No form in Class 2 or higher
* Under 4 runs that season
* Running over 7f or shorter last time
* Horses with that profile had a 0-77 record

I would oppose SILVER RIME with 1 run this season and also
a 47 day break. I would be uncomfortable with STAR LINKS in
many ways not least down in trip and out of form. I can't find a winner like STONEHAUGH up in trip with just 1 run this season. Those like him beaten more than 10 lengths last time struggled and no horse older than 5 managed it and I see weakness in his profile. I looked at horses like ESPERO as a 4 year old dropping down in trip with 1 run this year. Horses aged 4 with that profile struggled. Those with 7 or more starts that did not place last time
had a 1-70 record and he may benefit from another race. I thought CELTIC SULTAN had a complicated profile. I looked at all horses like him exposed and up in trip and basically every winner like him ran better than he did last time and I worry if he achieved enough last time out and because of that he doesn't get on the shortlist.

EUSTON SQUARE - One similar winner but unsafe
MY GACHO - Reasonably good profile
NORTHERN FLING - Ok profile - well treated if 7f within reach


SELECTION

This issue for me is whether NORTHERN FLING will be
fit enough and able to appreciate 7f enough to beat the
fitter and more proven but less well treated MY GACHO.
Given the choice I have come down on the side of fitness
and suggest MY GACHO as the bet in this race.

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FFOS LAS 3.05

5/4 Praesepe, 11/4 Beauty Pageant, 4/1 Sheer Force
5/1 Fighting Talk, 25/1 Amends, 33/1 Masteeat, 100/1 Bahkov
100/1 Euroquip Boy.

This is a 6f maiden race for all aged horses. There are 141
of these races in May and June. I suggest one negative in
PRAESEPE but the alternatives whilst all reasonble profiles
are hard to split. My reason for opposing PRAESEPE is the
record of horses coming from 2yo maidens over 5f. In these
141 races horses doing that were 0-63 and fillies were 30 of those 63 losers. That tells me PRAESEPE has a lot to prove. I think I should try and find something to beat her. I can not rule out as many of these as I would like. SHEER FORCE is quite exposed now. I think BEAUTY PAGEANT is a better bet. She shaped very well on her debut and starting favourite that day she must have shown something. I like her best.

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AYR 3.15

Williamhill.com Greyhound Derby - Watch Online!
Fillies´ Handicap (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-70) 1m

5/6 Cheers For Thea, 11/2 Light Dubai
7/1 Whipma Whopma Gate, 10/1 Ykikamoocow
12/1 Graceful Descent, 12/1 Saving Grace
14/1 Clumber Place.

* This is a Fillies Handicap over a Mile
* There has been 83 similar races at this time of year
* Seasonal debutants aged 4 struggled (1-49)
* None were as exposed as YKIKAMOOCOW
* GRACEFUL DESCENT wouldnt appeal first time
* Not coming from a Claimer and over this distance
* CLUMBER PLACE is 4 with 1 run this season
* Those with 4 or more runs had a 0-49 record
* Those from 7f or shorter were 0-18
* CLUMBER PLACE looks opposable and a poor profile
* CHEERS FOR THEA has just won a Mile handicap
* I looked at exposed horses aged 5 or more doing that
* I found a surprisingly weak 0-10 record
* I think CHEERS FOR THEA has to be considered
* Her profile was strangely poor and I dont like her draw
* WHIPMA WHOPMA GATE does not have much backclass
* That worries me for an older horse without a recent run
* LIGHT DUBAI has a complicated profile
* She is a 4yo up in trip with a recent run
* There was 1 similar winner who was far more experienced
* I didnt find a winner like her in 83 races

SELECTION

SAVING GRACE has the strongest profile for me

* 4 year olds
* No form in Class 4 or higher
* 9 or more career runs
* Running within a month
* Coming from 8f handicaps
* 5 horses had that profile in 83 races
* They finished W W 3 3 W
* SAVING GRACE could be the one

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FFOS LAS 5.15

Davies Handicap (CLASS 5) (4yo+ 0-75) 1m6f

9/4 Benozzo Gozzoli, 5/2 Moonbeam Dancer, 4/1 Lady Eclair
5/1 Little Sark, 12/1 Stage Acclaim, Divinatore, 20/1 Pass The Port.

This is a 14f Handicap for 0-75 rated horses. There has been 220 of these races at this time of year. LADY ECLAIR is not a horse I would want as 4yo fillies with under 7 runs were 0-35 and she's had just 3 runs. PASS THE PORT may still need the run and has a poor profile. Not convinced that STAGE ACCLAIM will stay despite hurdles form over 3 miles and I didnt like his profile much
either well beaten over 12f last time. DIVINATORE looks weak as well as a 4 year old coming up from a 10f race. LITTLE SARK is hard to read but should run his race. BENOZZO GOZZOLI looks an option but did not have a brilliant profile with 1 run this year and an absence and overall I came down on the side of a 4 year old filly MOONBEAM DANCER who os unexposed and down in class with a recent run. I found 3 runners with her profile in
220 races and 2 of these won so I'm with MOONBEAM DANCER.

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B E V E R L E Y


BEVERLEY 6.30

Beverley-racecourse.co.uk Maiden Fillies´ Stakes
(CLASS 5) (3yo+) 7f100y

Evs Copper Penny, 11/2 Medici Palace, 11/2 Shaluca
7/1 Wasara, 10/1 Greeley Bright, 14/1 Red Skies
16/1 Patroller, 20/1 Zamid, 40/1 Falcon´s Tribute
50/1 Mujada.

This is a Fillies Maiden for all aged horses. There are only 20 of these races at this time of year. I'd be nervous about SHALUCA. There are just 2 winners from 2yo maidens in the 20 similar races but none had more than 1 race and none dropped in trip as she does. I'd oppose all the older horses in this race as no older horse has ever placed in this race. I dont want GREELEY BRIGHT up in trip. The two winners who won from 6f maidens both had 4 or more runs and she has just two. WASARA is hard to rate as an unraced horse but so far in this race all 12 unracd horses lost. I do like the profile of COPPER PENNY and rate her as likely to go close but she makes the market for the selection. MEDICI PLACE could well have the best profile. She has had 1 career start and ran in an 8f maiden. Horses with that profile in this race when not beaten more than 10 lengths last time had a solid
3-4 record with the 4 horses finishing W W W 2 which also
included a James Fanshawe winner in a race he has ran three
horses in and come away with a W 2 W record. The issue of
the draw has now been neutralised. MEDICI PLACE might be
drawn in stall 1 but look at recent Course and Distance races here with 9 or more runners and the winners were drawn low in stalls 2 5 6 6 1 5 1 2 4 so the old bias is not there currently. RED SKIES is a positive with the same statistic behind her but she is not from as good a stable and she was cheap and started a huge price last time. Overall MEDICI PLACE comes out strongest.

Selection - MEDICI PLACE

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BEVERLEY 7.00

Kevin Donkin Memorial Handicap
(CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85) 1m1f207y

5/2 Changing The Guard, 7/2 Taaresh, 9/2 King Fingal
5/1 Submariner, 11/2 Thunderstruck, 8/1 Snowed Under.

This is a 0-85 Handicap just short of 10f and we have 616
similar races at this time of year. I looked at horses with 1 run this year and found those aged 9 or more were 0-50 so SNOWED UNDER has plenty to prove well beaten on hisdebut and probably needing more runs. SUBMARINER is
hard to read with 2 career starts. There were winners with
2 career starts but most were seasonal debutants. The few
that won having run this season struggled and interesting
that none of them were beaten last time as he was. I think
he is unsafe. CHANGING THE GUARD has ran just once
this year and was beaten over 10 lengths. I ran his profile
in 616 races as an unexposed 4 year old from 10f handicaps
with his backclass. I found a 4-49 record so he is like some winners. You can argue the 4 winners hadn't run within the last 2 weeks as he has done and that they less weight but it is only by small ammounts and the overall impression is he has to be respected. THUNDERSTRUCK is fine but he may need a career best on grass to win. KING FINGAL is strong statistically and so is TAARESH as well. Therefore-

Negatives - Snowed Under -Submariner
Possibles - Changing The Guard - Thunderstruck,
Strong Profiles - King Fingal - Taaresh

The best profiles belong to TAARESH and KING FINGAL
and the ground just looks better for TAARESH.

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BEVERLEY 7.30

Hilary Needler Trophy (Listed Race) (Fillies)
(CLASS 1) (2yo) 5f

7/2 Dress Up, 9/2 Malpas Missile, 6/1 Inagh River
8/1 Dolly Parton, 8/1 Orchid Street, 10/1 Geesala
12/1 Lenjawi Pride, 14/1 First Class Favour , Mawjoodah
16/1 Meandmyshadow 16/1 Misty Morn, 25/1 Miserere
33/1 Azzurra Du Caprio, 33/1 Lady Royale.

* Hilary Needler Listed race for 2 year old Fillies
* This is the 17th renewal of this race since 1993
* I should start with the recent draw bias here
* These were winning stalls in recent races with 10 + runners
* 10 12 5 4 17 12 14 2 12 13 13 9 3 14
* Higher numbers do look the stronger but low do win
* There are a few trends worth considering
* If you have run before you must have won
* ORCHID STREET - MISERERE fail that
* MALPAS MISSILE - LADY ROYALE also fail that
* There were 4 winners who lost in their last race
* None came from 6f races like MEANDMYSHADOW
* None had just 1 career run like ORCHID STREET
* Horses beaten in 2yo maidens last time were 0-34
* ORCHID STREET - MALPAS MISSILE fail that
* LADY ROYALE also fails that
* There has been unraced winners
* MAWJOODAH is the only unraced horse though
* It's asking a lot for her to beat a big field all with runs
* No winner came from an Auction Maiden (0-20)
* FIRST CLASS FAVOUR does this and is rejected
* AZZURRA DU CAPRIO looks badly drawn in stall 1
* LENJAWI PRIDE won a sand maiden last time
* No horse came from the All Weather to win this
* DOLLY PARTON took 3 runs to win a maiden
* Only 1 past winner did that and she came from 6f
* No horse won a 5f maiden last time after 3 runs
* I see DOLLY PARTON as unsafe
* 7 horses came from a Conditions race
* None came from 6f races like MEANDMYSHADOW
* MISTY MORN may not have done enough last time
* INAGH RIVER looks shortlistable but badly drawn
* DRESS UP is statistically fine
* GEESALA is similar to the 2007 winner

SELECTION

DRESS UP 5/1

Saver on GEESALA 14/1

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BEVERLEY 8.00

Weatherbys Bloodstock Insurance
Conditions Stakes (CLASS 3) (3yo) 5f

4/6 Mister Hughie, 11/4 Coolminx,
9/2 Living It Large, 12/1 Burning Thread.

This is a 3yo conditions race over 5f. There are only 20 of
these races at this time of year so the evidence is Limited. None of these havce the profile of any of the 3 winners of this race so the picture is cloudier. I know the 20 races had two seasonal debutant winners but they both had at least 5 career runs and came from Group races and COOLMINX has only 3 runs and comes from Listed Class. No winners were beaten in maidens like BURNING THREAD. I couldn't find a winner like LIVING IT LARGE from a conditions race with 1 run this year. MISTER HUGHIE has plenty in hand on ratings and has been busier this year and I'd see him as the most likely winner because of that.

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BEVERLEY 9.00

Lucky In Love Racenight 17 June Handicap
(CLASS 5) (3yo 0-70) 1m4f16y

11/8 Leader Of The Land, 7/2 Corr Point
4/1 Meetings Man, 4/1 Palawi, 14/1 Rezwaan.

* This is a 3yo handicap over 12f
* There are 232 similar races at this time of year

I dont like REZWAAN 's profile well beaten last time over
8f with 1 run this season. I couldn't find a winner like him. CORR POINT has just won a 12f handicap with 1 run this
year. I looked at all horses with 1 run this year that came
from 3yo handicaps over 12 furlongs. There were plenty
of winners but none came 1st or 2nd last time out. These
horses all finished 3rd or worst. The horses that won 3yo
handicaps last time like him all stepped up in distance to
do that and it makes me wonder if thats down to the fact
they extract more improvement up in distance. Thats not
a safe statistic but it hints that CORR POINT might just
be vulnerable. I think I will make the above 2 negatives.

MEETINGS MAN has also just won a 3yo handicap over
12f but crucially he has ran 3 times already this season. In 232 similar races Horses doing that with 7-12 career starts had a 3-5 record and identical types won the 2005 and 2009 renewals of this race. PALAWI has a strong profile as well and I see MEETINGS MAN and PALAWI as positives. I'd argue the best profile belongs to LEADER OF THE LAND

* Horses coming from a 12f handicap
* Running within a week
* No form in races higher than Class 4 before
* Not beaten more than 10 lengths last time
* 2 or 3 runs this season
* Between 5 and 8 career starts
* LEADER OF THE LAND has that profile
* 6 other horses shared that profile
* They finished W W W 3 W W
* They had a 3-3 record in this race

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